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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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12 minutes ago, Eric Belov said:

I had to adjust this BW/TROS comp, because I added in three new theaters since the pandemic.

Thanks Eric.

 

I did mention yesterday that daily comp won't be of much use, just that final comp on final day may be of some use since F9 over indexed in Philly, so that won't be completely apt.

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46 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Thanks Eric.

 

I did mention yesterday that daily comp won't be of much use, just that final comp on final day may be of some use since F9 over indexed in Philly, so that won't be completely apt.

 

I think it is worth seeing TROS trends (maybe not exact numbers), if only to see if day and date moves prebuyers more toward the "uber fans" with the mid-range normal "late buyers" into D+ buys over theater buys if they can't get their ideal seats on day 1.

 

I'd also love to see how the weekend multiplier goes - if this looks like Mortal Combat/HBO Max opener or normal Marvel movie...it's definitely gonna give us some good info for Shang-Chi...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I think it is worth seeing TROS trends (maybe not exact numbers), if only to see if day and date moves prebuyers more toward the "uber fans" with the mid-range normal "late buyers" into D+ buys over theater buys if they can't get their ideal seats on day 1.

I think there will be enough capacity to get suitable seat during the weekend, so spillover to D+ shall be very less, though I do expect many just watching D+ regardless of getting good seats or not.

 

For such analysis, daily trend comp with CM may be of better use since they are both standalone Marvel movies.

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9 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I think it is worth seeing TROS trends (maybe not exact numbers), if only to see if day and date moves prebuyers more toward the "uber fans" with the mid-range normal "late buyers" into D+ buys over theater buys if they can't get their ideal seats on day 1.

 

I'd also love to see how the weekend multiplier goes - if this looks like Mortal Combat/HBO Max opener or normal Marvel movie...it's definitely gonna give us some good info for Shang-Chi...

Friday sales look really good to me. Could always change late but as of now leaning towards normal Marvel movie.

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On 7/5/2021 at 10:05 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie Day City Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
Black Widow T-3 Jacksonville 6 65 11,177 1,130 52 10.11%
    Phoenix 6 54 8,942 959 40 10.72%
    Raleigh 7 48 5,935 1,492 100 25.14%
Black Widow Total     19 167 26,054 3,581 192 13.74%
Escape Room 2 T-10 Jacksonville 5 16 2,528 2 0 0.08%
    Phoenix 5 14 1,409 5 2 0.35%
    Raleigh 7 22 2,106 7 0 0.33%
Escape Room 2 Total     17 52 6,043 14 2 0.23%
Space Jam T-11 Jacksonville 5 25 4,140 47 4 1.14%
    Phoenix 5 17 2,120 34 4 1.60%
    Raleigh 7 29 3,746 69 13 1.84%
Space Jam Total     17 71 10,006 150 21 1.50%

 

Movie Day City Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
Black Widow T-2 Jacksonville 6 66 11,271 1,310 180 11.62%
    Phoenix 6 59 9,201 1,058 99 11.50%
    Raleigh 7 53 6,360 1,718 226 27.01%
Black Widow Total     19 178 26,832 4,086 505 15.23%
Escape Room 2 T-9 Jacksonville 5 16 2,528 2 0 0.08%
    Phoenix 5 13 1,333 5 0 0.38%
    Raleigh 7 22 2,106 7 0 0.33%
Escape Room 2 Total     17 51 5,967 14 0 0.23%
Space Jam T-10 Jacksonville 5 25 4,140 55 8 1.33%
    Phoenix 5 17 2,120 38 4 1.79%
    Raleigh 7 30 3,837 89 20 2.32%
Space Jam Total     17 72 10,097 182 32 1.80%

 

BW added 11 new showings in the last day.   Daily sales almost reached first day of sales today (505 to 533) while F9 had eclipsed its first day of sales 282-272.  BW also just passed my F9 final preview sales that were taken that Thu afternoon 4,086 to 3,836.

 

BW compared to F9

 

F9 T-2

Jacksonville - 481 (2.723x)

Phoenix - 580 (1.824x)

Raleigh - 669 (2.723x)

 

 

GggQZn1.png

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On 7/4/2021 at 9:37 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Black Widow MTC1

Previews - 108600/573920 1603732.00 3173 shows

Friday - 92453/809468 1233835.00 4066 shows

Saturday -  59219/848623 708309.00 4249 show

 

Day and half of data. OD PS run rate ahead of Previews at this point. 

Black Widow MTC1

Previews - 123086/621483 1803049.00 3580 shows

Friday - 114140/914070 1497629.00 4765 shows

Saturday - 72055/945040 848913.00 4909 shows

 

FYI this is of morning time today. 

 

Showtimes are increasing and I expect even bigger increase tomorrow when friday showtimes are updated in most plexes. I expect OD PS to outstrip previews PS by tomorrow end. 

I am thinking 16-18m PS based on MTC1 data. 

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By the time I wake up, should beat F9 to become biggest pre-seller since TRoS. F9 had 7.1M on THU, 7.5M FRI PS and probably 5M SAT, SUN and rest. 

 

Tracking went a bit wrong on F9 since we didn't expected MTC2 to overindex as much as it did. MTC 1 was suggesting low 7 but MTC 2 was very strong. Even a small chain like Megaplex which is big on Preview was low for previews but big for Friday.

 

Now unlike that BW MTC 1 and 2 ratios are normal and smaller chain Megaplex is doing great as well, so ratios should be closer to normal adjusted for missing Canada, Pacific chain, etc.

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5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Black Widow MTC1

Previews - 123086/621483 1803049.00 3580 shows

Friday - 114140/914070 1497629.00 4765 shows

Saturday - 72055/945040 848913.00 4909 shows

 

FYI this is of morning time today. 

 

Showtimes are increasing and I expect even bigger increase tomorrow when friday showtimes are updated in most plexes. I expect OD PS to outstrip previews PS by tomorrow end. 

I am thinking 16-18m PS based on MTC1 data. 

How can it miss 100M on 16-18M previews? Don’t preview numbers like these make it highly likely? I don’t know, so I’m asking our expert crew. 
 

I think this movie is extremely important for the movie industry’s comeback. If it can grab headlines and people believe that 100M weekends are possible again, maybe people will be less hesitant to go. 

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6 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

How can it miss 100M on 16-18M previews? Don’t preview numbers like these make it highly likely? I don’t know, so I’m asking our expert crew. 
 

I think this movie is extremely important for the movie industry’s comeback. If it can grab headlines and people believe that 100M weekends are possible again, maybe people will be less hesitant to go. 

I would expect it to hit 100 million from 16-18 million previews. But those numbers are not certain. 

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14 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

How can it miss 100M on 16-18M previews? Don’t preview numbers like these make it highly likely? I don’t know, so I’m asking our expert crew. 
 

I think this movie is extremely important for the movie industry’s comeback. If it can grab headlines and people believe that 100M weekends are possible again, maybe people will be less hesitant to go. 

 

16m-18m on presales (which includes presales for Fri, Sat [and beyond]), not previews.  Don't forget though, that huge percentage of sales are still day-of, even for Thursday.  Just keyser wasn't making any sort of extrapolation on the preview number for Thur.  Yet.

Edited by Porthos
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10 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

How can it miss 100M on 16-18M previews? Don’t preview numbers like these make it highly likely? I don’t know, so I’m asking our expert crew. 

18M will be doing 100 but 16 is bit tight. Reason being with each passing year MCU demo is turning more previews loaded, so a 16M previews will mean something around 26-27M True Friday. SAT jumps and SUN drops have been ehh recently, so something like 26-27M Friday will lead to 46-52M SAT & SUN, which will be only 88-95M.

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In other words.

 

In same release period, Homecoming was able to make 117 on 15.5M previews (7.5x) , but that was 4 years ago. MCU fandom has aged 4 years since then.

 

An year later AM2 was only able to do 76M from 11.5M (6.6X).

 

Widow will probably be around 5.75-6x.

Spoiler

Film Previews Friday % Share
Iron Man $3.50 $35.23 9.93%
Incredible Hulk $1.60 $21.47 7.45%
Iron Man 2 $7.50 $51.24 14.64%
Captain America $4.00 $25.70 15.56%
Thor $3.25 $25.48 12.75%
The Avengers $18.70 $80.81 23.14%
 
Iron Man 3 $15.60 $68.86 22.66%
Thor 2 $7.10 $31.90 22.26%
Captain America: Winter Soldier $10.30 $36.93 27.89%
GOTG $11.20 $37.85 29.59%
Avengers: Age of Ultron $27.60 $84.42 32.69%
 
Ant-Man $6.40 $22.65 28.26%
Captain America: Civil War $25.00 $75.50 33.11%
Doctor Strange $9.40 $32.59 28.85%
GOTG 2 $17.00 $56.08 30.31%
Spider-Man: Homecoming $15.40 $50.78 30.33%
Thor: Ragnarok $14.50 $46.47 31.20%
Black Panther $25.20 $75.94 33.18%
Avengers: Infinity War $39.00 $106.33 36.68%
 
Ant-Man and The Wasp $11.50 $33.73 34.10%
Captain Marvel $20.70 $61.70 33.55%
Avengers: Endgame $60.00 $157.46 38.10%
 
Spider-man: Far From Home $3.00 $36.25 8.28%
Black Widow      

 

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8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

18M will be doing 100 but 16 is bit tight. Reason being with each passing year MCU demo is turning more previews loaded, so a 16M previews will mean something around 26-27M True Friday. SAT jumps and SUN drops have been ehh recently, so something like 26-27M Friday will lead to 46-52M SAT & SUN, which will be only 88-95M.

I think 16 previews and 30 true Friday is more likely. 26-27 off of a 16 million preview would be unprecedented for a solo film, especially since 16 isn't all that huge a preview number for it to be that frontloaded. AMATW having previews on July 5 also makes it a less than ideal comp since so many people take that day off when the 4th is midweek.

Edited by Menor
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Seems like a good time for a presales breakdown.  Here's Jacksonville presales for the individual weekend days compared to F9; both taken on Tues before release.

 

Black Widow

Thur - 1310 (41.67%)

Fri - 972 (30.92%)

Sat - 584 (15.58%)

Sun - 278 (8.84%)

F9

Thur - 489 (27.12%)

Fri - 674 (37.38%)
Sat - 443 (24.57%)
Sun - 197 (10.93%)

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3 minutes ago, Menor said:

I think 16 previews and 30 true Friday is more likely. 26-27 off of a 16 million preview would be unprecedented for a solo film, especially since 16 isn't all that huge a preview number for it to be that frontloaded. AMATW having previews on July 5 also makes it a less than ideal comp since so many people take that day off.

I hope I am wrong if this turns out to open 16M THU.

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3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I hope I am wrong if this turns out to open 16M THU.

Yeah it's hard to say. I agree with you on the trend, I just think AMATW exaggerated the trend a bit due to its odd release date. I wish FFH had a normal opening so we could have that comp. 

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1 minute ago, Menor said:

Yeah it's hard to say. I agree with you on the trend, I just think AMATW exaggerated the trend a bit due to its odd release date. I wish FFH had a normal opening so we could have that comp. 

Ignoring AM2, CM also was 33.6%.

 

Lowest BW could be is perhaps 35% (29.7 if 16)

 

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I am with Menor here, expecting true fri at least 1.9x previews (previews 34.5% or less of OD) and IM 6.25+.   
 

Yes general trend of MCU becoming more preview heavy, but seems like pandemic may be deflating previews/inflating true Fri’s and IMs, and PS also pointing that way.

Edited by Lokis Legion
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2 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

I am with Menor here, expecting true fri at least 1.9x previews (previews 34.5% or less of OD) and IM 6.25+.   
 

Yes general trend of MCU becoming more preview heavy, but seems like pandemic may be deflating previews/inflating true Fri’s and IMs, and PS also pointing that way.

Actually Friday PS is one reason I am still not too sure of 30M.

 

Spoiler
13 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

MTC2 say,

 

THU

 

T-3 : 81 (for remaining 3 hours in West Coast)

TUE : 95 (+14)

WED : 123 (+28)

THU : 210 (+87) (1.7x PSm)

 

That will be $14-17.5M depending on how it goes, more likely toward higher end.

 

FRI

T-3 : 69

TUE : 87 (+18)

WED : 125 (+38)

THU : 175 (+50)

 

OD: 370 (2.1x PSm) ~$4.4M

 

26-31M depending on MTC 2 ratio (14-17%). 

 

Ofc above two are just projections.

 

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