The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[WrathOfHan]

Haven't done a BW update in a while, so let's see where it's at the day before with full showtimes up:

 

5:00 Dolby: 79/236

5:30 3D: 11/107

5:45: 3/67

6:00: 24/107

6:15: 3/40

6:30 IMAX: 45/372

6:45: 0/40

7:00: 35/107

7:15: 0/40

7:30: 0/107

7:45: 0/50

8:00 3D: 0/70

8:15: 3/40

8:30 Dolby: 118/236

8:45: 0/40

9:00 3D: 1/107

9:15: 0/67

9:30: 15/107

9:45: 0/40

10:00 IMAX: 22/372

10:15: 3/40

10:30: 3/107

Total: 365/2,499

 

Comps:

 

136% of F9 Previews (9.5M)

180% of AQP2 Previews (8.6M)

277% of F9 Previews 3 days out (19.4M)

341% of AQP2 Previews 2 days out (16.4M)

 

Sales have definitely slowed down a bit even with full showtimes. I can buy 10M with strong walkups, but that depends on tomorrow's outlook.

[charlie Jatinder]

  

40 minutes ago, Menor said:

Another Fandango meaningless stat. We already knew it will be higher than those.

Surprised why they mention those two movies. SM: HC and DS because in  pre-sales its outselling all. Because BW is outselling all but BP, CM among solo Marvel at this point of time incl GoTG2 and Thor Ragnarok.

Spoiler

Wang shared this during BP. T-2 days GoTG 2 was $6M while per our tracking BW should be $6.3M in MTC 1. CM was ahead at ~$9.5-10M.

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

UFC 264 Poirior vs McGregor Saturday 7/10

 

Jacksonville: 32/145  two shows

Phoenix: 125/343 - four shows

Raleigh: 47/93 - two shows

 

Not sure how much this affects things, if at all.

[Menor the Destroyer]

59 minutes ago, Menor said:

Black Widow MTC2

 

Thursday:

Showtimes: 4541 (+1321)

Seats Sold: 94453/591673 (+14394)

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 7092 (+1834)

Seats Sold: 89657/987314 (+20948)

 

From earlier this morning. Thursday is a bit below where I thought it would be, Friday a bit above, but no big surprises here. 

Say it adds another 27-28k until tomorrow morning, that will put it at 122k for Thursday and it will be running at about 1.5x F9. That may drop to 1.3x or so during the day and F9 I guess added about 53k until the usual late night update time (before final numbers) so add another 70k. That leaves it at 192k, with ATP of 12.5 gives about 2.4 million from MTC2, MTC1 has been much stronger so that may be at more like 4.1-4.2. So at 6.6 million for previews from the 2 MTC. AQP2 was 43% MTC ratio from the late night numbers but those were taken fairly early, so I'm expecting more like 45%. That gives 14.5-15 million. 

Edited July 7, 2021 by Menor

[druv10]

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

Say it adds another 27-28k until tomorrow morning, that will put it at 122k for Thursday and it will be running at about 1.5x F9. That may drop to 1.3x or so during the day and F9 I guess added about 53k until the usual late night update time (before final numbers) so add another 70k. That leaves it at 192k, with ATP of 12.5 gives about 2.4 million from MTC2, MTC1 has been much stronger so that may be at more like 4.1-4.2. So at 6.6 million for previews, then the MTC1/2 ratio may be about the same as AQP2 which was I think 45% from the night update (not the final numbers), which would give about 14.5-15 million previews. So going with that. 

Thanks

 

15M

30M

31M

24M

100M

 

100M will be tight with 15M previews. Hopefully Friday ends up at 32 or 33M giving some breathing room for over 100M OW crowd.

Edited July 7, 2021 by druv10

[Porthos]

16 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

UFC 264 Poirior vs McGregor Saturday 7/10

 

Jacksonville: 32/145  two shows

Phoenix: 125/343 - four shows

Raleigh: 47/93 - two shows

 

Not sure how much this affects things, if at all.

 

 

Well folks, might as well close up shop.  AOU Black Widow isn't crossing 200m 100m thanks to the Mayweather UFC fight.    

[druv10]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Well folks, might as well close up shop.  AOU Black Widow isn't crossing 200m 100m thanks to the Mayweather UFC fight.    

Lol.

 

Ultron got royally screwed by Mayweather/Pacquiao

[charlie Jatinder]

43 minutes ago, Menor said:

-SNIP-

I am hoping for getting $17M, which will need roughly $2.7M in MTC 2. I think ATP may be more like $13 since @keysersoze123 used to come at $12-12.5 without taking DBOX seats higher prices. 

So about 203K MTC 2 seats tracked needed for $17M. May be 1.7 PSm, so 119K by end of tonight is needed. If PSm is 1.6x, then 127K.

[Legion Again]

I would be pretty happy with 15.5 at this point

[Menor the Destroyer]

20 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I am hoping for getting $17M, which will need roughly $2.7M in MTC 2. I think ATP may be more like $13 since @keysersoze123 used to come at $12-12.5 without taking DBOX seats higher prices. 

So about 203K MTC 2 seats tracked needed for $17M. May be 1.7 PSm, so 119K by end of tonight is needed. If PSm is 1.6x, then 127K.

119 is possible if it has a good day. 127k is difficult. I expect 113-115k by the end of the day (112-113 at my final update, 115-117 at the actual end of the day). 

 

On the ATP point, you are right. I took 12.5 as a floor, but it will certainly be higher (because my current system, which I know gives overly low ATP, gives 12.5 right now). 

Edited July 7, 2021 by Menor

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

652

2744

23.76%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

711

2956

24.05%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3500	381	27122	12.90%	15	174

Showings added: 24

Seats added: 1060

Showings removed: 1

Seats removed: 580

 

F9 comp: 19.80M

AQP2 comp: 17.83M

TLK comp: 15.62M

 

Pretty disappointing day, even considering the big jump yesterday had. I was hoping that the gap between TLK and BW's pace would continue to close, but it has just broadened.

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

758

2744

27.62%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

805

2993

26.90%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4066	566	27899	14.57%	15	178

 

Showings added: 4

Seats added: 777

 

F9 comp: 18.78M

AQP2 comp: 16.17M

TLK comp: 15.63M

 

Pretty good day, right on pace with TLK, in equivalent theaters at least. FWIW, if it stays on that pace, then TRoS comp will be 14.46M. But nothing crazy one way or the other, so we'll see what tomorrow brings. 

[Eric Duncan]

https://deadline.com/2021/07/black-widow-box-office-opening-weekend-worldwide-projection-disney-1234787705/

 

Quote

Finally after a near 15 month wait, Marvel’s long-awaited Black Widow will debut around the world after being locked up from the pandemic, and the industry’s global weekend expectation is as high as $140M.

 

 

That’s essentially $50M from 46 material markets, save China and most of South East Asia. Among the major territories going are France, Italy, the UK, Germany, Russia, Australia, Japan, Korea, Brazil, Mexico and Spain. That number comes with an asterisk.  With advance ticket sales repping a record to date for 2021, and beating F9 on Fandango at the same period in time, Black Widow could weave between $80M-$90M in 4,100 theaters (to date in the Covid era, Universal’s F9 has been the widest domestic release with 4,179 theaters). Disney is conservatively eyeing $75M over 3-days stateside. Either gross will easily rep an opening record during the pandemic in the U.S./Canada, besting F9‘s $70M start.

 

 

 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Megaplex

 

T-2 days Thursday(107 showings): 4387(+608)/28553(+3207) in 14 theaters. $61,418 with $14 ATP

 

T-3 days Friday(145 showings): 3919(+630)/44777(+7922) in 14 theaters. $52,907 with $13.50 ATP

Black Widow Megaplex

 

T-1 day Thursday(109 showings): 4978(+591)/28847(+294) in 14 theaters. $69,692 with $14 ATP

 

T-2 days Friday(238 showings): 4754(+835)/63789(+19012) in 14 theaters. $64,179 with $13.50 ATP

 

Megaplex is going crazy with the showings on Friday. They've added 136 in the past 2 days

[keysersoze123]

On 7/6/2021 at 10:13 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Black Widow MTC1

Previews - 123086/621483 1803049.00 3580 shows

Friday - 114140/914070 1497629.00 4765 shows

Saturday - 72055/945040 848913.00 4909 shows

Black Widow MTC1 

Previews - 141757/717631 2051689.00 4383 shows

Friday - 144030/1224424 1847358.00 6973 shows

Saturday - 89750/1268567 1038785.00 7224 shows

 

Explosion in show count as expected. OD PS ahead of previews. I am thinking 16m prev/25m OD(400K MTC1)/24m Sat/19m Sunday is the lowest it can go at this point. It could go higher but let us wait and watch. 

 

 

Edited July 7, 2021 by keysersoze123

[Valonqar]

Quote

Disney is conservatively eyeing $75M over 3-days stateside. 

 

Hmmm, when they were conservatively eying 65M for the first GOTG, it opened with 90M. So conservatively eying 75M aka 10M more should translate to 10M more aka 100M OW! 

Edited July 7, 2021 by Valonqar

[excel1]

$100m is happening, cmon now, be serious for once 

[Porthos]

22 minutes ago, excel1 said:

$100m is happening, cmon now, be serious for once 

 

Nature truly is healing, everyone. 👍

[fabiopazzo2]

34 minutes ago, excel1 said:

$100m is happening, cmon now, be serious for once 

Under that is a big failure for The MCU.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

😛

 

[TalismanRing]

I wish I had tracked F9 and AQP2.  Even then not a lot of good comps with the last MCU film opening on a Tues.

I'd say walk ups not as high as LK or TS4 but higher that R rated BOP (and certainly Joker)

 

So as of today - maybe -  $14.2-15.2m range? (Mal2 to Godzilla 😅)

 

Wed 5pm (July 7th):   326/3584 = 9.09%

Black Widow Preview Comps:

$14.9m (Shazam!)
$15.21m(Godzilla)
$10.88m (H&S)
$16.88m (Lion King)  

$16.79m (Toy Story 4)

$14.32m (IT2) (R)
$8m (Joker) (R)
$14.147m (Malif 2)
$13.32 (Frozen II)
$12.3m (BOP) (R)

 

Chart under Spoiler Cut

Spoiler

 

 

NYC Local	Mon		Tues		Wed		Thur		Previews	Preview Start
Shazam!					129/2229	(Afternoon)	187/2229	(3:30pm)	$5.9m	4:00 PM
Avengers: Endgame	3948/4,736	(12am)			4,853/5493	(9pm)			$60m	6:00 PM
Aladdin			98/1242	(12pm)					$7m	6:00 PM
Godzilla 2					135/1915	(7:45pm)	204/2150	(3:30pm)	$6.3m	4:00 PM
X-Men: DP			103/942	(4pm)	209/942	(3:15pm)	272/942	(3:45pm)	$5m	6:00 PM
SLOP 2			38/771	(4pm)	43/771	(3:15pm)			$2.3m	6:00 PM
Toy Story 4			165/2049	(4pm)	233/2049	(7:40pm)			$12m	6:00 PM
SM:FFH	142/922								$2.8m	Midnights Only
The Lion King	236/3228	(6:30pm)	294/3228	(6:20pm)	444/3228	(4:30pm)	557/3228	(4:30pm)	$23m	6:00 PM
OUATIH			117/1179	(2:15pm)	159/1179	(4pm)	335/1179	(4:20pm)	$5.8m	4:00 PM
Hobbs & Shaw	60/1543	(5:20pm)			181/1543	(4pm)			$5.8m	7:00 PM
IT Part 2	147/2764	(9am)			239/2764	(7:10pm)			$10.5m	5:00 PM
Hustlers			45/512	(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)	$2.5m	6:00 PM
Downton Abbey (eps)			37/301	(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)	$2.2m	7:00 PM
Ad Astra			26/602	(4:30pm)	26/602	(4:30pm)	41/602	(4:30pm)	$1.5m	6:00 PM
Downton Abbey			31/512	(4:30pm)	39/512	(4:30pm)	52/1015	(4:30pm)	$2.1m	7:00 PM
Rambo			29/302	(4:30pm)	53/1242	(4:30pm)	58/1242	(4:30pm)	$1.3m	6:00 PM
Abominable			30/255	(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)	73/1969	(4:30pm)	$.65m	6:00 PM
Joker (-1 week)	104/2766	(9am)	172/2766	(4:30pm)			217/3536	(4pm)		4:00 PM
Joker	328/3536	(4:20pm)	399/3536	(4pm)	542/3536	(4pm)	760/3741	(3:45pm)	$13.3m	4:00 PM
Gemini Man			38/1004	(4pm)	38/1004	(4pm)	78/1004	[6:30pm]	$1.55m	7:00 PM
Adams Family		(4pm)	53/1373	(4pm)	49/1373	(4pm)			$1.25m	4:00 PM
Maleficent 2	39/1154	(4pm)	42/1154	(4pm)	53/1154	(4pm)	96/1425	[6pm]	$2.3m	7:00 PM
Zombieland 2	51/1114	(4pm)	53/1114	(4pm)	67/1177	(4pm)	95/1478	[6pm]	$2.85m	7:00 PM
Black & Blue			19/410	(4pm)	19/410	(4pm)	20/410	(4pm)	$.68m	7:00 PM
Countdown			15/511	(4pm)			19/411	(4pm)	$.52m	7:00 PM
Terminator: DF	71/1242	(4pm)	71/1242	(4pm)	76/1242	(5:30pm)	113/1242	(4pm)	$2.35m	7:00 PM
Harriet	25/512	(4pm)	25/512	(4pm)	27/512	(5:30pm)	29/512	(4pm)	$.6m	7:00 PM
Midway	20/512	(4pm)	23/512	(4pm)	22/512	(4:30pm)	27/512	(5pm)	$.925m	7:00 PM
Dr Sleep	23/510	(4pm)	28/510	(4pm)	28/510	(4:30pm)	53/512	(5pm)	$1.5m	6:00 PM
Last Christmas	12/496	(4pm)	12/496	(4pm)	12/496	(4:30pm)	16/496	(5pm)	$.575m	7:00 PM
Playing With Fire	15/654	(4pm)	15/654	(4pm)	15/654	(4:30pm)	18/654	(4pm)		4:00 PM
Ford v Ferrari	50/1152	(4pm)	48/1152	(4pm)	53/1152	(4pm)	65/1152	(5:30pm)	$2.1m	6:00 PM
Charlies Angels	18/903	(4pm)	18/903	(4pm)	18/903	(4pm)	20/903	(4pm)	$.9m	4:00 PM
Frozen	122/1824	(4pm)	169/ 2724	(4pm)	208/ 2724	(4:30pm)	304/2274	(4:30pm)	$8.5m	6:00 PM
A Beautiful Day ...	30/768	(4pm)	30/768	(4pm)	36/768	(4:30pm)	52/768	(4:30pm)	$.9m	6:00 PM
21 Bridges	26/492	(4pm)	25/492	(4pm)	30/492	(4:30pm)	44/492	(4:30pm)	$.7m	7:00 PM
Knives Out (F&S eps)	42/514	(4pm)	53/514	(4pm)	67/514	(4:30pm)	85/514	(4:30pm)	$2.03m	7:00 PM
Knives Out (Wed)	42/937	(4pm)	81/937	(5:30pm)					$1.66m	7:00 PM
Jumanji 2	72/1864	(4pm)	120/3381	(5:30pm)	141/3381	(5:30pm)	178/3381	(4pm)	$4.7m	4:00 PM
Black Christmas	22/512	(4pm)	24/512	(5:30pm)	24/512	(5:30pm)	24/512	(4pm)	$.230m	7:00 PM
Star Wars: TROS	2106/4291	(4:30pm)			2331/4547	(9pm)			$40m	6:00 PM
Cats	19/436	(4:30pm)			22/436	(5:30pm)			$.55m	7:00 PM
1917			20/512	(7pm)			36/512	(1:45pm)	$3.25m	7:00 PM
Just Mercy			20/512	(7pm)	20/512	(5pm)	20/512	(1:45pm)	$.8m	5:00 PM
Underwater			22/512	(7pm)			22/512	(1:45pm)	$.5m	7:00 PM
Like A Boss			10/514	(7pm)			13/514	(1:45pm)	$1m	7:00 PM
Doolittle	26/512	(4pm)	38/832	(9pm)	51/1285	(7pm)	67/1285	(5pm)	$.9m	5:00 PM
Bad Boys 3	46/903	(4pm)	84/1543	(9pm)	121/2018	(7pm)	246/2018	(5pm)	$6.36m	4:00 PM
The Gentlemen	22/512	(4pm)	22/512	(4pm)	26/512	(4pm)	33/512	(4pm)	$.73m	7:00 PM
Turning	15/410	(4pm)	14/410	(4pm)	14/410	(4pm)	21/410	(4pm)	$.43m	7:00 PM
Gretel & Hansel			28/602	(7pm)	29/602	(6pm)	31/602; 43/602	(4pm) (7pm)	$.235m	7:00 PM
Rhythm Nation			20/512	(7pm)	22/512	(6pm)	24/512 ; 31/512	(4pm) (7pm)	$.475m	7:00 PM
Birds Of Prey	71/1844	(5pm)	84/1844	(7:30pm)	106/1844	(7:45pm)	166/1844	(5pm)	$4m	6:00 PM
Sonic			56/771	(5pm)	93/1499	(5pm)	118/1499	(4pm)	$3m	5:00 PM
Downhill			15/410	(5pm)	15/410	(5pm)	17/410	(4pm)	$.2m	6:00 PM
Photograph			28/760	(5pm)	29/760	(5pm)	39/760	(4pm)	$.65m	5:00 PM
Call Of The Wild	15/410	(4pm)			36/1050	(4pm)	40/1050	(4pm)	$1m	6:00 PM
Brahms: The Boy II	20/510	(4pm)			24/510	(4pm)	28/510	(4pm)	$.38m	7:00 PM
Invisible Man	42/1151	(4pm)	44/1151	(4pm)	48/1151	(5pm)	70/1151	(6:30pm)		7:00 PM
Onward (Sat sneaks)	53/160	(4pm)	56/160	(4pm)	76/160	(5pm)	80/160	(6:30pm)		3pm (Sat)
Black Widow	239/3584	(5pm)			326/3584	(5pm)				5:00 PM

 

 

 

Edited July 7, 2021 by TalismanRing

[poweranimals]

So how likely is $100m OW at this point?