The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

18 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

So how likely is $100m OW at this point?

Not easy but it has a real shot.

[charlie Jatinder]

@Menor any update?

[HouseOfTheSun]

Marvel properties led the way to 100m, 150m, 200m, 250m, 300m, and 350m 

 

this weekend, It will begin that process in a pandemic world. 

[excel1]

56 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

So how likely is $100m OW at this point?

 

100% confirmed.

 

[excel1]

5 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Marvel properties led the way to 100m, 150m, 200m, 250m, 300m, and 350m 

 

this weekend, It will begin that process in a pandemic world. 

 

Batman first to 50m 

[Menor the Destroyer]

47 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@Menor any update?

It's taking some time to run but as of a couple hours ago Thursday was at 107k. Most likely it will hit around the numbers I mentioned in my previous post, 112k for the nighttime update and 116k at the actual end of day.

[keysersoze123]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Black Widow MTC1 

Previews - 141757/717631 2051689.00 4383 shows

Friday - 144030/1224424 1847358.00 6973 shows

Saturday - 89750/1268567 1038785.00 7224 shows

 

Explosion in show count as expected. OD PS ahead of previews. I am thinking 16m prev/25m OD(400K MTC1)/24m Sat/19m Sunday is the lowest it can go at this point. It could go higher but let us wait and watch. 

 

 

 

Previews are up to 156927/729313 2249510.00 4511 shows. Probably will wrap up around 160K. Let us see how the release day goes. Friday is at 162570/1234212 2059507.00 7051 shows and will probaby hit ~ 220K by end of PS.

 

Not convinced BW can double F9. Walkups are still not crazy. Still one can never say for sure. Let us hope for the best. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

My script randomly hung so I won't be able to update until tomorrow morning but Thursday seems like it will be in the expected range of 115k but Friday is now selling very slow and may only be like 107k which is barely ahead of yesterday's pace, not good at all. Not sure 100M can happen at this pace. Hopefully it picks up or something.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Alright. Guess its time to except reality. $14.5-15.5M previews are likely at this point. $27M OD.

14.5-15.5
27-28
27-29.5

21-23.5

 

89.5-96.5M

 

I had set bar for success around $80M pre F9 opening, but if something like F9 opened $70M, need it to be $90M plus at least. I will be very happy at $100M but won't complain $90-95M.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	241	25079	30879	5800	18.78%

 

Total Net Showtimes Added Today	48
Total Net Seats Added Today	3566
Total Seats Sold Today	706

 

T-2 Adjusted Comp #1

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	209.76		397	2460		0/143	15720/18180	13.53%		14.89m
BW (F9 adj)	---		635	5160		0/209	21577/26737	19.30%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  BW (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps during F9's track.

 

T-2 Adjusted Comp #2

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II	304.87		359	1870		26/118	2479/4349	43.00%		14.63m
BW (AQP adj)	---		706	5701		0/241	25028/30729	18.55%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: BW (adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track.

 

VERY UNOFFICIAL COMP: 

0.80020x tickets sold as Captain Marvel at T-2 [16.56m] [649 tickets sold at equivalent theaters]

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	258	25357	32301	6944	21.50%

 

Total Showtimes Added Today	17
Total Seats Added Today	1422
Total Seats Sold Today	1144

 

T-1 Adjusted Comp #1

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	212.80		439	2899		0/168	17632/20531	14.12%		15.10m
BW (F9 adj)	---		1009	6169		0/226	21990/28159	21.91%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  BW (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps during F9's track.

 

T-1 Adjusted Comp #2

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II	285.75		523	2393		22/125	2643/5036	47.42%		13.72m
BW (AQP adj)	---		1137	6838		0/258	25313/32151	21.27%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: BW (adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track.

 

VERY UNOFFICIAL COMP: 

0.81416x tickets sold as Captain Marvel at T-1 [16.85m] [1061 tickets sold at equivalent theaters]

[charlie Jatinder]

Make sense, when MTCs had average day, Sacramento has a great day.

[Porthos]

I'm not going to track it, but Snake Eyes showings are starting to be listed (though not yet for sale) over at Regal.

 

7pm looks to be the start time.

Edited July 8, 2021 by Porthos

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Make sense, when MTCs had average day, Sacramento has a great day.

 

The insane number of showtimes locally does help a bit, it must be said (though the 5pm start time certainly helps squeeze in more showings than a 7pm one like F9).  But, yes.  Pretty strong day, especially if one wants to see 2x F9.

 

Does makes me a tad worried that either 1) Sacto might be out of whack if there are simply  more showtimes locally compared to other places, or 2) if other markets follow suit, that might depress the IM as some folks who might have waited until later in the weekend see all the open seats and shoot for Thr instead. 

 

If MTC2 is going gaga on showtimes (they're the main culprit here, ftr), that might explain why Fri wasn't seeing as much of a pre-sale boost as some of our trackers think should be happening over there.

 

Or Sacto is just acting squirrely.  To-mah-toe, toe-may-to.

Edited July 8, 2021 by Porthos

[Rorschach]

I haven't participated in this since before the pandemic, but now that we're starting to get back into the swing of things, I figure I might as well, too. And hopefully on a more regular basis as well!

 

Black Widow @ Cinemark Davenport 18 and IMAX: 1 night before first evening showings

 

Thursday Night Previews:

Real D 3D Showings: 55/170

-7:30 P.M.: 47/85

-10:45 P.M.: 8/85

 

IMAX Showings: 166/774

-5:00 P.M.: 103/387

-8:15 P.M.: 63/387

 

2D Showings: 370/1,184

-5:30 P.M.: 45/135

-6:00 P.M.: 49/141

-6:30 P.M.: 45/78

-7:00 P.M.: 110/238

-8:45 P.M.: 54/135

-9:15 P.M.: 36/141

-9:45 P.M.: 2/58

-10:15 P.M.: 29/238

 

Total Sold: 591/2,128 (27.8% sold)

 

Friday:

Real D 3D Showings: 28/340

-12:00 P.M.: 7/85

-3:15 P.M.: 6/85

-6:30 P.M.: 7/85

-9:45 P.M.: 8/85

 

IMAX Showings: 80/1,548

-1:00 P.M.: 13/387

-4:15 P.M.: 9/387

-7:30 P.M.: 58/387

-10:45 P.M.: 0/387

 

2D Showings: 506/2,503

-10:20 A.M.: 31/135

-10:55 A.M.: 13/141

-11:30 A.M.: 17/78

-12:30 P.M.: 23/238

-1:35 P.M.: 8/135

-2:10 P.M.: 9/141

-2:45 P.M.: 7/78

-3:45 P.M.: 13/238

-4:50 P.M.: 27/135

-5:25 P.M.: 43/141

-6:00 P.M.: 49/78

-7:00 P.M.: 119/238

-8:05 P.M.: 50/135

-8:40 P.M.: 40/141

-9:15 P.M.: 34/78

-10:15 P.M.: 18/238

-11:20 P.M.: 5/135

 

Total Sold: 614/4,391 (14% sold)

Thurs. + Fri. Combined:

1,205/6,519 (18.5% sold)

 

It does look like the theater is operating at full capacity now (no seat buffers) so every unavailable seat is pretty much accounted for in this counting.

[RRA]

33 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I'm not going to track it, but Snake Eyes showings are starting to be listed (though not yet for sale) over at Regal.

 

7pm looks to be the start time.

I...didn't even know it was dropping in 2 weeks. 😬 (For whatever reason I assumed it was a mid/late August release.)

 

 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Cinemark's site is crashed so I can only track AMC and the local indie theater here. But the Dolby showings at the AMC for Thursday are just about sold out. Over 130 sold out of 150 for both the 5 and 830. The 7pm IMAX is about 75% full, less than 100 seats left

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, RRA said:

I...didn't even know it was dropping in 2 weeks. 😬 (For whatever reason I assumed it was a mid/late August release.)

 

 

The calendar crunch is real this year.

 

(doesn’t help that the “movie season“ more less started in April instead of February thanks to the ‘rona.  I reckon that’s messed with a few folks internal clocks when it comes to “how far away a film ‘should’ be”

 

A Marvel film releasing in early July instead of late April/early May doesn’t help matters here, what with Marvel movies being something of a sign post for the unofficial start of summer movies).

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

A Marvel film releasing in early July instead of late April/early May doesn’t help matters here, what with Marvel movies being something of a sign post for the unofficial start of summer movies).

But Marvel films do release in July regularly.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I might be naïve but I'm betting Snake Eyes bites the dust. I think Old out-opens it during the weekend

[Porthos]

16 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

But Marvel films do release in July regularly.

 

Yes, but I'm talking about the Marvel film that starts off the summer season.  That there's usually a later film during the summer isn't really entering the question here, I think.  Hell, if I really wanted to press things, I could point out that the lack of a Marvel film in Feb/March might also be messing with folks.  

 

Like, I'm having something of a hard time processing that there will be four Marvel movies released in five-plus months instead of the more normal three.  Like my brain keeps thinking that Shang-Chi  is gonna be a November movie, before correcting myself that that is the Eternals slot.

 

Just a weird calendar year and it's at least messing with my "expected clock" and I doubt I'm the only one.