The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[lorddemaxus]

22 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I might be naïve but I'm betting Snake Eyes bites the dust. I think Old out-opens it during the weekend

I expect it to be beat by BW, Space Jam 2 and Old that weekend.

[john2000]

forgive me if this seems foollish, but even if bw has 13,5 mill previews or something it still would need 7,5 multi to make 100 ow , that isnt unrealistic right ? 

Edited July 8, 2021 by john2000

[Porthos]

*starts to do some research about films that opened at 5pm*

*remembered that there was a neat Google Sheet keeping track of pretty much every preview, ever*

*digs for it*

*finds it*

 

...

 

...

 

HSX's Google Sheet doesn't appear to be updated anymore. 

 

Found some discussion over at HSX from last year about some changes the list maintainer was gonna do, but I can't easily find any followup.   I know about BOR's list, but I always liked the Google Sheet version.

 

Anyone know if this was handed off to someone else/transferred to a different Google Sheet?

[Eric Atreides]

On 7/6/2021 at 11:55 PM, Eric Belov said:

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	5	142	4287	25379	16.89%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 49

Total Seats Added Today: 7,316

Total Sellouts Added Today: 3

Total Seats Sold Today: 631

 

Comp

1.639x of Godzilla vs. Kong 2 Days Before Release (15.91M)

2.212x of F9 T-2 Before Release (15.71M)

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	8	145	5142	25715	20.00%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 3

Total Seats Added Today: 336

Total Sellouts Added Today: 3

Total Seats Sold Today: 855

 

Comp

1.768x of Godzilla vs. Kong 1 Day Before Release (17.16M)

2.036x of F9 T-1 Before Release (14.45M)

[Eric Atreides]

On 7/7/2021 at 12:00 AM, Eric Belov said:

Space Jam: A New Legacy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	43	267	7824	3.41%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 59

 

Comp

2.188x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-10 Before Release (16.87M)

Space Jam: A New Legacy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	43	386	7824	4.93%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 119

 

Comp

3.016x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-9 Before Release (23.24M)

[Eric Atreides]

3 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I might be naïve but I'm betting Snake Eyes bites the dust. I think Old out-opens it during the weekend

 

3 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

I expect it to be beat by BW, Space Jam 2 and Old that weekend.

@WrathOfHan mentioned in the Telegram chat that his university was supposed to have an early screening for Old but it got canceled right after Universal got the final cut from Shyamalan. I'm not expecting incredible things for Snake Eyes (though the recent BoxOfficePro range does have me intrigued a bit), but that little tidbit should tell you everything you need to know about Old's quality

[lorddemaxus]

50 minutes ago, Eric Belov said:

 

@WrathOfHan mentioned in the Telegram chat that his university was supposed to have an early screening for Old but it got canceled right after Universal got the final cut from Shyamalan. 

Probably bodes badly for its boxoffice and critical reception, but masterpiece incoming!!

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

 

If MTC2 is going gaga on showtimes (they're the main culprit here, ftr), that might explain why Fri wasn't seeing as much of a pre-sale boost as some of our trackers think should be happening over there.

 

The showtimes added for MTC2 were not that different percentage wise from F9. Friday had been running at a 35 million pace so I guess it was inevitable that it came back to earth but I expected it to happen more gradually.

 

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

The showtimes added for MTC2 were not that different percentage wise from F9. Friday had been running at a 35 million pace so I guess it was inevitable that it came back to earth but I expected it to happen more gradually.

 

So what friday are we looking at ? 28-30 ?

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, john2000 said:

So what friday are we looking at ? 28-30 ?

Depends on how it goes today. Not sure if yesterday was an outlier.

[filmlover]

Just bought tickets for Black Widow tomorrow night and most shows for tonight and tomorrow are already half to 3/4 full. Got a feeling it will easily dominate at least until Jungle Cruise opens.

[MrPink]

6 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

I expect it to be beat by BW, Space Jam 2 and Old that weekend.

 

I expect your street ass to be beat by the Snake Eyes gang, because we're here and won't stand for this. We're coming for y'all.

Edited July 8, 2021 by MrPink

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	City	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Black Widow	T-1	Jacksonville	6	70	11,596	1,475	165	12.72%
		Phoenix	7	76	10,663	1,227	169	11.51%
		Raleigh	8	69	7,966	1,972	254	24.76%
Black Widow Total			21	215	30,225	4,674	588	15.46%
Escape Room 2	T-8	Jacksonville	5	16	2,528	4	2	0.16%
		Phoenix	5	13	1,333	5	0	0.38%
		Raleigh	7	22	2,106	7	0	0.33%
Escape Room 2 Total			17	51	5,967	16	2	0.27%
Space Jam (Friday)	T-9	Jacksonville	5	25	4,140	62	7	1.50%
		Phoenix	5	17	2,120	45	7	2.12%
		Raleigh	7	30	3,837	109	20	2.84%
Space Jam Total			17	72	10,097	216	34	2.14%

 

Movie	Day	City	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Black Widow	T-0	Jacksonville	6	71	11,638	1,778	303	15.28%
		Phoenix	7	77	10,692	1,611	384	15.07%
		Raleigh	8	72	8,145	2,402	430	29.49%
Black Widow Total			21	220	30,475	5,791	1,117	19.00%
Escape Room 2	T-7	Jacksonville	5	16	2,528	5	1	0.20%
		Phoenix	5	13	1,333	6	1	0.45%
		Raleigh	7	22	2,106	8	1	0.38%
Escape Room 2 Total			17	51	5,967	19	3	0.32%
Space Jam (Friday)	T-8	Jacksonville	5	30	4,240	70	8	1.65%
		Phoenix	5	17	2,120	72	27	3.40%
		Raleigh	7	30	3,837	127	18	3.31%
Space Jam Total			17	77	10,197	269	53	2.64%

 

BW compared to F9

 

F9 T-0

Jacksonville - 853 (2.084x)

Phoenix - 962 (1.675x)

Raleigh - 1242 (1.934x)

 

Using the average of 1.9x of F9 puts it right at 13.5m for tonight.  

 

Pretty similar growth as F9 for yesterday.  I'll do a final previews update this afternoon before showings start to see how much that multiplier changes.  BW leads F9 total preview sales at this point 5,791 to 3,057; F9 afternoon count got up to 3,836 total.  So ready for this weekend so I can get some free time back in the mornings.

 

Edited July 8, 2021 by katnisscinnaplex
Added notation for Space Jam (Friday)

[ThomasNicole]

Seems like Space Jam is actually selling well?

 

Maybe it won't be the failure i was thinking.

[Eric Atreides]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Seems like Space Jam is actually selling well?

 

Maybe it won't be the failure i was thinking.

One thing I should mention is that Space Jam is probably overindexing on my charts. Philly has a majority-Black population, so Black-led movies do better than average. Spiral sold about the same number of tickets as Cruella in the theaters I tracked for instance. The NBA also skews Black, so that also doesn't help. But I'm the only one tracking the movie (being the guy who tracks movies nobody cares about is a blessing and curse), so that only makes things murkier.

 

Still, it does have the benefits of zero animation/kids movie competition and 90s nostalgia on its side, so we'll see.

[katnisscinnaplex]

8 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Seems like Space Jam is actually selling well?

 

Maybe it won't be the failure i was thinking.

 

It's passed the final numbers for PR2 and BB2 previews.  Both of those were 4pm start times though and Space Jam Friday shows are starting as early as 10:30am.  Still, pretty good numbers so far

[keysersoze123]

10 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Previews are up to 156927/729313 2249510.00 4511 shows. Probably will wrap up around 160K. Let us see how the release day goes. Friday is at 162570/1234212 2059507.00 7051 shows and will probaby hit ~ 220K by end of PS.

 

Not convinced BW can double F9. Walkups are still not crazy. Still one can never say for sure. Let us hope for the best. 

Previews now at 166183/730905 2371498.00 4531 shows. I will try to update later in the afternoon, if not I will update in the evening as usual. Think its headed towards ~ 230K . Let us hope it does way better than that with walk ups. 

[lorddemaxus]

55 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

I expect your street ass to be beat by the Snake Eyes gang, because we're here and won't stand for this. We're coming for y'all.

Here's what Old is gonna do to Snake Eyes on the weekend of July 23rd:

 

I'd be on your side with Snake Eyes on any other weekend but M. Night deserves the W.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 8, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[Eric Atreides]

Disappointing that Hotel Transylvania 4 got delayed. I would have been the Team Switzerland in the Shyamalan/Schwentke BOT War

[Tinalera]

Hitting 100 mil in theatres while also streaming on Disney Plus opening day would a very big win for them I would think.