The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[MrPink]

40 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Here's what Old is gonna do to Snake Eyes on the weekend of July 23rd:

 

I'd be on your side with Snake Eyes on any other weekend but M. Night deserves the W.

 

 

 

 

 

 

My man, it's time for Robert Schwentke to rise after the failure of RIPD

[Menor the Destroyer]

MTC2 is hitting what I expected yesterday but MTC1 is definitely slowing down. So perhaps 13.5 million is more likely. 

 

13.5

26

27

21

 

87.5 million weekend. Hopefully it does higher than that. 

[Krissykins]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

MTC2 is hitting what I expected yesterday but MTC1 is definitely slowing down. So perhaps 13.5 million is more likely. 

 

13.5

26

27

21

 

87.5 million weekend. Hopefully it does higher than that. 

Over $80m would be great. Certainly a new bar for a film with a streaming option. 

[RRA]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

Seems like Space Jam is actually selling well?

 

Maybe it won't be the failure i was thinking.

Despite my indifference to it considering I’m from that generation, but 90s kids seem to think it’s a classic. The nostalgia pull is there. 

 

Plus let’s be honest: the sequel being better isn’t exactly an impossible task to pull off.

[RRA]

10 minutes ago, Menor said:

MTC2 is hitting what I expected yesterday but MTC1 is definitely slowing down. So perhaps 13.5 million is more likely. 

 

13.5

26

27

21

 

87.5 million weekend. Hopefully it does higher than that. 

I predicted 85 the other day and I’m sticking with it because that’s what heroes do.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Previews now at 166183/730905 2371498.00 4531 shows. I will try to update later in the afternoon, if not I will update in the evening as usual. Think its headed towards ~ 230K . Let us hope it does way better than that with walk ups. 

Just 1.4x PSm 😕

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Just 1.4x PSm 😕

May be I am way off but its just walkups for previews. Yesterday it sold around 20K tickets. 65K+(some of the tickets sold so far also happened this morning) in the final day for previews is not small. If I am not wrong F9 sold 40k or so. 

[filmlover]

Hotel Transylvania's delay has likely assured that Black Widow has a strong chance at enjoying three weeks at the top spot. Like Henry Golding and Samara Weaving but Snake Eyes feels like a dud in waiting and Old would more likely debut in line with The Visit than Split/Glass even in a best case scenario in normal times.

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

May be I am way off but its just walkups for previews. Yesterday it sold around 20K tickets. 65K+(some of the tickets sold so far also happened this morning) in the final day for previews is not small. If I am not wrong F9 sold 40k or so. 

F9 had 67k for previews on Wednesday afternoon. So it sold 24k until morning and then only 40k through the day? That seems like some pitiful walkups. 

[keysersoze123]

Ok F9 sold closer to 60K. Then BW should do at least 80K. So I will increase to ~250K at MTC1. 

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Hotel Transylvania's delay has likely assured that Black Widow has a strong chance at enjoying three weeks at the top spot. Like Henry Golding and Samara Weaving but Snake Eyes feels like a dud in waiting and Old would more likely debut in line with The Visit than Split/Glass even in a best case scenario in normal times.

 

Lebron is crying in a corner somewhere:)...

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Menor said:

F9 had 67k for previews on Wednesday afternoon. So it sold 24k until morning and then only 40k through the day? That seems like some pitiful walkups. 

May be closer to 60K. I was going by my memory and I was off. It cannot that low on thursday. Probably in 50-60K range on final day. So I would say 80-90K for BW. 

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Lebron is crying in a corner somewhere:)...

Space Jam seems to be selling alright (at least where I am) but will probably debut in the $25-30M range that the "successful" HBO Max titles have landed in so far, which is unlikely to be enough to unseat Black Widow if it goes as high as it's looking to this weekend.

[charlie Jatinder]

I guess it's time to get weekend thread up.

[Rorschach]

2 hours ago, MrPink said:

 

I expect your street ass to be beat by the Snake Eyes gang, because we're here and won't stand for this. We're coming for y'all.

They can’t match our power because we’re on a new level.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Starts the day at 122,509 in MTC2. At the same time F9 had 63,916.  So a lead of about 59k and that will grow through the day as BW's pace seems significantly faster so far (I had partial data from earlier in the morning and it sold about 3700 since that, while F9 at a similar period sold 2700). Hopefully it maintains that throughout the day, though I expect the ratio to decline significantly. 

 

Also since shows are starting at 5, I won't be able to capture newly added shows after then, and they seem to be trickling in in the morning (it has already added more shows since last night than F9 added in the entire day). That is a flaw in my current system. Will try to resolve it by the time of the next big opener. 

Edited July 8, 2021 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

I won't do any analysis at this point. Whatever number MTC 1 and 2 give, will use them tomorrow morning

 

[WrathOfHan]

Update

 

5:00 Dolby: 90/236 (+11)

5:30 3D: 11/107 (-)

5:45: 10/67 (+7)

6:00: 30/107 (+6)

6:15: 3/40 (-)

6:30 IMAX: 71/372 (+26)

6:45: 0/40 (-)

7:00: 38/107 (+3)

7:15: 0/40 (-)

7:30: 9/107 (+9)

7:45: 6/50 (+6)

8:00 3D: 5/70 (+5)

8:15: 16/40 (+13)

8:30 Dolby: 125/236 (+7)

8:45: 6/40 (+6)

9:00 3D: 1/107 (-)

9:15: 6/67 (+6)

9:30: 21/107 (+6)

9:45: 4/40 (+4)

10:00 IMAX: 43/372 (+21)

10:15: 5/40 (+2)

10:30: 10/107 (+7)

Total: 510/2,499 (+145) (Up 40% from yesterday)

 

Comps:

 

190% of F9 Previews (13.3M)

252% of AQP2 Previews (12.1M)

 

Walkups are gaining much stronger momentum than AQP2 or F9 saw. Right now, I'm thinking 12.5M-15M. I'll do another update in a couple hours

[ZackM]

On 6/16/2021 at 3:31 AM, Porthos said:

You know, if we really want Moar Tracking, we could always try to summon @ZackM and see if he's willing to track Michigan/"MTC4" again, now that the box office is returning.

I don't have any capacity for tracking anything right now, but I'll start back up at some point.  I, like many others I'm sure, have been pretty checked out on the Box Office for quite some time now.

[Menor the Destroyer]

29 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Update

 

5:00 Dolby: 90/236 (+11)

5:30 3D: 11/107 (-)

5:45: 10/67 (+7)

6:00: 30/107 (+6)

6:15: 3/40 (-)

6:30 IMAX: 71/372 (+26)

6:45: 0/40 (-)

7:00: 38/107 (+3)

7:15: 0/40 (-)

7:30: 9/107 (+9)

7:45: 6/50 (+6)

8:00 3D: 5/70 (+5)

8:15: 16/40 (+13)

8:30 Dolby: 125/236 (+7)

8:45: 6/40 (+6)

9:00 3D: 1/107 (-)

9:15: 6/67 (+6)

9:30: 21/107 (+6)

9:45: 4/40 (+4)

10:00 IMAX: 43/372 (+21)

10:15: 5/40 (+2)

10:30: 10/107 (+7)

Total: 510/2,499 (+145) (Up 40% from yesterday)

 

Comps:

 

190% of F9 Previews (13.3M)

252% of AQP2 Previews (12.1M)

 

Walkups are gaining much stronger momentum than AQP2 or F9 saw. Right now, I'm thinking 12.5M-15M. I'll do another update in a couple hours

I'm seeing the same trend. Morning/early afternoon walkups are way ahead of F9. But maybe it's because the previews start earlier? 

Edited July 8, 2021 by Menor