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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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The prodigal daughter has returned.

 

I am still not fully recovered from the closing of my theater chain.  But I do think it's time to get back to tracking.  Couple of notes:

 

1. We lost Cinemagic, which was the regional chain that owned 2 IMAX theaters + 7 Premium/Stadium theaters in Maine, NH, and Mass.  Due to that, I'm going to track Falmouth Flagship in Maine and Regal Fox Run & RPX in Newington, NH.  Since everyone's been forced migrate to those, I suspect I'm going to overindex until basically Eternals, probably until Spider-Man.

 

2.  I found that presales were INCREDIBLY SLOW up here before the pandemic.  We tended to have a rush on the first day, and then nothing until the last 2 or 3 days of sales.  So in the future, I'm just going to track the first 24 hours of sales, and then the final says on the final Thursday.

 

FALMOUTH FLAGSHIP

 

TIME SOLD TOTAL
5:00 PM 67 117
6:00 PM 64 107
7:00 PM 12 58
8:00 PM 109 117
  252 399

 

I have Regal that I will post / ETA when I get back from the movie, but

 

TL;DR: It's basically sold out around here.

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12 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

12.5-15 Could suggest $78-85m I’d guess. Looking forward to tomorrow’s preview number. 

 

I haven't been tracking for a year plus but are multipliers now really that bad?

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9 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

I haven't been tracking for a year plus but are multipliers now really that bad?

Well I’m thinking a smaller multiplier than Ant Man and the Wasp just considering the pandemic and the 2 year wait for a MCU film. 

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

12.5-15 Could suggest $78-85m I’d guess. Looking forward to tomorrow’s preview number. 

It seems like it keeps getting worse. 😟

Edited by poweranimals
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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Megaplex

 

T-2 days Friday(238 showings): 4754(+835)/63789(+19012) in 14 theaters. $64,179 with $13.50 ATP

 

Megaplex is going crazy with the showings on Friday. They've added 136 in the past 2 days

Black Widow Megaplex

 

T-1 day Friday(244 showings): 6283(+1529)/64029(+240) in 14 theaters. $84,821 with $13.50 ATP

 

I'll do a Denver and Megaplex Thursday update around preview start time, and another Friday update tonight.

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Well I’m thinking a smaller multiplier than Ant Man and the Wasp just considering the pandemic and the 2 year wait for a MCU film. 

 

A&TW was most likely affected by being so close to 4th of July - causing a long weekend off as well as school being out and skewing a bit more family and younger.

 

Other MCU films in the summer had considerably better internal multis.

 

This has PPV though which might mean a smaller multi

Edited by TalismanRing
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4 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

A&TW was most likely affected by being so close to 4th of July - causing a long weekend off as well as school being out and skewing a bit more family and younger.

 

Other MCU films in the summer had considerably better internal multis.

 

Would hybrid be a huge factor considering, families that make up weekend audience have an option otherwise. We will know for sure after we have this saturday BO. 

 

 

 

Anyway 5 hours later BW previews are at 188287/731864 2649519.00 4561 shows. Pace is around 5K per hour looking at past 3 hours. It should pick up as East Coast shows start. Let us see how the acceleration is. 

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6 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

A&TW was most likely affected by being so close to 4th of July - causing a long weekend off as well as school being out and skewing a bit more family and younger.

 

Other MCU films in the summer had considerably better internal multis.

 

This has PPV though which might mean a smaller multi

Yeh, I’m just assuming: the 2 year gap, 1 year delay, streaming option = more rush and therefore smaller multiplier. 

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Just now, keysersoze123 said:

Would hybrid be a huge factor considering, families that make up weekend audience have an option otherwise. We will know for sure after we have this saturday BO. 

 

 

 

Anyway 5 hours later BW previews are at 188287/731864 2649519.00 4561 shows. Pace is around 5K per hour looking at past 3 hours. It should pick up as East Coast shows start. Let us see how the acceleration is. 


Of course it’ll be a huge factor. Especially hindering repeat business. 

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2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:


Of course it’ll be a huge factor. Especially hindering repeat business. 

Repeat business may not play a huge factor for OW. But ticket sales from families would take a hit. It would be interesting for us to get theatre reports to see how the audience demographics are. 

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13 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

258

25357

32301

6944

21.50%

 

Total Showtimes Added Today

17

Total Seats Added Today

1422

Total Seats Sold Today

1144

 

T-1 Adjusted Comp #1

 

   %

 

Sold T-1

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

F9

212.80

 

439

2899

 

0/168

17632/20531

14.12%

 

15.10m

BW (F9 adj)

---

 

1009

6169

 

0/226

21990/28159

21.91%

 

---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  BW (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps during F9's track.

 

T-1 Adjusted Comp #2

 

   %

 

Sold T-1

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

AQP II

285.75

 

523

2393

 

22/125

2643/5036

47.42%

 

13.72m

BW (AQP adj)

---

 

1137

6838

 

0/258

25313/32151

21.27%

 

---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: BW (adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track.

 

VERY UNOFFICIAL COMP: 

0.81416x tickets sold as Captain Marvel at T-1 [16.85m] [1061 tickets sold at equivalent theaters]

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [12:00pm - 12:55pm]

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

258

24466

32301

7835

24.26%

 

Total Seats Sold Last Night

891

 

AQP II MID-DAY REPORT NOT MADE DUE TO BEING OUT OF TOWN AT THE TIME

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Adjusted Comp #1

 

   %

 

Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

F9

204.84

 

491

3390

 

0/170

17331/20721

16.36%

 

14.54m

BW (F9 adj)

---

 

775

6944

 

0/226

21215/28159

24.66%

 

---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  BW (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps during F9's track.

 

VERY UNOFFICIAL COMP: 

0.81103x tickets sold as Captain Marvel at T-0 [Mid-Day] [16.79m] [829 tickets sold at equivalent theaters]

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9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Repeat business may not play a huge factor for OW. But ticket sales from families would take a hit. It would be interesting for us to get theatre reports to see how the audience demographics are. 

I think repeat business with MCU fans certainly plays a factor. It’s also silly to suggest that an at-home option just now won’t have a significant impact.
 

We’ve seen it impact movies’ potential all year, it’s not changing for Black Widow. It still impacts.  

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [12:00pm - 12:55pm]

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

258

24466

32301

7835

24.26%

 

Total Seats Sold Last Night

891

 

AQP II MID-DAY REPORT NOT MADE DUE TO BEING OUT OF TOWN AT THE TIME

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Adjusted Comp #1

 

   %

 

Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

F9

204.84

 

491

3390

 

0/170

17331/20721

16.36%

 

14.54m

BW (F9 adj)

---

 

775

6944

 

0/226

21215/28159

24.66%

 

---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  BW (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps during F9's track.

 

VERY UNOFFICIAL COMP: 

0.81103x tickets sold as Captain Marvel at T-0 [Mid-Day] [16.79m] [829 tickets sold at equivalent theaters]

Unless there is an issue with BW running out of seats, I suspect that F9 comp will end up at 13.6 million. Adjusted upwards maybe 14.25. Given that it has a couple more hours of walkups than F9 will, maybe could go higher, but it's also starting from a higher point so I'm not sure how much that will help. 

Edited by Menor
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21 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

I wish I had tracked F9 and AQP2.  Even then not a lot of good comps with the last MCU film opening on a Tues.

I'd say walk ups not as high as LK or TS4 but higher that R rated BOP (and certainly Joker)

 

So as of today - maybe -  $14.2-15.2m range? (Mal2 to Godzilla 😅)

 

Wed 5pm (July 7th):   326/3584 = 9.09%


Black Widow Preview Comps:

$14.9m (Shazam!)
$15.21m(Godzilla)
$10.88m (H&S)
$16.88m (Lion King)  

$16.79m (Toy Story 4)

$14.32m (IT2) (R)
$8m (Joker) (R)
$14.147m (Malif 2)
$13.32 (Frozen II)
$12.3m (BOP) (R)

 

Chart under Spoiler Cut

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

Thur 4pm check for 5pm First Show


498/3484 = 13.89% (Thur) + 52.7%

 

BW Comps (Time checked - First Show)

 

Shazam: $15.71m (3:30pm - 4pm FS)
Godz2: $15.38m (3:30pm - 4pm FS)
TLK: $20.56m (4:30pm - 6pm FS)
Joker: $8.7m (3:45pm - 4pm FS)
Mal2: $11.97m (6pm - 7pm FS)
Frozen2: $13.92m (4:30pm - 6pm FS)
Jumanji2: $13.15m (4pm - 4pm)
BOP: $12m (6pm - 7pm FS)

 

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Menor said:

Unless there is an issue with BW running out of seats, I suspect that F9 comp will end up at 13.6 million. Adjusted upwards maybe 14.25. Given that it has a couple more hours of walkups than F9 will, maybe could go higher, but it's also starting from a higher point so I'm not sure how much that will help. 

 

Yeah, F9 sold 1000+ tickets between noon and 6pm locally [last sample taken at 5:30 - 6:10].  I'm probably gonna take my BW sample at 4:20 - 5:15 which means I'm losing about an hour of sampling.  But, as you noted, I'm already planning on adjusting upwards a bit, so hopefully it'll wash out in the end.

 

The big hit is gonna be the AQP II comp [last sample taken 4:15-4:55].  We already know that the movie going environment is pretty different just six weeks later (F9 was AQP II comp x 1.05 exactly locally), so that's absolutely getting adjusted upwards when I think about a range for BW.  Prob just adjust AQP II up by 10% (1.05 x 1.05 = 1.1025 which is close enough to 10% for government work) and see where that lands.

 

For shits and giggles, I'll prob knock off 5 to 10 percent of the CM comp for lack of Ontario, ongoing caps in Canada/parts of the US, and theater closures.  Be interesting to see where that number comes in.

 

(also am keeping an eye on GvK, TROS, TLK, and TS4 to see if there is anything useful to be gleaned out of any of those)

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Posted (edited)

Final Update

 

5:00 Dolby: 99/236 (+9)

5:30 3D: 13/107 (+2)

5:45: 16/67 (+6)

6:00: 34/107 (+4)

6:15: 3/40 (-)

6:30 IMAX: 86/372 (+15)

6:45: 2/40 (+2)

7:00: 38/107 (-)

7:15: 2/40 (+2)

7:30: 9/107 (-)

7:45: 9/50 (+3)

8:00 3D: 7/70 (+2)

8:15: 16/40 (-)

8:30 Dolby: 126/236 (+1)

8:45: 6/40 (-)

9:00 3D: 1/107 (-)

9:15: 13/67 (+7)

9:30: 24/107 (+3)

9:45: 4/40 (-)

10:00 IMAX: 47/372 (+4)

10:15: 5/40 (-)

10:30: 14/107 (+4)

Total: 574/2,499 (+64) (Up 13% from earlier)

 

Comps:

 

214% of F9 Previews (15M)

284% of AQP2 Previews (13.6M)

 

Gonna bump the range up to 13-16.5M. I'll do Friday after I eat dinner.

 

Edited by WrathOfHan
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1 hour ago, Cap said:

The prodigal daughter has returned.

 

I am still not fully recovered from the closing of my theater chain.  But I do think it's time to get back to tracking.  Couple of notes:

 

1. We lost Cinemagic, which was the regional chain that owned 2 IMAX theaters + 7 Premium/Stadium theaters in Maine, NH, and Mass.  Due to that, I'm going to track Falmouth Flagship in Maine and Regal Fox Run & RPX in Newington, NH.  Since everyone's been forced migrate to those, I suspect I'm going to overindex until basically Eternals, probably until Spider-Man.

 

2.  I found that presales were INCREDIBLY SLOW up here before the pandemic.  We tended to have a rush on the first day, and then nothing until the last 2 or 3 days of sales.  So in the future, I'm just going to track the first 24 hours of sales, and then the final says on the final Thursday.

 

FALMOUTH FLAGSHIP

 

TIME SOLD TOTAL
5:00 PM 67 117
6:00 PM 64 107
7:00 PM 12 58
8:00 PM 109 117
  252 399

 

I have Regal that I will post / ETA when I get back from the movie, but

 

TL;DR: It's basically sold out around here.

My sad image is for you losing your theatre. I imagine there are quite a number who haven't survived Covid. Good for  you  you are carrying on and doing other theatre counts though!

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7 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie Day City Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
Black Widow T-0 Jacksonville 6 71 11,638 1,778 303 15.28%
    Phoenix 7 77 10,692 1,611 384 15.07%
    Raleigh 8 72 8,145 2,402 430 29.49%
Black Widow Total     21 220 30,475 5,791 1,117 19.00%

 

Movie Day City Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
Black Widow Late Jacksonville 6 76 12,095 2,333 555 19.29%
    Phoenix 7 77 10,692 1,881 270 17.59%
    Raleigh 8 74 8,303 3,148 746 37.91%
Black Widow Total     21 227 31,090 7,362 1,571 23.68%
F9: The Fast Saga Late Jacksonville 6 47 8,312 1,155 302 13.90%
    Phoenix 7 58 8,498 1,150 188 13.53%
    Raleigh 8 46 4,985 1,531 289 30.71%
F9: The Fast Saga Total     21 151 21,795 3,836 779 17.60%

 

Added 7 new showings today - most of those are empty.  Between the three cities there were 1,571 sales since this morning - 2,688 since yesterday morning.  Chart shows the final pull for F9 as well for day-of sales.

 

BW compared to F9

 

F9 Afternoon

Jacksonville - 1155 (2.020x)

Phoenix - 1150 (1.636x)

Raleigh - 1531 (2.056x)

 

Average multiplier actually went up a hair from this morning - just over 1.9x now.  I'm gonna stick with ~13.5m previews.  Chart below shows day-of sales for both movies.

 

 Rc6Fqqa.png

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