The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[WrathOfHan]

Friday:

 

11:45 Dolby: 10/236

12:00: 15/107

12:30: 2/107

1:00 3D: 5/107

2:00 IMAX: 14/372

2:30 3D: 0/107

3:00 Dolby: 53/236

3:30: 28/107

4:00: 9/107

4:30 3D: 1/107

5:00: 0/40

5:30 IMAX: 19/372

5:45 3D: 1/40

6:00 3D: 0/107

6:30 Dolby: 94/236

6:45: 4/40

7:00: 57/107

7:30: 12/107

8:00 3D: 6/107

9:00 IMAX: 77/372

9:15 3D: 0/40

9:30 3D: 0/107

9:45 3D: 0/70

10:00 Dolby: 59/236

10:15: 2/40

10:30: 2/107

Total: 470/3,721

 

Comps:

 

173% of F9 Friday the day before (51.7M Full Friday) (15M Previews + 39.6M True Friday = 54.6M Separately)

290% of AQP2 Friday the day before (56.3M) (13.6M Previews + 42.3M True Friday = 55.9M Separately)

618% of Cruella Friday the day before (47.6M)

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

In the run that just finished it was 153,100 at MTC2. The run itself is taking about an hour and a half though, so this probably reflects the "true" number from maybe 30-45 min ago. Breaking 200k seems very likely to me. 

 

F9 added about 40k from this point onward. BW has been going about 1.6-1.7x F9, that may drop to say 1.4-1.5x going into the night (as BW has an earlier start time and so more shows will already be off the board), so 210-215k seems likely. 

Edited July 8, 2021 by Menor

[john2000]

that would be great ? @Menor

Edited July 8, 2021 by john2000

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Anyway 5 hours later BW previews are at 188287/731864 2649519.00 4561 shows. Pace is around 5K per hour looking at past 3 hours. It should pick up as East Coast shows start. Let us see how the acceleration is. 

3 hours later its at 213337/733326 2956481.00 4594 shows(630PM EST). That is really good. I think 250K will happen. I expect really good pace until say 7PM PST and then it will slow down and after 9PM PST it does not matter from overall BO perspective. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, john2000 said:

that would be great ? @Menor

Yeah very good pace. MTC1 seems a tad slower though, so we'll see. 

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/7/2021 at 1:32 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

758

2744

27.62%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

805

2993

26.90%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4066	566	27899	14.57%	15	178

 

Showings added: 4

Seats added: 777

 

F9 comp: 18.78M

AQP2 comp: 16.17M

TLK comp: 15.63M

 

Pretty good day, right on pace with TLK, in equivalent theaters at least. FWIW, if it stays on that pace, then TRoS comp will be 14.46M. But nothing crazy one way or the other, so we'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1019

2788

36.55%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1095

3030

36.14%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 28ish HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
6362	2296	28495	22.33%	15	189

 

Showings added: 11

Seats added: 596

 

F9 comp: 15.72M

AQP2 comp: 13.85M; adjusted up 5%: 14.54M

TLK comp: 16.39M

TRoS comp: 15.17M

 

Solid day, but note that I did the F9 final count about an hour early, so adjust that down a bit. Honestly, I'm feeling pretty good about 15M+. Maybe I'm trusting these pre-pandemic comps a little too much, but they're at least in a similar range as the other comps. TLK is the only one that's an outlier, but not by much. I'll go with 15.2M, right at TRoS comp I guess

 

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/7/2021 at 1:52 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Megaplex

 

T-1 day Thursday(109 showings): 4978(+591)/28847(+294) in 14 theaters. $69,692 with $14 ATP

Black Widow Megaplex

 

Thursday(129 showings): 8279(+3301)/31570(+2723) in 14 theaters. $115,906 with $14 ATP

 

Great day. If the chain gets 1% of previews again, it needs about ~2500 tickets of walkups for $150K, assuming the ATP is close. There is a theater still closed in downtown Salt Lake City, so I'm not sure that it will be 1% of previews.

[Eric Duncan]

12 hours ago, Eric Belov said:

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	8	145	5142	25715	20.00%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 3

Total Seats Added Today: 336

Total Sellouts Added Today: 3

Total Seats Sold Today: 855

 

Comp

1.768x of Godzilla vs. Kong 1 Day Before Release (17.16M)

2.036x of F9 T-1 Before Release (14.45M)

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	11	151	7593	26072	29.12%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 6

Total Seats Added Today: 357

Total Sellouts Added Today: 3

Total Seats Sold Today: 2,451

 

Comp

1.958x of Godzilla vs. Kong's Final Count (19.00M)

1.674x of F9's Final Count (11.89M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.344x of Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker's Final Count (13.77M)

 

The F9 and Star Wars comps feel a bit more right to me at this point, though I haven't really paid attention to how the film is doing with our other trackers here.

 

I should mention with the Star Wars comp that one of the theaters I tracked there was permanently closed during the pandemic. Am I just supposed to exclude that theater from now on with these comps? If so, then that pushes the numbers up to 0.389x, or $15.54M previews.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 hours ago, Menor said:

In the run that just finished it was 153,100 at MTC2. The run itself is taking about an hour and a half though, so this probably reflects the "true" number from maybe 30-45 min ago. Breaking 200k seems very likely to me. 

 

F9 added about 40k from this point onward. BW has been going about 1.6-1.7x F9, that may drop to say 1.4-1.5x going into the night (as BW has an earlier start time and so more shows will already be off the board), so 210-215k seems likely. 

170,281 in the run that just finished. Still going at 1.6-1.7x F9. If that continues we can expect 225k but I'm still expecting a slight ratio drop. So 215-220k maybe (205-210k at the time we usually take the final number). With $12.5 ATP we can expect about 2.6 million out of MTC2. Great. It looks like at MTC2 it will be around 3x AQP2 so I guess I'll go with that 14.5 million.

 

Edit: 12.5 ATP is more likely than 13. 

 

Edited July 9, 2021 by Menor

[katnisscinnaplex]

16 minutes ago, Eric Belov said:

I should mention with the Star Wars comp that one of the theaters I tracked there was permanently closed during the pandemic. Am I just supposed to exclude that theater from now on with these comps? If so, then that pushes the numbers up to 0.389x, or $15.54M previews.

 

Personally I wouldn't exclude it since you are doing theaters in the same area.  I would assume those sales just get dispersed between the other theaters.

[Porthos]

On 7/8/2021 at 1:09 PM, Porthos said:

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [12:00pm - 12:55pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	258	24466	32301	7835	24.26%

 

Total Seats Sold Last Night

891

 

AQP II MID-DAY REPORT NOT MADE DUE TO BEING OUT OF TOWN AT THE TIME

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Adjusted Comp #1

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	204.84		491	3390		0/170	17331/20721	16.36%		14.54m
BW (F9 adj)	---		775	6944		0/226	21215/28159	24.66%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  BW (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps during F9's track.

 

VERY UNOFFICIAL COMP: 

0.81103x tickets sold as Captain Marvel at T-0 [Mid-Day] [16.79m] [829 tickets sold at equivalent theaters]

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [4:20pm - 5:20pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	260	23235	32431	9196	28.36%

 

Total Shows Added Since Mid-Day	2
Total Seats Added Since Mid-Day	130
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	1361

 

T-0 Adjusted Comp #1

	%		Sold Since Mid Day	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	183.00		1017	4407		0/161	15341/19748	22.32%		12.99m
BW (F9 adj)	---		1121	8065		0/228	20224/28289	28.51%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  BW (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps during F9's track.

 

T-1 Adjusted Comp #2

	%		Sold T-0	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II	272.09		943	3336		37/146	2140/5476	60.92%		13.06m
BW (AQP adj)	---		1348	9077		0/260	23204/32281	28.12%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: BW (adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track.

 

VERY UNOFFICIAL COMP: 

0.81010x tickets sold as Captain Marvel at Final Report [16.76m] [829 tickets sold at equivalent theaters since mid-day].

 

=====

 

Actually a strong day of walkups, but just a too tough hill to climb to keep pace with F9.

 

FINAL COMPS AFTER ADJUSTMENTS:
F9 x 1.05 = 13.64m

GvK x 1.15 = 14.14m

AQP II x 1.10 = 14.37m
CM x .9 = 15.09m

 

Hmmm....  Gonna call for 14m in previews +/- .4m.  I hate giving that much of a range, but things really are up in the air right now with rotten comps and rapidly changing dynamics.

Edited August 31, 2021 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Just now, Porthos said:

Hmmm....  Gonna call for 14m in previews +/- .4m.  I hate giving that much of a range, but things really are up in the air right now with rotten comps and rapidly changing dynamics.

 

Let the record show I saw this before Eric and Menor's posts, so I ain't copying their work.  

 

(been hip deep in calc sheets, fighting Fandango, and writing up stuff/catching errors before hitting Submit Reply)

[charlie Jatinder]

Harkins till 18:00 80 shows $58,127. On Monday pre-sales in these shows were $21K.

 

There are 275 more shows. Pre-sales for them on Monday were $52K. Probably another $175K for $235K, which will be equivalent to $13M nationwide.

 

Edit: Two points though

1. The chain has blocked seats in each show. Now these may be sold offline, so I have no way of knowing if they are sold or blocked. For now I am assuming them unsold.

2. Each show sells quite a good number of tickets after it starts, so actual numbers will be higher than what I recorded for first 80 shows since I took them on time show started. For shows here onward, I am recording them 20 minutes after it start.

 

In all probability actual numbers may be 5-10% higher than what I will get.

Edited July 9, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

57 minutes ago, Eric Belov said:

I should mention with the Star Wars comp that one of the theaters I tracked there was permanently closed during the pandemic. Am I just supposed to exclude that theater from now on with these comps? If so, then that pushes the numbers up to 0.389x, or $15.54M previews.

 

38 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Personally I wouldn't exclude it since you are doing theaters in the same area.  I would assume those sales just get dispersed between the other theaters.

 

Same, for the record. I do think there is some additional foot traffic that wouldn't be dispersed to other theaters.  But not enough to completely negate the sales at that theater.  I usually don't factor it in a comp when I do my counts and either make a note of it in the report somewhere or use it to simulate theater growth/subtraction nationwide between film releases.  

 

Considering that there's been quite a few theater closures nationwide, I think not adjusting for that theater is the wisest move in this circumstance.

[Porthos]

Because this one is so up in the air/is interesting, let me see if I have everyone's final comps/estimates:

 

@katnisscinnaplex: 13.5m

@WrathOfHan:       13m - 16.5m.

@TalismanRing:     11.97m- 15.71m [comps from pre-2020 (throwing out highest and lowest)]

@Inceptionzq:       15.2m

@Eric Belov:          11.89m - 13.77m

@Menor:               14.5m

@Porthos:             14m +/- .4m

 

If I missed someone, let me know and I'll edit it in.

 

EDITED::::
 

Taking the mid point of folks who gave ranges, I get 14.0885m, or 14.1m

 

Let's see if the Hive Mind of the Tracking thread wins again or not.

Edited July 9, 2021 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

49 minutes ago, Menor said:

170,281 in the run that just finished. Still going at 1.6-1.7x F9. If that continues we can expect 225k but I'm still expecting a slight ratio drop. So 215-220k maybe (205-210k at the time we usually take the final number). With $12.5 ATP we can expect about 2.6 million out of MTC2. Great. It looks like at MTC2 it will be around 3x AQP2 so I guess I'll go with that 14.5 million.

 

Edit: 12.5 ATP is more likely than 13. 

If it hit 215K, $15M is confirmed.

[XXR vs XXR]

On 7/5/2021 at 12:19 PM, VenomXXR said:

$13.5m previews

$89.6m OW 

 

 

Just a reminder since I see a lot of y’all coming around to my preview numbers….

[charlie Jatinder]

35 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Harkins till 18:00 80 shows $58,127. On Monday pre-sales in these shows were $21K.

 

There are 275 more shows. Pre-sales for them on Monday were $52K. Probably another $175K for $235K, which will be equivalent to $13M nationwide.

Two points though

1. The chain has blocked seats in each show. Now these may be sold offline, so I have no way of knowing if they are sold or blocked. For now I am assuming them unsold.

2. Each show sells quite a good number of tickets after it starts, so actual numbers will be higher than what I recorded for first 80 shows since I took them on time show started. For shows here onward, I am recording them 20 minutes after it start.

 

In all probability actual numbers may be 5-10% higher than what I will get.

[Menor the Destroyer]

33 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

If it hit 215K, $15M is confirmed.

We have had some surprises with high MTC ratios for previews recently though.

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

We have had some surprises with high MTC ratios for previews recently though.

Check DM I have sent something.