The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

16 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

My rule is the later it goes, the more we'll be disappointed...F9 (according to a Forbes post) had numbers out by 10:20am EST...it might have been sooner, but Deadline keeps updating their post, so I can't find their original post time...it's 10:20am in 5 minutes:)...

Depend on the office opening time I suppose.  Universal is I think based in NYC, so updates are earlier than those in CA.

[Tinalera]

13 hours ago, Porthos said:

Because this one is so up in the air/is interesting, let me see if I have everyone's final comps/estimates:

 

@katnisscinnaplex: 13.5m

@WrathOfHan:       13m - 16.5m.

@TalismanRing:     11.97m- 15.71m [comps from pre-2020 (throwing out highest and lowest)]

@Inceptionzq:       15.2m

@Eric Belov:          11.89m - 13.77m

@Menor:               14.5m

@Porthos:             14m +/- .4m

 

If I missed someone, let me know and I'll edit it in.

 

EDITED::::
 

Taking the mid point of folks who gave ranges, I get 14.0885m, or 14.1m

 

Let's see if the Hive Mind of the Tracking thread wins again or not.

I haven't thrown in a guess, if I still can I'd like to give an estimate of 13.3 

[cax16]

“Apparently” Ontario will be entering stage 3 next Friday July 16th, not officially announced yet. I think theatres will be allowed to seat at 50% capacity. 

Edited July 9, 2021 by cax16

[Menor the Destroyer]

13.2 so closest are @katnisscinnaplex @keysersoze123 and @Tinalera

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

13.2 so closest are @katnisscinnaplex @keysersoze123 and @Tinalera

hoping friday is great, i want a 7,5 multi

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

hoping friday is great, i want a 7,5 multi

That seems a little too ambitious to me but you never know. 

[john2000]

10 minutes ago, Menor said:

That seems a little too ambitious to me but you never know. 

any friday update ?

 

[Tinalera]

31 minutes ago, cax16 said:

“Apparently” Ontario will be entering stage 3 next Friday July 16th, not officially announced yet. I think theatres will be allowed to seat at 50% capacity. 

That's the hope, assuming everything goes smoothly of course. It would be nice to again start contributing to the numbers, having a computer now instead of just using a phone hopefully it goes easier with counting. 

[keysersoze123]

I went midway in my range. It finished close to lower end. Still this is a fantastic number considering the hybrid model.

 

Morning Update

MTC1 - 250806/1247497 3002051.00 7259 shows

MTC2 - 183844/1030320 2049328.66 7554 shows

 

Let us see how the day goes. 

[Krissykins]

20 minutes ago, Menor said:

13.2 so closest are @katnisscinnaplex @keysersoze123 and @Tinalera

Well done! 

[Menor the Destroyer]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I went midway in my range. It finished close to lower end. Still this is a fantastic number considering the hybrid model.

 

Morning Update

MTC1 - 250806/1247497 3002051.00 7259 shows

MTC2 - 183844/1030320 2049328.66 7554 shows

 

Let us see how the day goes. 

F9 was about 170k at MTC1 at a similar point if I interpret your posts on that day correctly. If BW added an identical amount of tickets from this point onward until your 7 PM PT update then it will be at 434k which would be about 1.23x F9 (28 million). Could even go higher. We may be in for a nice Friday I guess, fingers crossed.

Edited July 9, 2021 by Menor

[Tinalera]

7 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Well done! 

I feel a bit odd because I put mine in so late lol. Though on other hand it was totally a gut feeling lol.

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

F9 was about 170k at MTC1 at a similar point if I interpret your posts on that day correctly. If BW added an identical amount of tickets from this point onward until your 7 PM PT update then it will be at 434k which would be about 1.23x F9 (28 million). Could even go higher. We may be in for a nice Friday I guess, fingers crossed.

The thing is MTC2 ratio will be worse. F9 did close to 300K(3.41m). Not sure BW can do much better. We will know for sure later in the day. I am expecting 28 million as well but worst case scenario is what @charlie Jatinder predicted yesterday(26m). 

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

The thing is MTC2 ratio will be worse. F9 did close to 300K(3.41m). Not sure BW can do much better. We will know for sure later in the day. I am expecting 28 million as well but worst case scenario is what @charlie Jatinder predicted yesterday(26m). 

F9 did 300k yeah but at the start of the day it should have only been about 130k I think, BW is already at least 50k higher. I don't think it should lose ground from here even if it doesn't gain much. We will see how it goes.

[Inceptionzq]

8 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Megaplex

 

Friday(243 showings): 8544(+2261)/63476(-553) in 14 theaters. $115,344 with $13.50 ATP

 

I guess they realized they may have gone a bit overboard with the showings and removed one whole showing. I will probably do an update in the morning too

Black Widow Megaplex Friday(245 showings)

 

9287(+743)/63994(+518) in 14 theaters. $125,375 with $13.50 ATP

[charlie Jatinder]

I am getting really bad in reading MTC data.

[Legion Again]

22 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Megaplex Friday(245 showings)

 

9287(+743)/63994(+518) in 14 theaters. $125,375 with $13.50 ATP

Wow, just 80 hourly pace, flopping for sure 😛 

Edited July 9, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[Eric Atreides]

28 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I am getting really bad in reading MTC data.

I never followed it in the first place. Join me on my path.

[keysersoze123]

33 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I am getting really bad in reading MTC data.

I just went with 1.9x based on MTC1 ratio between F9 and BW. MTC2 was lower(closer to 1.7x) but there was about 15 minutes of delta between time I took status check and MTC1 has way bigger influence. It finished around 1.85x. That is not surprising at all. Its easy to extrapolate when you compare BO of movies released just couple of weeks apart. While BW has fewer restrictions, overall landscape has not changed dramatically. 

[Porthos]

15 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [4:20pm - 5:20pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	260	23235	32431	9196	28.36%

 

Total Shows Added Since Mid-Day	2
Total Seats Added Since Mid-Day	130
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	1361

 

T-0 Adjusted Comp #1

	%		Sold Since Mid Day	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	183.00		1017	4407		0/161	15341/19748	22.32%		12.99m
BW (F9 adj)	---		1121	8065		0/228	20224/28289	28.51%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  BW (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps during F9's track.

 

T-1 Adjusted Comp #2

	%		Sold T-0	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II	272.09		943	3336		37/146	2140/5476	60.92%		13.06m
BW (AQP adj)	---		1348	9077		0/260	23204/32281	28.12%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: BW (adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track.

 

 

Soooo, I'm guessing I shouldn't have done any adjusting at all to the F9/AQP II numbers.  

 

Weird.

 

Oh well, RIP every goddamn comp I made pre-2020 until given reason to think about them.

Edited July 9, 2021 by Porthos