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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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33 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Soooo, I'm guessing I shouldn't have done any adjusting at all to the F9/AQP II numbers. :lol: 

 

Weird.

 

Oh well, RIP every goddamn comp I made pre-2020 until given reason to think about them.

 

Pulling pure comps out of nested quote:

 

F9:  12.99

AQP II: 13.06

 

You know, this wild the more I think about it.  Especially the AQP II number.

 

Since AQP II, just about every theater chain has dropped social distancing where it's been allowed to... and it hasn't mattered a damn.  In fact, as I think about it, a strong case could be made that the reason F9 = AQP II comp x 1.05 locally was I didn't have access to some of my theaters to have a more reliable comp (note how the BW:AQP II comp is actually slightly higher than the BW:F9 one, which really shouldn't be the case for semi-complicated math reasons that I won't go into now).   For all practical considerations, they're identical.

 

Now I know there is a danger in over-reading three pieces of data.  Could be films over or under performing relative to the DOM market for various reasons.  But, seriously.  Damn.  That's just wild.   And has some disquieting implications that I think the return of Ontario/lifting of remaining caps can't fully address.

 

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BW weekend sales breakdown for Jacksonville.

 

As of Tuesday

Movie Date Day Theaters Shows Sold Capacity
Black Widow 7/8 Thursday 6 66 1310 12095
Black Widow 7/9 Friday 6 90 972 18123
Black Widow 7/10 Saturday 6 93 584 18579
Black Widow 7/11 Sunday 6 85 278 17005

 

As of today (yesterday afternoon for Thu sales)

Move Date Day Theaters Shows Sold Capacity
Black Widow 7/8 Thursday 6 71 2333 12095
Black Widow 7/9 Friday 6 167 2445 28814
Black Widow 7/10 Saturday 6 167 1206 29197
Black Widow 7/11 Sunday 6 155 582 27255

 

 

So many showings added since Tuesday.  Thu + Fri still making up ~72% of weekend sales in Jacksonville.  F9 had increased from 64% to 67% between the Tues and Fri pulls, but ended with a much different breakdown.

 

  BW F9
Thu 35.53% 20.07%
Fri 37.24% 47.45%
Sat 18.37% 22.14%
Sun 8.86% 10.35%

 

 

Using some very questionable math to calculate based on F9 sales, here's what I get for the weekend breakdown.

Thu: 13.2m

TFri: 25.4m
Sat: 26.4m
Sun: 21.7m

Weekend: 86.7m

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Caps were never restricting business that much, aside from the very specific case of GvK. There’s just enough seats in the country that only offering 50% doesn’t create a true supple and demand problem for movies of this size (obv IW or it’s ilk would be massively affected).   
 

Ontario is a whole different situation, that’s a population which straight up couldn’t see movies.   
 

But it’s also like, 4% of DOM or something? And it will recover gradually. So I don’t expect some immediate huge boost.

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On 7/6/2021 at 5:36 PM, Yandereprime101189 said:

Any idea on when Jungle Cruise's advance tix drop?

It's now currently in the "random Regals are getting showtimes up but not for sale" phase here in Philly. Snake Eyes went through the same thing last week and just had its tickets up for sale today. So I'm assuming it'll probably also drop next Friday. Same distance of time as Cruella FWIW

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On 7/8/2021 at 10:20 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie Day City Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
Escape Room 2 T-7 Jacksonville 5 16 2,528 5 1 0.20%
    Phoenix 5 13 1,333 6 1 0.45%
    Raleigh 7 22 2,106 8 1 0.38%
Escape Room 2 Total     17 51 5,967 19 3 0.32%
Space Jam (Friday) T-8 Jacksonville 5 30 4,240 70 8 1.65%
    Phoenix 5 17 2,120 72 27 3.40%
    Raleigh 7 30 3,837 127 18 3.31%
Space Jam Total     17 77 10,197 269 53 2.64%

 

Movie Day City Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
Escape Room 2 T-6 Jacksonville 5 16 2,528 7 2 0.28%
    Phoenix 5 13 1,333 9 3 0.68%
    Raleigh 7 22 2,106 13 5 0.62%
Escape Room 2 Total     17 51 5,967 29 10 0.49%
Space Jam (Friday) T-7 Jacksonville 5 30 4,240 96 26 2.26%
    Phoenix 5 17 2,120 101 29 4.76%
    Raleigh 7 30 3,837 141 14 3.67%
Space Jam Total     17 77 10,197 338 69 3.31%

 

Really nice to have 7 pages of posts since yesterday's update!  Another good day for Space Jam; hate that I don't have anything to compare it to yet.   ER2 leads Forever Purge 29 to 14 at T-6.  Guess I'll pick up Snake Eyes and maybe Old in the next few days.

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26 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Caps were never restricting business that much, aside from the very specific case of GvK. There’s just enough seats in the country that only offering 50% doesn’t create a true supple and demand problem for movies of this size (obv IW or it’s ilk would be massively affected).   
 

Ontario is a whole different situation, that’s a population which straight up couldn’t see movies.   
 

But it’s also like, 4% of DOM or something? And it will recover gradually. So I don’t expect some immediate huge boost.

 

I think that's partially it, but I now am 100% convinced some markets have recovered more than others.  I now have four sets of data that show that Sacramento more or less is seeing movies at pre-2020 levels.  There could have been a case for GvK getting the "YAAYYYY we can get out of the house" effect, but Sacto producing at pre-2020 levels has more or less been consistent. 

 

From memory, AQP II was about 18% off of what a It 2 comp would have suggested.

From memory, F9 was about 21%-22% off of what a H&S/Wick 3 comp would have suggested.

BW was about 21% off of what a CM comp would have suggested.

 

Those are of course cherry picked to a degree, more due to laziness in not wanting to break out more comps, but still... 

 

Just looks like there is an uneven recovery going on, including all of those shuttered screens/closed chains across the country.

 

(once again, the danger of over-reading limited data is noted in advance)

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31 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Almost 4 hours later MTC1 at 298K and MTC2(about 3.5 hours) at 218K. No change in predictions. 

If I read this right it should be about a 95k lead over F9 at the same point in MTC1, and about a 60k lead in MTC2.

Edited by Menor
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Seems like Thursday previews is back on the menu for the HBO Max day and date releases.

 

 

Of course, no clue if they'll report it or not (I mean, they didn't for ITH and that was a proper Thursday release)

Edited by lorddemaxus
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14 minutes ago, Menor said:

If I read this right it should be about a 95k lead over F9 at the same point in MTC1, and about a 60k lead in MTC2

I dont remember exact apples to apple comparison on a time basis. I would rather extrapolate based on run rate. I might not have another update till evening but based on acceleration as we hit peak evening hours we will know. 

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7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont remember exact apples to apple comparison on a time basis. I would rather extrapolate based on run rate. I might not have another update till evening but based on acceleration as we hit peak evening hours we will know. 

Went off of F9 numbers you posted for MTC1 (197k at 1:05 Central) and the numbers I had down for MTC2. Yeah we will know more come evening. 

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Phrasing is "40M+". Not sure if that means they are being conservative or if it's just inexact phrasing from Deadline, and the estimate is indeed 40 million on the dot. Neither would surprise me. 

 

Ok looking at F9 they said 29.5 million almost exactly. Fairly certain they are being conservative. 

Edited by Menor
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12 minutes ago, Menor said:

Phrasing is "40M+". Not sure if that means they are being conservative or if it's just inexact phrasing from Deadline, and the estimate is indeed 40 million on the dot. Neither would surprise me. 

 

Just glanced right over the "+" and it didn't register, sorry 'bout that.  Should have put it in my post.

 

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I did an afternoon run on MTC2 and it was at 257805. The run is taking 3 hours so I can't put an exact timestamp on it. But I timed it to match an equivalent run for F9 and it's 68k tickets ahead at the same point. Should finish the day at 75-80k tickets ahead I guess (377-382k MTC2). That would be about 26-27% over F9.

Edited by Menor
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16 minutes ago, Menor said:

I did an afternoon run on MTC2 and it was at 257805. The run is taking 3 hours so I can't put an exact timestamp on it. But I timed it to match an equivalent run for F9 and it's 68k tickets ahead at the same point. Should finish the day at 75-80k tickets ahead I guess (377-382k MTC2). That would be about 26-27% over F9.

nvr

Edited by john2000
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F9 true fri: 22.76

+20%: 27.3M (40.5 OD)

+25%: 28.5M (41.7 OD)

+27.5%: 29M (42.2 OD)

+30%: 29.6M (42.8 OD)

+33%: 30.3M (43.5 OD)

 

I guess BW will beat F9 more at MTCs than non MTCs? Otherwise looking pretty big.  
 

30.3 is about what I’d need to see for 100M to stay in play, and even then it’s unlikely. But 90s would be neat

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Sorry for repost but its easy to search here. At 530PM PST MTC1 at 408.5K(4.62m gross) and MTC2 at 318.5K(3.43m). Gross wise F9 is about 10% higher than F9 end at MTC1 while MTC2 is almost flat(5% higher ticket sales number). I am going to stick with 28m friday. I will update around 8PM as always to keep comps comparable. 

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