Jump to content

grim22

The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

Recommended Posts



35 minutes ago, Menor said:

I forgot Jungle Cruise was on PA as well. And it seems to be somewhat family targeted so that could take a good bite as well. Would be very surprised if it hits 50.

 

That was actually one of the only reasons I was thinking about tracking it, so I could get more of a baseline on PA/Day-and-date releases.  Plus having family films in the hopper is always good.

 

Think I might do an informal track on the downlow.  That is, check it every few days,  but only keep track of total sold and total seats without breaking out the spreadsheet. If it's in Cruella land, then I might check it out a couple of times just before release, and perhaps on day of release.  I've done that on occasion more for morbid curiosity than anything else.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Jungle Cruise feels like low 20s to me. 

 

There's something strange going on with Space Jam. I checked early sales out of curiosity and my Cinemark Friday showtimes are empty except the 6pm has 3 large groups blocking off entire rows. It's not selling elsewhere to a high level, it'll be a walk-up movie. Looking at AMC, the 415 Friday has so far 8 seats sold and the 730 has 16. 

 

My early prediction so far would be a 28-32m weekend

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Again BW tapered off big time. its gross is 8% higher than F9 saturday at MTC1. I dont have final MTC2 number for F9 to compare but MTC2 for BW has held much better than MTC1(only 6% drop vs mid teens drop in MTC1). I would say 24m saturday for BW but I hope I am underestimating this time around. 

 

BW Saturday

MTC1 - 412206/1263375 4220523.00 7399 shows

MTC2 - 330646/1075292 3579754.89 7743 shows

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites



5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Again BW tapered off big time. its gross is 8% higher than F9 saturday at MTC1. I dont have final MTC2 number for F9 to compare but MTC2 for BW has held much better than MTC1(only 6% drop vs mid teens drop in MTC1). I would say 24m saturday for BW but I hope I am underestimating this time around. 

 

BW Saturday

MTC1 - 412206/1263375 4220523.00 7399 shows

MTC2 - 330646/1075292 3579754.89 7743 shows

 

Sigh, see you weren't supposed to come close to my worst case Saturday from the weekend thread...but now, you're only $1M above it:)...

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, Eric Belov said:

Space Jam: A New Legacy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting (Fri)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 43 646 7824 8.26%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 145

 

Comp

0.452x of Godzilla vs. Kong's Wed T-7 Before Release (4.39M)

3.436x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-7 Before Release (26.48M)

0.612x of F9's Thu T-7 Before Release (4.35M)

Space Jam: A New Legacy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting (Fri)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 43 714 7824 9.13%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 68

 

Comp

0.441x of Godzilla vs. Kong's Wed T-6 Before Release (4.28M)

2.125x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-6 Before Release (16.38M)

0.626x of F9's Thu T-6 Before Release (4.44M)

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites



23 hours ago, Eric Belov said:

Snake Eyes Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting (Thu)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 24 34 4808 0.71%

 

Comp

0.120x of Mortal Kombat's Fi T-13 Before Release (1.09M)

0.085x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-13 Before Release (1.64M)

0.507x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-13 Before Release (3.91M)

Snake Eyes Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting (Thu)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 24 40 4808 0.83%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 6

 

Comp

0.125x of Mortal Kombat's Fri T-12 Before Release (1.14M)

0.088x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-12 Before Release (1.71M)

0.460x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-12 Before Release (3.54M)

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 7/9/2021 at 6:42 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Black Widow Saturday

MTC1 - 179020/1281795 1904480.00 7399 shows

MTC2 - 131355/1045393 1430950.81 7582 shows

 

it added about 40K since morning at MTC1 and 32K at MTC2. PS end will be around 5% higher. I think I am feeling good about a small drop tomorrow as I predicted yesterday. Even with better walk ups, late shows tend to be weaker compared to friday plus average ticket price will be lower(greater domination of morning shows). 

This is couple of hours of PS more than yesterday.

 

Black Widow Sunday PS END

MTC1 - 132268/1154006 1285970.00 6649 shows

MTC2 - 96153/933703 977960.47 6737 shows

 

I think Disney will estimate high 20's drop. But it will probably drop 25%. Based on my saturday call I would say its looking at 81.5m OW. 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Saturday tickets were mostly pre 6pm shows. Those tickets are cheaper. Pre noon shows are at discounted Tuesday levels.

 

That said one can never say for sure. It's too late to manually verify. We should have the numbers soon. Hope I was off.

 

Edit: on second thoughts why were you even questioning considering RTH posted even lower number. If you were asking why I was high again, I did say I was extrapolating with just MTC1 data as I did not track F9 saturday end at MTC2. May be the ratio was even worse plus MTC1 seem to slightly over perform for BW. 

Edited by keysersoze123
Link to comment
Share on other sites



On 7/10/2021 at 8:00 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie Day Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
Escape Room 2 T-5 Jacksonville 5 16 2,528 8 1 0.32%
    Phoenix 5 13 1,333 9 0 0.68%
    Raleigh 7 22 2,106 17 4 0.81%
Escape Room 2 Total     17 51 5,967 34 5 0.57%
Old T-12 Jacksonville 2 4 836 0 0 0.00%
    Phoenix 1 1 74 0 0 0.00%
Old Total     3 5 910 0 0 0.00%
Snake Eyes T-12 Jacksonville 5 16 3,412 4 4 0.12%
    Phoenix 5 8 1,639 6 6 0.37%
    Raleigh 4 10 1,228 10 10 0.81%
Snake Eyes Total     14 34 6,279 20 20 0.32%
Space Jam (Friday) T-6 Jacksonville 5 30 4,240 108 12 2.55%
    Phoenix 5 17 2,120 107 6 5.05%
    Raleigh 7 30 3,837 165 24 4.30%
Space Jam (Friday) Total     17 77 10,197 380 42 3.73%

 

Movie Day Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
Escape Room 2 T-4 Jacksonville 5 16 2,528 10 2 0.40%
    Phoenix 5 13 1,333 12 3 0.90%
    Raleigh 7 22 2,106 24 7 1.14%
Escape Room 2 Total     17 51 5,967 46 12 0.77%
Old T-11 Jacksonville 2 4 836 0 0 0.00%
    Phoenix 1 1 74 0 0 0.00%
    Raleigh 1 2 434 0 0 0.00%
Old Total     4 7 1,344 0 0 0.00%
Snake Eyes T-11 Jacksonville 5 16 3,412 7 3 0.21%
    Phoenix 5 8 1,639 7 1 0.43%
    Raleigh 5 13 1,755 15 5 0.85%
Snake Eyes Total     15 37 6,806 29 9 0.43%
Space Jam (Friday) T-5 Jacksonville 5 30 4,240 126 18 2.97%
    Phoenix 5 21 2,560 126 19 4.92%
    Raleigh 7 30 3,837 206 41 5.37%
Space Jam (Friday) Total     17 81 10,637 458 78 4.31%

 

ER2 didn't double like Forever Purge did, and now trails 51-46 total preview sales.  I feel like I say it every day, but Space Jam continues to impress.  Old added shows in Raleigh, but no sales yet.  

 

Still trying to figure out what's going on with BW.  Gonna try to back into the final figures against presales and see what comes out the other end.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Apparently Disney made 60 million in streaming alone for Black Widow. Combine that with the 80-90 ish million they're predicting for theatres, the fact that many people paid a 30 dollar premium to watch a tentpole for streaming, that's going to raise some eyebrows at Disney I think. Will be interesting going forward to see what disney does with this information going forward. 


I have to think they are weighing that against the idea that 30 dollars was per subscription, and how many people were having watch parties where they'd have a group of people to watch, whereas a group of 5 people would be paying individual prices at theatre. So theres more to be had at theatre, but its got give them pause that a tentpole with premium pricing does seem to work. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites







3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

FYI BW is down in low 20's % at this point but I expect overall drop to be worse as evening holds will not be that good. I would go with 17m sunday for now. 

With the way the BO tapered off past 2 days, I am thinking close to 16m Sunday now(its close to 30% down compared to yesterday). I wonder if Disney will increase friday/saturday to keep 80m or they would not care either way. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites



18 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

With the way the BO tapered off past 2 days, I am thinking close to 16m Sunday now(its close to 30% down compared to yesterday). I wonder if Disney will increase friday/saturday to keep 80m or they would not care either way. 

 

Geez, I actually called the Sat/Sun numbers with my worst case after the Friday number...and no one believed they could ever go that low...phew...these legs should be interesting to watch.  Thanks for the continued info!

Link to comment
Share on other sites



35 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

With the way the BO tapered off past 2 days, I am thinking close to 16m Sunday now(its close to 30% down compared to yesterday). I wonder if Disney will increase friday/saturday to keep 80m or they would not care either way. 

I mean, they can’t just “increase” Friday and Saturday. They made what they made.

Link to comment
Share on other sites



10 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

I mean, they can’t just “increase” Friday and Saturday. They made what they made.

 

I hear there are some shows over at Puerto Rico where BO numbers have not yet been counted. You never know :-)

 

On a serious note, you are saying Disney has never increased its friday/saturday with actuals ? Data so far out are still estimates.  Anyway 80m is not much of a benchmark. if it was 100m then its different. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites



Just now, keysersoze123 said:

 

I hear there are some shows over at Puerto Rico where BO numbers have not yet been counted. You never know 🙂

 

On a serious note, you are saying Disney has never increased its friday/saturday with actuals ? Data so far out are still estimates.  Anyway 80m is not much of a benchmark. if it was 100m then its different. 

Of course the actuals could come in over the estimates for Fri and Sat, but that’s not really Disney increasing them. That’s just “they ended up making a little more than we roughed in.”

Link to comment
Share on other sites



Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.