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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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23 minutes ago, DAJK said:

For what it's worth, Space Jam seems to be selling really well at all the Ontario theaters I'm looking at. To be fair, pretty much everything is selling pretty well in the province. Lots of sell-outs given the limited capacity. I could see there being a slight bump this weekend.

I can definitely see Ontario theatres getting a bump from the fact theatres are open, and people will go just to get out again. Im seeing similar as I gaze at theatres filling, and the reduced capacity I agree helps

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BOP's forecast:

 

Quote

Opening Weekend Ranges

 

Escape Room: Tournament of Champions
Opening Weekend Range: $7 – 12 million
Domestic Total Range: $18 – 31 million

 

Space Jam: A New Legacy
Opening Weekend Range: $20 – 30 million
Domestic Total Range: $60 – 100 million

 

This Weekend vs. Last Weekend

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will decrease between 26 and 35 percent from last weekend’s pandemic era record $117.5 million top ten aggregate.

 

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, July 18 Location Count % Change from Last Wknd
Space Jam: A New Legacy Warner Bros. Pictures $26,400,000 $26,400,000 ~3,950 NEW
Black Widow Disney / Marvel Studios $25,900,000 $131,900,000 4,275 -68%
Escape Room: Tournament of Champions Sony Pictures / Columbia $8,800,000 $8,800,000 2,815 NEW
F9: The Fast Saga Universal Pictures $6,600,000 $154,400,000 3,365 -42%

 

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So I checked 11 Cineplexes in Greater Toronto out of 27 there are. They have sold 3383 tickets for Friday for Black Widow. All 27 may be 8K tickets aka $110K.

Greater Toronto is like half of Ontario, so whole Ontario probably sold probably $225K in Cineplex and $300K overall. Say 2.5x PSm, that should give $750K Friday in ON to Widow, leading to $2.5M weekend.

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4 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

Space Jam beating Black Widow really want be that shocking considering how well it’s been selling. 

Dude we get it. You don't have to repeat the same thing ad infinitum. You'll be fine.

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23 hours ago, Eric E Coyote said:

Space Jam: A New Legacy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting (Fri)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 2 110 2645 18015 14.68%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 13

Total Seats Added Today: 2,720

Total Sellouts Added Today: 2

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,007

 

Comp

0.909x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-2 (8.83M)

3.314x of Cruella's Thu+Fri 1 Day Before Release (25.55M)

1.047x of F9's Thu 1 Day Before Release (7.43M)

 

Bah gawd. And we still have one more day to go.

Space Jam: A New Legacy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count (Fri)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 2 114 4420 18421 23.99%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 4

Total Seats Added Today: 406

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,775

 

Comp

1.140x of Godzilla vs. Kong (11.06M)

0.975x of F9's Thu (6.92M)

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10 minutes ago, Eric E Coyote said:

Space Jam: A New Legacy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count (Fri)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 2 114 4420 18421 23.99%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 4

Total Seats Added Today: 406

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,775

 

Comp

1.140x of Godzilla vs. Kong (11.06M)

0.975x of F9's Thu (6.92M)

What are you Predicting for a walk ups. If I’m not mistaking films that appeal heavily to the urban Audience normally have a great walk up Business. Also Does escape room have previews tonight

Edited by Nikostar
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23 hours ago, Eric E Coyote said:

Snake Eyes Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting (Thu)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 26 77 5106 1.51%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 159

Total Seats Sold Today: 5

 

Comp

0.095x of Mortal Kombat's Fri T-8 (865K)

0.110x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-8 (2.13M)

0.475x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-8 (3.66M)

Snake Eyes Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting (Thu)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 26 83 5106

1.63%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 6

 

Comp

0.084x of Mortal Kombat's Fri T-7 (762K)

0.105x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-7 (2.03M)

0.441x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-7 (3.40M)

 

I know these numbers are still fine, but the film has really slowed down the last two days and I hope there's some sort of rebound soon.

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23 hours ago, Eric E Coyote said:

Jungle Cruise Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting (Thu)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 32 18 6530 0.28%

 

Yeah, this is a bad start, but this won't be a very pre-sales driven title and won't really pick up until the week before release. I don't have any good day-to-day comps at this point, but it is about 27% of Cruella's Thu+Fri first day which would translate to about 2.07M. We'll see what happens from then on though expect things to be quiet

Jungle Cruise Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting (Thu)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 32 38 6530 0.58%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 20

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23 hours ago, Eric E Coyote said:

The Suicide Squad Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-22 and Counting (Thu)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 25 116 5985 1.94%

 

Comp

0.270x of F9 T-22 Before Release (1.91M)

0.086x of Black Widow T-22 Before Release (1.14M)

 

Uh...huh. I'll admit I don't have a lot of good comps at this stage. I also know that this was overshadowed by the Loki finale, taking the attention away from CBM fans. I also ALSO know that social media reactions could give this a boost tomorrow.

 

But...yeah, this is not a good start. While Jungle Cruise's soft debut is understandable, this really should have made a bigger splash IMO. This isn't the end for this movie of course, but I expected better.

The Suicide Squad Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting (Thu)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 28 164 6431 2.55%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 3

Total Seats Added Today: 446

Total Seats Sold Today: 48

 

Comp

0.333x of F9 T-21 (2.37M)

0.116x of Black Widow T-21 (1.53M)

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23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Space Jam OD (T-2)

MTC1 - 56208/469255 484810.00 3036 shows

MTC2 - 53309/401207 531387.45 3080 shows

 

It did not accelerate as much as I thought yesterday. Also showcount is quite low for an opener. Still I really like MTC ratio. Really strong in MTC2 as well. I will may be reduce my expectations to high 20's OW if its PS driven and walkups are not that great. We will know for sure on friday.  

 

Still think its winning this weekend. Just by MTC1 BW is looking at 5.25m wednesday. I dont know if it will stay flat tomorrow or drop further. Still wont be enough to challenge Space Jam. 

Space Jam PS END

MTC1 - 96391/477238 774226.00 3140 shows

MTC2 - 88635/417476 862965.21 3267 shows

 

Not bad at all. If walkups are as strong as what is possible, its going to have a good OD. Plus shows might fill up enough to get good spillover effect. Negatives are small show count and almost lack of PLF affecting average ticket price. But its playing well widely as that is a big plus. I think its going for high 20's OW and about 10-11m OD. 

 

Also Black Widow looks like it dropped below 5m today. We will know for sure tomorrow. Even with 60% friday increase I cant see it beat SJ tomorrow and probably weekend considering its anemic saturday performance due to PA. I think its going to be close between the 2 movies but I feel SJ will win. 

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The pre-sales are already 20.2% occupancy in MTC 1 and 21.2% in MTC 2. If it gets like 3x PSm, that will be like 60% occupancy. Unreal. Even TRoS was like just 50%. Black Widow previews were 35% while Friday went from 18% to 35%.

 

Ofcourse the release size is very small, but can it get 60% occupancy? 👀

 

Feels like too much to me. Will probably taper off at something like 45%, or will it.

 

 

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The pre-sales are already 20.2% occupancy in MTC 1 and 21.2% in MTC 2. If it gets like 3x PSm, that will be like 60% occupancy. Unreal. Even TRoS was like just 50%. Black Widow previews were 35% while Friday went from 18% to 35%.

 

Ofcourse the release size is very small, but can it get 60% occupancy? 👀

 

Feels like too much to me. Will probably taper off at something like 45%, or will it.

 

 

There are no capacity restrictions. So if the demand is there it will fill up. Also multiplexes have the option of adding more shows if demand is there. I am expecting quite a sellouts tomorrow as well. Let us see how things go. 

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8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

There are no capacity restrictions. So if the demand is there it will fill up. Also multiplexes have the option of adding more shows if demand is there. I am expecting quite a sellouts tomorrow as well. Let us see how things go. 

its not about capacity restriction but to maintain a 60% occupancy for full day is really hard.I suppose the night shows will be already around 40% range while morning and noon shows low. I am interested in time breakup of sales, if you can provide post 4PM and pre 4PM.

 

One thing to make up from FRI is it may not drop on SAT due to small release size and will get increase in shows on SAT probably.

 

Widow went from 18 to 35.

GvK went from 22 to 32. (with capacity restriction).
F9 went from 13 to 33.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

its not about capacity restriction but to maintain a 60% occupancy for full day is really hard.I suppose the night shows will be already around 40% range while morning and noon shows low. I am interested in time breakup of sales, if you can provide post 4PM and pre 4PM.

 

One thing to make up from FRI is it may not drop on SAT due to small release size and will get increase in shows on SAT probably.

Another thing to note is PS for even pre 6PM shows are quite strong. its 45% of overall sales at MTC1 and almost 55% of sales at MTC2. Those are phenomenal numbers for a friday. 

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3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Another thing to note is PS for even pre 6PM shows are quite strong. its 45% of overall sales at MTC1 and almost 55% of sales at MTC2. Those are phenomenal numbers for a friday. 

I was interested in looking up occupancy numbers. 

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23 hours ago, Porthos said:

The Suicide Squad Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

69

11531

11709

178

1.52%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

178

 

Day One Unadjusted Comp - PROBABLY LOL AT THIS POINT - USE AT OWN RISK

 

   %

 

Sold Day 1

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

F9

45.29

 

393

393

 

0/82

12755/13148

2.99%

 

3.22m

BW

16.35

 

1089

1089

 

0/99

16124/17213

6.33%

 

2.16m

 

Day One Adjusted Comp - CERTAINLY LOL AT THIS POINT - USE AT OWN RISK

 

   %

 

Sold Day 1

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

AQP II

111.25

 

160

160

 

1/28

1189/1343

11.92%

 

5.34m

TSS (adj)

---

 

178

178

 

0/69

11411/11589

1.54%

 

---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track.

 

The Suicide Squad Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

81

13740

13952

212

1.52%

 

Total Showings Added Today

12

Total Seats Added Today

2243

Total Seats Sold Today

34

 

Day 2 Unadjusted Comp - PROBABLY LOL AT THIS POINT - USE AT OWN RISK

 

   %

 

Sold Day 2

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

F9

45.01

 

78

471

 

0/92

13512/13983

3.37%

 

3.20

 

3.33

BW

16.15

 

224

1313

 

0/104

16873/18186

7.22%

 

2.13

 

2.22

ONTARIO COMP NOTE: Ont Comp is the number given in the Comp column/0.96 to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market.

 

Day 2 Adjusted Comp - CERTAINLY LOL AT THIS POINT - USE AT OWN RISK

 

   %

 

Sold Day 2

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

AQP II

80.77

 

100

260

 

1/28

1083/1343

19.36%

 

3.88

 

4.04

TSS (adj)

---

 

32

210

 

0/81

13622/13832

1.52%

 

---

 

---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track.

 

===

 

Pretty 'eh' day.  Slowdown is already here and it's gonna be some slow sledding until it starts to pick up again.  Did decide to add an Ontario comp as a separate field after all. Ontario is about 4% to 4.5% of the DOM according to @charlie Jatinder (and others), so I just went with 4% to be on the safer side.  Did decide to divide the comp by 0.96 (which is the equivalent of multiplying by 1.041667) for reasons.  Prob doesn't matter which way I do it, but I'll stick with this for now as I ain't quite comfortable enough with multiplying by 1.045 and 1.04 looks a little tiny bit too conservative.  

Edited by Porthos
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9 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Space Jam Megaplex Friday

 

1476 tickets sold across 14 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 6.34M

 

Doing quite well in a presale heavy chain for Marvel movies. I'll do another update late tonight

Space Jam Megaplex Friday

 

2135(+659) tickets sold across 14 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 6.57M

 

Again, presale heavy chain for Marvel, so the comp is likely underselling it. Still, it's encouraging.

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