The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[RRA]

1 hour ago, cax16 said:

Yup, unfortunately cause this one is doing the dual release as well many people who didn’t like the first one probably won’t be giving the second one a shot in the theatres while they already pay for max. I imagine max numbers for this one will probably be high and we’ll see 30-40m opening weekend. 
 

Hoping for decent legs but I’m not sure how that will work out cause of the max release. Hopefully they got a better movie this time so it helps rebuild the brand. 

That’s a responsible measured long-term strategic approach. 
 

But this is WB. Who’s in the middle of a merger where exec jobs are on the chop block. God knows how they’ll (over) react to TSS’s numbers if it’s not deemed acceptable (whatever they are.)

 

Can Hollywood put a moratorium on sequels using “the ___”? Reminds me when originally Iron Man 3 was going to do that. Yeech 

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, RRA said:

That’s a responsible measured long-term strategic approach. 
 

But this is WB. Who’s in the middle of a merger where exec jobs are on the chop block. God knows how they’ll (over) react to TSS’s numbers if it’s not deemed acceptable (whatever they are.)

 

Can Hollywood put a moratorium on sequels using “the ___”? Reminds me when originally Iron Man 3 was going to do that. Yeech 

 

 

 

Technically, is it a sequel or a soft reboot/forget the original/this is the REAL version - I thought it was the latter, but heck, even I'm not sure...

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Jungle Cruise	T-14	Jacksonville	6	28	5,123	25	19	0.49%
		Phoenix	5	22	4,165	14	14	0.34%
		Raleigh	7	26	3,288	25	24	0.76%
Jungle Cruise Total			18	76	12,576	64	57	0.51%
Old	T-7	Jacksonville	5	10	1,921	9	9	0.47%
		Phoenix	5	11	1,734	18	18	1.04%
		Raleigh	8	14	1,324	9	9	0.68%
Old Total			18	35	4,979	36	36	0.72%
Snake Eyes	T-7	Jacksonville	5	16	2,916	19	3	0.65%
		Phoenix	6	11	2,540	27	13	1.06%
		Raleigh	8	18	2,306	34	6	1.47%
Snake Eyes Total			19	45	7,762	80	22	1.03%
Space Jam (Friday)	T-1	Jacksonville	5	60	9,065	705	281	7.78%
		Phoenix	7	60	7,728	683	260	8.84%
		Raleigh	8	72	8,185	797	179	9.74%
Space Jam (Friday) Total			20	192	24,978	2,185	720	8.75%
Suicide Squad	T-21	Jacksonville	5	20	3,795	32	32	0.84%
		Phoenix	5	17	3,597	52	52	1.45%
		Raleigh	7	23	2,986	56	56	1.88%
Suicide Squad Total			17	60	10,378	140	140	1.35%

 

Movie	Day	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Jungle Cruise	T-13	Jacksonville	5	27	4,984	27	4	0.54%
		Phoenix	6	23	4,213	14	0	0.33%
		Raleigh	7	26	3,288	32	7	0.97%
Jungle Cruise Total			18	76	12,485	73	11	0.58%
Old	T-6	Jacksonville	5	10	1,921	15	6	0.78%
		Phoenix	6	12	1,788	21	3	1.17%
		Raleigh	8	14	1,324	13	4	0.98%
Old Total			19	36	5,033	49	13	0.97%
Snake Eyes	T-6	Jacksonville	5	16	2,916	21	2	0.72%
		Phoenix	6	11	2,540	29	2	1.14%
		Raleigh	8	17	2,215	45	11	2.03%
Snake Eyes Total			19	44	7,671	95	15	1.24%
Space Jam (Friday)	T-0	Jacksonville	5	65	10,513	1,557	852	14.81%
		Phoenix	7	63	8,446	1,286	603	15.23%
		Raleigh	8	74	8,319	1,590	793	19.11%
Space Jam (Friday) Total			20	202	27,278	4,433	2,248	16.25%
Suicide Squad	T-20	Jacksonville	5	20	3,795	40	8	1.05%
		Phoenix	6	18	3,651	57	5	1.56%
		Raleigh	7	23	2,986	68	12	2.28%
Suicide Squad Total			18	61	10,432	165	25	1.58%

 

Pretty slow day for anything not named Space Jam.  Added ten more shows since yesterday!

 

1.15x of F9 (8.2m)

.60x of BW (7.9m)

 

Comparison chart for final runs.  BW and F9 are day-of sales (afternoon - early morning) while Space Jam is a full day of sales.

 

Movie	Day	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Black Widow	Late	Jacksonville	6	76	12,095	2,333	555	19.29%
		Phoenix	7	77	10,692	1,881	270	17.59%
		Raleigh	8	74	8,303	3,148	746	37.91%
Black Widow Total			21	227	31,090	7,362	1,571	23.68%
F9: The Fast Saga	Late	Jacksonville	6	47	8,312	1,155	302	13.90%
		Phoenix	7	58	8,498	1,150	188	13.53%
		Raleigh	8	46	4,985	1,531	289	30.71%
F9: The Fast Saga Total			21	151	21,795	3,836	779	17.60%
Space Jam (Friday)	T-0	Jacksonville	5	65	10,513	1,557	852	14.81%
		Phoenix	7	63	8,446	1,286	603	15.23%
		Raleigh	8	74	8,319	1,590	793	19.11%
Space Jam (Friday) Total			20	202	27,278	4,433	2,248	16.25%

[Tinalera]

7 hours ago, Porthos said:

I was just doing some thinking and I might be underestimating how much Ontario is gonna matter (it has to do with theater/screen closures in the US affecting the percentage of the DOM market that Ontario makes up).  But before I really commit to this, I'd like to ask @Tinalera @cax16 and @Jason if they know if there's been any theater closures in Ontario.  Minor chains that might not have survived.  Cineplex not reopening all of its locations.  That sort of thing.

 

Actually matters a teeny bit around the edges and it might make me want to bump up my comp from dividing by 0.96 to dividing by 0.952.

 

Not the hugest difference in the world, but something I'm a little bit interested in if anyone knows the answer.

 

EDIT:::

 

The reason it might matter is this.  If Ontario made up 4 - 4.5 percent of the 2019 (and before) DOM market and if the DOM everywhere outside of Ontario has shrunk thanks to theater closures (and we know it has thanks to reports of folks losing their locals + screen loss information from Deadline + anecdotal tracking info comparing our tracks from 2019 to 2021) then Ontario will make up a slightly larger section of the 2021 DOM market.  The analogy is taking the same amount of stuff out of a larger pie versus a smaller one.  The percentage is gonna change when taken out of a smaller pie.

 

Not a huge amount, no.  But enough that I'm actually slightly curious.  Mind, if there has been theater closures in Ontario, then I ain't gonna bother.  Might not even bother if there aren't, frankly.  But might persuade me to use the higher end of Jat's estimate about how much Ontario matters rather than the lower one.

 

 

I think we will have to see how minor theatres are effected. I know we have a community theatre near where I live which shows movies after they've been in theatres a bit, they are still open, advertising Space Jam for July 31. I don't think any Cineplexes in Toronto have been affected, but I can't speak for outside of Toronto. I may do some research into how many theatres Ontario actually has and what's been affected. 

[Tinalera]

Space Jam Taken July 16 for Shows starting July 16

Toronto Ontario

 

(Note VIP pricing is 19.95 here, Regular showing 17.95)

 

Yonge Dundas

 

Total Shows 16 (4 VIP, 12 Regular)

  

Total Seats 308 (Vip) 1709 (Regular)

 

Seats Sold 57 (Vip) (+18)  230 Regular (+163)

 

 

Yonge Eglinton 

 

Total Shows 8 Regular

 

Total seats   2027

 

Total Sold     175(+84)

 

 

Yorkdale

 

Total Shows 8 Regular

 

Total seats 1839

 

Seats sold  323 (+90)

 

 

Queensway

 

Total shows 10 Regular

 

total seats 1523

 

Seats sold 485 (+232)

 

Still selling pretty well, I expect lots of walk ups as well.

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

With Suicide Squad, The HBO Max release isn't going to change much, like it didn't with any other recent WB release (both the flops and successes). If it does bad in the boxoffice, I expect poor numbers on HBO Max too. The people who didn't like the first one and expect this to be as awful as the first probably wouldn't watch this in the cinemas regardless.

Obviously an at-home option changes things. It changes a lot, we know this already. 

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, Krissykins said:

I’m going to guess preview numbers:

 

Escape Room 2: $1.2m

Exact match  

[lorddemaxus]

11 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Obviously an at-home option changes things. It changes a lot, we know this already. 

We've seen so far it doesn't affect much unless you think movies like In the Heights or Those Who Wish Me Dead would not have flopped had they not been theatrical exclusive. We've seen so far, movies that flop in the box-office, also flop on the service.

[Krissykins]

40 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

We've seen so far it doesn't affect much unless you think movies like In the Heights or Those Who Wish Me Dead would not have flopped had they not been theatrical exclusive. We've seen so far, movies that flop in the box-office, also flop on the service.

The service haven’t released any exact numbers yet and they don’t provide for Neilsen. 
 

Samba TV aren’t reputable. 

[keysersoze123]

Morning BW is catching up. But delta is high. Also there was an issue with $ value for MTC1 as shows with ticket prices like 8.89 was not working(some recent change broke the tracker). 

 

SJ2

MTC1 - 124907/480276 1415129.72 3189 shows

MTC2 - 115591/426929 1105673.96 3370 shows

 

BW

MTC1 - 43924/859659 609908.42 4952 shows (OD finish 442690/1236881 5059891.00)

MTC2 - 28880/670956 319694.58 5014 shows (OD finish 350320/1051542 3801320.78)

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

The service haven’t released any exact numbers yet and they don’t provide for Neilsen. 
 

Samba TV aren’t reputable. 

I have started liking Samba numbers over Nielsen. Nielsen seems very exaggerated

 

[charlie Jatinder]

SJ2 is already 26%. I will be really surprised if it go over 50%. That will be extraordinary.

 

In fact even 40% will be quite insane.

[keysersoze123]

I think SJ2 is headed for 450K between 2 MTC. Should be enough for 11-12m OD. BW probably 200-220K between 2 chains and about 7.5-8m 2nd friday. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Also @keysersoze123 how many theaters are playing SJ2? Asking because theater count is just 3950, in last few weeks films were 4.2k range IIRC without Ontario.

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Also @keysersoze123 how many theaters are playing SJ2? Asking because theater count is just 3950, in last few weeks films were 4.2k range IIRC without Ontario.

 

I am tracking 417 theatres in MTC1 and 306 in MTC2. 

[Boxofficerules]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

Exact match  

Congrats.

[katnisscinnaplex]

2 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Pretty slow day for anything not named Space Jam.  Added ten more shows since yesterday!

 

1.15x of F9 (8.2m)

.60x of BW (7.9m)

 

Comparison chart for final runs.  BW and F9 are day-of sales (afternoon - early morning) while Space Jam is a full day of sales.

 

 

Movie	Day	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Black Widow	Late	Jacksonville	6	76	12,095	2,333	555	19.29%
		Phoenix	7	77	10,692	1,881	270	17.59%
		Raleigh	8	74	8,303	3,148	746	37.91%
Black Widow Total			21	227	31,090	7,362	1,571	23.68%
F9: The Fast Saga	Late	Jacksonville	6	47	8,312	1,155	302	13.90%
		Phoenix	7	58	8,498	1,150	188	13.53%
		Raleigh	8	46	4,985	1,531	289	30.71%
F9: The Fast Saga Total			21	151	21,795	3,836	779	17.60%
Space Jam (Friday)	T-0	Jacksonville	5	65	10,513	1,557	852	14.81%
		Phoenix	7	63	8,446	1,286	603	15.23%
		Raleigh	8	74	8,319	1,590	793	19.11%
Space Jam (Friday) Total			20	202	27,278	4,433	2,248	16.25%

 

Just noticing that SJ more than doubled it's opening day sales between yesterday morning and this morning 

[cax16]

4 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

..

Edited July 16, 2021 by cax16
.

[SnokesLegs]

I hope people aren’t going to declare The Suicide Squad a failure when it inevitably opens lower than the 2016 film. There’s precisely zero chance it opens or finishes that high, but I don’t think anyone should be expecting it to, nor do I think WB is under any illusions that it will. The negativity around this film seems oddly pervasive on here, whereas everywhere else I look seems to be more hyped for it.

 

Also, nobody watched the first film for the Joker’s 5-10 minutes of screen time, so his absence won’t affect it one iota. No Jared Leto will probably help it if anything…

Edited July 16, 2021 by SnokesLegs

[Curtis1986]

I am seeing some heavy walk ups for SJ at my local AMC. Anybody else?