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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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14 hours ago, Eric E Coyote said:

The Suicide Squad Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting (Thu)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 35 222 8111 2.74%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 9

 

Comp

0.353x of F9 T-17 (2.51M)

0.136x of Black Widow (1.8M)

The Suicide Squad Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting (Thu)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 35 235 8111 2.90%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 13

 

Comp

0.335x of F9 T-16 (2.38M)

0.133x of Black Widow T-16 (1.75M)

 

Yeah this needs to pick up some momentum pronto, but I don't want to harp on it too much. We already argued about it last night and it's too early to pick this up again.

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Old
Tracking Date Showtime Date Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
7/20/2021 7/22/2021 0 8 40 885 4.52%
7/20/2021 7/23/2021 0 6 78 992 7.86%

 

Thursday up 43%, Friday up 47%.

 

Snake Eyes
Tracking Date Showtime Date Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
7/20/2021 7/22/2021 0 6 26 554 4.69%
7/20/2021 7/23/2021 0 6 33 1295 2.55%

 

With showtimes finally added for the other theater, sales are up 53% for Thursday and 200% for Friday. Still behind Old, but there's more potential to catch up. 

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On 7/19/2021 at 11:14 PM, Porthos said:

 

The Suicide Squad Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

81

13672

13952

280

2.01%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

12

 

Day 6 Unadjusted Comp - PROBABLY LOL AT THIS POINT - USE AT OWN RISK

 

   %

 

Sold Day 6

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

F9

40.76

 

48

687

 

0/93

13414/14101

4.87%

 

2.89m

 

3.03m

BW

15.81

 

73

1771

 

0/105

16847/18618

9.51%

 

2.09m

 

2.19m

ONTARIO COMP NOTE: Ont Comp is the number given in the Comp column/0.955 to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market.

 

Day 6 Adjusted Comp - CERTAINLY LOL AT THIS POINT - USE AT OWN RISK

 

   %

 

Sold Day 6

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

AQP II

68.81

 

42

404

 

4/28

939/1343

30.08%

 

3.30m

 

3.46m

TSS (adj)

---

 

12

278

 

0/81

13554/13832

2.01%

 

---

 

---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track.

 

===

 

Gonna sync up all comps to T-x starting tomorrow; expect shifts in comps, except for AQP II.

 

The Suicide Squad Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

81

13647

13952

305

2.19%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

25

 

T-16 Unadjusted Comp - PROBABLY LOL AT THIS POINT - USE AT OWN RISK

 

   %

 

Sold T-16

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

F9

36.88

 

49

827

 

0/91

13323/14150

5.84%

 

2.62m

 

2.74m

ONTARIO COMP NOTE: Ont Comp is the number given in the Comp column/0.955 to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market.

PRE-SALE NOTE:  F9 tickets were on sale for two days longer at this point in the track than TSS have been so far.

 

T-16 Adjusted Comp #1 - CERTAINLY LOL AT THIS POINT - USE AT OWN RISK

 

   %

 

Sold T-16

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

AQP II

70.63

 

25

429

 

5/28

914/1343

30.08%

 

3.39m

 

3.55m

TSS (AQP adj)

---

 

25

303

 

0/81

13529/13832

2.19%

 

---

 

---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (QP adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track.

 

T-16 Adjusted Comp #2 - CERTAINLY LOL AT THIS POINT - USE AT OWN RISK

 

   %

 

Sold T-16

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

BW

13.33

 

84

2273

 

0/117

16861/19134

11.88%

 

1.76m

 

1.84m

TSS (BW adj)

---

 

25

303

 

0/69

11407/11710

2.59%

 

---

 

---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (BW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE:  BW tickets were on sale for nine days longer than at this point in the track TSS have been so far.

 

===

 

All comps are now synced up to T-x. Because of the disparity in pre-sale length, both the F9 and BW comps suffered.  Setting that aside, TSS actually stopped the bleeding tonight, as its percentage of sales against all three films was... decent.  Which is a damn site better than it had been.  Is it starting to turn the corner? Only time will tell.

 

Also, I remembered last night that I should have been adjusting the comp against Black Widow, as at the time several theaters had unreliable seat maps and thus were not being tracked.  However, this only resulted in an over-count of two whole seats (that is, I was giving The Suicide Squad two more seats in a BW comp than I should have), which is an absolutely negligible error.  Still, it'll matter for about the next week and a half, so correcting for the error starting tonight.

Edited by Porthos
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I'm fairly dubious of the theory behind using Hobbs & Shaw as a comp, even though I'm the one who broached the possibility of it.  Even so, if I comped TSS against H&S, then I get... 8.10m as a comp (yes, pre-sales for H&S were that poor for a long time).

 

However, we've seen time and time again that Sacramento is running hot compared to the rest of DOM.  So far 2021 comps are off about 18 to 21 percent from what pre-2020 comps would suggest. With Ontario back, if I guesstimate that comps are now off by about 15 to 17 percent compared to what they were pre-2020, then I get something like 6.72m to 6.88m.  Which is a lot better than current comping is suggesting.

 

Don't ask me how likely this is.  Just noting what a Hobbs & Shaw like pre-sale pattern would suggest for The Suicide Squad.

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42 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I'm fairly dubious of the theory behind using Hobbs & Shaw as a comp, even though I'm the one who broached the possibility of it.  Even so, if I comped TSS against H&S, then I get... 8.10m as a comp (yes, pre-sales for H&S were that poor for a long time).

 

However, we've seen time and time again that Sacramento is running hot compared to the rest of DOM.  So far 2021 comps are off about 18 to 21 percent from what pre-2020 comps would suggest. With Ontario back, if I guesstimate that comps are now off by about 15 to 17 percent compared to what they were pre-2020, then I get something like 6.72m to 6.88m.  Which is a lot better than current comping is suggesting.

 

Don't ask me how likely this is.  Just noting what a Hobbs & Shaw like pre-sale pattern would suggest for The Suicide Squad.


Is that 6.72 to 6.88 number just for preview shows? I mean Thursday night? Seems improbable as of right now. There’s so little buzz for the Suicide Squad. Seems like nobody wants to watch another film with these characters. Do you have the numbers for Friday? Thank you! 

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On 7/20/2021 at 9:33 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

 

Movie Day Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
Jungle Cruise T-9 Jacksonville 5 27 4,984 44 2 0.88%
    Phoenix 6 23 4,213 40 8 0.95%
    Raleigh 7 26 3,288 38 6 1.16%
Jungle Cruise Total     18 76 12,485 122 16 0.98%
Old T-2 Jacksonville 5 10 1,921 26 0 1.35%
    Phoenix 6 12 1,788 62 10 3.47%
    Raleigh 8 15 1,381 44 22 3.19%
Old Total     19 37 5,090 132 32 2.59%
Snake Eyes T-2 Jacksonville 5 16 2,916 74 22 2.54%
    Phoenix 6 11 2,540 57 14 2.24%
    Raleigh 8 18 2,263 98 28 4.33%
Snake Eyes Total     19 45 7,719 229 64 2.97%
Suicide Squad T-16 Jacksonville 5 20 3,795 67 8 1.77%
    Phoenix 6 18 3,651 73 7 2.00%
    Raleigh 7 23 2,986 93 1 3.11%
Suicide Squad Total     18 61 10,432 233 16 2.23%
The Green Knight T-9 Jacksonville 6 9 1,213 5 -2 0.41%
    Phoenix 9 11 1,100 13 4 1.18%
    Raleigh 5 10 1,255 5 2 0.40%
The Green Knight Total     20 30 3,568 23 4 0.64%

 

Movie Day Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
Jungle Cruise T-8 Jacksonville 5 27 4,984 45 1 0.90%
    Phoenix 6 23 4,221 45 5 1.07%
    Raleigh 7 28 3,374 42 4 1.24%
Jungle Cruise Total     18 78 12,579 132 10 1.05%
Old T-1 Jacksonville 5 12 2,687 49 23 1.82%
    Phoenix 6 13 1,850 87 25 4.70%
    Raleigh 8 14 1,307 66 22 5.05%
Old Total     19 39 5,844 202 70 3.46%
Snake Eyes T-1 Jacksonville 5 18 3,118 117 43 3.75%
    Phoenix 6 15 3,064 90 33 2.94%
    Raleigh 8 17 2,182 105 15 4.81%
Snake Eyes Total     19 50 8,364 312 91 3.73%
Suicide Squad T-15 Jacksonville 6 21 3,964 68 1 1.72%
    Phoenix 6 18 3,651 75 2 2.05%
    Raleigh 7 23 2,986 94 1 3.15%
Suicide Squad Total     19 62 10,601 237 4 2.24%
The Green Knight T-8 Jacksonville 6 9 1,213 13 8 1.07%
    Phoenix 5 7 895 13 5 1.45%
    Raleigh 5 10 1,256 10 5 0.80%
The Green Knight Total     16 26 3,364 36 18 1.07%

 

Comps:

 

Old T-1

Forever Purge - 1.496x (1.99m)

Escape Room 2 - 1.346x (1.61m)

Average - 1.8m 

 

Snake Eyes T-1

Hitman's Wife - 3.216x (2.62m)

F9 - 0.143x (1.02m)

Average - 1.81m

 

Awful day for Suicide Squad.  The only movies I've tracked this far out were F9 and BW - they average to a 2.42m preview at this point.

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Industry tracking from Variety:

 

Snake Eyes $15-16m

Old $12-15m

 

They expect Space Jam to keep hold of #1 with just a 45-50% drop (!?). 

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3 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Industry tracking from Variety:

 

Snake Eyes $15-16m

Old $12-15m

 

They expect Space Jam to keep hold of #1 with just a 45-50% drop (!?). 

Would make sense - it's a kids movie and they just spent two close NBA Finals games talking all about it.

 

I think $15 million is reasonable for both Old and Snake Eyes. They both certainly didn't skimp on marketing during the Finals, I'll say that.

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45 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Industry tracking from Variety:

 

Snake Eyes $15-16m

Old $12-15m

 

They expect Space Jam to keep hold of #1 with just a 45-50% drop (!?). 

 

Although after being utterly burned last week with their certainty (just like Deadline), I appreciate the total uncertainty in the headline:)...even has a question mark...https://variety.com/2021/film/box-office/box-office-snake-eyes-old-opening-projections-1235023575/

 

"Can ‘Space Jam’ Dunk on M. Night Shyamalan’s ‘Old’ and ‘Snake Eyes’ at the Box Office?"

 

PS - They have Space Jam at $15-$18M...and mention Snake Eyes could go over $20M and win, so they have no clue on Snake Eyes...Although, by not mentioning Black Widow, that would seem to indicate they see that movie slipping to #4 with another drop of at least 50% (b/c 50% would slot it into a 2 way race for 3rd with Old with its projected numbers)...

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7 hours ago, TheCinephile said:


Is that 6.72 to 6.88 number just for preview shows? I mean Thursday night? Seems improbable as of right now. There’s so little buzz for the Suicide Squad. Seems like nobody wants to watch another film with these characters. Do you have the numbers for Friday? Thank you! 

I only do previews, and yes it is very improbable.  I floated a theory/analogy a couple of days ago and I wanted to see where the logic went if it was right.

 

It very likely isn't right.  At the same time, I was curious, so I decided to see where the analogy would lead me if I followed it to its logical conclusion.

 

At the same time, I have doubts that TSS will under-perform so badly as to only get 3m in previews, so it is what it is at the moment.

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54 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

Could Space Jam win the weekend? Are both new openers doing that bad in Pre sales?

I don't think so.

13.5M-14M for SJ2.

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13 hours ago, DAJK said:

@Shawnare you planning on posting an updated long range forecast anytime soon?

Yup, we'll probably have one this week.

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3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I only do previews, and yes it is very improbable.  I floated a theory/analogy a couple of days ago and I wanted to see where the logic went if it was right.

 

It very likely isn't right.  At the same time, I was curious, so I decided to see where the analogy would lead me if I followed it to its logical conclusion.

 

At the same time, I have doubts that TSS will under-perform so badly as to only get 3m in previews, so it is what it is at the moment.

It may be worth throwing in an adjusted H&S comp though. Just as another possible scenario of how things could go, especially given the surprise boost yesterday.

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4 minutes ago, Menor said:

It may be worth throwing in an adjusted H&S comp though. Just as another possible scenario of how things could go, especially given the surprise boost yesterday.

 

If I do I'll have to actually sit down and figure out how much to adjust for the differing conditions between now and pre-2020 as I now think I have enough evidence to say that all pre-2020 comps out of Sacto need adjusting due to *waves hands around* everything out there.

 

Since Ontario is back, maybe chop off 16% as that would be in the mid-ish range of (18 to 22 percent) - (4 percent)? 

 

I'll chew it over in other words. :)

Edited by Porthos
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So I hadn't checked out the TSS main thread yesterday, but apparently the review embargo is now July 28th.  Which, frankly, makes a hell of a lot more sense.

 

Does mean we won't get the spectacle of seeing what happens when a review embargo is lifted two plus weeks out, but que sera sera

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20 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I only do previews, and yes it is very improbable.  I floated a theory/analogy a couple of days ago and I wanted to see where the logic went if it was right.

 

It very likely isn't right.  At the same time, I was curious, so I decided to see where the analogy would lead me if I followed it to its logical conclusion.

 

At the same time, I have doubts that TSS will under-perform so badly as to only get 3m in previews, so it is what it is at the moment.


Thank you for answering! 

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At long last, Cinemark has updated its DBOX display to actually show the DBOX seats in normal shows!

 

...which does explain why I was getting negative numbers for TSS sales today, lol. 

 

...and now the default price on a normal showing with DBOX seats available is shown as the default price. Which makes scraping the actual price require a browser simulator rather than a normal scraper. 

Edited by Menor
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