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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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Final update:

 

Old:

 

7:00 Dolby: 53/236 (+13)

8:15: 12/77 (+3)

9:45 Dolby: 9/236 (+2)

Total: 74/549 (+18)

 

Comps:

 

27% of F9 Previews (1.9M)

36% of AQP2 Previews (1.7M)

137% of Escape Room 2 Previews (1.6M)

370% of Forever Purge Previews (4.8M)

 

Last minute sales for the first Dolby show have been good, and there's still over an hour and a half to go with walkups. I'll bump the range up to 1.4-1.7M. If either new release beats tracking and takes the #1 spot, it'll be Old.

 

Snake Eyes:

 

7:15 IMAX: 21/372 (+3)

8:00: 22/107 (+3)

9:30: 7/40 (+1)

Total: 50/519 (+7)

 

Comps:

 

8% of Black Widow Previews (1.1M)

18% of F9 Previews (1.3M)

24% of AQP2 Previews (1.2M)

 

Yeah, this is still looking pretty dire. 1.2-1.3M.

 

Joe Bell: 4/67 (+2)

 

While I don't have the energy to take ten minutes and look for exact comps, this is selling significantly less than other speciality fare has been this summer (Roadrunner, Summer of Soul, Zola, Sparks). Sub-1M feels likely despite over 1k theaters.

 

 

 

 

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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Jungle Cruise Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total 29 687 4.22%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 18 1015 1.77%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
131 10 11053 1.19% 15 51

 

Showings added: 1

Seats added: 45

 

Cruella comp: 1.64M

Jungle Cruise Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total 31 687 4.51%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 30 1015 2.96%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
159 28 11053 1.44% 15 51

 

Cruella comp: 1.70M

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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Suicide Squad Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total 80 661 12.10%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 36 753 4.78%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
258 14 10784 2.39% 15 49

 

Showings added: 1

Seats added: 202

 

Black Widow comp: 2.15M

F9 comp: 4.08M

AQP2 comp: 5.89M

Suicide Squad Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total 87 661 13.16%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 36 753 4.78%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
266 8 9916 2.68% 15 47

 

Showings removed: 2

Seats removed: 868

 

Black Widow comp: 2.14M

F9 comp: 3.98M

AQP2 comp: 5.49M

 

Need to see some signs of life very soon...

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8 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

 

Movie Day Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
Old T-0 Jacksonville 5 13 2,752 81 32 2.94%
    Phoenix 7 14 1,949 148 61 7.59%
    Raleigh 8 14 1,300 99 33 7.62%
Old Total     20 41 6,001 328 126 5.47%
Snake Eyes T-0 Jacksonville 5 18 3,118 132 15 4.23%
    Phoenix 7 16 3,110 138 48 4.44%
    Raleigh 8 17 2,182 144 39 6.60%
Snake Eyes Total     20 51 8,410 414 102 4.92%

 

Movie Day Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
Old Late Jacksonville 5 13 2,752 181 100 6.58%
    Phoenix 7 16 2,031 264 116 13.00%
    Raleigh 8 14 1,300 215 116 16.54%
Old Total     20 43 6,083 660 332 10.85%
Snake Eyes Late Jacksonville 5 18 3,118 217 85 6.96%
    Phoenix 7 16 3,110 197 59 6.33%
    Raleigh 8 17 2,182 273 129 12.51%
Snake Eyes Total     20 51 8,410 687 273 8.17%

 

Final update for previews

 

Comps:

 

Old (Same day sales)

Forever Purge - 1.642x (2.18m)

Escape Room 2 - 1.454x (1.74m)

Average - 1.96m 

 

Earlier guess was 1.8m and sales have improved against the two comps.  I'll settle with 1.85m which would be above expectations and what others are seeing.

 

Snake Eyes (Same day sales)

F9 - 0.179x (1.27m)

 

Unfortunately I didn't get a late update for HWB but it improved against F9.  I'll stick with 1.5m for tonight.

 

Joe Bell is up to 26 sales now.  Roadrunner had 184 for comparison.  No way we get a preview number and I'm going under a million for the weekend as well.

Edited by katnisscinnaplex
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35 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Old is looking much stronger most of the theaters I'm sampling across Canada (Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto). I'll give a full update tonight.

Yea when I was seeing sales of old vs snake eyes for my counts, Old definitely seemed to have more of a surge than Snake Eyes. Which surprises me a bit because I would think both would be about equal if for no other reason we in Ontario are still fresh into 3rd stage, so I thought just the "going out" would be a boost.

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1 hour ago, Tinalera said:

Yea when I was seeing sales of old vs snake eyes for my counts, Old definitely seemed to have more of a surge than Snake Eyes. Which surprises me a bit because I would think both would be about equal if for no other reason we in Ontario are still fresh into 3rd stage, so I thought just the "going out" would be a boost.

With east coast shows starting, it's looking like Old is nearly doubling Snake Eyes in terms of number of tickets sold. However, Snake Eyes has a lot more screens in IMAX/PLF so it's average ticket price is much higher, meaning their numbers will be closer. I still think Old has the edge though.

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Old had about 20 people at my 7pm XD showing. I’m checked the 715 before movie started and that also had roughly 20.

 

The 950 has 13 tickets and 1005 has 8 seats. 
 

I quite enjoyed the film but it’s The Happening 2.0. A slow plunge into absurdity and dread—low on actual “scares”. The ending drags but MIGHT save the film from F cinemascore only because it shifts gears. 
 

Trailers were Malignant, Candyman, Don’t Breathe, Halloween Kills, Respect (which had best audience reaction)

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23 hours ago, Snake Eric said:

Old Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting (Thu)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 25 263 3943 6.67%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 33

Total Seats Sold Today: 73

 

Comp

0.174x of Conjuring 3 1 Day Before Release (1.71M)

1.765x of Forever Purge T-1 (2.35M)

1.027x of Escape Room 2 T-1 (1.23M)

 

Yeesh.

Old Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count (Thu)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 25 854 3943 21.66%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 591

 

Comp

0.434x of Quiet Place 2 Thursday Previews (2.08M)

0.333x of Conjuring 3 (3.26M)

1.167x of Forever Purge (1.55M)

1.477x of Escape Room 2 (1.77M)

 

Purge had a similar explosion as this did on its final day, so I think 1.5M previews sounds about right.

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23 hours ago, Snake Eric said:

Snake Eyes Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting (Thu)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 36 260 6111 4.25%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 37

Total Seats Sold Today: 57

 

Comp

0.111x of Mortal Kombat's Fri 1 Day Before Release (1.01M)

0.074x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-1 (1.43M)

0.326x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-1 (2.51M)

 

Blech.

Snake Eyes Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count (Thu)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 36 652 6111 4.25%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 392

 

Comp

0.197x of Mortal Kombat (1.8M)

0.331x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu (1.59M)

0.126x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri (2.44M)

1.594x of Cruella's Thu (2.23M)

0.512x of Cruella's Thu+Fri (3.95M)

0.144x of F9 (1.02M)

 

This is a little all over the place, but a gun to my head guess has me at somewhere in the high 1s?

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Ok so here's how my locals are shaking out for the early evening sets. One theatre has canceled In The Heights late shows to add another screen of Old, so we'll see how that plays out.

 

Old - 46/52 (one theater)

         36/289 (other theater)

 

(Sorry all my comps are from 2019, I didn't track theaters in this city before then, and I stopped during the COVID shutdowns)

59% Glass - 2.18M

92% Pet Semetary - 2.12M

54% John Wick 3 - 3.19M

61% Zombieland Double Tap - 1.7M

 

 

Snake Eyes (IMAX) - 60/431

 

82% Terminator: Dark Fate - 1.93M

60% Dark Phoenix - 3M

38% King of the Monsters - 2.39M

 

 

Snake Eyes is only playing at one of the local theaters for Thursday, while Old has 2 markets. So that makes 60 IMAX tickets for Snake Eyes, and 82 regular tickets for Old. Given the higher ticket price for Snake Eyes, I think the math works out that it's making slightly more money so far, but so far Old is outselling it by far for the late-night shows. 

 

I don't know what to say, everything is looking rather strong for the time being. I wouldn't be surprised to see my area over-indexing a bit; movie business has been pretty solid lately, people are still on a high from the re-openings which happened barely a month ago. Still, These would suggest around 2M for each at the moment, but I'll do a (very quick) update once late night shows are all in.

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23 hours ago, Snake Eric said:

Jungle Cruise Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting (Thu)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 37 77 7571 1.02%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 9

 

Comp

0.475x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-8 (3.66M)

 

I mean...yeah that would be a good preview number, but I doubt it will go that high just judging by how muted other people's numbers are. So...ick.

Jungle Cruise Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting (Thu)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 37 90 7571 1.19%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 13

 

Comp

0.113x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-7 (2.2M)

0.479x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-7 (3.69M)

 

Decided to add in one more comp to all this just for funsies. I'll also likely add in a Snake Eyes comp tomorrow when we get preview results.

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23 hours ago, Snake Eric said:

The Suicide Squad Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting (Thu)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 35 249 8111 3.07%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 14

 

Comp

0.141x of Black Widow T-15 (1.86M)

 

I couldn't do F9 as I forgot to track it on that day, so it'll pop back tomorrow.

 

Still very small numbers, but it did perk up on the BW side of things, which might be a sign of good things to come. But if not...at least Shang-Chi has a greater chance to break out? Maybe? Possibly?

The Suicide Squad Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting (Thu)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 35 263 8111 3.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 14

 

Comp

0.375x of F9 T-14 (2.66M)

0.142x of Black Widow T-14 (1.88M)

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23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Suicide Squad Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

81

13635

13952

317

2.27%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

12

 

T-15 Unadjusted Comp - PROBABLY LOL AT THIS POINT - USE AT OWN RISK

 

   %

 

Sold T-15

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

F9

35.30

 

71

898

 

0/91

13252/14150

6.35%

 

2.51m

 

2.624m

ONTARIO COMP NOTE: Ont Comp is the number given in the Comp column/0.955 to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market.

PRE-SALE NOTE:  F9 tickets were on sale for two days longer at this point in the track than TSS have been so far.

 

T-15 Adjusted Comp #1 - CERTAINLY LOL AT THIS POINT - USE AT OWN RISK

 

   %

 

Sold T-15

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

AQP II

68.48

 

31

460

 

5/38

1399/1859

24.74%

 

3.29m

 

3.44m

TSS (AQP adj)

---

 

12

315

 

0/81

13502/13817

2.28%

 

---

 

---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (QP adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track.

 

T-15 Adjusted Comp #2 - CERTAINLY LOL AT THIS POINT - USE AT OWN RISK

 

   %

 

Sold T-15

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

BW

13.22

 

108

2381

 

0/117

16753/19134

12.44%

 

1.75m

 

1.83m

TSS (BW adj)

---

 

12

315

 

0/69

11395/11710

2.69%

 

---

 

---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (BW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE:  BW tickets were on sale for nine days longer than at this point in the track TSS have been so far.

 

===

 

Sigh.

 

Still mulling over an extremely unofficial H&S comp as I really am uncertain of the utility, but it would be, after all adjusting: 6.52m

 

(H&S outsold TSS 19 seats to 11 seats on T-15 [after adjusting for new sources of tracking info], which isn't exactly a great sign for TSS)

 

The Suicide Squad Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

81

13628

13952

324

2.32%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

7

 

T-14 Unadjusted Comp - PROBABLY LOL AT THIS POINT - USE AT OWN RISK

 

   %

 

Sold T-14

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

F9

33.44

 

71

969

 

0/91

13181/14150

6.85%

 

2.37m

 

2.49m

ONTARIO COMP NOTE: Ont Comp is the number given in the Comp column/0.955 to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market.

PRE-SALE NOTE:  F9 tickets were on sale for two days longer at this point in the track than TSS have been so far.

 

T-14 Adjusted Comp #1

 

   %

 

Sold T-14

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

AQP II

62.28

 

54

514

 

6/63

2214/2728

18.84%

 

2.99m

 

3.13m

TSS (AQP adj)

---

 

7

322

 

0/81

13495/13817

2.33%

 

---

 

---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (QP adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track.

 

T-14 Adjusted Comp #2 

 

   %

 

Sold T-14

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

BW

12.67

 

106

2487

 

0/117

16647/19134

12.44%

 

1.67m

 

1.75m

TSS (BW adj)

---

 

7

315

 

0/69

11388/11710

2.75%

 

---

 

---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (BW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE:  BW tickets were on sale for nine days longer than at this point in the track TSS have been so far.

 

EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP:  1.25098x of Hobbs & Shaw at T-14* [6.17m after adjusting for pandemic era environment]

* at theaters/showings I had the same level of tracking info.

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2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

The Suicide Squad Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

81

13628

13952

324

2.32%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

7

 

T-14 Unadjusted Comp - PROBABLY LOL AT THIS POINT - USE AT OWN RISK

 

   %

 

Sold T-14

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

F9

33.44

 

71

969

 

0/91

13181/14150

6.85%

 

2.37m

 

2.49m

ONTARIO COMP NOTE: Ont Comp is the number given in the Comp column/0.955 to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market.

PRE-SALE NOTE:  F9 tickets were on sale for two days longer at this point in the track than TSS have been so far.

 

T-14 Adjusted Comp #1

 

   %

 

Sold T-14

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

AQP II

62.28

 

54

514

 

6/63

2214/2728

18.84%

 

2.99m

 

3.13m

TSS (AQP adj)

---

 

7

322

 

0/81

13495/13817

2.33%

 

---

 

---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (QP adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track.

 

T-14 Adjusted Comp #2 

 

   %

 

Sold T-14

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

BW

12.67

 

106

2487

 

0/117

16647/19134

12.44%

 

1.67m

 

1.75m

TSS (BW adj)

---

 

7

315

 

0/69

11388/11710

2.75%

 

---

 

---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (BW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE:  BW tickets were on sale for nine days longer than at this point in the track TSS have been so far.

 

EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP:  1.25098x of Hobbs & Shaw at T-14* [6.17m after adjusting for pandemic era environment]

* at theaters/showings I had the same level of tracking info.

Hobbs and Shaw comp is real good and considering it's a August release hmmm

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40 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Hobbs and Shaw comp is real good and considering it's a August release hmmm


The problem is, there’s no real reason for a superhero flick to be like a spin off of a Fast and Furious movie.

 

I suppose if we stretch it, we can come up with rationales for why it might fit.  But that reads more hoping than expecting to me.

 

Could it happen?  Sure.  It’s why I’m bothering to supply the info.  Is it likely?  Well I didn’t track lower selling superhero movies, so I really couldn’t say.  But my instincts are… skeptical, I’ll put it that way.

 

(my skeptical instincts have been wrong before, it must be noted)

Edited by Porthos
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Quick update before bedtime. My city must be overindexing, because if I pool all 3 locations playing Old, the data here would suggest 2.25M previews almost on the dot. That being said, I am sure this is simply an overperformance here, but I guess we'll see in the morning.

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4 hours ago, Porthos said:


The problem is, there’s no real reason for a superhero flick to be like a spin off of a Fast and Furious movie.

 

I suppose if we stretch it, we can come up with rationales for why it might fit.  But that reads more hoping than expecting to me.

 

Could it happen?  Sure.  It’s why I’m bothering to supply the info.  Is it likely?  Well I didn’t track lower selling superhero movies, so I really couldn’t say.  But my instincts are… skeptical, I’ll put it that way.

 

(my skeptical instincts have been wrong before, it must be noted)

 

Didn't we see the F&F franchise also skews heavily to the Hispanic audience (it was #1 for F9)...if memory serves, that audience is one of the least likely to prebuy early and to prebuy at all...

 

I'm not sure I see The Suicide Squad's audience breaking that way, so its comp value, other than just being "big August movie" is probably low...

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