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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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11 hours ago, Snake Eric said:

Old Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count (Thu)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 25 854 3943 21.66%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 591

 

Comp

0.434x of Quiet Place 2 Thursday Previews (2.08M)

0.333x of Conjuring 3 (3.26M)

1.167x of Forever Purge (1.55M)

1.477x of Escape Room 2 (1.77M)

 

Purge had a similar explosion as this did on its final day, so I think 1.5M previews sounds about right.

 

 

Boom baby!

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3 hours ago, Menor said:

To add to what Porthos said, the daily pace is also far less than H&S at this point if I'm extrapolating that comp right. So the comp will keep dropping.

 

 

Sort of.  H&S had a mini (and I do mean mini) boom before crashing back down again:

 

H&S starting at T-17 [pre-sales started at T-34]:

 

T-17:	5
T-16:	10
T-15:	19
T-14:	19
T-13:	26
T-12:	7
T-11:	9
T-10:	21
T-9:	34
T-8:	30
T-7:	71
T-6:	43
T-5:	62
T-4:	89
T-3:	133
T-2:	260
T-1:	468
T-0:	1564

 

It's gonna start crashing again this weekend before picking up a small amount of steam on Monday.

 

Wasn't review drop either, as that came three days before release.

 

No idea what happened to cause that mini bump as I ain't gonna take the time to dig into the internet to find out.  Might have been social embargo drop or some sort of TV campaign starting up.  Or just randomness. 

 

Also, TSS should see a bump at T-8/T-7 when the review embargo lifts.  Coz if it doesn't....

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On 7/22/2021 at 9:03 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

 

Movie Day Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
Jungle Cruise T-7 Jacksonville 5 27 4,984 55 10 1.10%
    Phoenix 6 23 4,221 51 6 1.21%
    Raleigh 7 28 3,374 49 7 1.45%
Jungle Cruise Total     18 78 12,579 155 23 1.23%
Suicide Squad T-14 Jacksonville 6 21 3,964 72 4 1.82%
    Phoenix 6 18 3,651 79 4 2.16%
    Raleigh 7 23 2,986 96 2 3.22%
Suicide Squad Total     19 62 10,601 247 10 2.33%
The Green Knight T-7 Jacksonville 6 9 1,213 18 5 1.48%
    Phoenix 5 7 895 13 0 1.45%
    Raleigh 5 10 1,256 11 1 0.88%
The Green Knight Total     16 26 3,364 42 6 1.25%

 

Movie Day Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
Jungle Cruise T-6 Jacksonville 5 27 4,984 61 6 1.22%
    Phoenix 6 23 4,221 62 11 1.47%
    Raleigh 7 28 3,374 49 0 1.45%
Jungle Cruise Total     18 78 12,579 172 17 1.37%
Stillwater T-6 Jacksonville 5 8 1,273 8 4 0.63%
    Phoenix 6 8 676 2 2 0.30%
    Raleigh 6 10 1,016 5 1 0.49%
Stillwater Total     17 26 2,965 15 7 0.51%
Suicide Squad T-14 Jacksonville 6 21 3,964 72 4 1.82%
    Phoenix 6 18 3,651 79 4 2.16%
    Raleigh 7 23 2,986 96 2 3.22%
Suicide Squad Total     19 62 10,601 247 10 2.33%
The Green Knight T-6 Jacksonville 5 8 1,044 16 2 1.53%
    Phoenix 5 7 895 18 5 2.01%
    Raleigh 6 11 1,304 16 5 1.23%
The Green Knight Total     16 26 3,243 50 12 1.54%

 

Another slow day for future releases with the two openers taking most of the action.  

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wasnt able to get Friday showings for Old or Snake Eyes. Im thinking for future stuff I may do two separate counts, one for Thursday preview (if there is one), and one for Friday shows. Have to see how my time all plays out.

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Jacksonville weekend sales by day.  Thursday sales were taken before preview shows started (Tuesday for HWB).  Old is easily outpacing the two comps and, extrapolated from these, could reach close to 20m.  I left HWB as the comp for Snake Eyes for the chart, but when comparing it BW and F9 using the known preview number, I come up with a little over 12m.  I'm sure the gap between the two won't be that large, but Old should have no problem winning the weekend. 

 

  Th* Fr Sat Sun Total
Old 181 285 119 48 633
Escape 2 187 194 65 19 465
Forever Purge 127 163 37 7 334
Snake Eyes 65 70 67 5 207
Hitman 71 (Tue) 149 118 3 270
Joe Bell 6 21 4 1 32
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28 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Space Jam long range forecasts:

Jun 18 — 15-30

Jul 2 — 15-30  

 

It missed their high end by… 3%

 

Well, if you make a big enough range, you can hit anything...I mean, the Suicide Squad and Jungle Cruise ranges are also kinda enormous...

 

 

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58 minutes ago, cax16 said:

20-40 JC

35-65(lol) TSS

 

 

PS - If Paw Patrol is still a popular enough show to make $42M Total DOM, I'll eat my hat.  I saw the previews on Tuesday, and I can't imagine what parent of 3 year olds is gonna take their kids now...and it's only gonna appeal to the 3-5s.  My boys who lived that show have no interest in the movie, so I don't see it bringing in the "older" fans unless they are dragged by little sibs.  And if it wants to make any money, it better have a ticket package deal ready, b/c $10+/ticket for a tv movie is not gonna cut it...

 

PPS - I also saw Clifford's preview...at least that tries to expand the age range and audience...but I wouldn't bet big on that one, either, unless somehow dog lovers feel like they haven't seen enough dogs on screen lately (no, this does not help Paw Patrol b/c again, it's just too infantile - I mean, it's not quite Ooogielove limited or bad, but does that really say much?)...

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59 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Well, if you make a big enough range, you can hit anything...I mean, the Suicide Squad and Jungle Cruise ranges are also kinda enormous...

 

 

Sure, the range was a little wide. It was 38% over the midpoint of 22.5. Not the sort of miss that Candyman fans would be looking for here by a long shot.
 

I don’t know why people love the “BOP missed big on Space Jam” talking point, it just doesn’t stand up to cursory mathematical scrutiny. 

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10 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Sure, the range was a little wide. It was 38% over the midpoint of 22.5. Not the sort of miss that Candyman fans would be looking for here by a long shot.
 

I don’t know why people love the “BOP missed big on Space Jam” talking point, it just doesn’t stand up to cursory mathematical scrutiny. 

 

But, they don't say BOP missed big on it - they (or I) say Deadline and Variety did, and they did for both monetary value and weekend placement...

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On 7/22/2021 at 3:25 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Jungle Cruise Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total 31 687 4.51%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 30 1015 2.96%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
159 28 11053 1.44% 15 51

 

Cruella comp: 1.70M

Jungle Cruise Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total 41 687 5.97%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 39 1015 3.84%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
182 23 11053 1.65% 15 51

 

Cruella comp: 1.72M

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25 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

But, they don't say BOP missed big on it - they (or I) say Deadline and Variety did, and they did for both monetary value and weekend placement...

??? Did you even read the discussion you just walked into? Scroll up half a page.

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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Suicide Squad Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total 87 661 13.16%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 36 753 4.78%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
266 8 9916 2.68% 15 47

 

Showings removed: 2

Seats removed: 868

 

Black Widow comp: 2.14M

F9 comp: 3.98M

AQP2 comp: 5.49M

 

Need to see some signs of life very soon...

Suicide Squad Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total 89 661 13.46%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 39 753 5.18%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
284 18 9916 2.86% 15 47

 

F9 comp: 3.90M

AQP2 comp: 5.27M

 

No Black Widow comp today

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23 hours ago, Snake Eric said:

Jungle Cruise Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting (Thu)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 37 90 7571 1.19%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 13

 

Comp

0.113x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-7 (2.2M)

0.479x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-7 (3.69M)

 

Decided to add in one more comp to all this just for funsies. I'll also likely add in a Snake Eyes comp tomorrow when we get preview results.

Jungle Cruise Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting (Thu)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 37 115 7571 1.52%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 25

 

Comp

0.128x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-6 (2.48M)

0.342x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-6 (2.64M)

1.322x of Snake Eyes T-6 (1.85M)

 

If there's anything to say at this point, this was a good day for the movie all things considered. Snake Eyes at this point in time, for a comparison, pretty much had nonexistent sales a week before release. If we continue seeing this kind of movement, it should lead to all my comps getting above 2M, which should at least ensure 20M...maybe. Who knows how Delta or D+ or whatever will impact it?

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