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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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13 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I am honestly so perplexed at Green Knight’s sales. It’s nearly tripling Old’s sales for Thursday night at my theater, but there is obviously no way this is opening to 40+ million. 

 

Even at other theaters across Canada, it’s outselling jungle cruise pretty much everywhere for thursday and even Friday in most locations as well. I don’t know if this is just a one-day-wonder, or if it’s just going to be massively pre-sale heavy. But it’s going to be very interesting to watch this weekend.

Ya at my local cineplex Green Knight has already sold 48 tickets for Thursday, JC has sold 15. Old had only sold 29 seats for previews on the day of. 
 

But Green Knight only has 4 tickets sold over 4 showtimes on Friday. 

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27 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I am honestly so perplexed at Green Knight’s sales. It’s nearly tripling Old’s sales for Thursday night at my theater, but there is obviously no way this is opening to 40+ million. 

 

Even at other theaters across Canada, it’s outselling jungle cruise pretty much everywhere for thursday and even Friday in most locations as well. I don’t know if this is just a one-day-wonder, or if it’s just going to be massively pre-sale heavy. But it’s going to be very interesting to watch this weekend.

A24’s brand + film hipster crowd. The reviews are very good which helps. And also small auditoriums, here at least. So it’ll probably be frontloaded

 

I do think it could open/near 10m, though? The Thursday numbers I see indicate 1m Thursday so high-single digits for weekend with potential if it’s not young/presale heavy 

Edited by BestPicturePlutoNash
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It’s astounding to me a raved superhero movie like Suicide Squad will flop. The reviews will be major. It’s almost unfathomable a great version of this doesn’t light up the box office. Even though it didn’t explode, another well-received DC movie like Shazam didn’t flop at least. Just a major L for Warner Bros

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Yep. Friday seems strong but totally understandable for a non-IP family movie. Also means we will be having big walk ins for THU.

Anyhow, should probably be 13K by end of tomorrow and 36-42K final probably. That shall go for $2.25-2.5M. 

 

Friday may be $10M on high end. 

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I will not count out TSS yet , reviews are going to be great just wait and watch. People trust James Gunn and with solid reviews , I can easily see a 40m+ OW. I was little apprehensive at first but hype is building up.

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Hereditary had an opening day of 5.18 which beat out Witch’s 3.3. Hereditary’s previews were 1.3. Weekend around 13.6. Considering what others this thread have been saying, 1m Thursday for Green Knight is on the table, no? Could it go higher? That would immediately make it A24’s biggest opener 
 

I mention these because A24 and I’m not sure Green Knight has any reasonable comps? 

 

Jungle Cruise has obvious Thursday comps (Cruella-1.4, Christopher Robin-1.5, etc) but this thread seems to think higher with 2m or so

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23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Suicide Squad Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

82

13689

14077

388

2.76%

 

Total Showings Added Today

1

Total Seats Added Today

125

Total Seats Sold Today

23

 

T-10 Adjusted Comp #1

 

   %

 

Sold T-10

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

AQP II

57.53

 

48

671

 

4/74

2458/3129

21.44%

 

2.76m

 

2.89m

TSS (AQP adj)

---

 

23

386

 

0/82

13556/13942

2.77%

 

---

 

---

ONTARIO COMP NOTE: Ont Comp is the number given in the Comp column/0.955 to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market.

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (QP adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track.

 

T-10 Adjusted Comp #2 

 

   %

 

Sold T-10

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

F9

33.54

 

62

1142

 

0/79

11275/12417

9.20%

 

2.38m

 

2.49m

BW

13.43

 

142

2852

 

0/119

16352/19260

15.10%

 

1.77m

 

1.86m

TSS (BW adj)

---

 

20

383

 

0/70

11452/11835

3.24%

 

---

 

---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (BW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's and BW's track.

 

EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP:  1.19811x of Hobbs & Shaw at T-11* [5.91m after adjusting for pandemic era environment]

* at theaters/showings I had the same level of tracking info.

 

The Suicide Squad Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

84

14323

14735

412

2.80%

 

Total Showings Added Today

2

Total Seats Added Today

658

Total Seats Sold Today

24

 

T-9 Adjusted Comp #1

 

   %

 

Sold T-9

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

AQP II

54.53

 

79

750

 

3/86

2823/3573

20.99%

 

2.62m

 

2.74m

TSS (AQP adj)

---

 

23

409

 

0/84

14191/14600

2.80%

 

---

 

---

ONTARIO COMP NOTE: Ont Comp is the number given in the Comp column/0.955 to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market.

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (QP adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track.

 

T-9 Adjusted Comp #2 

 

   %

 

Sold T-9

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

F9

33.28

 

81

1223

 

0/80

11347/12570

9.73%

 

2.36m

 

2.47m

BW

13.22

 

171

3079

 

0/122

16185/19264

15.98%

 

1.74m

 

1.83m

TSS (BW adj)

---

 

24

407

 

0/72

12086/12439

3.26%

 

---

 

---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (BW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's and BW's track.

 

EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP:  1.13920x of Hobbs & Shaw at T-9* [5.62m after adjusting for pandemic era environment]

* at theaters/showings I had the same level of tracking info.

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3 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

It’s astounding to me a raved superhero movie like Suicide Squad will flop. The reviews will be major. It’s almost unfathomable a great version of this doesn’t light up the box office. Even though it didn’t explode, another well-received DC movie like Shazam didn’t flop at least. Just a major L for Warner Bros

 

9 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Yeah when/if Suicide Squad flops, the primary reason is not Delta. If anything Jungle Cruise over performing would actually be impressive and somewhat indicate delta cannot always and strictly prevent families from theaters 

Are you on some sort of anti Suicide Squad crusade? The reviews aren’t even out yet. 

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

OMG TSS is turning out to be such a Disaster and here I was thinking it could have possibly hit $100M OW.

Here we go with this being over the top again.
 

If Black Widow didn’t get anywhere near $100m, why would R rated, HBO Max debut, increasing covid concern, The Suicide Squad? 

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48 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

What was last time a film was “saved” in the final 8 or 9 days?

 

Hobbs & Shaw, for one.  It's why I'm bothering to mention it.  From what I vaguely recall from a comment from Shawn, MI:6 (a late July release) also charged late, though I wasn't paying attention at the time, so I couldn't say for sure.

Edited by Porthos
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10 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

 

Are you on some sort of anti Suicide Squad crusade? The reviews aren’t even out yet. 

Here we go with this being over the top again.
 

If Black Widow didn’t get anywhere near $100m, why would R rated, HBO Max debut, increasing covid concern, The Suicide Squad? 

I’m dearly excited for Suicide Squad, already have my tickets, anticipating the soundtrack and except amazing reviews.

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1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

Hobbs & Shaw, for one.  It's why I'm bothering to mention it.  From what I vaguely recall from a comment from Shawn, MI:6 (a late July release) also charged late, though I wasn't paying attention at the time, so I couldn't say for sure.

Hobbs and Shaw iirc skewed older than the usual F&F movie and I would assume the Mission Impossible movies also skew older than most blockbuster movies today, so maybe that had an impact there (imo, both really feel like movies that would be dominated by dads). Although it feels Gunn made a film for that kind of audience rather than the first film's (which was really big amongst teenagers and young adults), the marketing itself doesn't seem to have that audience in mind. 

Edited by lorddemaxus
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7 hours ago, DAJK said:

I am honestly so perplexed at Green Knight’s sales. It’s nearly tripling Old’s sales for Thursday night at my theater, but there is obviously no way this is opening to 40+ million. 

 

Even at other theaters across Canada, it’s outselling jungle cruise pretty much everywhere for thursday and even Friday in most locations as well. I don’t know if this is just a one-day-wonder, or if it’s just going to be massively pre-sale heavy. But it’s going to be very interesting to watch this weekend.

 

6 hours ago, cax16 said:

Ya at my local cineplex Green Knight has already sold 48 tickets for Thursday, JC has sold 15. Old had only sold 29 seats for previews on the day of. 
 

But Green Knight only has 4 tickets sold over 4 showtimes on Friday. 

 

I guess you filthy Canadians with your hockey and your forests and your Tim Hortons and polar bears actually have some good film tastes. Good on ya!

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4 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Here we go with this being over the top again.
 

If Black Widow didn’t get anywhere near $100m, why would R rated, HBO Max debut, increasing covid concern, The Suicide Squad? 

 

Here when I was thinking...

On 5/30/2021 at 11:02 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

I think the bigger threat to this club is not Eternals missing $100M but someone else opening $100M before that. If you think Eternals can, then you are IN. If you think any thing else will open $100M before Eternals then you are OUT.

 

Helping you, I am gonna list the films which may be threat to this Club.

  • F9 - FF8 opened to $98M benefitted by Good Friday. There's probably no chance of F9 increasing on that.
  • Black Widow - This is probably the biggest threat to the club. If Cruella is opening to $21M FSS with day and date D+ release, may be Widow can open $100M (?). However, the trailers of film have barely look interesting to me and generally I am really good with testing waters from trailer. Widow is dead character, and just don't feel like same level of urgency that likes of Captain Marvel had. 
  • Jungle Cruise - What can I say. May be 50-60M opener?
  • The Suicide Squad - The next big threat, may be even bigger than BW. Trailer was quite fun & original Suicide Squad opened to $130M. Surely the film wasn't received that well, and DCEU isn't in great shape. Birds of Prey opened to what? 30M? 
  • Candyman - I guess. May be US numbers.
  • Shang Chi - The trailer looks more like Ant-Man numbers.
  • Venom 2 - Surely this ain't increasing from first one DOM atleast.
  • No Time To Die - Now Spectre barely opened to $70M. How much/if it can increase?

 

I guess that's it. These are potential threat. You know the drill. Shoot. 

 

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5 hours ago, Porthos said:

T-9 Adjusted Comp #2 

 

   %

 

Sold T-9

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

F9

33.28

 

81

1223

 

0/80

11347/12570

9.73%

 

2.36m

 

2.47m

BW

13.22

 

171

3079

 

0/122

16185/19264

15.98%

 

1.74m

 

1.83m

TSS (BW adj)

---

 

24

407

 

0/72

12086/12439

3.26%

 

---

 

---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (BW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's and BW's track.

I know this ain't happening but CBM to CBM comp, if it really has $2M previews, that open possibility of OW under $16M i.e. what WW84 opened continuing trend of DCEU OW decline which no one thought will continue past Birds of Prey $33M OW.

 

So if TSS is gonna bomb, it better bomb this bad or else just open $40M+ range instead of boring $20-40M. 

 

Though if we are just gonna get cheap and technical, can always put Canada, NY and other closed markets value to WW84 which may still be under $33M of BoP (need to check tho).

 

Tagging @Lokis Legion

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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4 hours ago, Krissykins said:

 


 

If Black Widow didn’t get anywhere near $100m, why would R rated, HBO Max debut, increasing covid concern, The Suicide Squad? 

 

I mean even when some locals were hyping up BW doing 100 OW (lol), even I was skeptical. And add onto TSS's handicaps that's been ad nauseum repeated,  that number for TSS seemed unrealistic even when things were relatively doing better weeks ago. But sometimes the bold investments in the clubs pay off handsomely. And sometimes people get their legs broken.  

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4 hours ago, Porthos said:

Hobbs & Shaw, for one.  It's why I'm bothering to mention it.  From what I vaguely recall from a comment from Shawn, MI:6 (a late July release) also charged late, though I wasn't paying attention at the time, so I couldn't say for sure.

I am not paying much attention to H&S comp because it had a LOT going on (SM:FFH, TLK and even OUATIH) when pre-sales opened so first few weeks were like who cares for this film, to the point it wasn't even tracked in the thread for last 7 days by many. 

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