The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[el sid]

The Green Knight counted today at 6am EST for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 15 (4 showtimes, very recently added, will look better tomorrow)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 28 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 20 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): - (still no showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 45 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 120 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 116 (4 showtimes)
 

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 344.
Up 117% since Monday. Funny, this is a niche film but it behaves (at least on Friday) like a „normal“ GA film.
Comps: Zola, counted on June 30 for June 30 (2.2M OW, 0.5M on Wednesday), had in 5 theaters 114 sold tickets (so vs 329 for TGK).
The Goldfinch (2.7M OW) had on Wednesday in the same 6 theaters 136 sold tickets for Friday.
The Good Liar (5.6M OW) had also on Wednesday in 5 theaters (AMCs in Texas and NY missing) 68 sold tickets for Friday (so again vs 329 for TGK).
This movie does surprisingly well also in „my“ theaters.

Stillwater, counted today at 6am EST for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): - (so far no showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 7 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 11 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 1 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 8 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 14 (4 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 41.
Up 140% since Monday.
Comps: Those Who Wish Me Dead had on Wednesday in 4 theaters (NY, Arizona, San Francisco, LA) 81 sold tickets.
The Rythm Section (2.7M, way worse reviews) had on Wednesday in the same 6 theaters 84 sold tickets.

Jungle Cruise, counted today at 6am EST for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 116 (8 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 74 (16 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 47 (11 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 30 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 23 (6 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 127 (11 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 238 (11 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 655.
84% up since Monday (at least in my theaters this film is another example of a movie that looked DOA not long ago and then improved big time).
Comps: Dora and the Lost City of Gold (17.4M OW) had on Thursday in the same 7 theaters 384 sold tickets for Friday.
Dolittle (21.8M OW) had on Wednesday in the same 7 theaters 240 sold tickets.
Just good.

TSS had today (also 6am EST) in 7 theaters 935+ total tickets sold for Thursday.
Birds of Prey (33.0M) had on its release day in the same 7 theaters 2.085 sold tickets for its previews so TSS is now at 45% with 8 days left to come closer or overtake. H&S had 5 days later 1.194 sold tickets.
Let's see if the reviews help till tomorrow or overtomorrow. Somehow I guess they will help a little bit but the rush (if there's any rush ^^) will only start on Monday. Normal moviegoers don't care that we count the presales .

[Menor the Destroyer]

The Green Knight MTC2

 

Thursday

Showtimes: 577

Tickets Sold: 3049/57032

 

Friday

Showtimes: 1257

Tickets Sold: 3566/135262

 

Show count is very low. I think this movie is probably underindexing some in MTC2 given what others have. Here it's not close to Jungle Cruise even on Thursday. 

Edited July 28, 2021 by Menor

[Inceptionzq]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@Inceptionzq will probably check Megaplex

Yeah I’m planning on getting back to Megaplex tracking today or tomorrow

[katnisscinnaplex]

35 minutes ago, Menor said:

The Green Knight MTC2

 

Thursday

Showtimes: 577

Tickets Sold: 3049/57032

 

Friday

Showtimes: 1257

Tickets Sold: 3566/135262

 

Show count is very low. I think this movie is probably underindexing some in MTC2 given what others have. Here it's not close to Jungle Cruise even on Thursday. 

 

This gives me an idea.... here's the breakdown of pre-sales I've done (last run for each movie) by chain.  New releases are a little skewed with showtimes just getting added yesterday, so the second chart shows T-1 data for a better comparison.  

 

Final run

 

Movie	AMC	Cinemark	CMX	Regal	RoadHouse	Sun-Ray
Black Widow	44.05%	28.50%	0.79%	23.70%	1.73%	1.24%
Escape Room 2	58.15%	20.70%		21.15%
F9: The Fast Saga	50.68%	25.21%	1.82%	20.05%	1.80%	0.44%
Jungle Cruise	65.58%	24.24%	0.87%	9.31%
Old	52.27%	25.15%	2.42%	15.30%	4.85%
Snake Eyes	59.53%	17.03%	2.77%	18.92%	1.75%
Space Jam (Friday)	44.51%	26.62%	0.77%	22.69%	5.41%
Stillwater	72.34%	19.15%		8.51%
Suicide Squad	59.94%	26.32%	0.00%	11.70%		2.05%
The Boss Baby 2	51.10%	32.02%		16.89%
The Forever Purge	55.47%	21.64%		21.14%	1.74%
The Green Knight	37.07%	34.05%		13.79%		15.09%
UFC 264	95.74%		4.26%
Grand Total	48.61%	26.11%	1.09%	20.95%	2.47%	0.76%

 

T-1 run

 

Movie	AMC	Cinemark	CMX	Regal	RoadHouse	Sun-Ray
Black Widow	48.03%	29.27%	0.39%	19.83%	1.50%	0.98%
Escape Room 2	76.67%	14.00%		9.33%
F9: The Fast Saga	54.56%	23.93%	2.61%	17.33%	1.01%	0.55%
Jungle Cruise	65.58%	24.24%	0.87%	9.31%
Old	74.75%	14.85%	5.94%	4.46%	0.00%
Snake Eyes	70.19%	14.42%	1.92%	13.46%	0.00%
Space Jam (Friday)	43.89%	28.83%	0.00%	20.69%	6.59%
Stillwater	72.34%	19.15%		8.51%
The Boss Baby 2	42.29%	36.00%		21.71%
The Forever Purge	62.96%	17.78%		19.26%	0.00%
The Green Knight	37.07%	34.05%		13.79%		15.09%
Grand Total	50.78%	26.99%	0.90%	18.27%	2.19%	0.86%

 

Just a reminder - this is only for three cities and 21 total theaters - 9 AMC, 3 Cinemark, 1 CMX, 6 Regal, 1 Roadhouse and 1 Sun-Ray.  

[DAJK]

Trailer attachments: 

 

Stillwater - Many Saints of Newark, Copshot, Last Night in SoHo, Blue Bayou.

 

Green Knight: Shang-Chi, Candyman, Reminiscence, Copshot

 

Jungle Cruise: Clifford, Addams Family, Ron’s Gone Wrong, Fred Guy, Shang-Chi

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Jungle Cruise Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

80

687

11.64%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

93

1015

9.16%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
346	83	11053	3.13%	15	51

 

Cruella comp: 1.98M

 

Gonna skip Suicide Squad today. Barely had time for this one. But really good day

Jungle Cruise Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

90

1032

8.72%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

116

1174

9.88%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
465	119	11726	3.97%	15	58

 

Showings added: 8

Seats added: 875

Showings removed: 1

Seats removed: 202

 

Cruella comp: 2.15M

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/26/2021 at 4:35 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Suicide Squad Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

102

661

15.43%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

44

753

5.84%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 25 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
316	10	10067	3.14%	15	48

 

Black Widow comp: 2.17M

F9 comp: 3.71M

AQP2 comp: 4.77M

Suicide Squad Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

108

661

16.34%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

50

753

6.64%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
364	48	10266	3.55%	15	50

 

Showings added: 2

Seats added: 199

 

Black Widow comp: 2.19M

F9 comp: 3.81M

AQP2 comp: 4.77M

[Tinalera]

44 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Trailer attachments: 

 

Stillwater - Many Saints of Newark, Copshot, Last Night in SoHo, Blue Bayou.

 

Green Knight: Shang-Chi, Candyman, Reminiscence, Copshot

 

Jungle Cruise: Clifford, Addams Family, Ron’s Gone Wrong, Fred Guy, Shang-Chi

This is probably how out of it I am, but I only really recognize titles Shang-Chi, Candyman, and Clifford. The rest im like

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

As of 8est today

 

JUNGLE CRUISE:

Cinemark(18 total tickets): 2 XD showings (13 tickets)/4 digital showtimes: (5 tickets)

AMC(35 total tickets) 7pm DOLBY (28 tickets)/745 IMAX (7)/630 3D (0)/6pm Digital (0)

 

GREEN KNIGHT:

Cinemark: 2 showings: (6 tickets total)

AMC: 7pm (53 tickets)

 

STILLWATER:

Cinemark: 2 showings (2 tickets) 

AMC: 7pm (5 tickets)

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, Tinalera said:

Dbox screws me up when I do Toronto because even though there are two "listings" for same show time, both dbox and non don't discriminate between seats sold (IE It says x sold, x available total seats, there is no "dbox sales only" numbers that I can find). I mean if it helps I can manually count the dbox tickets sold (like literally count seats) if that helps

Just don't count DBOX shows. They basically shows same number for both shows, if you count those, will led to double counting.

[DAJK]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Just don't count DBOX shows. They basically shows same number for both shows, if you count those, will led to double counting.

This is true. Don’t double count DBOX

[Tinalera]

36 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Just don't count DBOX shows. They basically shows same number for both shows, if you count those, will led to double counting.

Ive just included them as part of the overall count. I only count 1 show when I see the box/non dbox when they have exact same seat count and starting times. So I'm happy to hear Ive been doing it right all along

[Shawn Robbins]

On 7/28/2021 at 2:56 AM, Porthos said:

 

Hobbs & Shaw, for one.  It's why I'm bothering to mention it.  From what I vaguely recall from a comment from Shawn, MI:6 (a late July release) also charged late, though I wasn't paying attention at the time, so I couldn't say for sure.

Without checking back through my files, I think your memory is correct here. The MI movies are kind of unique to me being a reliable franchise draw but not necessarily always pre-sales heavy, partly due to the gender/age targets.

 

Maybe TSS fits that in a slight way? Hard to tell in this weird environment of COVID. I like the Hobbs comp, aside from the PG-13 vs R aspect.

 

Also, DC movies seem to over-perform more than under-perform to me. BOP was kind of a freak of nature in that way but that's the only one I can think of which didn't either meet or exceed general expectations. (Edit: Yeah, Justice League too... but a big outlier there for obvious reasons.)

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Just now, Shawn said:

Without checking back through my files, I think your memory is correct here. The MI movies are kind of unique to me being a reliable franchise draw but not necessarily always pre-sales heavy, partly due to the gender/age targets.

 

Maybe TSS fits that in a slight way? Hard to tell in this weird environment of COVID. I like the Hobbs comp, aside from the PG-13 vs R aspect.

 

Also, DC movies seem to over-perform more than under-perform to me. BOP was kind of a freak of nature in that way but that's the only one I can think of which didn't either meet or exceed general expectations.

What about Shazam? I can’t exactly remember how it was tracking but I do remember the feeling and speculation it could have been bigger if not so close to Endgame

[Menor the Destroyer]

9 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

What about Shazam? I can’t exactly remember how it was tracking but I do remember the feeling and speculation it could have been bigger if not so close to Endgame

I wasn't super into box office at the time but did JL meet expectations? I've always heard it characterized as a failure. The performance definitely wasn't good in absolute terms, but idk what the expectations were at the time. 

Edited July 29, 2021 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

27 minutes ago, Shawn said:

The MI movies are kind of unique to me being a reliable franchise draw but not necessarily always pre-sales heavy, partly due to the gender/age targets

The reason for being pre-sales heavy is the urgency to watch ASAP by fans which is Star Wars, Marvel or DC.

 

Other reason is when something suppose to open big so tickets booked in advance to secure seats.

 

MI is more like General audience franchise and never going for those huge openings so presales are supposed to be back loaded IMO

[Ezen Baklattan]

Stillwater
Tracking Date	Showtime Date	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
7/28/2021	7/29/2021	0	4	7	271	2.58%
7/28/2021	7/30/2021	0	8	44	460	9.57%

 

Stillwater roughly doubled both days relative to Tuesday. accounts. Still not amazing but might be enough to get over $5m.

 

The Green Knight
Tracking Date	Showtime Date	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
7/28/2021	7/29/2021	0	6	71	364	19.51%
7/28/2021	7/30/2021	0	8	78	624	12.50%

 

Up 36% for Thursday with two new shows added and 26% on Friday. With both days included, it's at 65% of Old and 112% of Snake Eyes. The primetime shows are near capacity on both days, but the late night and matinee screenings are still relatively empty.

 

Jungle Cruise
Tracking Date	Showtime Date	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
7/28/2021	7/29/2021	0	14	158	1567	10.08%
7/28/2021	7/30/2021	0	21	289	2763	10.46%

 

Up 30% for Thursday and 47% for Friday. This isn't going to be too frontloaded so not surprised by this. With both days included its at 195% of Old, 167% of The Boss Baby 2, 191% of Peter Rabbit 2, 336% of Snake Eyes, 132% of In The Heights, and 142% of the Conjuring: TDMMDI. Averaging those comps gives us about a $12m Friday. That seems a bit optimistic, but it definitely is tracking well. I think it can get to high 20s for the weekend.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Jungle Cruise MTC2

 

Thursday

Showtimes: 1861 (+70)

Seats Sold: 12045/275452 (+3008)

 

Friday

Showtimes: 4105 (+93)

Seats Sold: 26011/643058 (+7068)

 

Meh jumps. Thinking 1.8ish previews and 26ish OW, unless walkups are really good. 

Edited July 29, 2021 by Menor

[Eric Atreides]

On 7/27/2021 at 10:59 PM, Snake Eric said:

Jungle Cruise Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	54	238	9843	2.42%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 13

Total Seats Added Today: 1,884

Total Seats Sold Today: 59

 

Comp

0.093x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-2 (1.80M)

0.439x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-2 (3.38M)

1.172x of Snake Eyes T-2 (1.64M)

Jungle Cruise Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	313	9903	3.16%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 60

Total Seats Sold Today: 75

 

Comp

0.089x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-1 (1.72M)

0.392x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-1 (3.02M)

1.203x of Snake Eyes T-1 (1.68M)

 

Yeah I'm really not sure why Philly is just dead while everybody else is having solid sales. I don't see any real reason why this of all movies would underperform, but I'm sure it's probably doing much better on Friday and Saturday and such. And maybe it's comparing Thursday to Thu+Fri making things muddy, which should clear out tomorrow since I'll actually have solo numbers for Place and Cruella.

[Ezen Baklattan]

5 minutes ago, Snake Eric said:

Jungle Cruise Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	313	9903	3.16%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 60

Total Seats Sold Today: 75

 

Comp

0.089x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-1 (1.72M)

0.392x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-1 (3.02M)

1.203x of Snake Eyes T-1 (1.68M)

 

Yeah I'm really not sure why Philly is just dead while everybody else is having solid sales. I don't see any real reason why this of all movies would underperform, but I'm sure it's probably doing much better on Friday and Saturday and such. And maybe it's comparing Thursday to Thu+Fri making things muddy, which should clear out tomorrow since I'll actually have solo numbers for Place and Cruella.

I mean, your comps could lead to around $2-2.5m for Thursday previews and $7.5-10m for Friday, just hope the ITH comp works best here.