The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Should be more. Completely non-existent IP.

 

Edit: I was referring for THU.

 

Let me get clarification one more time. Did THU just went from 24K to 45K on final day. because MTC 2 went from 12k to 42K (3.5x).

 

Harkins was over 3x as well.

MTC1 always has a bad PSm. F9 was like 1.5x. Anyway that MTC1 data suggests more like 10 million to me, considering walkups should be relatively higher than F9 (not sure why @keysersoze123 is expecting lower) 

Edited July 30, 2021 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

MTC1 always has a bad PSm. F9 was like 1.5x.

MTC 2 was 1.8x for F9 IIRC. Here MTC 1 is just 1.8x while MTC 2 is 3.5x. That's too much.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

MTC 2 was 1.8x for F9 IIRC. Here MTC 1 is just 1.8x while MTC 2 is 3.5x. That's too much.

If using the same numbers that you are using for JC (Wed night), MTC2 was 2.14x for F9. 

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

If using the same numbers that you are using for JC (Wed night), MTC2 was 2.14x for F9. 

Checked F9 MTC1, it was 1.95x vs 2.15x.

  

On 6/24/2021 at 5:47 AM, keysersoze123 said:

 

Previews - 67647/506916 965359.00 3034 shows

Friday -  91549/1083834 1174406.00 6086 shows

 

On 6/25/2021 at 9:18 AM, keysersoze123 said:

F9 MTC1

Previews - 131637/518700 1770173.00 3198 shows

Friday PS - 143293/1103847 1765561.00 6282 shows

 

Edited July 30, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Inceptionzq]

15 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Jungle Cruise Megaplex Thursday

 

1696/15853 in 14 theaters. 

 

Black Widow comp: 2.70M

 

Performing really well here, which isn't much of a surprise considering it's a family movie and Utah. I am surprised at the Black Widow comp though.

Guess this wasn’t so surprising after all

[Inceptionzq]

Also seems like a similar underperformance in Denver as it had for Jumanji. My Jumanji prediction was like 3.75M. Way under the actual. I checked the comp yesterday, and after removing 15% it was like 2.8M for Jungle Cruise. I’ll have to check when I get home but I guess these types of movies don’t do as well in Denver. Or they just don’t presell as well and have huge late walkups

[charlie Jatinder]

Somehow every one had it right around 2.7M.

 

 

Tracking thread is back.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/27/2021 at 3:29 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

	Th	Fr	Sat	Sun	Total	Comp Prediction
Stillwater	13	14	23	9	59
Roadrunner	29	36	24	14	103	$1,139,212.67
Green Knight	65	37	22	11	135
Old	26	52	19	16	113	$20,136,187.83
Escape 2	32	31	20	4	87	$13,657,330.86
Jungle Cruise	116	182	131	53	482
Snake Eyes	74	63	42	35	214	$30,108,903
F9	489	674	443	197	1,803	$18,724,795
BW	1,310	972	584	278	3,144	$12,320,790

 

	Th	Fr	Sat	Sun	Total	Comp Prediction
Stillwater	40	67	62	36	205
Roadrunner	100	119	74	54	347	$4,112,278
Green Knight	203	178	102	65	548
Old	181	285	119	48	633	$6,505,060
Escape 2	187	194	65	19	465	$5,971,790
Jungle Cruise	404	758	387	119	1,668
Snake Eyes	217	237	184	91	729	$31,684,312
F9	1,155	2,017	941	440	4,553	$27,897,815
BW	2,333	2,445	1,206	582	6,566	$24,115,286

 

Jacksonville OW sales by day with comps; all taken Friday morning.   In the previous iteration, I was only using sales to OW multipliers for the comps, but I updated to factor in the ratio between preview multipliers (i.e. Stillwater had a much higher preview sales to gross multi than Roadrunner so I expanded that to the full weekend.)  I feel pretty good about the averages, though hopefully JC can hit the higher end of the range.  

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 7/29/2021 at 12:15 PM, Menor said:

Suicide Squad MTC2

 

Thursday

Showings: 1397 (+4)

Seats Sold: 6979/224106 (+826)

 

Comps: 

0.308x F9 (estimated) at the same point (2.19 million)

0.124x BW (estimated) at the same point (1.64 million)

 

Friday:

Showings: 3211 (nc)

Seats Sold: 5022/531206 (+476)

Comps:

0.231x F9 (estimated) at the same point (5.24 million)

0.128x BW (estimated) at the same point (3.37 million)

Thursday

Showings: 1397 (nc)

Seats Sold: 7805/224104 (+826)

 

Comps:

0.321x F9 (estimated) at the same point (2.28 million)

0.131x BW (estimated) at the same point (1.73 million)

 

Friday

Showings: 3215 (+4)

Seats Sold: 5665/532165 (+643)

 

Comps:

0.240x F9 (estimated) at the same point (5.44 million)

0.132x BW (estimated) at the same point (3.47 million)

 

All comps saw improvement today. This weekend will be crucial though. F9 saw a big improvement over the weekend so TSS needs to sell at a much faster pace to keep up.

[Tinalera]

Will have counts up later today, got things to do.

 

For those following the incredibly exciting news of whats going on in Ontario, Ontario talking about post stage 3, meetings requirements of percentages.

 

But heres the slightly confusing bit. They are saying that capacity limits will be lifted when we leave stage three. Mask requirements still will be in effect Alright fine, BUT, in the same news, they also say places that involve things like working out, eating (restaurants, theatres I would assume), when taking off mask, that when not wearing mask people will be required to still keep social distancing, or have barriers.

 

So, IMO, this tells me that either Theatres will have to continue to restricted seating, or they start putting barriers beside seats, which would be kind of weird. Hard to say till we get there, but possiblity even coming out of stage 3 theatres may still have some distancing/restrictions in place, therefore not having full seating.

[keysersoze123]

19 minutes ago, Menor said:

Thursday

Showings: 1397 (nc)

Seats Sold: 7805/224104 (+826)

 

Comps:

0.321x F9 (estimated) at the same point (2.28 million)

0.131x BW (estimated) at the same point (1.73 million)

 

Friday

Showings: 3215 (+4)

Seats Sold: 5665/532165 (+643)

 

Comps:

0.240x F9 (estimated) at the same point (5.44 million)

0.132x BW (estimated) at the same point (3.47 million)

 

All comps saw improvement today. This weekend will be crucial though. F9 saw a big improvement over the weekend so TSS needs to sell at a much faster pace to keep up.

It needs to add more shows. Will not happen until tuesday/wednesday next week. At least at MTC1 I see it go up as its filling up.

 

SS Previews(T-6)

MTC1 - 22413/229051 388334.95 1089 shows. 

 

On Jungle Cruise the pace seem below SJ for now. Its just under 75K at MTC1 and at 70K at MTC2. Thinking around 300K between 2 chains and around $3.2m. SJ2 did 4.7m between 2 chains. I am sticking to 9m true friday. Let us see if that goes up. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 1/31/2020 at 10:22 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Birds of Prey (T-6)

MTC1 - overall 1415 shows 18558/302388 323928.08  +2624
MTC2 - overall 1289 shows 6487/226009 84922.27 +1029

 

I guess it will slow down until Monday next week. MTC1 numbers are ok but MTC2 numbers are poor. My initial projection based on current numbers is around 5.5m previews. 
 

So TSS is about 20% higher in both MTC, but this is a 2020 comp. @keysersoze123 about how much higher is your coverage now than then?

[keysersoze123]

46 minutes ago, Menor said:

So TSS is about 20% higher in both MTC, but this is a 2020 comp. @keysersoze123 about how much higher is your coverage now than then?

Not sure. From BO perspective wont make a huge difference. I was covering all big markets even back then. 

[Tinalera]

The Suicide Squad 

Toronto Ontario 

Taken July 30 for Thurs Aug 5 AND Friday Aug 6

 

Thursday 43 Shows 

Friday 45 Shows 

 

Yonge dundas

               Sold       

Thursday  64 (13)      

Friday      44 (31)      

 

Scotia

Thursday 176 (16)  

Friday      90(13)                   

 

Varsity

Thurs      20              

Friday NA

 

Yonge Eglinton

Thurs     40(9)   

Friday    39(9)        

 

Yorkdale

Thurs     13(4)      

Friday     13    

 

Eglinton Town

Thursday  30(13)         

Friday      26(9)          

 

Queensway

Thursday 100(23)     

Friday     70             

 

Empress walk 

Thursday   34 (10)   

Friday        5           

 

Thursday Total Sold 485 (110)

               Total Seats 9553(-207)

Friday Total Sold 324(85)

           Total Seats 9508 (-252)

 

So for simplicity I removed the negative seat count for each theatre and instead just gave a total seats and how much was lost from previous. Just focussed on increased sales per theatre. 

 

 

[el sid]

TSS counted today at 10am EST for Thursday, August 5 (6 days to go):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 140+ (4 showtimes and the same Sell Outs stuff, one of the two available shows is now „Almost Full“)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 164 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 16 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 7 (1 showtime)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 10+ (3 showtimes, still two Sell Outs reported)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 235 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 547 (10 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.119.
8% up and 78 seats sold since yesterday.

Now at 53.5% of Birds of Prey on its release day.
Hobbs & Shaw had in the same 7 theaters 1.194 sold tickets for Thursday on Monday of its release week. So TSS is now at 94% with 3 days left to come closer or overtake (this seems like a decent percentage for TSS but H&S had a good last week).
Normally movies have a 2 or 2.5 factor from Monday to Thursday in my tracking (e.g. AQP II, The Conjuring3, F9; H&S had rather x3). So let's say TSS has 1.400 sold tickets on Monday, then it would end with ca. 3k tickets on Thursday. Would be ok, 1.5x BoP (but HBO Max). Or maybe (hopefully) the jumps are way better next week. I just took the average jump of movies in the last weeks.
 

And for Friday, August 6:
NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7):120+ (9 showtimes, 4 alleged SOs)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 62 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 15 (7 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 4 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 10 (5 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 148 (13 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 355 (15 showtimes)
 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 714.
Up 144% since Saturday July 17.
Birds of Prey had on its release day in the same 7 theaters 1.664 sold tickets for Friday. Means TSS is at 43% now with 6 days left to come closer or overtake it. Given the normal jumps that probably will happen but not much more.
F9 had 1.656 sold tickets in the same 7 theaters for Friday so TSS reached 43% at the moment with 3 days left to come closer.
And H&S had 1.234 sold tickets in the same 7 theaters for Friday so TSS is at 58% at the moment with also 3 days left to come closer.
Overall the Friday improved from disaster to  in my theaters but I would like to see bigger jumps as soon as possible.

Edited July 30, 2021 by el sid

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/29/2021 at 4:23 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Suicide Squad Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

117

661

17.70%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

59

753

7.84%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
405	39	10266	3.95%	15	50

 

Black Widow comp: 2.27M

F9 comp: 4.02M

AQP2 comp: 4.87M

 

Comps all went up finally

Suicide Squad Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

122

661

18.46%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

67

753

8.90%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
452	47	10791	4.19%	15	53

 

Showings added: 3

Seats added: 525

 

Black Widow comp: 2.41M

F9 comp: 4.16M

AQP2 comp: 4.92M

Adjusted Hobbs comp: 5.60M

 

Picking up some steam. The Hobbs comp is still extremely close to @Porthos's

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/29/2021 at 4:25 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Suicide Squad Megaplex

 

T-7 days Thursday: 187/8649 in 12 theaters

 

T-8 days Friday: 142/18606 in 11 theaters

Suicide Squad Megaplex

 

T-6 days Thursday: 221(+34)/9046(+397) in 13 theaters

 

T-7 days Friday: 154(+12)/19554(+948) in 12 theaters

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Hobbs comp is still extremely close to @Porthos's

 

Still very unlikely to happen, but if it does...

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

5 hours ago, Menor said:

So TSS is about 20% higher in both MTC, but this is a 2020 comp. @keysersoze123 about how much higher is your coverage now than then?

But it's only 2 days for BoP.

[Eric Atreides]

On 7/29/2021 at 10:42 PM, Skipper Eric said:

The Suicide Squad Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	415	8211	5.05%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 31

 

Comp

0.393x of F9 T-7 (2.79M)

0.157x of Black Widow T-7 (2.07M)

The Suicide Squad Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	461	8211	5.61%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 46

 

Comp

0.404x of F9 T-6 (2.87M)

0.161x of Black Widow T-6 (2.12M)