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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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It is saddening one of the top brand in cinematic world, with rave reviews, generating so little interest among general public, and likely to just doing 30-40m... 

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1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

It is saddening one of the top brand in cinematic world, with rave reviews, generating so little interest among general public, and likely to just doing 30-40m... 

There is an absurd symmetry to this potentially opening on par with BOP’s $33 million which feels like from a whole other world and not a year and half ago.

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I think there's enough interest in The Suicide Squad that it would have been a $70-80M opener in normal times with no pandemic and no simultaneous streaming release. But as it stands it'll just have to make do with whatever it ends up making.

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14 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

BW probably would have opened $125M in normalcy. @Lokis Legion same ?

 

So Disney+ PA cost it may be 35%. Using same for TSS will still be $40M if it open around $25M.

TSS doesn’t cost $30 at home and it’s debuting on Thursday at home, not Friday like BW, so it wouldn’t be the same. 
 

Anyway, we’ll never know. 

Edited by Krissykins
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22 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

BW probably would have opened $125M in normalcy. @Lokis Legion same ?

 

So Disney+ PA cost it may be 35%. Using same for TSS will still be $40M if it open around $25M.

I think 100-110 ish without PA, so maybe 120-130ish without PA or any pandemic? Hard to say, may be a little too optimistic, but 110+ should be pretty comfortable.    
 

Hard to say whether PA or MAX is hurting movies more, so sure, maybe add 40-50% as a first approximation?

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So The Suicide Squad opened with $4.7M in the UK. The 2016 one opened with about $14.7M over there. 

Similar ratio will give The Suicide Squad a $43M opening weened in the US! 

 

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The Suicide Squad:

7:00 Dolby: 48/236

7:30: 0/107

8:00 IMAX: 9/372

Total: 57/715

 

Comps:

 

16% of Black Widow Previews the day before (2.1M)

44% of F9 Previews three days out (3.1M)

52% of AQP2 Previews two days out (2.5M)

259% of Jungle Cruise Previews five days out (7M)

317% of Old Previews four days out (4.8M)

335% of The Green Knight Previews five days out (2.5M)

407% of Snake Eyes Previews four days out (5.7M)

 

Currently, I'd expect 2.5-3.5M based on comparisons like F9, AQP, and Green Knight. This has a full PLF skew, the largest of which I've seen all summer (Old was in a similar boat until 2-3 days before previews).

 

Side note: although I just moved out, I'll keep tracking Tallahassee until I settle into a new locale (likely NYC). I have 3 months of pandemic comps to use, and they've been spot on more often than not (hello AQP and F9 :Venom: ). 

 

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26 minutes ago, YSLDC said:

So The Suicide Squad opened with $4.7M in the UK. The 2016 one opened with about $14.7M over there. 

Similar ratio will give The Suicide Squad a $43M opening weened in the US! 

 

A perverse part of me wants it to open $33m, same as BOP did just for franchise symmetry reasons.

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I am in the 20-30 range for now, mostly because Friday numbers are quite bad so I expect it to be very frontloaded, and with preview sales this low as well, it doesn't bode well.

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23 hours ago, Menor said:

Thursday

Showtimes: 1413 (+16)

Seats Sold: 8757/225957 (+952)

 

Friday

Showtimes: 3237 (+22)

Seats Sold: 6402/534862 (+737)

TSS MTC2

 

Thursday

Showtimes: 1413 (nc)

Seats Sold: 9763/224805 (+1006)

 

Friday

Showtimes: 3240 (+3)

Seats Sold: 7099/534757 (+697)

 

Saturday

Showtimes: 3363

Seats Sold: 5155/554605

 

I had to count a few showings manually because my script lagged out on them, so that's why the "seats available" number is a little wonky. Anyway I have never seen Friday this bad this close to release. Saturday also looks fairly low and probably will have a small drop from Friday. I'll bring back the comps starting tomorrow.

 

Edited by Menor
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9 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Be prepared for a melt-down thread next week

 

Meltdown threads partially, or maybe even mostly, come from unmet expectations.  If the Tracking thread has been warning for weeks that something is likely to happen, is it really that unexpected?

 

(yes I know, for some odd reason, the entire board doesn't revolve around this thread — still think word is getting out about the anemic pre-sales)

Edited by Porthos
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1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

Meltdown threads partially, or maybe even mostly, come from unmet expectations.  If the Tracking thread has been warning for weeks that something is likely to happen, is it really that unexpected?

 

(yes I know, for some odd reason, the entire board doesn't revolve around this thread — still think word is getting out about the anemic pre-sales)

The entire board does revolve around this thread when you weight by importance 👀    
 

I’ve been trying to lower TSS expectations elsewhere in part to avoid a meltdown, but I suspect there is a level of performance around Alice Looking Glass that will cause things to get rowdy no matter how much they’ve been lowered.

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9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Meltdown threads partially, or maybe even mostly, come from unmet expectations.  If the Tracking thread has been warning for weeks that something is likely to happen, is it really that unexpected?

 

(yes I know, for some odd reason, the entire board doesn't revolve around this thread — still think word is getting out about the anemic pre-sales)

From what I can see, the expectation on the forum at large is at least 30-40. I could easily see TSS coming well below that which would cause meltdowns.

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13 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Meltdown threads partially, or maybe even mostly, come from unmet expectations.  If the Tracking thread has been warning for weeks that something is likely to happen, is it really that unexpected?

 

(yes I know, for some odd reason, the entire board doesn't revolve around this thread — still think word is getting out about the anemic pre-sales)

I don't think there are any amount of expectation can prepare a top brand property with rave reviews coming in within SJ2 or JC range (when both have far worse reviews) or even potentially sink lower, which means it isn't far better than MK if we factor in R-rating. 

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19 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

Preview for Respect is now sold out. Are we expecting a break out. Urban films are always under predicted. 

Depends what your expectations of a breakout are. BOP has an OW range of 8-18M. Pretty wide range but seems right to me.

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8 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I don't think there are any amount of expectation can prepare a top brand property with rave reviews coming in within SJ2 or JC range (when both have far worse reviews) or even potentially sink lower, which means it isn't far better than MK if we factor in R-rating. 

TSS and MK are both R? But it’s not obvious that TSS can beat MK’s OW

Edited by Lokis Legion
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