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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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On 4/18/2021 at 2:23 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Mortal Kombat(T-5)

MTC1 - 35245/483505 503918.00 2344 shows(424 theatres) // 66 sellouts

MTC2 - 34293/416785 420226.57 2671 shows(294 theatres) // 52 sellouts

 

Slightly over day and half of data. 

 

Actually, MK could be a solid comp. Went back and checked. At Sun before release, MK had twice the tickets for Fri at MTC2 that TSS does for Th+Fri. That was for non summer too. Could be worth digging around for run rates, but when Menor says Fri looks bad I really want to emphasize that it looks baaaaaaaaaaaaad.

Edited by Lokis Legion
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44 minutes ago, Menor said:

TSS MTC2

 

Thursday

Showtimes: 1413 (nc)

Seats Sold: 9763/224805 (+1006)

 

Friday

Showtimes: 3240 (+3)

Seats Sold: 7099/534757 (+697)

 

Saturday

Showtimes: 3363

Seats Sold: 5155/554605

OMG. This is fucked if PSm aren't crazy good for CBMs.

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6 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Actually, MK could be a solid comp. Went back and checked. At Sun before release, MK had twice the tickets for Fri at MTC2 that TSS does for Th+Fri. That was for non summer too. Could be worth digging around for run rates, but when Menor says Fri looks bad I really want to emphasize that it looks baaaaaaaaaaaaad.

Run rate at MTC2 is around half of MK as well (for combined Thu/Fri) but MK didn't have much Regal iirc. Obviously it still looks quite poor.

Edited by Menor
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I am seeing MTC 2 hit may be 17K by WED night and 42K final may be. That shall lead to $3.25-3.5M THU considering MTC 1 is doing heavy lifting.

 

FRI seems like will go around $7M ish.

 

3.25
7
7
5.25 // 22.5

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5 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Actually, MK could be a solid comp. Went back and checked. At Sun before release, MK had twice the tickets for Fri at MTC2 that TSS does for Th+Fri. That was for non summer too. Could be worth digging around for run rates, but when Menor says Fri looks bad I really want to emphasize that it looks baaaaaaaaaaaaad.

It opened fairly well in the UK this weekend and presales looked bad until a couple of days before, hopefully something similar happens for the US and it makes up for it with walk ups as it’d be tragic if this tanked as badly as the current US presales suggest it might, it’s a genuinely fun, crowd pleasing film.

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12 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

It opened fairly well in the UK this weekend and presales looked bad until a couple of days before, hopefully something similar happens for the US and it makes up for it with walk ups as it’d be tragic if this tanked as badly as the current US presales suggest it might, it’s a genuinely fun, crowd pleasing film.

I hope so, but HBO Max plus a worse Delta situation will make this open much worse than the UK suggests probably.

13 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I am seeing MTC 2 hit may be 17K by WED night and 42K final may be. That shall lead to $3.25-3.5M THU considering MTC 1 is doing heavy lifting.

 

FRI seems like will go around $7M ish.

 

3.25
7
7
5.25 // 22.5

I think 21k WED night, 49k final is doable if it has okay bumps today and tomorrow. That would give 3.5-4.

Edited by Menor
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9 minutes ago, Menor said:

I hope so, but HBO Max plus a worse Delta situation will make this open much worse than the UK suggests probably.

I think 21k WED night, 49k final is doable if it has okay bumps today and tomorrow. That would give 3.5-4.

Actually the covid situation faced by MK isn't really far better than now.

By next week USA should have 80-90k+ new cases per day with 40k+ in hospital , this is in the similar compared MK's opening week which had 70k+ new cases , 40k of hospitalization and even triple in number of death at that point of time.

 

So TSS coming in below MK will be truly disastrous even with a thought of it. 

 

    

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If TSS would indeed lose over 100M compared to a predecessor with bad reviews and at best mixed fan reactions I would just be highly disappointed. And no so far bad presales number could prepare me (maybe on Thursday I would try to be prepared).
But especially after a mostly disappointing summer (and I didn't expect wonders) and after TSS got even better than expected reviews this would just be a big letdown.

But the last week is the important one. It could also be that people start to notice it's getting good reviews from critics and viewers with early access but don't fully believe it yet.

By the way at the moment I'm glad that JC exceeded the expectations of most people here. Of course it's still no win if the budget estimates are true but one or two weeks earlier I doubted that it will cross the 25M mark.

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17 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Actually the covid situation faced by MK isn't really far better than now.

By next week USA should have 80-90k+ new cases per day with 40k+ in hospital , this is in the similar compared MK's opening week which had 70k+ new cases , 40k of hospitalization and even triple in number of death at that point of time.

 

So TSS coming in below MK will be truly disastrous even with a thought of it. 

 

    

Yeah, but I meant compared to the UK where the opening was ok.

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1 minute ago, el sid said:

If TSS would indeed lose over 100M compared to a predecessor with bad reviews and at best mixed fan reactions I would just be highly disappointed. And no so far bad presales number could prepare me (maybe on Thursday I would try to be prepared).
But especially after a mostly disappointing summer (and I didn't expect wonders) and after TSS got even better than expected reviews this would just be a big letdown.

But the last week is the important one. It could also be that people start to notice it's getting good reviews from critics and viewers with early access but don't fully believe it yet.

By the way at the moment I'm glad that JC exceeded the expectations of most people here. Of course it's still no win if the budget estimates are true but one or two weeks earlier I doubted that it will cross the 25M mark.

Yes, it is not about this movie coming in below expectation, it is about why we have to lay our expectation this low even with rave reviews and seem normal amount of marketing (by pandemic-era level). 

 

DC movies has been skewing towards US audience, if there aren't anyone at the wider audience scale in USA cares about this, how would this spawn into a brighter future for DC?  

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24 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Let's not put the blame on CoVID. Truth is pre-sales have been poor from day 1. And not to forget JC opening to $35M this week.


….was covid not a concern when tickets went on sale? Is The Suicide Squad the one film that is immune from Covid? 

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28 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Let's not put the blame on CoVID. Truth is pre-sales have been poor from day 1. And not to forget JC opening to $35M this week.


#1 reason is that it’s a sequel to an awful film. Secondary factors are COVID and hbo max of course. 

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Just now, Krissykins said:


….was covid not a concern when tickets went on sale? Is The Suicide Squad the one film that is immune from Covid? 

IIRC pre-sales started around BW weekend. Which opened $80M. Space Jam 2 had biggest occupancy recorded since TROS next weekend.

 

So Yes CoVID was little concern when sales opened.

 

If anything, no more than JC this weekend, and there is no way to spin TSS opening under JC as anything other than Disaster.

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5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

IIRC pre-sales started around BW weekend. Which opened $80M. Space Jam 2 had biggest occupancy recorded since TROS next weekend.

 

So Yes CoVID was little concern when sales opened.

 

If anything, no more than JC this weekend, and there is no way to spin TSS opening under JC as anything other than Disaster.


but isn’t Jungle Cruise already a disaster? 

 

$200m budget, $23m from 47 international markets. 
 

The Suicide Squad did $7m from 5 markets. 
 

(covid obviously impacted both of your examples. It’s a factor. It will be for a long time). 

Edited by Krissykins
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4 minutes ago, TheCinephile said:


#1 reason is that it’s a sequel to an awful film. Secondary factors are COVID and hbo max of course. 

I think same. Though despite that if we didn't had tracking thread I would be going in weekend expecting $50-60M, so I would have been shocked if not for tracking thread next week.

 

Though I have a theory, that has Superhero movies evolved to exist in shared universes with little interest by audience in something which doesn't have any large picture in universe it is set in.

 

Like DCEU is pretty much done and dusted so the movie suffering from bad position of universe.

 

There is nothing really new supposed to happen in TSS. Trailers basically suggested same rehash of SS - Enchantress as villain in lighter colors and humor of Gunn. Nothing else to move DCEU  forward.

 

Just a theory am spitballing nothing serious

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1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

Meltdown threads partially, or maybe even mostly, come from unmet expectations.  If the Tracking thread has been warning for weeks that something is likely to happen, is it really that unexpected?

 

(yes I know, for some odd reason, the entire board doesn't revolve around this thread — still think word is getting out about the anemic pre-sales)

 

Oh there will be a meltdown. I know this forum inside and out and I know there will be meltdowns even in the 30-40 range. It's already happening now. This is already the big whooping boy for the forum as is, with people having their knives prepared for the slightest underperformance. You already have people fretting over the future of DC over this film's potential underperformance and how Warner/DC dropped the ball ever since BvS. You have the weirdo Snyder stans already set to do their usual schtick as they plead Zack to come back and complain about how DC will fall apart if he isn't involved. You have the Warner stans who are already ultradefensive. "It's a pandemic! It's on HBO Max! You can't say anything bad about this movie whatsoever! You're just hypocritical! You're out to get this movie!"

 

This stuff, both in the tracking thread and elsewhere on the forums, is truly obnoxious, immature stuff. It will only accelerate in the weekend thread, like it does with every one of these kinds of movies. But hey, that just means I have to work overtime when it comes to this kind of nonsense.

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