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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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12 minutes ago, poncho said:

"TSS" is a Rated R movie, are you forgetting that? blockbusters "PG-13" always have bigger box office, except rare exceptions like "Joker" and "Deadpool" ... besides other external factors like GLOBAL PANDEMIC 🙄

 

anything Warner throws the HBO Max numbers to inflate a false positive reception like Disney did with BW and Jungle Cruise 🤐

Franchise war soldiers gotta soldier. You and I know circumstances screwing most movies out this year (some more than others) is out of control for these studios. Streaming is these outfits doing what they can, even if it’s making piracy easier which further eats the bottom line. 
 

it sucks. 

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3 hours ago, ChipDerby said:

It would be extremely frustrating to see TSS open under $30 mil. I'm still optimistic about a $50+ mil OW, but I have no clue how to predict in the covid age. No clue how much HBOMax siphons from the theaters, etc etc.

 

But it's extremely frustrating to also read people just trolling the film for no reason. Such is the way of online forums.

Who predicts it under 30m? Doesn't sound right at all

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Last year I expected BOP and Bad Boys 3 would switch box office results. I was convinced BOP was going to explode. Why do a have a sense of deja vu? Of course TSS has far greater reviews but I suspiciously noticed presales weren't strong for BOP (although, personally the advance sales were higher than what TSS currently stands at from my theaters). I don't remember the tracking here so I cannot speak on that. The Thursday preview showing wasn't as packed as I anticipated but I still assumed it was on the right track

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23 hours ago, Skipper Eric said:

The Suicide Squad Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting (Thu)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 36 511 8211 6.22%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 50

 

Comp

0.395x of F9 T-5 (2.8M)

0.167x of Black Widow T-5 (2.2M)

The Suicide Squad Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting (Thu)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 36 606 8211 7.38%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 95

 

Comp

0.432x of F9 T-4 (3.07M)

0.180x of Black Widow T-4 (2.38M)

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4 hours ago, Firepower said:

Joker did over a billion right before Covid.

Yes it did. 
1. It didn't open like $1B film IIRC, it more like legged its way to $1B.

2. Joker was weird case where it also worked as a CBM but then did bonkers in markets which aren't too hot for CBMs, say Europe.

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On 8/1/2021 at 7:35 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

The Suicide Squad California Harkins T-5 Days

 

Format Shows Capacity Sold % Sold Gross ATP
Normal 20 4,842 52 1.07% $658 $12.65
Cine 1 4 1,708 199 11.65% $3,184 $16.00
             
Total 24 6,550 251 3.83% $3,842 $15.31

 

Shows Added 1
Seats Added 108
Seats Sold 16

 

Addendum:

Am not gonna regularly track it but Estrella Fall, #3 theater in Chain for Black Widow has so far sold 100 seats grossing $1,443 (8.2%) on 4 shows. That's 22% of BW T-7 Days, so T-5 days is probably 20%, giving around $2.6M.

The Suicide Squad Harkins California T-4 Days

 

Format Shows Capacity Sold % Sold Gross ATP
Normal 20 4,842 66 1.36% $833 $12.62
Cine 1 4 1,708 228 13.35% $3,648 $16.00
             
Total 24 6,550 294 4.49% $4,481 $15.24

 

 

Shows Added -
Seats Added -
Seats Sold 43

 

Will check it after 2 hours again, better than yesterday but not too hot. T-3 Black Widow comp is currently 16%, will probably rise to 18% tomorrow. So that gives $2.35M. 

 

Addendum:

To have more diverse portfolio, I will track theaters from other states too I guess. For now, I am tracking Estrella Falls and Arizona Mills. 

Format Shows Capacity Sold % Sold Gross ATP
Normal 5 841 24 2.85% $288 $12.00
Cine 1 4 1,276 95 7.45% $1,425 $15.00
IMAX 2 890 94 10.56% $1,410 $15.00
             
Total 11 3,007 213 7.08% $3,123 $14.66


Comps

CA + AZ (2) - 18.8% of Black Widow T-3 Days - $2.5M

Arizona (2) - 24.7% of Black Widow T-3 Days - $3.25M

 

AZ seems to be selling better than CA, but that's mostly because of Arizona Mills IMAX being 40% of Black Widow at same time. The Normal and Cine1 at AZM are 19.6% while Estrella Falls overall is 18%.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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22 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Horrible if TSS opens that low , just like Dark Fate , horrible trailers and looks much like the same movie again

Now that’s just mean.

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On 7/31/2021 at 11:30 PM, Porthos said:

 

The Suicide Squad Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

87

14514

15124

610

4.03%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

56

 

T-5 Unadjusted Comp

 

   %

 

Sold T-5

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

BW

14.12

 

250

4320

 

0/193

22993/27313

15.82%

 

1.86m

 

1.95m

ONTARIO COMP NOTE: Ont Comp is the number given in the Comp column/0.955 to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market.

 

T-5 Adjusted Comps 

 

   %

 

Sold T-5

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

AQP II

52.42

 

163

1156

 

6/83

2342/3498

33.05%

 

2.52m

 

2.63m

F9

35.62

 

113

1606

 

0/89

11878/13484

11.91%

 

2.53m

 

2.65m

TSS (AQP adj)

---

 

56

606

 

0/87

14383/14989

4.04%

 

---

 

---

TSS (F9 adj)

---

 

49

572

 

0/75

12310/12882

4.44%

 

---

 

---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track and TSS (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's track.

 

EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP:  1.06631x of Hobbs & Shaw at T-5* [5.26m after adjusting for pandemic era environment]

* at theaters/showings I had the same level of tracking info.

 

The Suicide Squad Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

87

14373

15124

751

4.97%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

141

 

T-4 Unadjusted Comp

 

   %

 

Sold T-4

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

BW

16.24

 

305

4625

 

0/193

22688/27313

16.93%

 

2.14m

 

2.24m

ONTARIO COMP NOTE: Ont Comp is the number given in the Comp column/0.955 to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market.

 

T-4 Adjusted Comps 

 

   %

 

Sold T-4

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

AQP II

58.77

 

115

1271

 

7/85

2254/3525

36.06%

 

2.82m

 

2.95m

F9

37.70

 

200

1806

 

0/89

11678/13484

13.39%

 

2.53m

 

2.65m

TSS (AQP adj)

---

 

141

747

 

0/87

14242/14989

4.98%

 

---

 

---

TSS (F9 adj)

---

 

109

681

 

0/75

12201/12882

5.29%

 

---

 

---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track and TSS (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's track.

 

EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP:  1.12210x of Hobbs & Shaw at T-5* [5.53m after adjusting for pandemic era environment]

* at theaters/showings I had the same level of tracking info.

Edited by Porthos
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23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie Day Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
Don't Breathe 2 T-11 Jacksonville 5 8 1,199 2 0 0.17%
    Phoenix 2 3 293 3 0 1.02%
    Raleigh 5 10 1,070 2 0 0.19%
Don't Breathe 2 Total     12 21 2,562 7 0 0.27%
Respect T-11 Jacksonville 5 8 1,544 5 1 0.32%
    Phoenix 4 7 898 3 1 0.33%
    Raleigh 6 12 1,621 13 8 0.80%
Respect Total     15 27 4,063 21 10 0.52%
Respect (Fandango Premier)* T-7 Jacksonville 3 3 458 20 5 4.37%
    Phoenix 1 1 66 39 0 59.09%
    Raleigh 4 4 605 57 1 9.42%
Respect (FP) Total     8 8 1,129 116 6 10.27%
Suicide Squad T-4 Jacksonville 6 24 4,399 167 8 3.80%
    Phoenix 6 25 4,277 190 30 4.44%
    Raleigh 8 25 3,230 156 2 4.83%
Suicide Squad Total     20 74 11,906 513 40 4.31%

 

TSS ever so slightly inching forward from 2.44m to 2.45m.  At this pace, by Thursday it should be at... 2.49m.

 

*Respect Premier not including one sellout

Movie Day Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
Don't Breathe 2 T-10 Jacksonville 5 8 1,199 6 4 0.50%
    Phoenix 2 3 293 3 0 1.02%
    Raleigh 5 10 1,070 3 1 0.28%
Don't Breathe 2 Total     12 21 2,562 12 5 0.47%
Respect T-10 Jacksonville 5 8 1,544 5 0 0.32%
    Phoenix 4 7 898 3 0 0.33%
    Raleigh 6 12 1,621 16 3 0.99%
Respect Total     15 27 4,063 24 3 0.59%
Respect (Fandango Premier)* T-6 Jacksonville 3 3 458 22 2 4.80%
    Phoenix 1 1 66 41 2 62.12%
    Raleigh 4 4 605 61 4 10.08%
Respect (FP) Total     8 8 1,129 124 8 10.98%
Suicide Squad T-3 Jacksonville 6 24 4,399 203 36 4.61%
    Phoenix 6 25 4,277 218 28 5.10%
    Raleigh 8 25 3,230 196 40 6.07%
Suicide Squad Total     20 74 11,906 617 104 5.18%

 

Much better day for TSS, increasing the F9 & BW average to 2.64m.  Here's what the last week of daily sales look like for the comps, then a second chart to show how the others ended.

 

1R1N0BH.png

 

rb5DckR.png

 

*Respect Premier not including one sellout

Edited by katnisscinnaplex
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12 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Those Hobbs and Shaw comps are so good , plus the movie does seem like that. Still rooting for 4m+ Thursday , I think It's possible.

Hobbs and Shaw comp depend on the final day, as final day was when it exploded.

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3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Hobbs and Shaw comp depend on the final day, as final day was when it exploded.

I genuinely feel like that could happen, not to the extent of H&S though (because, y’know, pandemic), but that would mirror what happened in the UK last week. It feels to me like pre-sales aren’t as reliable right now because of the pandemic, I know personally speaking that in ordinary times I’d have booked TSS tickets as soon as they became available, but I didn’t book it until the day of release as I wanted to make sure I’d be able to stay socially distanced in the screening. I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s the thinking of quite a few people, especially with Delta running wild.

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