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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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1 minute ago, SnokesLegs said:

I genuinely feel like that could happen, not to the extent of H&S though (because, y’know, pandemic), but that would mirror what happened in the UK last week. It feels to me like pre-sales aren’t as reliable right now because of the pandemic, I know personally speaking that in ordinary times I’d have booked TSS tickets as soon as they became available, but I didn’t book it until the day of release as I wanted to make sure I’d be able to stay socially distanced in the screening. I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s the thinking of quite a few people, especially with Delta running wild.

Tracking thread hasn't gone wrong even once even in Post CoVID, so no. Pre-sales are as reliable as they were in past.

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1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Tracking thread hasn't gone wrong even once even in Post CoVID, so no. Pre-sales are as reliable as they were in past.

Just talking about what I saw in the UK last week really. If you’d looked at TSS presales this time last week you’d have probably predicted less than half of what it actually opened to. It really picked up on the Thursday and into the Friday.

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3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Did @Porthos stay up all night to post it. 

 

3 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

It's 6 in the morning in California right now. He probably just woke up.

 

Don't be silly, that would have been ridiculous. 

 

I only stayed up till 3 am. :ph34r:

 

Spoiler

Woke up in the middle of the night and saw that the thread was unlocked, copy-n-pasted the post from my clipboard, and then went back to sleep. 👍

 

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TSS counted today at 8am EST for Thursday, August 5 (3 days to go):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 201 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 233 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 19 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9):
14 (1 showtime)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11):
15+ (3 showtimes, still two Sell Outs reported)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 283 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal):
620 (10 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.385.
24% up since last Friday.

Now at 66% of Birds of Prey on its release day. I thought TSS could be at ca. 1.400 sold tickets today (but secretely hoped for a bit more). Would still mean TSS will - with a normal jump of ca. 100% till Thursday - overtake BoP without problems.
Hobbs & Shaw had in the same 7 theaters on the same day (= Monday of its release week) 1.194 sold tickets for Thursday. Funny that my number is still so close to that of @Porthos: He has TSS at 1.12x H&S and here it's 1.16x ;). And by the way, the numbers of the two films in the AMC Metreon are also on par for the moment.
And AQP II had on Monday of its release week 747 sold tickets for Thursday, that's still the nicest comp.
 

And for Friday, August 6 (4 days to go):
NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 197 (9 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24):
76 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 23 (7 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9):
7 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11):
14 (5 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 205 (13 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal):
418 (15 showtimes)
 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 940.
Up 32% since last Friday, a bit better than expected.
Birds of Prey had on its release day in the same 7 theaters 1.664 sold tickets for Friday which means TSS is at 56.5% now with 3 days left to come closer or overtake (and that also should happen in "my" theaters if the jumps are not too poor).
F9 had 1.656 sold tickets in the same 7 theaters on Monday of its release week so TSS is at 57%.
H&S had 1.234 sold tickets in the same 7 theaters on Monday for Friday so TSS is at 58%.
And The Conjuring 3 had on Monday for Friday 641 sold tickets.
At least this looks better now.

 

Edited by el sid
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8 minutes ago, el sid said:

Funny that my number is still so close to that of @Porthos: He has TSS at 1.12x H&S and here it's 1.16x ;). And by the way, the numbers of the two films in the AMC Metreon are also on par for the moment.

 

Been debating making this point or not, but in general The Great Secret to Success of the Tracking Thread is knowing which movies to comp to during a pre-sale run.  This is because films have different pre-sale patterns.  Even within genres there can be differences thanks to frontloading of sequels or various other demos at play.

 

The problem currently is two-fold.  With the pandemic still ongoing to one degree or another and a bunch of theaters which never came back, it makes it difficult to truly adjust for pre-COVID films (though as more current films come in, the better the ad-hoc adjustment becomes).  The other problem is, we simply don't have that many films in the COVID era to truly comp to, and some of them are already of suspect value (anything released before mid-May I think is really dubious at the moment).

 

So that means we don't have as many really great comps in the database as we once did for films that might have an outlier-ish pattern to their pre-sale runs. This doesn't matter quite as much a day or so before release as all films will converge the closer one gets to release date.  But further on out, there is room for divergence.

 

Is The Suicide Squad truly following a Hobbs & Shaw pre-sale pattern?  Hell if I know. And I ain't gonna risk the wrath of the mods by debating it, so I'll stick to comments about pre-sale tracking in general. Anything else I have to say about this topic will have to wait until the dust settles one way or the other.

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Of course I have also no idea. Hobbs & Shaw had not to fight Covid and a day and date release so it's obvious to me that being on par (at the moment) doesn't mean TSS will do 60M OW. 
Some other things might fit better IMO, e.g. that both are films to have fun and with well known movie characters. And the presale numbers of H&S and F9 were surprisingly similar (I mean F9 had at least one of the two big problems mentioned above).
I admit that I also take this comp because I don't have so many other big films and because this comp looks pretty nice for TSS ^^.
 

Edited by el sid
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1 hour ago, el sid said:

Of course I have also no idea. Hobbs & Shaw had not to fight Covid and a day and date release so it's obvious to me that being on par (at the moment) doesn't mean TSS will do 60M OW. 

 

For the record, I am slicing 15% off of the H&S comp when I make my nightly updates to account for theater closures and various other lingering pandemic concerns as an ad hoc measurement.  AQP II, F9, and BW were all in the 18 to 21 percent off range, more or less, but I changed it to a 15% downgrade to account for Ontario coming back into the market recently.

 

So even if TSS matched H&S in pre-sales at end of tracking, that comp by itself would still point to a 4.9m or so for Thursday, simply because Sacto has been outperforming the DOM market. As for how a mooted 4.9m Thr would translate to an OW?  Well, cross that bridge if we ever get to it. ;)

Edited by Porthos
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22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Suicide Squad Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total 147 661 22.24%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 76 753 10.09%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 2 DAYS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
534 82 10791 4.95% 15 53

 

Black Widow comp: 2.50M

F9 comp: 4.09M

AQP2 comp: 4.28M

Adjusted Hobbs comp: 5.01M

 

Comps are slowly but surely starting to converge.

Suicide Squad Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total 180 661 27.23%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 81 753 10.76%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
620 86 10791 5.75% 15 53

 

Black Widow comp: 2.62M

F9 comp: 4.17M

AQP2 comp: 3.79M

Adjusted Hobbs comp: 4.89M

 

Pretty solid day. I'd really like to see Highlands Ranch pick it up though. Also first day that my Hobbs comp has gone the opposite way of Porthos'.

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22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Suicide Squad Megaplex

 

T-4 days Thursday: 284(+63)/9046 in 13 theaters

 

T-5 days Friday: 189(+35)/19554 in 12 theaters

 

Suicide Squad Megaplex

 

T-3 days Thursday: 308(+37)/9204(+758) in 12 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 1.08M

F9 comp: 2.33M

 

A theater removed their Thursday showings, that's why the amount added doesn't add up with yesterday. They removed 13 seats sold, and something like 600 seats available.

 

T-4 days Friday: 222(+41)/18883(+729) in 12 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 1.78M

F9 comp: 3.41M

 

Same story here. They removed 8 seats sold and about 1400 seats available. 

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NYC Local (Monday 6pm)

 

Zombieland 2 51/1114 (4pm) 53/1114 (4pm) 67/1177 (4pm) 95/1478 [6pm] $2.85m 7:00 PM
Joker 328/3536 (4:20pm) 399/3536 (4pm) 542/3536 (4pm) 760/3741 (3:45pm) $13.3m 4:00 PM
Birds Of Prey 71/1844 (5pm) 84/1844 (7:30pm) 106/1844 (7:45pm) 166/1844 (5pm) $4m 6:00 PM
Black Widow 239/3584 (5pm)     326/3584 (5pm)     $13.2m 5:00 PM
The Suicide Squad 52/1242 (6pm)               7:00 PM

 

Comps

 

BW: $2.87m

BOP:  $2.93m

Z2: $$2.9m

Joker: $2.1m

 

 

Chart under cut

 

Spoiler

NYC Local Mon   Tues   Wed   Thur   Previews Preview Start
Shazam!         129/2229 (Afternoon) 187/2229 (3:30pm) $5.9m 4:00 PM
Avengers: Endgame 3948/4,736 (12am)     4,853/5493 (9pm)     $60m 6:00 PM
Aladdin     98/1242 (12pm)         $7m 6:00 PM
Godzilla 2         135/1915 (7:45pm) 204/2150 (3:30pm) $6.3m 4:00 PM
X-Men: DP     103/942 (4pm) 209/942 (3:15pm) 272/942 (3:45pm) $5m 6:00 PM
SLOP 2     38/771 (4pm) 43/771 (3:15pm)     $2.3m 6:00 PM
Toy Story 4     165/2049 (4pm) 233/2049 (7:40pm)     $12m 6:00 PM
SM:FFH 142/922               $2.8m Midnights Only
The Lion King 236/3228 (6:30pm) 294/3228 (6:20pm) 444/3228 (4:30pm) 557/3228 (4:30pm) $23m 6:00 PM
OUATIH     117/1179 (2:15pm) 159/1179 (4pm) 335/1179 (4:20pm) $5.8m 4:00 PM
Hobbs & Shaw 60/1543 (5:20pm)     181/1543 (4pm)     $5.8m 7:00 PM
IT Part 2 147/2764 (9am)     239/2764 (7:10pm)     $10.5m 5:00 PM
Hustlers     45/512 (4:30pm)   (4:30pm)   (4:30pm) $2.5m 6:00 PM
Downton Abbey (eps)     37/301 (4:30pm)   (4:30pm)   (4:30pm) $2.2m 7:00 PM
Ad Astra     26/602 (4:30pm) 26/602 (4:30pm) 41/602 (4:30pm) $1.5m 6:00 PM
Downton Abbey     31/512 (4:30pm) 39/512 (4:30pm) 52/1015 (4:30pm) $2.1m 7:00 PM
Rambo     29/302 (4:30pm) 53/1242 (4:30pm) 58/1242 (4:30pm) $1.3m 6:00 PM
Abominable     30/255 (4:30pm)   (4:30pm) 73/1969 (4:30pm) $.65m 6:00 PM
Joker (-1 week) 104/2766 (9am) 172/2766 (4:30pm)     217/3536 (4pm)   4:00 PM
Joker 328/3536 (4:20pm) 399/3536 (4pm) 542/3536 (4pm) 760/3741 (3:45pm) $13.3m 4:00 PM
Gemini Man     38/1004 (4pm) 38/1004 (4pm) 78/1004 [6:30pm] $1.55m 7:00 PM
Adams Family   (4pm) 53/1373 (4pm) 49/1373 (4pm)     $1.25m 4:00 PM
Maleficent 2 39/1154 (4pm) 42/1154 (4pm) 53/1154 (4pm) 96/1425 [6pm] $2.3m 7:00 PM
Zombieland 2 51/1114 (4pm) 53/1114 (4pm) 67/1177 (4pm) 95/1478 [6pm] $2.85m 7:00 PM
Black & Blue     19/410 (4pm) 19/410 (4pm) 20/410 (4pm) $.68m 7:00 PM
Countdown     15/511 (4pm)     19/411 (4pm) $.52m 7:00 PM
Terminator: DF 71/1242 (4pm) 71/1242 (4pm) 76/1242 (5:30pm) 113/1242 (4pm) $2.35m 7:00 PM
Harriet 25/512 (4pm) 25/512 (4pm) 27/512 (5:30pm) 29/512 (4pm) $.6m 7:00 PM
Midway 20/512 (4pm) 23/512 (4pm) 22/512 (4:30pm) 27/512 (5pm) $.925m 7:00 PM
Dr Sleep 23/510 (4pm) 28/510 (4pm) 28/510 (4:30pm) 53/512 (5pm) $1.5m 6:00 PM
Last Christmas 12/496 (4pm) 12/496 (4pm) 12/496 (4:30pm) 16/496 (5pm) $.575m 7:00 PM
Playing With Fire 15/654 (4pm) 15/654 (4pm) 15/654 (4:30pm) 18/654 (4pm)   4:00 PM
Ford v Ferrari 50/1152 (4pm) 48/1152 (4pm) 53/1152 (4pm) 65/1152 (5:30pm) $2.1m 6:00 PM
Charlies Angels 18/903 (4pm) 18/903 (4pm) 18/903 (4pm) 20/903 (4pm) $.9m 4:00 PM
Frozen 122/1824 (4pm) 169/ 2724 (4pm) 208/ 2724 (4:30pm) 304/2274 (4:30pm) $8.5m 6:00 PM
A Beautiful Day ... 30/768 (4pm) 30/768 (4pm) 36/768 (4:30pm) 52/768 (4:30pm) $.9m 6:00 PM
21 Bridges 26/492 (4pm) 25/492 (4pm) 30/492 (4:30pm) 44/492 (4:30pm) $.7m 7:00 PM
Knives Out (F&S eps) 42/514 (4pm) 53/514 (4pm) 67/514 (4:30pm) 85/514 (4:30pm) $2.03m 7:00 PM
Knives Out (Wed) 42/937 (4pm) 81/937 (5:30pm)         $1.66m 7:00 PM
Jumanji 2 72/1864 (4pm) 120/3381 (5:30pm) 141/3381 (5:30pm) 178/3381 (4pm) $4.7m 4:00 PM
Black Christmas 22/512 (4pm) 24/512 (5:30pm) 24/512 (5:30pm) 24/512 (4pm) $.230m 7:00 PM
Star Wars: TROS 2106/4291 (4:30pm)     2331/4547 (9pm)     $40m 6:00 PM
Cats 19/436 (4:30pm)     22/436 (5:30pm)     $.55m 7:00 PM
1917     20/512 (7pm)     36/512 (1:45pm) $3.25m 7:00 PM
Just Mercy     20/512 (7pm) 20/512 (5pm) 20/512 (1:45pm) $.8m 5:00 PM
Underwater     22/512 (7pm)     22/512 (1:45pm) $.5m 7:00 PM
Like A Boss     10/514 (7pm)     13/514 (1:45pm) $1m 7:00 PM
Doolittle 26/512 (4pm) 38/832 (9pm) 51/1285 (7pm) 67/1285 (5pm) $.9m 5:00 PM
Bad Boys 3 46/903 (4pm) 84/1543 (9pm) 121/2018 (7pm) 246/2018 (5pm) $6.36m 4:00 PM
The Gentlemen 22/512 (4pm) 22/512 (4pm) 26/512 (4pm) 33/512 (4pm) $.73m 7:00 PM
Turning 15/410 (4pm) 14/410 (4pm) 14/410 (4pm) 21/410 (4pm) $.43m 7:00 PM
Gretel & Hansel     28/602 (7pm) 29/602 (6pm) 31/602; 43/602 (4pm) (7pm) $.235m 7:00 PM
Rhythm Nation     20/512 (7pm) 22/512 (6pm) 24/512 ; 31/512 (4pm) (7pm) $.475m 7:00 PM
Birds Of Prey 71/1844 (5pm) 84/1844 (7:30pm) 106/1844 (7:45pm) 166/1844 (5pm) $4m 6:00 PM
Sonic     56/771 (5pm) 93/1499 (5pm) 118/1499 (4pm) $3m 5:00 PM
Downhill     15/410 (5pm) 15/410 (5pm) 17/410 (4pm) $.2m 6:00 PM
Photograph     28/760 (5pm) 29/760 (5pm) 39/760 (4pm) $.65m 5:00 PM
Call Of The Wild 15/410 (4pm)     36/1050 (4pm) 40/1050 (4pm) $1m 6:00 PM
Brahms: The Boy II 20/510 (4pm)     24/510 (4pm) 28/510 (4pm) $.38m 7:00 PM
Invisible Man 42/1151 (4pm) 44/1151 (4pm) 48/1151 (5pm) 70/1151 (6:30pm)   7:00 PM
Onward (Sat sneaks) 53/160 (4pm) 56/160 (4pm) 76/160 (5pm) 80/160 (6:30pm)   3pm (Sat)
Black Widow 239/3584 (5pm)     326/3584 (5pm)       5:00 PM
Escape Room     9/1028 (4pm)           3:00 PM
Roadrunner: Anthony Bourdain     9/510 (4pm)           7:00 PM
Pig     3/768 (4pm)           5:00 PM
Space Jam (Friday)     43/1204 (4pm)           Friday
Snake Eyes         14/602 (9pm)        
Green Knight     14/514 (6pm)            
Jungle Cruise     4/1652 (6pm)            
Stillwater     0/512 (6pm)            
The Suicide Squad 52/1242 (6pm)               7:00 PM

 

 

Edited by TalismanRing
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Some (slight) movement for Thursday at my Cinemark. Hoping for more but nothing I see says over 40. I think 30 would be a “win” at this point 

 

curiously checked out next week. Respect is desolate while Free Guy so far has done some activity. I’ve been low on Free Guy. It’s an expansive video game movie but the ads are only showing the “Are you married joke”. It’s original IP and I’m not expecting great reviews by any means. But maybe it can hit 20? I don’t know what expectations are. That seems typical Reynolds outside of Deadpool (high teens)

 

Respect has breakout potential but I worry since it’s main audience (old demo) might be reluctant to turn out. MGM is also getting their feet wet again with marketing and releases so they don’t have the power just yet. 

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58 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

NYC Local (Monday 6pm)

 

Zombieland 2 51/1114 (4pm) 53/1114 (4pm) 67/1177 (4pm) 95/1478 [6pm] $2.85m 7:00 PM
Joker 328/3536 (4:20pm) 399/3536 (4pm) 542/3536 (4pm) 760/3741 (3:45pm) $13.3m 4:00 PM
Birds Of Prey 71/1844 (5pm) 84/1844 (7:30pm) 106/1844 (7:45pm) 166/1844 (5pm) $4m 6:00 PM
Black Widow 239/3584 (5pm)     326/3584 (5pm)     $13.2m 5:00 PM
The Suicide Squad 52/1242 (6pm)               7:00 PM

 

Comps

 

BW: $2.87m

BOP:  $2.93m

Z2: $$2.9m

Joker: $2.1m

 

 

Chart under cut

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

That Zombieland comp is interesting. 26m would of course would be a disaster but makes sense given what’s been said here. 2.85 Thursday it did. 

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On 8/1/2021 at 12:34 PM, Menor said:

TSS MTC2

 

Thursday

Showtimes: 1413 (nc)

Seats Sold: 9763/224805 (+1006)

 

Friday

Showtimes: 3240 (+3)

Seats Sold: 7099/534757 (+697)

 

Saturday

Showtimes: 3363

Seats Sold: 5155/554605

 

I had to count a few showings manually because my script lagged out on them, so that's why the "seats available" number is a little wonky. Anyway I have never seen Friday this bad this close to release. Saturday also looks fairly low and probably will have a small drop from Friday. I'll bring back the comps starting tomorrow.

 

Thursday

Showtimes: 1523 (+110)

Seats Sold: 12219/238049 (+2456)

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 3357 (+117)

Seats Sold: 9577/547957 (+2478)

 

Thursday Comps:

BW: 2.06 million

F9: 2.37 million

JC (estimated since I took 2 hours later): 4.91 million

 

Friday Comps:

BW (estimated since I took 3 hours later): 3.95 million

F9: 5.38 million

JC (estimated since I took 2 hours later): 8.56 million

 

This is a day and a half of data. Some improvement (other than F9 Friday comp which surprisingly decreased) still looks very frontloaded, still thinking 4 million previews and mid-20s OW.

 

Weird factoid, probably not terribly important: Friday did improve quite a bit on Sunday (I did a run this morning which I did not post) and it was running well ahead of Thursday in the morning (having sold 1500 vs 1300 tickets since my Sunday early afternoon update). But then it slowed today and sold only 977 tickets (vs 1150 for Thursday) since then. I have never seen this before, usually the Fri/Th ratio improves continuously up until Wednesday. I'm wondering if the announcement of that Atom deal that @TwoMisfits mentioned caused a temporary spike for Friday.

 

Edited by Menor
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The MTC2 JC comp Th+Fri is probably a 28M weekend or so. It seems very optimistic to me for a DCEU movie to have as much PS ramp up from here as a family actioner, but crazier things have certainly happened

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3 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

The MTC2 JC comp Th+Fri is probably a 28M weekend or so. It seems very optimistic to me for a DCEU movie to have as much PS ramp up from here as a family actioner, but crazier things have certainly happened

That comp is gonna drop fast for Friday. JC sold 6k tickets for Fri between Mon night and Tues night. TSS will be lucky to do 4k. At this point MTC1 needs to do the heavy lifting and we can hope that it gets good numbers in Regal.

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