The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[RRA]

50 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

The MTC2 JC comp Th+Fri is probably a 28M weekend or so. It seems very optimistic to me for a DCEU movie to have as much PS ramp up from here as a family actioner, but crazier things have certainly happened

At this point, TSS matching BOP’s opening (33) would be a win.

[charlie Jatinder]

Knowing MTC 1 is over indexing, its hard to make any solid conclusion from just MTC 2.

[Eric Atreides]

On 8/1/2021 at 10:28 PM, Skipper Eric said:

The Suicide Squad Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	606	8211	7.38%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 95

 

Comp

0.432x of F9 T-4 (3.07M)

0.180x of Black Widow T-4 (2.38M)

The Suicide Squad Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	45	741	9179	8.07%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 9

Total Seats Added Today: 968

Total Seats Sold Today: 135

 

Comp

0.458x of F9 T-3 (3.25M)

0.203x of Black Widow T-3 (2.67M)

[charlie Jatinder]

On 8/2/2021 at 9:18 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

The Suicide Squad Harkins California T-4 Days

 

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	20	4,842	66	1.36%	$833	$12.62
Cine 1	4	1,708	228	13.35%	$3,648	$16.00
Total	24	6,550	294	4.49%	$4,481	$15.24

 

 

Shows Added	-
Seats Added	-
Seats Sold	43

 

Will check it after 2 hours again, better than yesterday but not too hot. T-3 Black Widow comp is currently 16%, will probably rise to 18% tomorrow. So that gives $2.35M. 

 

Addendum:

To have more diverse portfolio, I will track theaters from other states too I guess. For now, I am tracking Estrella Falls and Arizona Mills. 

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	5	841	24	2.85%	$288	$12.00
Cine 1	4	1,276	95	7.45%	$1,425	$15.00
IMAX	2	890	94	10.56%	$1,410	$15.00
Total	11	3,007	213	7.08%	$3,123	$14.66

Comps

CA + AZ (2) - 18.8% of Black Widow T-3 Days - $2.5M

Arizona (2) - 24.7% of Black Widow T-3 Days - $3.25M

 

AZ seems to be selling better than CA, but that's mostly because of Arizona Mills IMAX being 40% of Black Widow at same time. The Normal and Cine1 at AZM are 19.6% while Estrella Falls overall is 18%.

The Suicide Squad Harkins California T-3 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	20	4,842	111	2.29%	$1,405	$12.66
Cine 1	4	1,708	253	14.81%	$4,048	$16.00
Total	24	6,550	364	5.56%	$5,453	$14.98

 

Shows Added	-
Seats Added	-
Seats Sold	68

 

 

Comps

20.38% Black Widow - $2.67M ($2.77M adjusted for ON)

 

Addendum:

Estrella Falls and Arizona Mills

 

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	5	841	30	3.57%	$360	$12.00
Cine 1	4	1,276	111	8.70%	$1,665	$15.00
IMAX	2	890	101	11.35%	$1,515	$15.00
Total	11	3,007	242	8.05%	$3,540	$14.63

Comps

28.51% of Black Widow - $3.73M ($3.85M adjusted for ON)

 

Combined Comp

22.95% of Black Widow - $3M ($3.1M adjusted for ON)

 

Edited August 3, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

Free Guy Harkins California T-10 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	11	3,289	8	0.24%	$104	$13.00
Cine 1	0	0	0	#DIV/0!	$0	#DIV/0!
Total	11	3,289	8	0.24%	$104	$13.00

 

 

Only Normal showings started selling. FWIW T-10 days Normal screening numbers are 47% of The Suicide Squad T-7 days.

Edited August 3, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

Harkins California Tracked Data so far.

 

 

BW trendline is not accurate just joining the dots, as I tracked it in interval of 3-4 days. FG is small green spot on 10th day.

[Porthos]

17 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Suicide Squad Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	87	14373	15124	751	4.97%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

141

 

T-4 Unadjusted Comp

%

Sold T-4

Total Sold

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

Comp

Ont Comp

BW

16.24

305

4625

0/193

22688/27313

16.93%

2.14m

2.24m

ONTARIO COMP NOTE: Ont Comp is the number given in the Comp column/0.955 to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market.

 

T-4 Adjusted Comps 

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp		Ont Comp
AQP II	58.77		115	1271		7/85	2254/3525	36.06%		2.82m		2.95m
F9	37.70		200	1806		0/89	11678/13484	13.39%		2.53m		2.65m
TSS (AQP adj)	---		141	747		0/87	14242/14989	4.98%		---		---
TSS (F9 adj)	---		109	681		0/75	12201/12882	5.29%		---		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track and TSS (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's track.

 

EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP:  1.12210x of Hobbs & Shaw at T-5* [5.53m after adjusting for pandemic era environment]

* at theaters/showings I had the same level of tracking info.

 

The Suicide Squad Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	100	15314	16209	895	5.52%

 

Total Showings Added Today	13
Total Seats Added Today	1085
Total Seats Sold Today	144

 

T-3 Unadjusted Comp

%

Sold T-3

Total Sold

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

Comp

Ont Comp

BW

17.57

469

5094

0/193

22219/27313

18.65%

2.32m

2.43m

ONTARIO COMP NOTE: Ont Comp is the number given in the Comp column/0.955 to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market.

 

T-3 Adjusted Comps 

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp		Ont Comp
AQP II	58.84		240	1511		11/98	2360/3871	39.03%		2.82m		2.96m
F9	39.36		257	2063		0/122	15198/17261	11.95%		2.79m		2.93m
TSS (AQP adj)	---		142	889		0/100	15185/16074	5.53%		---		---
TSS (F9 adj)	---		131	812		0/88	13155/13967	5.81%		---		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track and TSS (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's track.

 

EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP:  1.09231x of Hobbs & Shaw at T-3* [5.38m after adjusting for pandemic era environment]

* at theaters/showings I had the same level of tracking info.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Don't Breathe 2	T-10	Jacksonville	5	8	1,199	6	4	0.50%
		Phoenix	2	3	293	3	0	1.02%
		Raleigh	5	10	1,070	3	1	0.28%
Don't Breathe 2 Total			12	21	2,562	12	5	0.47%
Respect	T-10	Jacksonville	5	8	1,544	5	0	0.32%
		Phoenix	4	7	898	3	0	0.33%
		Raleigh	6	12	1,621	16	3	0.99%
Respect Total			15	27	4,063	24	3	0.59%
Respect (Fandango Premier)*	T-6	Jacksonville	3	3	458	22	2	4.80%
		Phoenix	1	1	66	41	2	62.12%
		Raleigh	4	4	605	61	4	10.08%
Respect (FP) Total			8	8	1,129	124	8	10.98%
Suicide Squad	T-3	Jacksonville	6	24	4,399	203	36	4.61%
		Phoenix	6	25	4,277	218	28	5.10%
		Raleigh	8	25	3,230	196	40	6.07%
Suicide Squad Total			20	74	11,906	617	104	5.18%

 

Much better day for TSS, increasing the F9 & BW average to 2.64m. 

 

*Respect Premier not including one sellout

Movie	Day	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Don't Breathe 2	T-9	Jacksonville	5	8	1,199	6	0	0.50%
		Phoenix	3	4	344	3	0	0.87%
		Raleigh	5	10	1,070	1	-2	0.09%
Don't Breathe 2 Total			13	22	2,613	10	-2	0.38%
Free Guy	T-9	Jacksonville	6	27	4,347	32	32	0.74%
		Phoenix	5	10	1,398	24	24	1.72%
		Raleigh	7	19	2,098	43	43	2.05%
Free Guy Total			18	56	7,843	99	99	1.26%
Respect	T-9	Jacksonville	5	8	1,544	6	1	0.39%
		Phoenix	5	8	974	2	-1	0.21%
		Raleigh	6	12	1,621	18	2	1.11%
Respect Total			16	28	4,139	26	2	0.63%
Respect (Fandango Premier)*	T-5	Jacksonville	3	3	458	27	5	5.90%
		Phoenix	1	1	66	41	0	62.12%
		Raleigh	4	4	605	70	9	11.57%
Respect (FP) Total			8	8	1,129	138	14	12.22%
Suicide Squad	T-2	Jacksonville	6	25	4,604	241	38	5.23%
		Phoenix	6	27	4,374	260	42	5.94%
		Raleigh	8	26	3,399	229	33	6.74%
Suicide Squad Total			20	78	12,377	730	113	5.90%

 

Added Free Guy.  TSS...uh....didn't follow the comps and didn't have a much better day than Sunday.  I keep expecting it to take off, but it doesn't seem to be.  Average did increase from 2.64 to 2.67; not sure if I see this getting to a 3m preview at this point.

 

  

 

Free Guy has 99 sales in the first day.  It's at 81% of Jungle Cruise at this point (2.19m) and just getting started.

 

I'm a little worried that the Fandango premier for Respect is going to take away quite a bit from its opening weekend.  Seems like everything has been more frontloaded lately, and unless they roll this into OW we may be looking at yet another disappointing opening.

 

*Respect Premier not including one sellout

[katnisscinnaplex]

Jacksonville weekend sales by day (taken Tuesday morning)

 

	Th	Fr	Sat	Sun	Total
Suicide Squad	241	161	126	61	589
Fast & Furious 9	489	674	443	197	1,803
Black Widow	1,310	972	584	278	3,144
Jungle Cruise	116	182	131	53	482

 

I ran a few projections with different preview numbers to see where they would mult out to; here are the averages:

 

Preview - Avg Projected OW

3m - 20.37m

3.5m - 23.76m

4m - 27.15m

4.5m - 30.55m

5m - 33.94m

 

If we jump forward to where each of these ended up, we're looking for around 1,600 for TSS to stay on pace.

 

	Th	Fr	Sat	Sun	Total
Suicide Squad	?	?	?	?	?
Fast & Furious 9	1,155	2,017	941	440	4,553
Black Widow	2,333	2,445	1,206	582	6,566
Jungle Cruise	404	758	387	119	1,668

[Tinalera]

Had busy weekend and haven't gotten Toronto Numbers past few days, will get some updated Thurs and Friday Numbers later today.

 

[Legion Again]

2 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

not sure if I see this getting to a 3m preview at this point.

 

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Preview - Avg Projected OW

3m - 20.37m

Well then.    
 

Hopefully your areas are outlying on the low side.

[katnisscinnaplex]

15 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

 

Well then.    
 

Hopefully your areas are outlying on the low side.

 

Hopefully so.  It seems the weekend sales just reinforce the poor preview sales.

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Hopefully so.  It seems the weekend sales just reinforce the poor preview sales.

Well, an IM under 7 seems very reasonable based on the fundamentals, and the MTC Th vs Fri sales reinforce that. I have to imagine we would see the same in Philly, Sacto, Utah, etc if people went digging for Fri sales.    
 

So it’s mostly the preview where I’d hope to see your regions miss. And looking at other data seems quite plausible — depending on how optimistic you wanna get with comps 

[Menor the Destroyer]

22 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Well, an IM under 7 seems very reasonable based on the fundamentals, and the MTC Th vs Fri sales reinforce that. I have to imagine we would see the same in Philly, Sacto, Utah, etc if people went digging for Fri sales.    
 

So it’s mostly the preview where I’d hope to see your regions miss. And looking at other data seems quite plausible — depending on how optimistic you wanna get with comps 

I may be optimistic here but I think 4 million is doable based on MTC data. MTC2 I think is heading for about 50k final. The way MTC1 was going last week I think 90k is doable there if MTC2 hits 50k. That would be 140k final which would be a bit over 4, although could be lower if Regal underperforms like it did for BOP.

[Curtis1986]

3 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Don't Breathe 2	T-9	Jacksonville	5	8	1,199	6	0	0.50%
		Phoenix	3	4	344	3	0	0.87%
		Raleigh	5	10	1,070	1	-2	0.09%
Don't Breathe 2 Total			13	22	2,613	10	-2	0.38%
Free Guy	T-9	Jacksonville	6	27	4,347	32	32	0.74%
		Phoenix	5	10	1,398	24	24	1.72%
		Raleigh	7	19	2,098	43	43	2.05%
Free Guy Total			18	56	7,843	99	99	1.26%
Respect	T-9	Jacksonville	5	8	1,544	6	1	0.39%
		Phoenix	5	8	974	2	-1	0.21%
		Raleigh	6	12	1,621	18	2	1.11%
Respect Total			16	28	4,139	26	2	0.63%
Respect (Fandango Premier)*	T-5	Jacksonville	3	3	458	27	5	5.90%
		Phoenix	1	1	66	41	0	62.12%
		Raleigh	4	4	605	70	9	11.57%
Respect (FP) Total			8	8	1,129	138	14	12.22%
Suicide Squad	T-2	Jacksonville	6	25	4,604	241	38	5.23%
		Phoenix	6	27	4,374	260	42	5.94%
		Raleigh	8	26	3,399	229	33	6.74%
Suicide Squad Total			20	78	12,377	730	113	5.90%

 

Added Free Guy.  TSS...uh....didn't follow the comps and didn't have a much better day than Sunday.  I keep expecting it to take off, but it doesn't seem to be.  Average did increase from 2.64 to 2.67; not sure if I see this getting to a 3m preview at this point.

 

  

 

Free Guy has 99 sales in the first day.  It's at 81% of Jungle Cruise at this point (2.19m) and just getting started.

 

I'm a little worried that the Fandango premier for Respect is going to take away quite a bit from its opening weekend.  Seems like everything has been more frontloaded lately, and unless they roll this into OW we may be looking at yet another disappointing opening.

 

*Respect Premier not including one sellout

Respect previews will count towards its opening weekend.

[el sid]

TSS counted today at 10am EST for Thursday, August 5 (2 days to go):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 208 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 261 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 28 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 16 (1 showtime)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 15+ (3 showtimes, still two Sell Outs reported)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 313 (11 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 654 (12 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.495.
8% up since yesterday. Sigh, not good.

Now at 72% of Birds of Prey on its release day.
Hobbs & Shaw had in the same 7 theaters on Wednesday = one day later 1.591 sold tickets for Thursday (TSS is at 94% at the moment with one day left to overtake again).
AQP II had on Tuesday 903 sold tickets for Thursday (so TSS lost a lot since yesterday but it still is by far the best comp).
And because it was mentioned, Zombieland 2 had on Wednesday of its release week in the same 7 theaters 743 sold tickets (would mean an OW of 53.6M plus one day left for TSS). Obviously this comp isn't working for my theaters.
 

And for Friday, August 6 (3 days to go):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 221 (11 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 87 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 29 (7 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 9 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 24 (5 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 254 (15 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 465 (19 showtimes)
 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.089.
Up 16% since yesterday, hmm.
Birds of Prey had on its release day in the same 7 theaters 1.664 sold tickets for Friday so TSS is at 65% now with 2 days left to come closer or overtake (that looked better yesterday).
F9 had 2.812 sold tickets in the same 7 theaters on Wednesday for Friday so TSS is only at 39% at the moment but this percentage will of course look better tomorrow.
H&S had 1.941 sold tickets in the same 7 theaters also on Wednesday for Friday so TSS is at 56% at the moment with also 1 day left to improve percentage-wise.
The Conjuring 3 had on Tuesday 797 sold tickets which would mean an OW of 33M at the moment.
And Zombieland 2 had on Wednesday 727 sold tickets in the same 7 theaters (40.2M at the moment with 1 day left to have a bigger multiplier than 1.5 which it is today). By the way, Zombieland 2 did, compared to TSS, better in my AMCs in Michigan, Texas and Arizona and way worse on the coasts, especially in Miami and LA. So pretty much the opposite behavior.

The comps are still not so much the problem which surprised me after I saw these poor jumps of TSS – I guess I had in mind the numbers which the films made in 10 theaters back then and now it's only 7 theaters. Still, the jumps of TSS have to be a lot better tomorrow, today they were indeed worrisome. The only good news is that several showtimes were added.

[keysersoze123]

Suicide Squad Previews

MTC1 - 34568/271220 582854.90 1385 shows. 

 

I expect it to comfortably cross 40K today and 60K by end of day tomorrow. Should end up around 110K final which would normally translate to 5.5m previews but this seems to skew MTC1. Let us see how things go. Its going to be front loaded though outstanding reviews could potentially help with walk ups. But there is HBO Max access which limits walkups. I am not sure where it ends up at this point. 

[Madhuvan]

Finally it's taking up. 5m previews easily translate to over 30m weekend

[lorddemaxus]

3 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Finally it's taking up. 5m previews easily translate to over 30m weekend

As keyser said, the movie is pretty MTC 1 skewed and none of the local numbers really give me confidence that previews will be anywhere near 5 mil.

[Madhuvan]

5 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

As keyser said, the movie is pretty MTC 1 skewed and none of the local numbers really give me confidence that previews will be anywhere near 5 mil.

Anyways this is really good after all the bleak numbers. 4m+ is a great sign that reviews are finally helping and good wom is still a big factor.