The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric Atreides]

7 minutes ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

So Shang Chi's tickets should theoretically go on sale this week, right? I think Black Widow did there's a month from release.

Nah. If it was coming this week, placeholder showtimes would have happened by now, and those aren’t up yet. Hopefully next week

[ChipDerby]

15 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Being overly optimistic isn’t really going to help with toxicity though? At least, I can’t see a causal mechanism there. If a movie is heading for a number that would be disappointing, then better to set low expectations in advance and let people recalibrate gradually vs being shocked and disappointed all at once?

The alternative to being overly optimistic shouldn't be shitpost trolling.

[Porthos]

Folks, can we not do this in the thread tonight?

 

(really like to have the thread unlocked when it is time for me to do my report. )

Edited August 3, 2021 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

42 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

The alternative to being overly optimistic shouldn't be shitpost trolling.

And… it isn’t.    
 

May I interest you in a  little known technique called “being realistic?”

Edited August 4, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, Menor said:

110 seems like a lot from only 12k in the last 4 days. That would require really high bumps. 

After reading this, yeah 110k seems hard.

 

May be 38K at end of today and 45K tomorrow. Final may be 90K.

 

The ATP is very high which means it is not doing well in normal screening. So walkups will be dicey.

 

Edited August 4, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

While sales are brutal, I noticed they’re REALLY brutal with regular format screenings. The only traction TSS gains near me are large format-XD or Dolby. The 730pm regular showings are ghost towns

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, Menor said:

Free Guy MTC2

 

Thursday

Showings: 894

Seats Sold: 1276/136319

 

Friday

Showings: 2050

Seats Sold: 2199/333702

 

Probably a better start than I expected but don't think I will check this again until close to release. 

This is actually not bad at all, especially FRI. IIRC JC was just around 5K T-4/T-5 days, this has 7 days to match that. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

This is actually not bad at all, especially FRI. IIRC JC was just around 5K T-4/T-5 days, this has 7 days to match that. 

JC was 7400 on the Saturday before. It has 5 days to get there.

20 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

After reading this, yeah 110k seems hard.

 

May be 38K at end of today and 45K tomorrow. Final may be 90K.

 

The ATP is very high which means it is not doing well in normal screening. So walkups will be dicey.

 

I think 38k-48k-95k. Hopefully it does better than that.

Edited August 4, 2021 by Menor

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 8/2/2021 at 7:40 PM, Menor said:

Thursday

Showtimes: 1523 (+110)

Seats Sold: 12219/238049 (+2456)

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 3357 (+117)

Seats Sold: 9577/547957 (+2478)

 

Thursday Comps:

BW: 2.06 million

F9: 2.37 million

JC (estimated since I took 2 hours later): 4.91 million

 

Friday Comps:

BW (estimated since I took 3 hours later): 3.95 million

F9: 5.38 million

JC (estimated since I took 2 hours later): 8.56 million

 

This is a day and a half of data. Some improvement (other than F9 Friday comp which surprisingly decreased) still looks very frontloaded, still thinking 4 million previews and mid-20s OW.

 

TSS MTC2

 

Thursday

Showtimes: 1910 (+387)

Seats Sold: 15237/276962 (+3018)

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 4225 (+868)

Seats Sold: 13051/640873 (+3474)

 

Thursday Comps:

BW: 2.22 million (estimated since I took 2 hours earlier)

F9: 2.41 million (estimated since I took 1 hour earlier)

JC: 4.73 million (estimated since I took 2 hours later)

 

Friday Comps (all estimated for same reason):

BW: 4.19 million

F9: 5.63 million

JC: 7.73 million

 

Slightly over one day of data but should not make a huge difference. No change in prediction.

[charlie Jatinder]

I am also thinking $4M previews after getting to know MTC 1 performance. That shall probably lead to $8-8.5M Friday and $26M weekend. 

 

4

8.25

7.75

5.75

Edited August 4, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Borobudur]

Did TSS premiere yesterday give zero effect? 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 8/3/2021 at 8:43 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

The Suicide Squad Harkins California T-3 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	20	4,842	111	2.29%	$1,405	$12.66
Cine 1	4	1,708	253	14.81%	$4,048	$16.00
Total	24	6,550	364	5.56%	$5,453	$14.98

 

Shows Added	-
Seats Added	-
Seats Sold	68

 

 

Comps

20.38% Black Widow - $2.67M ($2.77M adjusted for ON)

 

Addendum:

Estrella Falls and Arizona Mills

 

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	5	841	30	3.57%	$360	$12.00
Cine 1	4	1,276	111	8.70%	$1,665	$15.00
IMAX	2	890	101	11.35%	$1,515	$15.00
Total	11	3,007	242	8.05%	$3,540	$14.63

Comps

28.51% of Black Widow - $3.73M ($3.85M adjusted for ON)

 

Combined Comp

22.95% of Black Widow - $3M ($3.1M adjusted for ON)

 

The Suicide Squad Harkins California T-2 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	20	4,842	150	3.10%	$1,907	$12.71
Cine 1	4	1,708	290	16.98%	$4,640	$16.00
Total	24	6,550	440	6.72%	$6,547	$14.88

 

Shows Added	-
Seats Added	-
Seats Sold	76

 

 

Comps

No Black Widow Comp but probably around 20.5% i.e. $2.7M

1.87x Jungle Cruise - $5.05M

 

Addendum:

Estrella Falls and Arizona Mills

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	5	841	38	4.52%	$456	$12.00
Cine 1	4	1,276	130	10.19%	$1,950	$15.00
IMAX	2	890	105	11.80%	$1,575	$15.00
Total	11	3,007	273	9.08%	$3,981	$14.58

No Comp available

 

I guess when I check again in 4 hours, CA will be 440 admits or so. Not a great day per se, just par yesterday. Thinking may be 1400 final in CA as compared to 1253 of Jungle Cruise and 5711 of Black Widow.

Edited August 4, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[grim22]

So I guess the warnings weren't enough.

 

STICK. TO. THE. NUMBERS.

 

Monday morning quarterbacking can wait till... Monday morning 

[charlie Jatinder]

Ok this is becoming a daily thing. I have something to say.

 

1. Please don't ban the thread just thread ban the people who are posting bad stuff.

2. Now is discussing the low opening of any film a bad thing? I mean I can see it go into toxicity and that should be stopped but we can't simply cut the purpose of the thread i.e. to track the opening of the film, good or bad. If the number are to say that XYZ is opening $20M and someone say its opening $20M is that bad thing?

 

Anyways my basic point is just the first one, don't ban the thread just thread ban the people.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Don't Breathe 2	T-9	Jacksonville	5	8	1,199	6	0	0.50%
		Phoenix	3	4	344	3	0	0.87%
		Raleigh	5	10	1,070	1	-2	0.09%
Don't Breathe 2 Total			13	22	2,613	10	-2	0.38%
Free Guy	T-9	Jacksonville	6	27	4,347	32	32	0.74%
		Phoenix	5	10	1,398	24	24	1.72%
		Raleigh	7	19	2,098	43	43	2.05%
Free Guy Total			18	56	7,843	99	99	1.26%
Respect	T-9	Jacksonville	5	8	1,544	6	1	0.39%
		Phoenix	5	8	974	2	-1	0.21%
		Raleigh	6	12	1,621	18	2	1.11%
Respect Total			16	28	4,139	26	2	0.63%
Respect (Fandango Premier)*	T-5	Jacksonville	3	3	458	27	5	5.90%
		Phoenix	1	1	66	41	0	62.12%
		Raleigh	4	4	605	70	9	11.57%
Respect (FP) Total			8	8	1,129	138	14	12.22%
Suicide Squad	T-2	Jacksonville	6	25	4,604	241	38	5.23%
		Phoenix	6	27	4,374	260	42	5.94%
		Raleigh	8	26	3,399	229	33	6.74%
Suicide Squad Total			20	78	12,377	730	113	5.90%

 

Added Free Guy.  TSS...uh....didn't follow the comps and didn't have a much better day than Sunday.  I keep expecting it to take off, but it doesn't seem to be.  Average did increase from 2.64 to 2.67; not sure if I see this getting to a 3m preview at this point.

 

  

 

Free Guy has 99 sales in the first day.  It's at 81% of Jungle Cruise at this point (2.19m) and just getting started.

 

I'm a little worried that the Fandango premier for Respect is going to take away quite a bit from its opening weekend.  Seems like everything has been more frontloaded lately, and unless they roll this into OW we may be looking at yet another disappointing opening.

 

*Respect Premier not including one sellout

Movie	Day	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Don't Breathe 2	T-8	Jacksonville	5	8	1,199	8	2	0.67%
		Phoenix	4	6	612	3	0	0.49%
		Raleigh	5	10	1,070	1	0	0.09%
Don't Breathe 2 Total			14	24	2,881	12	2	0.42%
Free Guy	T-8	Jacksonville	6	27	4,347	39	7	0.90%
		Phoenix	5	14	2,264	32	8	1.41%
		Raleigh	7	17	1,961	54	11	2.75%
Free Guy Total			18	58	8,572	125	26	1.46%
Respect	T-8	Jacksonville	5	8	1,544	6	0	0.39%
		Phoenix	5	9	1,080	4	2	0.37%
		Raleigh	6	12	1,621	25	7	1.54%
Respect Total			16	29	4,245	35	9	0.82%
Respect (Fandango Premier)	T-4	Jacksonville	4	4	553	32	5	5.79%
		Phoenix	1	1	66	42	1	63.64%
		Raleigh	4	4	605	80	10	13.22%
Respect (FP) Total			9	9	1,224	154	16	12.58%
Suicide Squad	T-1	Jacksonville	6	28	5,289	305	64	5.77%
		Phoenix	7	31	4,202	356	96	8.47%
		Raleigh	8	27	3,457	297	68	8.59%
Suicide Squad Total			21	86	12,948	958	228	7.40%

 

TSS average up to 3.01m with a pretty good day.  Currently around 44% of F9 and 20% of BW at the same point.  

 

 

Free Guy almost catches JC in day 2 (125 vs 132) which would put it around 2.5m if the comp holds.  

 

The 'sold out' showing for Respect is now showing available with only a few tickets sold.  That premiere is this coming Sunday and is at 75% of where JC was at T-4 (in only 9 showings).  

[BadOlCatSylvester]

I've pretty much given up on The Suicide Squad at this point. Hopefully Free Guy fares well at least. The reviews for that are dropping tomorrow, so we'll see how those affect the presales.

[Eric Atreides]

On 8/2/2021 at 10:55 PM, Skipper Eric said:

The Suicide Squad Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	45	741	9179	8.07%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 9

Total Seats Added Today: 968

Total Seats Sold Today: 135

 

Comp

0.458x of F9 T-3 (3.25M)

0.203x of Black Widow T-3 (2.67M)

The Suicide Squad Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	59	898	11376	7.89%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 14

Total Seats Added Today: 2,197

Total Seats Sold Today: 157

 

Comp

0.463x of F9 T-2 (3.29M)

0.209x of Black Widow T-2 (2.76M)

[Eric Atreides]

Free Guy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	32	62	6694	0.93%

 

Comp

0.484x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-9 (3.73M)

0.861x of Snake Eyes T-9 (1.2M)

0.912x of Jungle Cruise T-9 (2.46M)

 

I wasn't planning on tracking this, but @katnisscinnaplex and their data did perk my interest, so might as well give this a look. These comps are all over the place, but overall it's pretty decent and makes me confident so far in 20M+. The Snake Eyes comp might give people pause, but from the next day onwards, Snake Eyes presales pretty much died, so we should see a pickup.

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 minutes ago, Skipper Eric said:

Free Guy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	32	62	6694	0.93%

 

Comp

0.484x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-9 (3.73M)

0.861x of Snake Eyes T-9 (1.2M)

0.912x of Jungle Cruise T-9 (2.46M)

 

I wasn't planning on tracking this, but @katnisscinnaplex and their data did perk my interest, so might as well give this a look. These comps are all over the place, but overall it's pretty decent and makes me confident so far in 20M+. The Snake Eyes comp might give people pause, but from the next day onwards, Snake Eyes presales pretty much died, so we should see a pickup.

I agree with 20+ based on MTC2. Especially because based on Friday numbers it won't be frontloaded.

[Legion Again]

BOP’s long range of 15-35 seems quite solid from the first few days. Only modestly under the 20-40 they had for JC, which seems like the most natural comp.