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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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4 minutes ago, Menor said:

I agree with 20+ based on MTC2. Especially because based on Friday numbers it won't be frontloaded.

Like seeing that wrt potential frontloading. I kinda felt like its gaming themes would have possibly made the movie fan-driven towards gamers despite being an original piece, so I'm happy about that.

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On 8/2/2021 at 11:08 PM, Porthos said:

 

The Suicide Squad Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

100

15314

16209

895

5.52%

 

Total Showings Added Today

13

Total Seats Added Today

1085

Total Seats Sold Today

144

 

T-3 Unadjusted Comp

 

   %

 

Sold T-3

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

BW

17.57

 

469

5094

 

0/193

22219/27313

18.65%

 

2.32m

 

2.43m

ONTARIO COMP NOTE: Ont Comp is the number given in the Comp column/0.955 to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market.

 

T-3 Adjusted Comps 

 

   %

 

Sold T-3

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

AQP II

58.84

 

240

1511

 

11/98

2360/3871

39.03%

 

2.82m

 

2.96m

F9

39.36

 

257

2063

 

0/122

15198/17261

11.95%

 

2.79m

 

2.93m

TSS (AQP adj)

---

 

142

889

 

0/100

15185/16074

5.53%

 

---

 

---

TSS (F9 adj)

---

 

131

812

 

0/88

13155/13967

5.81%

 

---

 

---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track and TSS (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's track.

 

EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP:  1.09231x of Hobbs & Shaw at T-3* [5.38m after adjusting for pandemic era environment]

* at theaters/showings I had the same level of tracking info.

 

The Suicide Squad Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

105

15390

16452

1062

6.46%

 

Total Showings Added Today

5

Total Seats Added Today

243

Total Seats Sold Today

167

 

T-2 Unadjusted Comp

 

   %

 

Sold T-2

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

BW

18.31

 

706

5800

 

0/241

25079/30879

18.78%

 

2.42m

 

2.53m

ONTARIO COMP NOTE: Ont Comp is the number given in the Comp column/0.955 to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market.

 

T-2 Adjusted Comps 

 

   %

 

Sold T-2

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

AQP II

56.24

 

359

1870

 

26/118

2479/4349

43.00%

 

2.71m

 

2.84m

F9

39.31

 

397

2460

 

0/143

15720/18180

13.53%

 

2.79m

 

2.92m

TSS (AQP adj)

---

 

166

1055

 

0/105

15262/16317

6.47%

 

---

 

---

TSS (F9 adj)

---

 

155

967

 

0/93

13243/14210

6.81%

 

---

 

---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track and TSS (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's track.

 

EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP:  0.97212x of Hobbs & Shaw at T-2* [4.79m after adjusting for pandemic era environment]

* at theaters/showings I had the same level of tracking info.

 

Edited by Porthos
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54 minutes ago, Porthos said:

The Suicide Squad Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

105

15390

16452

1062

6.46%

 

Total Showings Added Today

5

Total Seats Added Today

243

Total Seats Sold Today

167

 

T-2 Unadjusted Comp

 

   %

 

Sold T-2

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

BW

18.31

 

706

5800

 

0/241

25079/30879

18.78%

 

2.42m

 

2.53m

ONTARIO COMP NOTE: Ont Comp is the number given in the Comp column/0.955 to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market.

 

T-2 Adjusted Comps 

 

   %

 

Sold T-2

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

AQP II

56.24

 

359

1870

 

26/118

2479/4349

43.00%

 

2.71m

 

2.84m

F9

39.31

 

397

2460

 

0/143

15720/18180

13.53%

 

2.79m

 

2.92m

TSS (AQP adj)

---

 

166

1055

 

0/105

15262/16317

6.47%

 

---

 

---

TSS (F9 adj)

---

 

155

967

 

0/93

13243/14210

6.81%

 

---

 

---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track and TSS (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's track.

 

EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP:  0.97212x of Hobbs & Shaw at T-2* [4.79m after adjusting for pandemic era environment]

* at theaters/showings I had the same level of tracking info.

 

Looking at past films, should add another 1200 from here which I think would put most comps in the mid 3s. Hopefully Sacramento is underperforming. 

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Variety say ~$30m too. Hopefully it does stay in the 30’s. Although tracking in this thread indicates an opening in the 20s. 
 

Budget: $180m. I mistakenly thought it was the same as Jungle Cruise last week ($200m). 

Edited by Krissykins
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37 minutes ago, Krissykins said:


Variety say ~$30m too. Hopefully it does stay in the 30’s. Although tracking in this thread indicates an opening in the 20s. 
 

Budget: $180m. I mistakenly thought it was the same as Jungle Cruise last week ($200m). 

064588868d161ae955f306c27a59fb8e6b974450

 

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TSS counted today at 11am EST for Thursday, August 5 (1 day to go):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 240 (5 showtimes, by the way this is an action film-affine theater, e.g. F9 was almost on par with BW)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 302 (7 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 34 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 24 
(2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11):
21+ (3 showtimes, now 1 Sell Out reported)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 324 (11 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal):
711 (12 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.656 (+161 seats).
11% up since yesterday.

Now at 79.5% of Birds of Prey on its release day.
Hobbs & Shaw had in the same 7 theaters on Wednesday 1.591 sold tickets for Thursday. Would mean a 5.5M Thursday at the moment but if the jump is not better tomorrow TSS will lose ground.
AQP II had on Wednesday 1.203 sold tickets for Thursday (would mean a 65M OW for TSS, unfortunately not too realistic).
And Zombieland 2 had on Wednesday in the same 7 theaters 743 sold tickets (would mean an OW of 59.8M for TSS, also not realistic).
 

And for Friday, August 6 (2 days to go):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 250 (11 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 106
 (15 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 35 (10 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 11
 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 41
 (10 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 310 (15 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 564
 (19 showtimes)
 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.317 (+228 seats).
Up 21% since yesterday. Interesting. The Thursday jump was again pretty poor but the Friday jump is almost decent.
Birds of Prey had on its release day in the same 7 theaters 1.664 sold tickets for Friday so TSS is at 79% now with 1 day left to come closer or overtake.
F9 had 2.812 sold tickets in the same 7 theaters on Wednesday for Friday so TSS is at 47% (= 32.9M OW for TSS at the moment).
H&S had 1.941 sold tickets in the same 7 theaters also on Wednesday for Friday so TSS is at 68% (=40.8M OW but of course TSS needs the same jump till tomorrow that H&S had back then).
The Conjuring 3 had on Wednesday 1.074 sold tickets which would mean an OW of 29.6M at the moment.
And just for fun, Zombieland 2 had on Wednesday 727 sold tickets in the same 7 theaters (48.5M OW).

Idk. One the one hand I hoped for a way better Thursday jump. OTOH, the sales went up and again several (Friday-)showtimes were added (so I guess the theaters are somewhat confident). Some shows look really empty, others are crowded (e.g. in LA where F9 also had the best presales).
Still hoping that a last day boost will happen and we don't have to rely on surprisingly good walk-ups or WOM.

Edited by el sid
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$5.5m previews would guarantee $30m+ (Possibly the best opening for a HBOMax release, even with a worst case scenario multiplier - Black Widow’s 6.1x). Or it could come in at 4 and under as others here are projecting.  
 

I still think there’s a chance WB won’t release a Thursday number anyway and we’ll never know lol. 

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Full shows are up:

 

The Suicide Squad:

7:00 Dolby: 63/236 (+1)

7:30: 10/107 (-)

8:00 IMAX: 15/372 (+6)

8:30: 0/107 (New)

9:00: 3/107 (New)

Total: 91/929 (+10/+214)

 

Comps:

 

26% of Black Widow Previews the day before (3.4M)

33% of F9 Previews (2.3M)

44% of AQP2 Previews (2.1M)

105% of Jungle Cruise Previews (2.8M)

123% of Old Previews (1.8M)

147% of The Green Knight Previews (1.1M)

182% of Snake Eyes Previews (2.5M)

 

The minuscule uptick from yesterday is pretty worrying, especially for Dolby. Some of its higher comps like Old and Jungle Cruise have lost significant steam, and the lack of new sales today feels reminiscent of Snake Eyes from two weeks ago. Black Widow is now its most favorable comp (especially since its the only non-final number in here), but even then, Widow saw strong walkups and day-of sales, something I'm not sure Suicide Squad can replicate. Mid-to-high 2s is my current expectation for previews, which would put a sub-20M OW back on the table. Not good. I'm also close to saying 30M is off the table, but I'll wait until tomorrow before locking that in.

Edited by WrathOfHan
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Sadly

 

tenor.gif

 

 

PS is not accelerating. So no reason to keep the optimism at this point. Barring a miracle its OW < 30m which to me is just BAD HBO Max or not. After all GVK managed do fairly well in much tougher conditions and we have see BW and JC open very well(though with PA as opposed to free on HBO Max). AT&T/WB management made terrible decisions as usual. 

 

Anyway SS previews are at 41490/300421 690708.58 1604 shows. So release is small and so far no burst. I think we could see 3m previews at this point. That is no good at all with the way PS has gone. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Sadly

 

tenor.gif

 

 

PS is not accelerating. So no reason to keep the optimism at this point. Barring a miracle its OW < 30m which to me is just BAD HBO Max or not. After all GVK managed do fairly well in much tougher conditions and we have see BW and JC open very well(though with PA as opposed to free on HBO Max). AT&T/WB management made terrible decisions as usual. 

 

Anyway SS previews are at 41490/300421 690708.58 1604 shows. So release is small and so far no burst. I think we could see 3m previews at this point. That is no good at all with the way PS has gone. 

 

 

shame hopefully it pick up the pace, i only hope that we wont have all the doom and gloomers all over the weekend thread talking about covid etc if covid was the main problem then jungle cruise wouldnt have open to 35 mill ....

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6 minutes ago, john2000 said:

shame hopefully it pick up the pace, i only hope that we wont have all the doom and gloomers all over the weekend thread talking about covid etc if covid was the main problem then jungle cruise wouldnt have open to 35 mill ....

A movie over performing doesn’t automatically render COVID as meaningless. COVID is still a big deciding factor for how people chose to publicly spend time 

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13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Sadly

 

tenor.gif

 

 

PS is not accelerating. So no reason to keep the optimism at this point. Barring a miracle its OW < 30m which to me is just BAD HBO Max or not. After all GVK managed do fairly well in much tougher conditions and we have see BW and JC open very well(though with PA as opposed to free on HBO Max). AT&T/WB management made terrible decisions as usual. 

 

Anyway SS previews are at 41490/300421 690708.58 1604 shows. So release is small and so far no burst. I think we could see 3m previews at this point. That is no good at all with the way PS has gone. 

 

 

3 seems a tad low. It's going to finish a decent % above JC in both MTC1 and MTC2 barring something crazy. That has to count for something. That said the pace is definitely below what I was hoping. Thinking around 3.5 now. 

Edited by Menor
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16 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Sadly

 

tenor.gif

 

 

PS is not accelerating. So no reason to keep the optimism at this point. Barring a miracle its OW < 30m which to me is just BAD HBO Max or not. After all GVK managed do fairly well in much tougher conditions and we have see BW and JC open very well(though with PA as opposed to free on HBO Max). AT&T/WB management made terrible decisions as usual. 

 

Anyway SS previews are at 41490/300421 690708.58 1604 shows. So release is small and so far no burst. I think we could see 3m previews at this point. That is no good at all with the way PS has gone. 

 

 

Can it sink below 20 mln OW with 3m previews?

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18 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

A movie over performing doesn’t automatically render COVID as meaningless. COVID is still a big deciding factor for how people chose to publicly spend time 

i never said meaningless

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12 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Can it sink below 20 mln OW with 3m previews?

Yes, conceivably the IM could go below 6. It is the first Max release with Th previews, so more uncertainty than usual.   
 

SS had a 6.5x IM — but with no Max and radically higher previews it’s not really much of a comp.    

 

Also, expected strong WOM May drag the IM higher. At this point I am pessimistic 6/optimistic 8

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