The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[ThomasNicole]

33 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

A movie over performing doesn’t automatically render COVID as meaningless. COVID is still a big deciding factor for how people chose to publicly spend time 

We all know that, it´s just that clearly exist room to make at least 35M when we just had another movie opening with that, and is a long delayed movie that wasn´t even hyped.

 

I would be extremelly happy with 40m, damn even 35M at this point i would embrace it, but 20-25M really shows the problem for this movie is bigger than Covid and HBO Max

[TalismanRing]

NYC Local	Mon		Tues		Wed		Thur		Previews	Start
X-Men: DP			103/942	(4pm)	209/942	(3:15pm)	272/942	(3:45pm)	$5m	6:00 PM
Zombieland 2	51/1114	(4pm)	53/1114	(4pm)	67/1177	(4pm)	95/1478	[6pm]	$2.85m	7:00 PM
Joker	328/3536	(4:20pm)	399/3536	(4pm)	542/3536	(4pm)	760/3741	(3:45pm)	$13.3m	4:00 PM
Birds Of Prey	71/1844	(5pm)	84/1844	(7:30pm)	106/1844	(7:45pm)	166/1844	(5pm)	$4m	6:00 PM
Terminator: DF	71/1242	(4pm)	71/1242	(4pm)	76/1242	(5:30pm)	113/1242	(4pm)	$2.35m	7:00 PM
Black Widow	239/3584	(5pm)			326/3584	(5pm)			$13.2m	5:00 PM
Hobbs & Shaw	60/1543	(5:20pm)			181/1543	(4pm)			$5.8m	7:00 PM
The Suicide Squad	52/1242	(6pm)	58/1242	(6pm)	79/1242	(6pm)				7:00 PM

 

Comps:

 

X-Men:DP: $1.89m

Z2: $3.36m

Joker: $1.94m

BOP: $2.98m

T:DF: $2.44m

H&S:  $2.53m

BW: $3.198m

 

 

 

[Krissykins]

49 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Can it sink below 20 mln OW with 3m previews?

With a multiplier as bad as Black Widow’s it could.
 

Wonder where the trades are getting $30m+ from then if no one here has any information that would back even mid 20’s up, nevermind $30m+. Shame. 

[Biggestgeekever]

I noticed that Friday evening currently looks like a ghost town for Suicide Squad around the Seattle area: one of the big AMCs currently has 55 tickets sold for Dolby at 7:00, 19 for IMAX 8:00, and only 11 for a standard 7:30 show. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

12 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

With a multiplier as bad as Black Widow’s it could.
 

Wonder where the trades are getting $30m+ from then if no one here has any information that would back even mid 20’s up, nevermind $30m+. Shame. 

I wouldn't say there is no information backing up mid-20s (see yesterday's Denver comps for example). I still think mid-20s is possible if things pick up. As for the trades, they don't use presales much in their tracking. It's mostly based on survey data I think, combined with "expectations" 

[Legion Again]

18 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

With a multiplier as bad as Black Widow’s it could.
 

Wonder where the trades are getting $30m+ from then if no one here has any information that would back even mid 20’s up, nevermind $30m+. Shame. 

AFAIK, trades generally don’t look at sales much and rely more on the official studios estimate and poll based tracking firms+subjective historical comps. Sometimes it works out well, but usually… not so much.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Suicide Squad Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

203

984

20.63%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

103

923

11.16%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
744	124	11743	6.34%	15	66

 

Showings added: 13

Seats added: 952

 

Black Widow comp: 2.81M

F9 comp: 4.21M

AQP2 comp: 3.79M

Adjusted Hobbs comp: 5.09M

 

Hard to see this going below 3M at this point unless it has a horrendous last 2 days. Whether or not it can do 4M depends how much it ramps up. BW went 1.82x from here, F9 2.29x, AQP2 2.34x, and Hobbs 3.26x(in comparable theaters with 650 tickets). Should do better than Black Widow, highly doubt it'll get close to Hobbs. We'll see how it fares against F9 and AQP2.

Suicide Squad Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

245

984

24.90%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

115

923

12.46%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
898	154	11959	7.51%	15	70

 

Showings added: 4

Seats added: 216

 

Black Widow comp: 2.92M

F9 comp: 4.15M

AQP2 comp: 3.57M

Adjusted Hobbs comp: 4.25M

Adjusted Birds of Prey comp: 3.63M

 

Not that good of a day. Would've liked to have seen something like 185 today. I don't think 4M is possible anymore. It would need to have a last day better than what F9 had(went 1.87x), and I counted that an hour early. And in the comparable theaters, it would have to more than double to at least match Hobbs and BoP.

 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Suicide Squad Megaplex

 

T-2 days Thursday: 351(+43)/9128(+310) in 13 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 1.06M

F9 comp: 2.12M

 

Some showings were removed, and a theater added back. Once again, that's why I put the added amount of seats even though the overall decreased.

 

T-3 days Friday: 342(+120)/35491(+16608) in 14 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 2.30M

F9 comp: 4.25M

Suicide Squad Megaplex

 

T-1 day Thursday: 467(+116)/9479(+351) in 13 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 1.24M

F9 comp: 2.29M

 

T-2 days Friday: 440(+98)/36101(+610) in 14 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 2.43M

F9 comp: 4.43M

 

Unfortunately this is the last day of the F9 comp. But the comps for Megaplex/Utah are useless anyways. Clearly underperforming here.

[Legion Again]

I’ve gotta ask @Shawn, since you’re around — just how much did you guys bring TSS down from 35-60 in the intervening week that us plebs haven’t seen?   
 

I understand if you can’t say for proprietary reasons, but with the weekend forecast proper going up in like 24 hours anyway I figured I’d shoot my shot.

Edited August 4, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[CJohn]

For every day that passes people are less confortable about going to theaters:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/delta-variant-disrupts-moviegoing-comfort-levels-1234992378/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR0zCLpQ4Mv_zyA4SRuU3Fc75Wx86B3qr0ezMTKM_PESHca9A21Vw5b8z0E

 

At this point you can't even compare The Suicide Squad's situation with Jungle Cruise, and certainly we are far away from the days AQP2 and F9 opened with 57M and 70M, respectively.

 

This pretty much seals the deal to me that Venom 2 will get pushed.

[john2000]

8 minutes ago, CJohn said:

For every day that passes people are less confortable about going to theaters:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/delta-variant-disrupts-moviegoing-comfort-levels-1234992378/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR0zCLpQ4Mv_zyA4SRuU3Fc75Wx86B3qr0ezMTKM_PESHca9A21Vw5b8z0E

 

At this point you can't even compare The Suicide Squad's situation with Jungle Cruise, and certainly we are far away from the days AQP2 and F9 opened with 57M and 70M, respectively.

 

This pretty much seals the deal to me that Venom 2 will get pushed.

no you can easily compare ss with jungle cruise one week even for covid its not much of a difference, at the same time if you even look at the dailies from the holdovers you will see they are are holding just fine , and their hold were also great for the most part the previous weekend.As for venom 2 delay ? nah its too early for that seeing the trend us should reach the peak by august and start declining by sept and as long as there are no more lockdowns or nationwide lockdowns (there wont be any lockdowns ) then no while box office will be affected to some capacity it wont cause delay.As for the poll i really dont trust any polls at this point everything that i have seen in some other countries and my experience in my own countries polls are very unrealible this doesnt mean that some people dont worry about covid, of course not covid is still affecting things but for now box office seems to be doing normal 

 

 

ps by the way did you even read the article ? ..

 

 

Still, the overall moviegoing comfort level of 70 percent — fueled by moviegoers under the age of 18, and led by males — is bounds ahead of where it was last winter, in the 40s. And overall ticket sales have continued to climb this spring and summer.

“While we have seen a delta-driven decline in comfort, it’s clear that many moviegoers have learned to live with COVID. Nearly twice as many moviegoers are comfortable going to the movies today as were at the peak of the surge last winter, which is reason to be optimistic that once we break this latest curve, the theatrical business will be well-positioned to continue its rebound,” says NRG’s Ray Subers.

Nor are studio executives flipping the emergency switch. Epidemiologists consulting with studios are saying that the delta variant could spike in August, with the situation improving in September.

Edited August 4, 2021 by john2000

[DAJK]

5 minutes ago, CJohn said:

For every day that passes people are less confortable about going to theaters:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/delta-variant-disrupts-moviegoing-comfort-levels-1234992378/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR0zCLpQ4Mv_zyA4SRuU3Fc75Wx86B3qr0ezMTKM_PESHca9A21Vw5b8z0E

 

At this point you can't even compare The Suicide Squad's situation with Jungle Cruise, and certainly we are far away from the days AQP2 and F9 opened with 57M and 70M, respectively.

 

This pretty much seals the deal to me that Venom 2 will get pushed.

This is why scientific literacy is so extremely important. Reporting COVID cases needs to be much more comprehensive than just pure numbers. What are hospitalization looking like? Deaths? Who is getting infected? vaccinated populations? Unvaccinated? If the pandemic numbers are just reported as one bulk figure, people who are less scientifically literate are going to take it as if we’re in the same position that we were a year ago.

And the truth is, we’re not. We’re no longer waiting for a vaccine. We have one (or multiple). It’s not just anyone who is getting infected with Delta. It’s the unvaccinated primarily. And the way we are going to have to deal with these new surges cannot be the same ways we dealt with them a year ago. The unvaccinated aren’t going to become vaccinated if we just “give them a few months to make up their minds”. If we don’t have mandatory vaccinations, these waves are going to keep coming. So those who ARE vaccinated need to understand the difference between them going to the movies a year ago when we were all unvaccinated vs going to the movies today.

 

If you’re vaccinated, you have much much less to worry about than you did before. The cases and hospitalization are alarming because 1) we don’t want to overwhelm hospitals, and 2) they’re occurring primarily in a population that seems unconcerned with doing the one thing they need to do to protect themselves.

 

Will further studio delays help their box office in the long run? Honestly I doubt it, since these waves will just keep coming and coming if we don’t get the anti-vaxxers vaccinated.

[Jamiem]

Now that this thread is open again will crosspost what I posted in the NZ thread 

 

My regular Albany theatre with comps at the bottom 

 

Quote

Albany Event Cinemas, New Zealand - The Suicide Squad Opening Day (12 hours before release)

 

10:30am VMAX 7/185

12:15pm 9/216

1:30pm VMAX 4/185

2:45pm VMAX 4/133

4:30pm VMAX 9/185

4:45pm GC 0/40

5:45pm VMAX 10/133

6:45pm 20/216

6:45pm GC 24/30

7:30pm VMAX 38/185

7:45pm GC 16/40

8:45pm VMAX 8/133

 

Total: 149/1681 (8.86%)

 

Won’t do $ figure comps as average ticket price has increased but here are some other films 12 hours before release, this is just more a sense of hype check in NZ:

 

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - 296/2230 (13.27%)

IT 2 - 502/2530 (19.84%) 

Joker - 446/2756 (16.18%)

WW84 - 734/2416 (30.38%)

Hobbs and Shaw - 361/3560 (10.14%) 

GVK (18 Hours before, had previews night before) - 149/2067 (7.21%)

 

 

Hoyts chain Thursday data night 12 hours before release, my first time doing this so no comps

Quote

HOYTS pre-sales nation wide for The Suicide Squad opening day (Thursday) roughly 12-14 hours before opening

 

Mission Bay (4 Regular Shows)

20/336 - $360

 

Botany Downs (6 Regular Shows, 4 X Shows, 3 Lux Shows, 13 Total Shows)

Regular - 14/718 - $294

X - 33/940 - $825

Lux - 27/91 - $999

 

Chirstchurch (7 X Shows, 2 Lux shows, 9 Total Shows)

X - 16/1939 - $304

Lux - 17/84 - $595

 

Hibiscus Coast (5 Regular Shows)

191/787 - $3,438

 

Hamilton (10 Regular Shows)

89/515 - $1,735

 

Northlands (6 Regular Shows)

32/594 - $480

 

Ormiston (3 Regular Shows, 7 X Shows, 10 Total Shows)

Regular - 8/252 - $168

X - 242/1280 - $6,050

 

Riccarton (1 Regular Show, 8 X Shows, 9 Total Shows)

Regular - 12/250 - $156

X - 145/3064 - $2,465

 

Sylvia Park (7 Regular Shows, 4 X Shows, 4 Lux Shows, 15 Total Shows)

Regular - 28/1830 - $588

X - 453/1688 - $11,325

Lux - 67/148 - $2,479

 

Te Awa (4 Regular Shows, 4 X Shows, 4 Lux Shows, 5 D Shows, 17 Total Shows)

Regular - 21/648 - $410

X - 46/1536 - $1,081

Lux - 31/144 - $1,147

D - 15/368 - $292

 

Wairau Park (9 Regular Shows)

29/1089 - $580

 

Totals:

Regular Shows - 444/7019 (6.33%) $7,849

X Shows -  935/10,447 (8.95%) $19,585

Lux Shows - 142/467 (30.4%) $5,220

D Shows - 15/368 (4.08%) $292

 

All Shows 1536/18301 (8.39%) $32,946

 

Also note that I treated any shows I couldn’t access as sellouts (if those are cancelled shows looking more like a $25,000 total) and using adult price as ATP so this likely isn’t perfect.

Hoyts chain Friday data from just now (24 hours before first show tomorrow)

Quote

HOYTS pre-sales nation wide for The Suicide Squad (Friday) roughly 24 hours before opening

 

Mission Bay (4 Regular Shows)

22/336 - $396

 

Botany Downs (6 Regular Shows, 4 X Shows, 3 Lux Shows, 13 Total Shows)

Regular - 20/718 - $420

X - 20/940 - $500

Lux - 21/91 - $777

 

Chirstchurch (7 X Shows, 3 Lux shows, 10 Total Shows)

X - 77/1939 - $1,463

Lux - 21/128 - $560

 

Hibiscus Coast (5 Regular Shows)

38/787 - $684

 

Hamilton (10 Regular Shows)

21/515 - $410

 

Northlands (6 Regular Shows)

37/594 - $555

 

Ormiston (4 Regular Shows, 7 X Shows, 11 Total Shows)

Regular - 10/336 - $210

X - 44/1280 - $1,100

 

Riccarton (1 Regular Show, 9 X Shows, 10 Total Shows)

Regular - 12/250 - $156

X - 145/3514 - $2,465

 

Sylvia Park (8 Regular Shows, 4 X Shows, 4 Lux Shows, 16 Total Shows)

Regular - 36/2072 - $756

X - 42/1688 - $1,050

Lux - 18/148 - $666

 

Te Awa (4 Regular Shows, 4 X Shows, 4 Lux Shows, 5 D Shows, 17 Total Shows)

Regular - 19/648 - $371

X - 54/1536 - $1,269

Lux - 26/144 - $962

D - 19/368 - $522

 

Wairau Park (9 Regular Shows)

29/1089 - $580

 

Totals:

Regular Shows - 244/7345 (3.32%) $4,538

X Shows -  382/10,897 (3.51%) $7,847

Lux Shows - 86/511 (16.83%) $2,965

D Shows - 19/368 (5.16%) $522

 

All Shows 731/19121 (3.82%) $15,872

 

It's not one to one as this is 24 hours before for Friday vs. 12 hours before for Thursday but tells a similar story going to need walkups and PLF is weaker. Also a few more showtimes for tomorrow than today but not a huge increase. 

 

Will probably be my last update for TSS as it seems like its going to be weak or backloaded, neither of which is particularly interesting to me presale data wise. 

 

Edited August 4, 2021 by Jamiem

[ThomasNicole]

11 minutes ago, CJohn said:

For every day that passes people are less confortable about going to theaters:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/delta-variant-disrupts-moviegoing-comfort-levels-1234992378/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR0zCLpQ4Mv_zyA4SRuU3Fc75Wx86B3qr0ezMTKM_PESHca9A21Vw5b8z0E

 

At this point you can't even compare The Suicide Squad's situation with Jungle Cruise, and certainly we are far away from the days AQP2 and F9 opened with 57M and 70M, respectively.

 

This pretty much seals the deal to me that Venom 2 will get pushed.

Well, NYC already decide only vaccinated people can go to a theater starting September 13. LA is considering the same.

 

That could help people to be more comfortable considering they will know only vaccinated people will be at the room.

[Legion Again]

11 minutes ago, CJohn said:

At this point you can't even compare The Suicide Squad's situation with Jungle Cruise, and certainly we are far away from the days AQP2 and F9 opened with 57M and 70M, respectively

Now that’s quite hyperbolic. That measure was at 70% for JC and will probably be ~66-67% for TSS — like a 5% drop in comfort. 5% off of 35M would still be 33M or so.

[john2000]

you can only push movie for so much longer like @EmpireCity said

[john2000]

Just now, Lokis Legion said:

Now that’s quite hyperbolic. That measure was at 70% for JC and will probably be ~66-67% for TSS — like a 5% drop in comfort. 5% off of 35M would still be 33M or so.

not only that but also exactly how much of these polls are reliable in the first place, if someone was to take a look at comfort levels around the time that GvK came i bet that it would be around 50% or so and that movie still made 31 mill on its ow 3day .....

[efialtes76]

11 minutes ago, CJohn said:

For every day that passes people are less confortable about going to theaters:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/delta-variant-disrupts-moviegoing-comfort-levels-1234992378/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR0zCLpQ4Mv_zyA4SRuU3Fc75Wx86B3qr0ezMTKM_PESHca9A21Vw5b8z0E

 

At this point you can't even compare The Suicide Squad's situation with Jungle Cruise, and certainly we are far away from the days AQP2 and F9 opened with 57M and 70M, respectively.

 

This pretty much seals the deal to me that Venom 2 will get pushed.

A family movie like JC did $4.7M on Tuesday.

SJ2 did 3.1M on his first Tuesday two weeks ago...

[ThomasNicole]

I totally agreed studios can´t do much right now.

 

The flood of delays last year was because of: nobody knows how the virus work yet + everyone is very afraid + we´re expecting the vaccines.

 

Now everyone know how the virus works, people are generally more fine with it, and there are multiple vaccines available. New waves of the pandemic will 100% sure happen if many people keep denying to take their shots, there´s nothing they can do about and delay movies even seems dumb because what they´re expecting really? Antivax people suddenly deciding they will give up?

 

I liked the idea of the vaccine passport to enter closed spaces, the two biggest cities for theaters are already considering it (one is actually confirmed), we can only hope this will make people more confident, that´s it. Theaters are open, vaccines are available, they will have to deal with smaller grosses. 

 

But in a long term i´m really afraid because virus change, antivax people will guarantee another variant worse than Delta to happen sooner or later, and then yes, things will be even worse for studios because they can´t delay their entire schedule another year.

[john2000]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

I totally agreed studios can´t do much right now.

 

The flood of delays last year was because of: nobody knows how the virus work yet + everyone is very afraid + we´re expecting the vaccines.

 

Now everyone know how the virus works, people are generally more fine with it, and there are multiple vaccines available. New waves of the pandemic will 100% sure happen if many people keep denying to take their shots, there´s nothing they can do about and delay movies even seems dumb because what they´re expecting really? Antivax people suddenly deciding they will give up?

 

I liked the idea of the vaccine passport to enter closed spaces, the two biggest cities for theaters are already considering it (one is actually confirmed), we can only hope this will make people more confident, that´s it. Theaters are open, vaccines are available, they will have to deal with smaller grosses. 

 

But in a long term i´m really afraid because virus change, antivax people will guarantee another variant worse than Delta to happen sooner or later, and then yes, things will be even worse for studios because they can´t delay their entire schedule another year.

forget movie studios the society cant keep going like this, mutations will happen its natural and thankfully at least based on what they tell us companis can change the vaccines so they will be able to work to other variants as well , at the same time most of the pandemics are in circulation what  ? 2-3 years i think , so covid at some point will also end , probably not be eradicated as that is unrealistic but to the point of where we wont have to worry .Also again people need to stop looking at the cases , you maybe have 5k cases a day but if idk 5-10 people die (then of course thats unfortunately) that means that the virus is way less severe at this point only 2 things matters death and hospitalzations...