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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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While I’m sure with each passing day more people feel less comfortable going to a theatre there’s obviously room for the TSS to make 40m or more domestically if the interest was there. 

 

Unfortunately it’s looking like it won’t come close to that and I don’t think anyone can blame covid for that. There’s lots of stuff we can discuss about why this is making what it did but let’s keep that in TSS thread. 

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1 minute ago, cax16 said:

While I’m sure with each passing day more people feel less comfortable going to a theatre there’s obviously room for the TSS to make 40m or more domestically if the interest was there. 

 

Unfortunately it’s looking like it won’t come close to that and I don’t think anyone can blame covid for that. There’s lots of stuff we can discuss about why this is making what it did but let’s keep that in TSS thread. 

blaming covid would only make sense if jungle had underperformed relative to expectations and if holdovers were doing bad , from the moment that thats not the case , then no we cant blame ss solely on covid...

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Since y'all can't help yourselves can you PLEASE take General Box Office Chit Chat to the Weekday Thread for this week I just created:

 

 

 

I figure most of that talk is vaguely more On Topic over there and less likely to get the mods upset over here.

 

Also, he said in an aside, we do have a dedicated Movie Theaters Reopening thread, you know:

 

 

Edited by Porthos
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Yeah, thanks Porthos, a lot of this recent stuff is really more suited for the reopening thread (Or the TSS thread).
 

On a separate note though, I am wondering with the increased awareness of and interest in the buzz thread that we seem to have now (which is not purely a past week phenomenon, it’s been happening since pre-covid imo) if it could make sense to have a dedicated numbers only thread+ another thread for discussion/interpretation thereof.

Edited by Lokis Legion
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3 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

On a separate note though, I am wondering with the increased awareness of and interest in the buzz thread that we seem to have now (which is not purely a past week phenomenon, it’s been happening since pre-covid imo) if it could make sense to have a dedicated numbers only thread+ another thread for discussion/interpretation thereof.

 

I vaguely recall that being tried once before.  Maybe during the time when Deep Wang was on lockdown?  Maybe it was afterwards as I was on a hiatus when most of that went down.

 

Problem is, talk about numbers invariably creeps into a Numbers Only thread and then Numbers start creeping into a Discussion thread.  Plus just the general hassle of keeping track of two threads/quoting between them.

 

There's merit to what you're suggesting.  Just don't know how practical it would be as time goes on.

 

(Also storms like the one surrounding TSS don't happen all that often and so I don't know if this would be slamming a fly with a sledge hammer)

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57 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

I’ve gotta ask @Shawn, since you’re around — just how much did you guys bring TSS down from 35-60 in the intervening week that us plebs haven’t seen?   
 

I understand if you can’t say for proprietary reasons, but with the weekend forecast proper going up in like 24 hours anyway I figured I’d shoot my shot.

It's, uh.... way down. At this point, I'm not even sure the low-end is 100% locked to be the high end by tomorrow. I'm a little stunned at how this thing is flat-lining across the board with the fan base + reviews. Maybe (hopefully) last minute sales and walk-ups will be kind, but that would go against almost everything we know about the genre.

 

 

badnews.png

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23 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

On a separate note though, I am wondering with the increased awareness of and interest in the buzz thread that we seem to have now (which is not purely a past week phenomenon, it’s been happening since pre-covid imo) if it could make sense to have a dedicated numbers only thread+ another thread for discussion/interpretation thereof.

I don’t think we need separate threads. There needs to be some clarification on what’s allowed to be discussed in here and what should be discussed in the reopening thread.

 

The reopening thread should naturally evolve into discussion about the vaccine passports, consumer confidence in being in theaters, delays, and even how streaming impacts all that. The movie threads should be discussing the general buzz and feelings about how a movie will do.

 

Obviously this is still the buzz thread, along with the tracking thread, so there should still be discussion about it. That’s something that we can discuss with numbers. YT views, Twitter views, reviews, Audience scores, Cinemascores. But the discussion around that should be more about the numbers themselves and how they compare to similar movies. The discussion around vaccine passports, streaming, and all that jazz should be very limited here and really only relating to if we can clearly see a hit in numbers from that. Free Guy is a movie I expect to see a lot of discussion around day and date. Hopefully it won’t get too bad, but that kind of discussion belongs mostly out of here.

 

Anyways, I vomited onto the screen here. Just my opinion in all this

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17 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Free Guy is a movie I expect to see a lot of discussion around day and date

You mean... because it's not going day and date, it will be discussed contrastively?

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48 minutes ago, Shawn said:

It's, uh.... way down. At this point, I'm not even sure the low-end is 100% locked to be the high end by tomorrow. I'm a little stunned at how this thing is flat-lining across the board with the fan base + reviews. Maybe (hopefully) last minute sales and walk-ups will be kind, but that would go against almost everything we know about the genre.

 

 

badnews.png

I guess you can say this is box office suicide :Venom: 

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17 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

You mean... because it's not going day and date, it will be discussed contrastively?

Yeah, but before I become hypocritical, not the place to discuss it as I said :hahaha:

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57 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Yeah, thanks Porthos, a lot of this recent stuff is really more suited for the reopening thread (Or the TSS thread).
 

On a separate note though, I am wondering with the increased awareness of and interest in the buzz thread that we seem to have now (which is not purely a past week phenomenon, it’s been happening since pre-covid imo) if it could make sense to have a dedicated numbers only thread+ another thread for discussion/interpretation thereof.

Adding on to what Porthos said, the issue the past few weeks isn't increased awareness and interest. If anything, it's a good thing people are talking more in this thread and it's good people are discussing numbers. We are a forum all about numbers discussion after all and there's a lot of fun insights and arguments we have here, regardless of franchise affiliation or not. You and Cax are model citizens in this regard. You guys have your biases, but you are aware of them and treat each movie fairly and objectively the best you can and bring valuable insights on how you think ticket sales are shaping up and what this means for movies in general.

 

The biggest problem is that a lot of people are just being an asshole, an issue that's been hitting this forum for a long time and is something we at the staff are only now trying to fix. In The Suicide Squad's case, we have people who love to dogpile DC talking shit on the movie just to rile up others. We have people who just love to dump on movies that bomb for whatever reason. There was so much shit talk on something like In the Heights that was truly not needed for instance. And on the other side of the coin, we have DC/Warner fans who either have a supreme meltdown over all the chaos (somewhat understandable) or go into hysterics on how people are being too harsh and acting like people are pro-Disney or are ignoring HBO Max or whatever.

 

That's something that cannot be fulfilled by splitting up the threads, but rather harsh discipline from the staff (I should mention however that I did not approve either of the two thread locks made by Grim and have mentioned to him my distaste for these actions).

 

And really, stuff like The Suicide Squad is the exception to what goes on around here. When the tracking thread goes into hysterics, it's typically when a major tentpole franchise release (your Mahvels, your Stair Wares, your Dee Cees, your Jurassics, your Avadahs) looks to go below expectations, whether they be from BOT or the industry. Anything else, whether good or bad, nothing bad really happens, at least to the point of unbearability. When Dumbo underperformed, there were concerns and agitation and arguments, but nothing too bad. If Free Guy's on its last few days and it drops like a rock, commentaries and debates will be largely cordial. Just like they were for Snake Eyes two weeks ago.

 

Frankly the issue is just that some people can't handle themselves or the movies they love not being the center of attention and want to act out. But that just means I have to do my job and just pray that Shang-Chi, Venom 2, Dune, Eternals, and Spider-Man don't whiff it on the presales side of things. Good thing the Bond and Top Gun stans won't be a problem.

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I honestly don't even know why this thread exists. It's impossible to track buzz for the last year and a half. Sure, tracking sales is effective for predicting the weekend. But what exactly is that accomplishing? That tells us nothing. BW had a horrible IM and Disney panicked and gave us D+ numbers. Does that mean it bombed? Who the hell knows. ITH had a smaller than expected OW, but gathered critical acclaim. GVK had a good OW, but how much of that was people not having Max yet and just really wanting to go back to the theater? To call any film in 2020/2021 a bomb/success is an impossible task because even if it was, the studios would never admit it.

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3 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

I honestly don't even know why this thread exists. It's impossible to track buzz for the last year and a half. Sure, tracking sales is effective for predicting the weekend. But what exactly is that accomplishing? That tells us nothing. BW had a horrible IM and Disney panicked and gave us D+ numbers. Does that mean it bombed? Who the hell knows. ITH had a smaller than expected OW, but gathered critical acclaim. GVK had a good OW, but how much of that was people not having Max yet and just really wanting to go back to the theater? To call any film in 2020/2021 a bomb/success is an impossible task because even if it was, the studios would never admit it.

Because numbers are fun, I like using them to predict OWs, and it gives me something to talk about with other people. I'm quite aware that the last year makes it hard to determine what's a success or not, but that's not why I do it. I'm not getting any benefits from a movie performing well and these movies are made by people who are richer than I will ever be. This stuff does not matter to me, and I think it's pretty rude to come into here and say this thread that is full of people who love doing this every day is pointless.

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The Suicide Squad 

Toronto Ontario 

Taken Aug 4 for Thurs Aug 5 AND Friday Aug 6

 

Thursday 43 Shows 

Friday 182 Shows (134 shows added)

 

Yonge dundas

               Sold       

Thursday  146 (39)      

Friday      165 (41)      

 

Scotia

Thursday 262 (15)  

Friday      239(73)                   

 

Varsity

Thurs      65(12)          1 so   

Friday     13(13)

 

Yonge Eglinton

Thurs     110(24)   

Friday    111(36)        

 

Yorkdale

Thurs     103 (25)      

Friday     134 (43)    

 

Eglinton Town

Thursday  84(20)         

Friday      106(43)          

 

Queensway

Thursday 232(58)     

Friday     290(138)            

 

Empress walk 

Thursday   88 (20)   

Friday        71 (22)           

 

Thursday Total Sold 1090 (+207)

               Total Seats 8129(-281)

Friday Total Sold 1129 (300)

           Total Seats 30901 (+22637)

 

So they added 100 and something showings and about 22000 seats between and yesterday (including an whole new theatre) for friday showings.

 

You can imagine my reaction when I started to do Fridays numbers....:bash::slaphead:\

 

Yes that was fun thanks for asking......

 

This will probably be my last thursday count. I have a weekend outing this weekend and I've got to get stuff prepared. I will do one more Friday count tomorrow, and then I will not be getting on through the weekend, so friday will be my last count for TSS.

 

Edited by Tinalera
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15 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

I honestly don't even know why this thread exists. It's impossible to track buzz for the last year and a half. Sure, tracking sales is effective for predicting the weekend. But what exactly is that accomplishing? That tells us nothing. BW had a horrible IM and Disney panicked and gave us D+ numbers. Does that mean it bombed? Who the hell knows. ITH had a smaller than expected OW, but gathered critical acclaim. GVK had a good OW, but how much of that was people not having Max yet and just really wanting to go back to the theater? To call any film in 2020/2021 a bomb/success is an impossible task because even if it was, the studios would never admit it.

 

Because the folks in this thread have put in a lot of hard work over the years, and before COVID they pretty much had their system down to a tee.  

 

We're all trying to get this thread back up and running, but it's hard when old comps don't really matter cause we're living in a post-COVID world.  So it's going to take a couple months more more precise numbers to show up -- in the mean time, we might see some crazy outliers.  

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On 8/3/2021 at 9:10 PM, Menor said:

TSS MTC2

 

Thursday

Showtimes: 1910 (+387)

Seats Sold: 15237/276962 (+3018)

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 4225 (+868)

Seats Sold: 13051/640873 (+3474)

 

Thursday Comps:

BW: 2.22 million (estimated since I took 2 hours earlier)

F9: 2.41 million (estimated since I took 1 hour earlier)

JC: 4.73 million (estimated since I took 2 hours later)

 

Friday Comps (all estimated for same reason):

BW: 4.19 million

F9: 5.63 million

JC: 7.73 million

 

Thursday

Showtimes: 2008 (+98)

Seats Sold: 19826/285462 (+4589)

 

Friday

Showtimes: 4354 (+129)

Seats Sold: 17207/652167 (+4156)

 

Thursday Comps

BW: 2.44 million

F9 (est): 2.56 million

JC (est): 4.56 million

 

Friday Comps

BW (est): 4.38 million

F9 (est): 5.68 million

JC (est) : 7.08 million

 

*estimated comps are because the comp is off by an hour or two, so I adjust based on my estimate of the hourly pace. Should not make a huge difference.

 

Thursday actually had an ok day which surprised me after the dire numbers from other trackers. Still with MTC1 slowing down and after looking at what Keyser had for BOP (when we had significantly less MTC coverage) I will bump my prediction down to 3.5. But I really cannot see it going below 3 like some have said, unless walkups are really horrible.

 

Friday on the other hand had an awful day. The pace bump was average, and with the pace so low, it needed more than that. Probably heading for 6.5-7.5 million. Weekend probably in low 20s, guessing around 23 million. Hopefully it gets great walkups tomorrow and can beat these numbers.

 

Edit: changed my range for Friday to 6.5-7.5 from 7-7.5 because, given that the presales are significantly more frontloaded than even BW, I can't rule out Friday being less than 2x Thursday. I still think it's unlikely given that TSS previews are very small and so it should be easier to double with Friday walkups, but it is far from impossible.

 

Edited by Menor
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I liked the thread is very fun seeing comparissons and the changes.

 

I do think conversations is inherent to it tho, right now especially. Taking TSS for example, there's so many variables surrounding this movie (pandemic, Rated R, HBO Max etc), that the daily updated numbers will make people guessing and then, talking about it.

 

At the same time i understand why is important to keep the threads separated and organized, especially because some people sadly use these numbers as a reason to be a troll.

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12 hours ago, Eric Quinn said:

The Suicide Squad Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting (Thu)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 59 898 11376 7.89%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 14

Total Seats Added Today: 2,197

Total Seats Sold Today: 157

 

Comp

0.463x of F9 T-2 (3.29M)

0.209x of Black Widow T-2 (2.76M)

The Suicide Squad Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting (Thu)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 62 1094 11633 9.40%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 3

Total Seats Added Today: 257

Total Seats Sold Today: 196

 

Comp

0.433x of F9 T-1 (3.07M)

0.213x of Black Widow T-1 (2.81M)

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5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Anyway SS previews are at 41490/300421 690708.58 1604 shows. So release is small and so far no burst. I think we could see 3m previews at this point. That is no good at all with the way PS has gone. 

3M is all but certain IMO. It would be around $2M by end of day I suppose. So $3.5-4M shall happen with ease.

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