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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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12 hours ago, Eric Quinn said:

Free Guy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 32 62 6694 0.93%

 

Comp

0.484x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-9 (3.73M)

0.861x of Snake Eyes T-9 (1.2M)

0.912x of Jungle Cruise T-9 (2.46M)

 

I wasn't planning on tracking this, but @katnisscinnaplex and their data did perk my interest, so might as well give this a look. These comps are all over the place, but overall it's pretty decent and makes me confident so far in 20M+. The Snake Eyes comp might give people pause, but from the next day onwards, Snake Eyes presales pretty much died, so we should see a pickup.

Free Guy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 32 68 6694 1.02%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 6

 

Comp

0.883x of Snake Eyes T-8 (1.24M)

0.883x of Jungle Cruise T-8 (2.38M)

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On 8/4/2021 at 8:54 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

The Suicide Squad Harkins California T-2 Days

Format Shows Capacity Sold % Sold Gross ATP
Normal 20 4,842 150 3.10% $1,907 $12.71
Cine 1 4 1,708 290 16.98% $4,640 $16.00
             
Total 24 6,550 440 6.72% $6,547

$14.88

 

Shows Added -
Seats Added -
Seats Sold 76

 

 

Comps

No Black Widow Comp but probably around 20.5% i.e. $2.7M

1.87x Jungle Cruise - $5.05M

 

Addendum:

Estrella Falls and Arizona Mills

Format Shows Capacity Sold % Sold Gross ATP
Normal 5 841 38 4.52% $456 $12.00
Cine 1 4 1,276 130 10.19% $1,950 $15.00
IMAX 2 890 105 11.80% $1,575 $15.00
             
Total 11 3,007 273 9.08% $3,981 $14.58


No Comp available

 

I guess when I check again in 4 hours, CA will be 440 admits or so. Not a great day per se, just par yesterday. Thinking may be 1400 final in CA as compared to 1253 of Jungle Cruise and 5711 of Black Widow.

The Suicide Squad Harkins California T-1 Day

Format Shows Capacity Sold % Sold Gross ATP
Normal 20 4,842 270 5.58% $3,428 $12.70
Cine 1 4 1,708 362 21.19% $5,792 $16.00
             
Total 24 6,550 632 9.65% $9,220 $14.59

 

Shows Added -
Seats Added -
Seats Sold 192


Comps

1.52x Jungle Cruise - $4.1M

 

JC sold 186 seats T-1 day while TSS sold 192 seats. On final day, JC sold 823 seats for 2.9x PSm. Expecting TSS to sell 750-800 seats for 1380-1430 final, which will give it 1.1-1.15x JC numbers i.e. ~$3M.

 

Addendum:

Estrella Fall and Arizona Mills

Format Shows Capacity Sold % Sold Gross ATP
Normal 5 841 58 6.90% $696 $12.00
Cine 1 4 1,276 177 13.87% $2,655 $15.00
IMAX 2 890 127 14.27% $1,905 $15.00
             
Total 11 3,007 362 12.04% $5,256 $14.52

 

The numbers are currently 18.4% of BW final #s. Will probably hit 35% in final count. Doing better than CA in these two.

 

 

 

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The Suicide Squad Harkins California T-1 Day

 

Format Shows Capacity Sold % Sold Gross ATP
Normal 20 4,842 248 5.12% $3,151 $12.71
Cine 1 4 1,708 338 19.79% $5,408 $16.00
             
Total 24 6,550 586 8.95% $8,559 $14.61

 

Comps

1.42x Jungle Cruise - $3.83M

 

I will do detailed analysis later on.

 

Addendum:

Estrella Fall and Arizona Mills

 

Format Shows Capacity Sold % Sold Gross ATP
Normal 5 841 58 6.90% $696 $12.00
Cine 1 4 1,276 166 13.01% $2,490 $15.00
IMAX 2 890 127 14.27% $1,905 $15.00
             
Total 11 3,007 351 11.67% $5,091 $14.50

I guess it's finishing par or below JC there. Pace today was a good bit lower (146 vs 178 if I'm reading the comps right)

Edited by Menor
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The Suicide Squad - Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX -- Wednesday Night Outlook

 

Thursday:

IMAX showings: 27/774

7:00 P.M.: 20/387

10:15 P.M.: 7/387

 

2D showings: 78/508

7:30 P.M.: 43/135

8:00 P.M.: 21/238

10:45 P.M.: 14/135

 

Total Sold: 105/1,282 (8.19% sold)

------------------------------------------------

Friday:

IMAX showings: 4/1,548

12:20 P.M.: 0/387

3:40 P.M.: 0/387

7:00 P.M.: 2/387

10:20 P.M.: 2/387

 

2D showings: 60/1,492

10:05 A.M.: 2/135

11:10 A.M.: 3/238

1:25 P.M.: 4/135

2:30 P.M.: 6/238

4:45 P.M.: 6/135

5:50 P.M.: 2/238

8:05 P.M.: 31/135

9:10 P.M.: 6/238

 

Total Sold: 64/3,040 (2.11% sold)
Thurs + Fri: 169/4,322 (3.91% sold)

 

Comps:

0.178x Black Widow Previews: $2.35 mil

1.75x Jungle Cruise Previews: $4.73 mil

2.838x Snake Eyes Previews: $3.97 mil

Average: $3.68 mil

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1 hour ago, Menor said:

I guess it's finishing par or below JC there. Pace today was a good bit lower (146 vs 178 if I'm reading the comps right)

Yeah most likely will give $3M comp but MTC1 will push it over 3.5

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14 hours ago, Porthos said:

The Suicide Squad Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

105

15390

16452

1062

6.46%

 

Total Showings Added Today

5

Total Seats Added Today

243

Total Seats Sold Today

167

 

T-2 Unadjusted Comp

 

   %

 

Sold T-2

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

BW

18.31

 

706

5800

 

0/241

25079/30879

18.78%

 

2.42m

 

2.53m

ONTARIO COMP NOTE: Ont Comp is the number given in the Comp column/0.955 to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market.

 

T-2 Adjusted Comps 

 

   %

 

Sold T-2

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

AQP II

56.24

 

359

1870

 

26/118

2479/4349

43.00%

 

2.71m

 

2.84m

F9

39.31

 

397

2460

 

0/143

15720/18180

13.53%

 

2.79m

 

2.92m

TSS (AQP adj)

---

 

166

1055

 

0/105

15262/16317

6.47%

 

---

 

---

TSS (F9 adj)

---

 

155

967

 

0/93

13243/14210

6.81%

 

---

 

---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track and TSS (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's track.

 

EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP:  0.97212x of Hobbs & Shaw at T-2* [4.79m after adjusting for pandemic era environment]

* at theaters/showings I had the same level of tracking info.

 

 

The Suicide Squad Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

107

15221

16564

1343

8.11%

 

Total Showings Added Today

2

Total Seats Added Today

112

Total Seats Sold Today

281

 

T-1 Unadjusted Comp

 

   %

 

Sold T-1

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

BW

19.34

 

1144

6944

 

0/258

25357/32301

21.50%

 

2.55m

 

2.67m

ONTARIO COMP NOTE: Ont Comp is the number given in the Comp column/0.955 to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market.

 

T-1 Adjusted Comps 

 

   %

 

Sold T-1

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

AQP II

55.37

 

523

2393

 

22/125

2643/5036

47.42%

 

2.66m

 

2.78m

F9

41.74

 

439

2899

 

0/168

17632/20531

14.12%

 

2.96m

 

3.10m

TSS (AQP adj)

---

 

270

1325

 

0/107

15104/16429

8.07%

 

---

 

---

TSS (F9 adj)

---

 

243

1210

 

0/95

13112/14322

8.45%

 

---

 

---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track and TSS (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's track.

 

EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP:  0.84151x of Hobbs & Shaw at T-1* [4.15m after adjusting for pandemic era environment]

* at theaters/showings I had the same level of tracking info.

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4 hours ago, Menor said:

I guess it's finishing par or below JC there. Pace today was a good bit lower (146 vs 178 if I'm reading the comps right)

I am comping with Gross. TSS has more premium seat sold than while JC was doing well in normal shows. JC sold 186 vs 192 of TSS. Updated the post.

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7 hours ago, Shawn said:

I'm a little stunned at how this thing is flat-lining across the board with the fan base + reviews.       

 

 

badnews.png

 

0iPjaz9.png

                  TOMATO LAW HAS FORSAKEN US. :( 

 

===

 

Here's hoping we're both wrong and WOM saves the day during the OW (or beyond) if not for preview night. 

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The fact of the matter is, sometimes people just don't care. No matter how much time and effort you put into a project, if the public isn't interested even after all your efforts, it's best to just take the L and move on. It happened with In the Heights, and it's likely happening here too.

 

Had we gotten this back in 2016, maybe things would be different. It would have been just half a year after Deadpool too.

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6 hours ago, ChipDerby said:

I honestly don't even know why this thread exists. It's impossible to track buzz for the last year and a half. Sure, tracking sales is effective for predicting the weekend. But what exactly is that accomplishing? That tells us nothing. BW had a horrible IM and Disney panicked and gave us D+ numbers. Does that mean it bombed? Who the hell knows. ITH had a smaller than expected OW, but gathered critical acclaim. GVK had a good OW, but how much of that was people not having Max yet and just really wanting to go back to the theater? To call any film in 2020/2021 a bomb/success is an impossible task because even if it was, the studios would never admit it.

Tracking thread is doing the job as well as it was doing pre-CoVID. The thread predicted the big opening of GvK when industry expectations were about half. The thread predicted the Demon Slayer overperformance when industry was sort of sleeping on it. The thread was correct abt BW THU and there were enough analysis on how internal multi will be around 6 only. And now, if there wasn't this thread, I bet Deadlines, Varietys would be predicting $40-50M OW for TSS.

 

Regarding films you mentioned. Disney revealing D+ numbers is their own thing. Feige was saying in some event how they need indicators to gauge success of MCU properties on D+. In case of BW they had figure to show. And its not like Disney is first to reveal these numbers. WB reported Canada PVOD numbers for their films when Canada was closed.

 

ITH, I don't think anyone really cared about it here. I think @Eric Quinn was only one to track it. I don't remember.

 

And for the rest of your text. This is thread for tracking the films, their bombing or hitting overall is discussed in other pages. The bomb or big opening are discussed here.

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23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie Day Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
Don't Breathe 2 T-8 Jacksonville 5 8 1,199 8 2 0.67%
    Phoenix 4 6 612 3 0 0.49%
    Raleigh 5 10 1,070 1 0 0.09%
Don't Breathe 2 Total     14 24 2,881 12 2 0.42%
Free Guy T-8 Jacksonville 6 27 4,347 39 7 0.90%
    Phoenix 5 14 2,264 32 8 1.41%
    Raleigh 7 17 1,961 54 11 2.75%
Free Guy Total     18 58 8,572 125 26 1.46%
Respect T-8 Jacksonville 5 8 1,544 6 0 0.39%
    Phoenix 5 9 1,080 4 2 0.37%
    Raleigh 6 12 1,621 25 7 1.54%
Respect Total     16 29 4,245 35 9 0.82%
Respect (Fandango Premier) T-4 Jacksonville 4 4 553 32 5 5.79%
    Phoenix 1 1 66 42 1 63.64%
    Raleigh 4 4 605 80 10 13.22%
Respect (FP) Total     9 9 1,224 154 16 12.58%
Suicide Squad T-1 Jacksonville 6 28 5,289 305 64 5.77%
    Phoenix 7 31 4,202 356 96 8.47%
    Raleigh 8 27 3,457 297 68 8.59%
Suicide Squad Total     21 86 12,948 958 228 7.40%

 

TSS average up to 3.01m with a pretty good day.  Currently around 44% of F9 and 20% of BW at the same point.  

 

H6Frs9q.png

 

Free Guy almost catches JC in day 2 (125 vs 132) which would put it around 2.5m if the comp holds.  

 

The 'sold out' showing for Respect is now showing available with only a few tickets sold.  That premiere is this coming Sunday and is at 75% of where JC was at T-4 (in only 9 showings).  

Movie Day Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
Don't Breathe 2 T-7 Jacksonville 5 8 1,199 11 3 0.92%
    Phoenix 4 6 612 3 0 0.49%
    Raleigh 5 10 1,070 1 0 0.09%
Don't Breathe 2 Total     14 24 2,881 15 3 0.52%
Free Guy T-7 Jacksonville 6 27 4,347 45 6 1.04%
    Phoenix 6 15 2,604 47 15 1.80%
    Raleigh 7 17 1,961 68 14 3.47%
Free Guy Total     19 59 8,912 160 35 1.80%
Respect T-7 Jacksonville 5 8 1,544 12 6 0.78%
    Phoenix 6 10 1,270 7 3 0.55%
    Raleigh 6 12 1,621 28 3 1.73%
Respect Total     17 30 4,435 47 12 1.06%
Respect (Fandango Premier) T-3 Jacksonville 4 4 553 39 7 7.05%
    Phoenix 1 1 66 43 1 65.15%
    Raleigh 4 4 605 97 17 16.03%
Respect (FP) Total     9 9 1,224 179 25 14.62%
Suicide Squad T-0 Jacksonville 6 28 5,289 400 95 7.56%
    Phoenix 7 31 4,202 466 110 11.09%
    Raleigh 8 27 3,346 401 107 11.98%
Suicide Squad Total     21 86 12,837 1,267 312 9.87%

 

TSS just isn't doing enough to push it over the top.  At the same point (preview morning), F9 had racked up 3,057 and BW had 5,791 tickets sold.  Using those comps we get 2.94m from F9 and 2.9m from BW.   I'll do my last count this afternoon before shows start, but this isn't getting my hopes up like I thought it would.  I expanded the chart below to include my afternoon numbers for the comps (1).  I was thinking that the different paths for F9 and BW would lead to a divergence in the multiplier tonight, but after plugging a few possibilities in it appears that they will stay together pretty well.  If we expect the comps to stay at 2.9m, I would expect around 1600 total this afternoon.  1700 would bump it up to 3.11m.

 

 

yU93Dil.png

 

I checked back to when I posted my F9 numbers for T-0 and found that it was my very first post!  It was nearly 2pm EST, but I know I had spent a couple hours getting pivot tables set up and learning how to embed a table on here.  Judging on how it's skewed though, I'd guess that the morning run was done a little later than my normal start time (around 8am EST).   I also checked my afternoon numbers and it looks like they were consistently taken an hour before previews started.  The difference in number of shows is staggering.  TSS (86) is so far behind F9 (151) and BW (227); BW having 5pm shows definitely helped, but I didn't expect there to be that much difference.

 

As for Free Guy, well it passed Jungle Cruise 160-155 and is on pace for 2.78m now.  I remember thinking JC was doing very poorly at this point (and for most of its run), but that was due to having poor comps.  

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TSS counted today at 11am EST for Thursday, August 5:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 271 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 363 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 71 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9):
27 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11):
35+ (4 showtimes, one unlockable)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 359 (11 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal):
803 (12 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.929+ (+273 seats).
16% up since yesterday. The sales in Grand Rapids improved the most (on a lower level), so maybe this film is not only a coast thing as I thought.

Ended at 93% of the preview number of Birds of Prey (= 3.7M).
Hobbs & Shaw had in the same 7 theaters on Thurday 2.078 sold tickets for Thursday (93% and = 5.4M; I had the wrong number yesterday, I thought 5.3M but it were 5.8M for H&S back then).
And AQP II had on Thursday 1.582 sold tickets for Thursday (= 5.85M but the shows of AQP started at 5pm).
The comps look quite good but TSS lost ground every day. But for me it's still hard to imagine that the walk-ups will be weaker than those of BoP (the comps show how important the walk-ups were, BoP and H&S were presales-wise on par in my theaters as you can see above).

 

And for Friday, August 6 (1 day to go):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 282 (11 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24):
137 (15 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 53 (10 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9):
14 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11):
59 (10 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 351 (15 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal):
664 (19 showtimes)
 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.560 (+243 seats).
Up 19% since yesterday.
Birds of Prey had in the same 7 theaters 1.664 sold tickets on Thursday for Friday so TSS is at 94%.
F9 had 3.585 sold tickets in the same 7 theaters on Thursday for Friday so TSS is at 43% (= 30.1M OW for TSS).
H&S had 2.465 sold tickets on Thursday for Friday so TSS is at 63% (= 37.8M OW).
And The Conjuring 3 had 1.435 sold tickets on Thursday for Friday which would mean an OW of 26.3M (but this film had no Thursday showtimes and all fans who wanted to see it as soon as possible had to chose the Friday).

So the presales didn't explode and it needs very good walk-ups. What gives me some hope are the experiences in the UK that the sales developed very late: E.g. @SnokesLegs posted this:...but based on what I saw from checking my local Cineworld it didn’t appear to be a particularly presale heavy film. It didn’t really start filling up until a day or two before, and even then I’d say my screening had more walk ups than presales based on how many people I saw in the actual screen.
And when I sporadically looked at some shows at noon (here) it looked terrible, in fact so terrible that I stopped. Almost all of the new sales happened in the last few hours.

Tomorrow I will report the Friday presales in my 7 theaters (counted early enough of course) because I have H&S numbers to compare (means also counted on Friday for Friday).
And I'm glad when this is over.

Edited by el sid
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TSS has sold 100 seats over 4 showtimes for tonight at my local theatre, the only things I have recently is Spacejam which had 100 seats sold as well over 9 showtimes and Green Knight sold 60 seats over 2 showings. Not the greatest comps lol , oh and JC sold 27 tickets over 3 shows.

Edited by cax16
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TSS Thursday was at 27552 in MTC2 in my last run (up 7726 since my update last night). I did update significantly earlier than usual so the pace will be inflated relative to other comps, but it's not a bad pace and walkups so far are decent. Nothing crazy to change the film's trajectory but I still think 4 million previews is possible and 3.5 at least should happen. But I also had a decent day yesterday while most other trackers showed awful days so who knows.

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