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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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14 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Suicide Squad Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

107

15221

16564

1343

8.11%

 

Total Showings Added Today

2

Total Seats Added Today

112

Total Seats Sold Today

281

 

T-1 Unadjusted Comp

 

   %

 

Sold T-1

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

BW

19.34

 

1144

6944

 

0/258

25357/32301

21.50%

 

2.55m

 

2.67m

ONTARIO COMP NOTE: Ont Comp is the number given in the Comp column/0.955 to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market.

 

T-1 Adjusted Comps 

 

   %

 

Sold T-1

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

AQP II

55.37

 

523

2393

 

22/125

2643/5036

47.42%

 

2.66m

 

2.78m

F9

41.74

 

439

2899

 

0/168

17632/20531

14.12%

 

2.96m

 

3.10m

TSS (AQP adj)

---

 

270

1325

 

0/107

15104/16429

8.07%

 

---

 

---

TSS (F9 adj)

---

 

243

1210

 

0/95

13112/14322

8.45%

 

---

 

---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track and TSS (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's track.

 

EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP:  0.84151x of Hobbs & Shaw at T-1* [4.15m after adjusting for pandemic era environment]

* at theaters/showings I had the same level of tracking info.

 

The Suicide Squad Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [12:15pm - 12:45pm]

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

111

15173

16843

1670

9.92%

 

Total Showings Added Since Last Night

4

Total Seats Added Since Last Night

279

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

327

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Unadjusted Comp

 

   %

 

Sold T-0

[Mid-Day]

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

BW

21.31

 

891

7835

 

0/258

24466/32301

24.26%

 

2.81m

 

2.95m

ONTARIO COMP NOTE: Ont Comp is the number given in the Comp column/0.955 to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market.

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Adjusted Comps 

 

   %

 

Sold T-0

[MId-Day]

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

 

Ont Comp

F9

44.45

 

491

3390

 

0/170

17331/20721

16.36%

 

3.16m

 

3.30m

TSS (F9 adj)

---

 

297

1507

 

0/99

13094/14601

10.32%

 

---

 

---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  TSS (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's track.

 

 

EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP:  0.78735x of Hobbs & Shaw at T-1* [3.88m after adjusting for pandemic era environment]

* at theaters/showings I had the same level of tracking info.

 

===

 

Gut instinct says numbers are converging in the 3.5m-ish range.  We'll see how it is at final report in a few hours.

Edited by Porthos
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43 minutes ago, Menor said:

TSS Thursday was at 27552 in MTC2 in my last run (up 7726 since my update last night). I did update significantly earlier than usual so the pace will be inflated relative to other comps, but it's not a bad pace and walkups so far are decent. Nothing crazy to change the film's trajectory but I still think 4 million previews is possible and 3.5 at least should happen. But I also had a decent day yesterday while most other trackers showed awful days so who knows.

3.5-4ish range seems pretty well supported at this point. The True Fri is what makes or breaks the weekend much more than previews, hopefully they’ve accelerated decently.

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Just now, Krissykins said:

I’ve asked a few times, but does anyone know if WB are providing Thursday numbers? They haven’t since pre-pandemic. 

 

I'd be surprised if they didn't. If not, I'll be surprised if Deadline doesn't sniff something out from their sources.

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3 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I’ve asked a few times, but does anyone know if WB are providing Thursday numbers? They haven’t since pre-pandemic. 

We don’t know, but this is the first time they’ve done previews since pre-pandemic too. If they don’t other sources will at least report an estimate.

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3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I'd be surprised if they didn't. If not, I'll be surprised if Deadline doesn't sniff something out from their sources.

Deadline, Gitesh etc all have the same sources.

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 This thread. 

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Final update

 

The Suicide Squad:

7:00 Dolby: 88/236 (+25)

7:30: 23/107 (+13)

8:00 IMAX: 17/372 (+2)

8:30: 8/107 (+8)

9:00: 10/107 (+7)

Total: 146/929 (+55)

 

Comps:

 

23% of Black Widow Previews (3M)

53% of F9 Previews (3.7M)

70% of AQP2 Previews (3.4M)

167% of Jungle Cruise Previews (4.5M)

197% of Old Previews (3M)

235% of The Green Knight Previews (1.8M)

292% of Snake Eyes Previews (4.1M)

 

3M looks safe at least, but if the Widow comp holds, that would be the bare minimum. I'll predict 3.3M with a range of 3-3.7M. It's worth noting 72% of sales here are PLF, so that will help the gross in metro areas.

Edited by WrathOfHan
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Free Guy Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total 24 214 11.21%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 30 421 7.13%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
150 N/A 7175 2.09% 14 38

 

Jungle Cruise comp: 2.60M

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8 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie Day Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
Suicide Squad T-0 Jacksonville 6 28 5,289 400 95 7.56%
    Phoenix 7 31 4,202 466 110 11.09%
    Raleigh 8 27 3,346 401 107 11.98%
Suicide Squad Total     21 86 12,837 1,267 312 9.87%

 

TSS just isn't doing enough to push it over the top.  At the same point (preview morning), F9 had racked up 3,057 and BW had 5,791 tickets sold.  Using those comps we get 2.94m from F9 and 2.9m from BW.   I'll do my last count this afternoon before shows start, but this isn't getting my hopes up like I thought it would.  I expanded the chart below to include my afternoon numbers for the comps (1).  I was thinking that the different paths for F9 and BW would lead to a divergence in the multiplier tonight, but after plugging a few possibilities in it appears that they will stay together pretty well.  If we expect the comps to stay at 2.9m, I would expect around 1600 total this afternoon.  1700 would bump it up to 3.11m.

 

 

yU93Dil.png

 

I checked back to when I posted my F9 numbers for T-0 and found that it was my very first post!  It was nearly 2pm EST, but I know I had spent a couple hours getting pivot tables set up and learning how to embed a table on here.  Judging on how it's skewed though, I'd guess that the morning run was done a little later than my normal start time (around 8am EST).   I also checked my afternoon numbers and it looks like they were consistently taken an hour before previews started.  The difference in number of shows is staggering.  TSS (86) is so far behind F9 (151) and BW (227); BW having 5pm shows definitely helped, but I didn't expect there to be that much difference.

Movie Day Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
Black Widow Late Jacksonville 6 76 12,095 2,333 555 19.29%
    Phoenix 7 77 10,692 1,881 270 17.59%
    Raleigh 8 74 8,303 3,148 746 37.91%
Black Widow Total     21 227 31,090 7,362 1,571 23.68%
F9: The Fast Saga Late Jacksonville 6 47 8,312 1,155 302 13.90%
    Phoenix 7 58 8,498 1,150 188 13.53%
    Raleigh 8 46 4,985 1,531 289 30.71%
F9: The Fast Saga Total     21 151 21,795 3,836 779 17.60%
Suicide Squad Late Jacksonville 6 30 5,373 665 265 12.38%
    Phoenix 7 31 4,202 648 182 15.42%
    Raleigh 8 29 3,464 645 244 18.62%
Suicide Squad Total     21 90 13,039 1,958 691 15.02%

 

So, as of this morning the comps were pointing to 2.9 if TSS could get to 1,600 sales.  Well, I'm happy to report that it had a great day!  With nearly as many tickets sold today as F9 did during its preview day, TSS now looks more on pace for 3.58m.  Unfortunately it only added a few shows today and ends up well behind the others; not sure if that's the case across the board but I can check that in the morning.  Either way, very very good day and things are starting to look up.

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NYC Local Mon   Tues   Wed   Thur   Previews Start
X-Men: DP     103/942 (4pm) 209/942 (3:15pm) 272/942 (3:45pm) $5m 6:00 PM
Zombieland 2 51/1114 (4pm) 53/1114 (4pm) 67/1177 (4pm) 95/1478 [6pm] $2.85m 7:00 PM
Joker 328/3536 (4:20pm) 399/3536 (4pm) 542/3536 (4pm) 760/3741 (3:45pm) $13.3m 4:00 PM
Birds Of Prey 71/1844 (5pm) 84/1844 (7:30pm) 106/1844 (7:45pm) 166/1844 (5pm) $4m 6:00 PM
Terminator: DF 71/1242 (4pm) 71/1242 (4pm) 76/1242 (5:30pm) 113/1242 (4pm) $2.35m 7:00 PM
Black Widow 239/3584 (5pm)     326/3584 (5pm)     $13.2m 5:00 PM
Hobbs & Shaw 60/1543 (5:20pm)     181/1543 (4pm)     $5.8m 7:00 PM
The Suicide Squad 52/1242 (6pm) 58/1242 (6pm) 79/1242 (6pm) 153/1242 (6:15pm)   7:00 PM

 

 

Up against all the comps I have for Thursday.  Different start and check times but I'd say between $3-3.5m so - my guess $3.3m

 

COMPS:

 

X-Men DP:  $2.8125

Z2: $4.59m

Joker: $2.67m

BOP: $3.68m

Term: DF: $3.18m

 

 

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TSS was at 34879 at MTC2 in the last run I took. Has now fallen below JC's pace after running way faster in the morning. I will update again tonight but it's probably heading for around 49k final, which will be around BOP unadjusted at MTC2, but significantly more theaters have reserved seating now so I am going with 3.7 million (MTC1 should be a bit better ratio toward BOP). This has been a rather predictable run at MTC2 in the end. Hasn't deviated at all from projections since Monday. 

Edited by Menor
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The Suicide Squad 

Toronto Ontario 

Taken Aug 5 for Friday Aug 6

 

 

Friday 182 Shows 

 

Yonge dundas

               Sold       

  Friday      216 (51)      

 

Scotia

Friday      308(69)                   

 

Varsity

Friday     41(28)

 

Yonge Eglinton

 Friday    137(26)        

 

Yorkdale

      Friday     177  

 

Eglinton Town

     Friday      155(49)          

 

Queensway

     Friday     358(60)            

 

Empress walk 

   Friday        94(23)          

 

Friday Total Sold 1486 (357)

           Total Seats 29573 (-1328)

 

This will be my final count for TSS. Im heading out for weekend tomorrow (and away from computer), so I won't be able to do the counts. I will let you ladies and gents do your comp magic, which to me is a mysterious power that I don't have the ability to harness.

:thinking:

 

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14 minutes ago, cax16 said:

28m

 

 

This isn't any comment about performance or anything like that.

 

"Targets Best R rated debut of Pandemic"....

 

How many R rated movies debuted during pandemic, these "best of" titles as we've gone on are really really reaching for finding to be the "best" of something with incredibly specific conditions.

 

I mean whats next? "Best debut of a film that has 3 lead males, 2 lead females, filmed in between April and November that had 10 thunderstorms"?

Edited by Tinalera
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6 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

This isn't any comment about performance or anything like that.

 

"Targets Best R rated debut of Pandemic"....

 

How many R rated movies debuted during pandemic, these "best of" titles as we've gone on are really really reaching for finding to be the "best" of something with incredibly specific conditions.

 

I mean whats next? "Best debut of a film that has 3 lead males, 2 lead females, filmed in between April and November that had 10 thunderstorms"?

 

"Targets Best R rated debut of Pandemic" is a very valid target title. I'd understand if it were something like "best R rated debut of the Pandemic during the month of August", but the initial title is fine. We've been using the "of pandemic" qualifier for months now.

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Suicide Squad gonna disappoint like it inevitably was based on trailer views/BOP numbers and cause a bunch of upcoming movies to move due to COVID fears, then Free Guy gonna come in with a 25m OW and come close to pre-pandemic predictions due to comedy/review angle. Watch this happen.

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21 hours ago, Eric Quinn said:

The Suicide Squad Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting (Thu)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 62 1094 11633 9.40%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 3

Total Seats Added Today: 257

Total Seats Sold Today: 196

 

Comp

0.433x of F9 T-1 (3.07M)

0.213x of Black Widow T-1 (2.81M)

The Suicide Squad Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 62 2033 11633 17.48%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 939

 

Comp

0.448x of F9 (3.18M)

0.268x of Black Widow (3.53M)

 

I mean it's basically what everybody else is projecting, so I don't think I need to add anything else here.

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1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

Suicide Squad gonna disappoint like it inevitably was based on trailer views/BOP numbers and cause a bunch of upcoming movies to move due to COVID fears, then Free Guy gonna come in with a 25m OW and come close to pre-pandemic predictions due to comedy/review angle. Watch this happen.

I know another flop would cause more doom and gloom (I mean I'm sure another movie releasing after would cause it anyways), but just hoping the second part doesn't happen. The world would be a better place if Ryan Reynolds takes an L. 

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4 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I know another flop would cause more doom and gloom (I mean I'm sure another movie releasing after would cause it anyways), but just hoping the second part doesn't happen. The world would be a better place if Ryan Reynolds takes an L. 

No 

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