The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

So Sacto massively underperformed.  Wonder why, as we usually love cape flicks here. Maybe Delta fears were more prevalent here?  Though, come to think of it, Joker massively underperformed as well, though I see little in common between the two films aside from an R rating.

 

Huh.

 

Just one of those things, I guess.

[Menor the Destroyer]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

So Sacto massively underperformed.  Wonder why, as we usually love cape flicks here. Maybe Delta fears were more prevalent here?  Though, come to think of it, Joker massively underperformed as well, though I see little in common between the two films aside from an R rating.

 

Huh.

 

Just one of those things, I guess.

Many local trackers seemed to underperform here. My guess is PLF skew impacting raw ticket sale comparisons and overperformance in major metros counting for a bit more than underperformance outside of them.  

 

18 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Filled in the weekend sales for TSS for Jacksonville.  As you can see, much more frontloaded (th/fri ratio) than any of the comps.  While walk-ups definitely played a part in that, it'll need that to continue throughout the weekend to come anywhere close to $30m.  

 

	Th	Fr	Sat	Sun	Total	Comp Prediction
Suicide Squad	665	492	289	115	1,561
Fast & Furious 9	1,155	2,017	941	440	4,553	$24,085,566
Black Widow	2,333	2,445	1,206	582	6,566	$20,819,921
Jungle Cruise	404	758	387	119	1,668	$30,233,406
Space Jam	0	1,557	460	148	2,165	$22,389,976

 

 

Notes: Th sales in chart are from 1hr before previews started; Fr, Sat and Sun sales are taken on Friday mornings.  The comp predictions use sales/gross ratio factoring in the preview sales/gross ratio from TSS as it compared to the others.

 

Friday looks bad but Saturday actually looks quite decent. Interesting. Although looking at the chart Sat/Fri ratio seems much less predictive given that JC and BW had almost identical. 

Edited August 6, 2021 by Menor

[katnisscinnaplex]

12 minutes ago, Menor said:

Friday looks bad but Saturday actually looks quite decent. Interesting. Although looking at the chart Sat/Fri ratio seems much less predictive given that JC and BW had almost identical. 

 

I tend to look at the Sat and Sun at % of the weekend sales.  So the breakdowns would be:

 

	Th	Fr	Sat	Sun
TSS	42.60%	31.52%	18.51%	7.37%
BW	35.53%	37.24%	18.37%	8.86%
F9	25.37%	44.30%	20.67%	9.66%
JC	24.22%	45.44%	23.20%	7.13%

 

Sat and Sun look pretty in line overall; I think Fri being low just makes Saturday look better.

[DAJK]

Apologies for having no update last night, I worked the entire night and it was a very busy, rushed shift, I didn’t even have much down time to send an update over the phone. But Suicide Squad pretty much performed in line with what everyone else had been saying here. My theater overindexed slightly and I would have said 4.4M but the remainder of theaters in my area would have brought it down to 3.8M

[john2000]

Just now, DAJK said:

Apologies for having no update last night, I worked the entire night and it was a very busy, rushed shift, I didn’t even have much down time to send an update over the phone. But Suicide Squad pretty much performed in line with what everyone else had been saying here. My theater overindexed slightly and I would have said 4.4M but the remainder of theaters in my area would have brought it down to 3.8M

any info about friday ? i hope that you dont mind me asking

[Paul Verhoeven]

They posted on the ATRL forum that Cinderella got 70 million views in 24 hours, is that true?

[Menor the Destroyer]

TSS morning pace at MTC2 is quite low. I took two runs (one just when I got up, one ~2 hours later). After the first it was at 31700 and after the second it was at 37731. I did a similar schedule for JC (but there was only a 90 minute gap between the two runs) and it was at 52007 and 62425. That doesn't bode well for walkups but this film seems to be more of an evening/night player as evidenced by yesterday's strong late walkups. So hopefully it can improve. 

Edited August 6, 2021 by Menor

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

TSS morning pace at MTC2 is quite low. I took two runs (one just when I got up, one ~2 hours later). After the first it was at 31700 and after the second it was at 37731. I did a similar schedule for JC (but there was only a 90 minute gap between the two runs) and it was at 52007 and 62425. That doesn't bode well for walkups but this film seems to be more of an evening/night player as evidenced by yesterday's strong late walkups. So hopefully it can improve. 

Definitely seems like a ore of an evening movie, but — what % of JC would it have to run at from here to hit 7.5M?

[DAJK]

52 minutes ago, john2000 said:

any info about friday ? i hope that you dont mind me asking

Other than walkups being unusually strong for a comic book movie, I won’t have any hard data for Canada until later

[Menor the Destroyer]

8 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Definitely seems like a ore of an evening movie, but — what % of JC would it have to run at from here to hit 7.5M?

Really depends on MTC1, making some ad hoc guesses for that, probably around 60%. Currently it's running below that pace, but should pick up in the evening. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Early evening update it's at 79677 at MTC2. Looking at MTC2 alone would give a low 7s Friday but making a guess for MTC1, think its headed for around 8m, with a better chance to go higher than lower. I did overestimate BW Friday by a good bit though, so let's see what Keyser ends up getting for final numbers. 

[charlie Jatinder]

7.5-8M seems about right.

Edited August 7, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

How are SAT PS @Menor

[Menor the Destroyer]

11 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

How are SAT PS @Menor

I haven't taken it today. Probably if I get showtimes and start now it won't be done before I sleep anyway, so will just update tomorrow morning.

[Eric Atreides]

On 8/5/2021 at 10:30 PM, Eric Quinn said:

Free Guy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	32	87	6694	1.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 19

 

Comp

1.048x of Snake Eyes T-7 (1.47M)

0.967x of Jungle Cruise T-7 (2.61M)

 

Pretty solid review bump that once again shows the film is tracking well in terms of presales and tickets sold. Don't really have anything else to add.

Free Guy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	32	99	6694	1.48%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 12

 

Comp

1.138x of Snake Eyes T-6 (1.59M)

0.861x of Jungle Cruise T-5 (2.32M)

[keysersoze123]

Suicide Squad Friday

MTC1 - 131341/872959 1891676.03 4673 shows

 

Something about my dbox adjust part does not look ok. I think it did around 94K tickets at MTC2 and that is about 1.05m. This is tough to project. Compared to F9 it did like 45% at MTC1 and 1/3rd at MTC2. I am thinking about 8.5m friday and so 12.6m with previews. But this is a hard one to project. 

 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

So 12m would mean 29ish, maybe 30?
 

Jungle Cruise- (13.4)

Birds of Prey- (12.9)

[charlie Jatinder]

Comparing with BoP, MTC1 seems 95%, though with more coverage can push around 92-93%. MTC 2 is bit lower and a lot lower with @Menor numbers. 

 

It's hard but I am thinking 7.75-8ish

[charlie Jatinder]

38 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

So 12m would mean 29ish, maybe 30?
 

Jungle Cruise- (13.4)

Birds of Prey- (12.9)

25-26.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

25-26.

How would it go that low unless you’re expecting major frontloading?