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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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26 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Why would Marvel do that? Burning demand and spoiler fear. 😐

I am in same boat as you.It's tragic. I don't understand Marvel/Disney ,it's like they want to give the movie worst possible hurdles. 

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30 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Why would Marvel do that? Burning demand and spoiler fear. 😐

It's a common practice if the studio feels like there isn't the amount of buzz they want for a movie. I haven't really been following along with this film tbh so I am not sure where its at buzz wise but I know I've seen "concern" posts so maybe Disney/Marvel were feeling similarly and decided to nip all of that in the bud with early screenings. It's actually a really good idea especially if the movie is good/well received. 

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3 minutes ago, Nova said:

It's a common practice if the studio feels like there isn't the amount of buzz they want for a movie. I haven't really been following along with this film tbh so I am not sure where its at buzz wise but I know I've seen "concern" posts so maybe Disney/Marvel were feeling similarly and decided to nip all of that in the bud with early screenings. It's actually a really good idea especially if the movie is good/well received. 

Before looking up the website, I thought they are possibly doing IMAX screenings across US but its only 25 theaters. The main concern for me personally is spoilers. Gonna quarantine myself from potential spoilers.

 

11 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

I am in same boat as you.It's tragic. I don't understand Marvel/Disney ,it's like they want to give the movie worst possible hurdles. 

LOL. I don't think Disney is doing this sabotage the film. So not same boat per se 😛

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8 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Yeah, overall SC first day seems to be about half of BW, which would give us 6,6 M previews (which to be honest would still be good).

 

But BW is an stablish character with a somewhat big fanbase, it was also the first MCU movie in 2 years, so not only it was frontloaded in general but the rush also happen with presales.

 

SC despite also pretty good first day is presenting a new character, other than MCU diehards no reason for this to perform like BW. I think it will be closer to F9 than BW actually. Because of that i'm pretty confident in 7-8M previews.

 

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Thursday:

 

The Night House: 11/107

 

Comps (Total/PTA since Night House is only getting 2k theaters at the moment):

 

10% of AQP2 two days out (480k/320k)

44% of Old two days out (660k/440k)

46% of Escape Room 2 two days out (550k/465k)

138% of Don't Breathe 2 two days out (1.3M/1M)

 

These are encouraging enough to be on the higher end of its tracking. More theaters and walkups would help it further.

 

The Protégé: 9/107

 

Comps:

 

3% of Black Widow the day before (395k)

7% of F9 three days out (490k)

8% of AQP2 two days out (385k)

11% of The Suicide Squad two days out (450k)

36% of Free Guy two days out (790k)

38% of Old two days out (570k)

38% of Snake Eyes two days out (530k)

 

Not sure where to pinpoint this one considering every comp offers a different story. Free Guy underperformed a little bit at my theater, but I'd expect Protégé to be closer to that comp than the others due to its walkup nature. 600-650k sounds right for now.

 

Friday:

 

Paw Patrol:

1:00 Sensory Friendly: 0/40

2:00: 1/107

4:30: 2/107

7:15: 6/77

9:30: 0/77

Total: 9/398

 

Paw Patrol is running at 24% of Space Jam three days out (3.1M). 10M is feasible for the weekend, especially if my theater is an outlier.

 

Reminiscence:

1:45: 0/107

4:45: 0/107

7:45: 1/107

9:30: 1/107

Total: 2/428

 

lmao :Venom: 

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So THU tickets
MTC1 is ~74% of BW
MTC2 is 46% of BW

 

This is weird but I guess MTC1 was limited due to capacity and that may have moved some business to other chains including MTC 2 for BW.

 

Other factor is ATP for Shang Chi is very high, in both MTC 1 and 2 per Keyser numbers. I didnt expected that to be the case though. 

 

Overall THU gross is 73% of BW, which I will be ignoring for now. Tickets BW sold an est. 95K while SC would be 55K Approx. This suggests $8M Approx THU for now.

 

As for FRI, 53% in MTC 2 of BW. Though that don't really matter much.

 

My realistic expectations for weekend

7.5
16
18.5
16 // 58

 

My bit optimistic expectations

 

8.5
18.5
22

20 // 69

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Average ticket prices will trend down as we go along. Early tickets are skewed heavily with Imax/PLF and in big markets. Lincoln Square Imax tickets cost $27 for example and has almost sold 300 tickets for evening show. 

 

 

I understand that, thing is BW was just $14.5 and it had sold more in Empire. Lincoln I didn't check while AMC Disney Spring seems close.

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38 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

So THU tickets
MTC1 is ~74% of BW
MTC2 is 46% of BW

 

This is weird but I guess MTC1 was limited due to capacity and that may have moved some business to other chains including MTC 2 for BW.

 

Other factor is ATP for Shang Chi is very high, in both MTC 1 and 2 per Keyser numbers. I didnt expected that to be the case though. 

 

Overall THU gross is 73% of BW, which I will be ignoring for now. Tickets BW sold an est. 95K while SC would be 55K Approx. This suggests $8M Approx THU for now.

 

As for FRI, 53% in MTC 2 of BW. Though that don't really matter much.

 

My realistic expectations for weekend

7.5
16
18.5
16 // 58

 

My bit optimistic expectations

 

8.5
18.5
22

20 // 69

in other words 60-70 mill 3day ow  ,also there are no realistic or optimistic expectations this early maybe your current optimistic scenario will end as the realistic one 👀

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Shang-Chi counted today at 9am EST (first 24h) for Thursday, September 2:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 174 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24):
120 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 6 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9):
14 (1 showtime)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11):
19 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 308 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal):
440 (8 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.081.

Comps: BW had after one day in 4 theaters 300 sold tickets, Shang-Chi has in the same 4 theaters 213 sold tickets (71%, almost on par in the AMC in NY, way behind in Michigan, a bit behind in Texas and solid in Arizona).
TSS had
19 days before its previews in 7 theaters 585 sold tickets, means at the moment 1.85xTSS = ca. 48.5M OW. But because the tickets for TSS were on that Saturday already available for some days, a fairer comp will be in a few days and that will for sure point to 50M+ (could also be 60M+) for Shang-Chi.

 

Reminiscence counted today at 11am EST for Friday, August 20:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 64 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24):
4 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 2 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9):
4 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11):
1 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 52 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal):
57 (3 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 184.
Up good 55% since yesterday.

Comps: Stillwater (5.2M OW) had on Wednesday for Friday 41 sold tickets in 6 theaters (so here vs 120) and THWB (11.4M OW) had also on Wednesday for Friday 132 sold tickets (I'm sorry, I made a mistake yesterday: I reported 125 tickets for THWB and already wondered about the high number but that was for its previews on the next day).
And TWWMD had on Tuesday in 4 theaters 72 sold tickets, Reminiscence has in the same 4 theaters 174 sold tickets today.
Still a bit weak between the coasts and also in Florida (so here in line with what @WrathOfHan reported) but overall this looks - compared to the expectations - really ok.

Paw Patrol: The Movie counted today at 11am EST for Friday, August 20:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes yet
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 52 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 30 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9):
27 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11):
14 (1 showtime)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 18 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal):
59 (5 showtimes)
 

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 200.

Up 43% since yesterday.
Comps: Dolittle (21.8M OW) had in the same 6 theaters on Wednesday for Friday 240 sold tickets and
The Boss Baby 2
(16.0M OW) had also on Wednesday in the same 6 theaters 140 sold tickets.
Still good.

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10 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

When do Candyman tickets go on sale?

Seems like it'll be soon as I see AMC and Regal showtimes listed but not available for sale yet. Weird to do presales so late but I still think it'll do at least ok. 

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On 8/16/2021 at 9:00 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
T-3 The Night House Jacksonville 5 8 811 4 0 0.49%
    Phoenix 5 8 878 5 1 0.57%
    Raleigh 6 12 1,246 9 0 0.72%
  The Night House Total   16 28 2,935 18 1 0.61%
  The Protégé Jacksonville 5 8 970 9 0 0.93%
    Phoenix 6 9 1,370 15 2 1.09%
    Raleigh 7 12 1,423 9 2 0.63%
  The Protégé Total   18 29 3,763 33 4 0.88%
T-4 Paw Patrol (Friday) Jacksonville 3 16 1,793 86 32 4.80%
    Phoenix 6 17 2,698 57 10 2.11%
    Raleigh 3 15 1,331 118 8 8.87%
  Paw Patrol (Friday) Total   12 48 5,822 261 50 4.48%
  Reminiscence (Friday) Jacksonville 5 18 2,646 8 0 0.30%
    Phoenix 6 21 2,824 8 2 0.28%
    Raleigh 7 27 3,637 8 0 0.22%
  Reminiscence (Friday) Total   18 66 9,107 24 2 0.26%

 

Tracking fell back a bit yesterday for Paw Patrol, dropping to around 5m (Space Jam 5.4m and Boss Baby 4.7m).  Reminiscence is three tickets ahead of Stillwater's preview at this point.  The Protégé is trailing HWB 45-33 at T-3, although those previews were on Tuesday.  Night House is behind everything except Joe Bell at this point - not expecting much for it.

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
T-2 The Night House Jacksonville 5 8 811 5 1 0.62%
    Phoenix 5 8 878 10 5 1.14%
    Raleigh 6 12 1,246 9 0 0.72%
  The Night House Total   16 28 2,935 24 6 0.82%
  The Protégé Jacksonville 5 8 970 14 5 1.44%
    Phoenix 6 9 1,370 20 5 1.46%
    Raleigh 7 12 1,423 13 4 0.91%
  The Protégé Total   18 29 3,763 47 14 1.25%
T-3 Paw Patrol (Friday) Jacksonville 3 16 1,793 99 13 5.52%
    Phoenix 6 17 2,698 106 49 3.93%
    Raleigh 3 18 1,581 216 98 13.66%
  Paw Patrol (Friday) Total   12 51 6,072 421 160 6.93%
  Reminiscence (Friday) Jacksonville 5 18 2,646 12 4 0.45%
    Phoenix 6 17 2,528 10 2 0.40%
    Raleigh 7 28 3,728 15 7 0.40%
  Reminiscence (Friday) Total   18 63 8,902 37 13 0.42%

 

Apologies for the delay. On vacation this week and had to catch a ferry this morning.  I was able to pull all of these but decided to start looking at Shang Chi instead of posting in my last few minutes before leaving.  Paw Patrol had another good day, moving tracking back to 5.52m for OD (Space Jam 5.53 & Boss Baby 5.52).  Protégé is still trailing HWB previews 55-47 but pulled a little closer.  

 

While I didn't have time to finish Shang-Chi, I was able to pull all of the Raleigh shows.

 

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
T-16 Shang-Chi Raleigh 7 26 3,317 175 175 5.28%

 

For T-16 Raleigh comps, F9 had sold 156, Black Widow had 690 and TSS had 93.  Black Widow had 222 in its first day, but that was T-27.  Tomorrow I'll be able to do comps for all three cities.

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So, 2nd Cinemark set (Regals still haven't - has there been word about a last second Paw deal?:)

 

Paw Patrol gained 3 showings (12, 2, 4) to end up at 7 showings...unlike the other Cinemark, it did get a 250 seater and a 100 seater, so more seats available, although not as many as if it got both the 2 biggest screens...

 

All other openers unchanged on single screens, with The Night House going unbooked (guess that explains the extra prime showing at the other Cinemark)...

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