The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Krissykins]

Have to laugh at Entertainment Weekly saying “marvel has another hit on its hands” just after they continuously put out negative headlines about the performance of Black Widow. Maybe this is doomed if it falls under $80.4m OW. 

Edited August 17, 2021 by Krissykins

[keysersoze123]

While Shang Chi is doing well dont forget its well behind the pace of BW at equivalent point( half of MTC1 and 1/3 of MTC2). So it has to accelerate at much faster pace to come close. PS will slow down quite a bit after first 2-3 days for most movies. I dont see any scenario where this comes close BW in OW. Some of the numbers thrown around are way too optimistic. These reviews will have little impact considering MCU movies are generally well reviewed. Plus this could do not so great in smaller states considering cast are Chinese. There are folks still talking about "Wuhan Virus" and making the commies pay. So its not going to play as wide as usual movies. Plus looking at early PS skew, its going to be frontloaded like BW was during its OW. Fans will come in but GA will still stay out considering Delta is even bigger factor than during BW release time. Plus 45 day window is not that long unless you are rabid fan(I will wait for it to hit D+ for sure). 

 

That said we should also kill any doom talk. its not another Suicide Squad(MCU is not a super strong footing unlike DCEU). Plus AT&T strategy for 2021 is retarded. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

The 70-80m talk was excessive. Shang-Chi just needs to beat expectations/tracking which it should. 40+ 3day is “good enough”, anything more like 50+ will be gravy. 

[Legion Again]

70 isn’t where the bar for success should be by any means, but it’s hardly “excessive” either, just need like 8-9M previews or so. Compare to 7.1 for F9 and 13.2 for BW (with PA) or e.g. 9.4 for Doctor Strange way back in 2016. Delta isn’t a nonfactor but in the 4 most delta affected weekends (Jul 30, Aug 6, Aug 13, Aug 20) we will have basically 3 pleasant over performers and only one massive disappoint. 

Edited August 18, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Lokis Legion said:

70 isn’t where the bar for success should be by any means, but it’s hardly “excessive” either, just need like 8M previews or so. Compare to 7.1 for F9 and 13.2 for BW (with PA) or e.g. 9.4 for Doctor Strange way back in 2016. Delta isn’t a nonfactor but in the 4 most delta affected weekends (Jul 30, Aug 6, Aug 13, Aug 20) we will have basically 3 pleasant over performers and only one massive disappoint. 

I disagree. bigger the movie, delta becomes a bigger factor. People will avoid over crowding and things are not going to get better in next 2 weeks for sure. The core audience for MCU minus the fans are the families and they will be the ones to stay away. I bet its Preview to OW multi will be close to BW than previous MCU movies. 

 

Anyway I hope I am wrong but its better to have reasonable expectations. This aint coming close to BW. Not in this environment.  Hopefully Eternals reverses the trend and has bigger OW than BW and I am sure Spidey will comfortably have the biggest OW for the year. 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I bet its Preview to OW multi will be close to BW than previous MCU movies. 

BW wasn't all that afar from other MCU summer movies just that SAT film dropped due to being on D+. Generally MCU July films get 5% growth, BW dropped 10%.

 

Shang Chi is releasing in Sep. SAT growth should be 25-30% Approx in normalcy but let's be a bit conservative and say 15% growth. So we have

7.5 Previews
16 (Previews being 32% of full OD)
18.5 (+15%)
16 (-15% Labor Day) // 58 (7.75x)

10 (-35%)

 

If it get 8M Previews, 60-65 is very likely. 

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

bigger the movie, delta becomes a bigger factor.

We don’t have any evidence for this

 

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

People will avoid over crowding and things are not going to get better in next 2 weeks for sure. 

In fact, things are going to get better in the next two weeks for sure

 

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

families and they will be the ones to stay away.

Literally we are seeing over and over again that this is not true. The 3 delta overperformers are all family driven to varying degrees.

 

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I bet its Preview to OW multi will be close to BW than previous MCU movies.

Clearly you aren’t thinking very critically about why BW’s IM was what it was if you believe this.

 

Anyway, I agree it is better to have reasonable expectation, which is why people should realize that it could get pretty close to BW — though not to what BW would have done as an exclusive release.

 

 

Edited August 18, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[charlie Jatinder]

7 hours ago, el sid said:

TSS had 19 days before its previews in 7 theaters 585 sold tickets, means at the moment 1.85xTSS = ca. 48.5M OW

Weekend trend in September with Sunday holiday is gonna be a lot different, so better practice will be to get THU and use 7.75-8.25x internal multi.

 

1.85x TSS will mean 7.6M previews. That's a bit low than it should be but let's see how that comp go.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

We don’t have any evidence for this

I can agree to what Keyser said that Delta will be bigger factor for bigger movie as they need more audience but 60M isn't exactly a crowded weekend. 60M will be on average 25% occupancy for weekend.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

36 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

While Shang Chi is doing well dont forget its well behind the pace of BW at equivalent point( half of MTC1 and 1/3 of MTC2)

Are you referring to T-17 day comp?

 

I don't think T-X days comp is gonna matter till T-10 days atleast. For next few days, gotta use the first X days comp.

 

If you wanna use T-X days comp , well its gonna increase every day because by then BW was in down phase of sales while SC will have relatively higher down phase due to smaller PS run + first few days of sales are better than mid part of the run.

[charlie Jatinder]

From a sample of Harkins shows seems like good day two. +40% day 1 in those I checked.

[Legion Again]

20 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I can agree to what Keyser said that Delta will be bigger factor for bigger movie as they need more audience but 60M isn't exactly a crowded weekend. 60M will be on average 25% occupancy for weekend.

 

Well, I mean, yes. If it was targeted 200M or something then I agree it’s only logical that high occupancies would start to run up against delta fears nonlinearly.    
 

But especially given how dead the market will be for holdovers, should be able to grab a pretty high screens/loc, very high loc count, etc. So don’t even have to go that much above, say, Jungle Cruise True FSS screen occupancy to hit 60-80ish range

Edited August 18, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[ThomasNicole]

I do think 70-80M is excessive all things considered.

 

But +50M is completely reasonable, and that's more than enough.

 

I can easily see this opening with around 56M and still come very close to BW total, lack of any major competition will make the magic.

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

From a sample of Harkins shows seems like good day two. +40% day 1 in those I checked.

 

 

In line with the 42% jump at my NYC local

[charlie Jatinder]

I was thinking that TSS might not be that bad a comp. Its a fan driven CBM with single digit previews and the general expectation of this thread is 7-8 I suppose, not 14M of BW (adj for ON).

 

Though IIRC, TSS was under indexing for most of our regional trackers.

Edited August 18, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Madhuvan]

@charlie Jatinder your tweet about Shang-Chi presales figure and OW projection is everywhere on reddit on twitter. Congrats 

[Eric Atreides]

On 8/16/2021 at 11:04 PM, Free Eric said:

The Night House Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	17	28	1799	1.56%

 

Comp

0.424x of The Forever Purge T-3 (564K)

0.298x of Escape Room 2 T-3 (357K)

The Night House Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	20	40	2302	1.74%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 12

 

Comp

0.435x of The Forever Purge T-2 (578K)

0.276x of Escape Room 2 T-2 (331K)

0.210x of Old T-2 (316K)

[Eric Atreides]

On 8/16/2021 at 11:06 PM, Free Eric said:

The Protege Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	16	31	2372	1.31%

 

Comp

0.187x of Snake Eyes T-3 (261K)

The Protege Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	20	29	2675	1.08%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 4

Total Seats Added Today: 303

Total Seats LOST Today: 2

 

Comp

0.143x of Snake Eyes T-2 (200K)

0.130x of Free Guy T-2 (286K)

 

No your eyes do not decieve you. Poor Martin Campbell

[Eric Atreides]

On 8/16/2021 at 11:11 PM, Free Eric said:

PAW Patrol: The Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	521	4015	12.93%

 

Comp

4.135x of Raya's Thu+Fri Monday Before Release (10.76M)

2.894x of Spirit Untamed's Thu+Fri Monday Before Release (7.11M)

3.158x of Boss Baby 2's Thu Monday Before Release (4.14M)

PAW Patrol: The Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	51	668	7826	8.54%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 18

Total Seats Added Today: 3,811

Total Seats Sold Today: 147

 

Comp

2.055x of Raya's Thu+Fri Tuesday Before Release (5.35M)

3.227x of Spirit Untamed's Thu+Fri Tuesday Before Release (7.93M)

3.732x of Boss Baby 2's Thu Tuesday Before Release (4.89M)

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I’m obviously not surprised by Protege. I never expected good presales. But it did feel like one of those random mindless action knockoffs that do.. decent and better than expected. I saw a Facebook ad promoting it as “Batman meets Nick Fury”