The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

About 8 people (9 including me) for the 7pm Cinemark Night House. 4 for the 945pm

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Friday tracking for Paw Patrol (the other releases aren't worth it)

 

Paw Patrol

Cinemark: (58)

1:10 (20), 210 (8), 350 (17), 445 (3), 630 (10), 910 (0)

AMC: (43)

3 (16), 445 (9), 530 (9), 735 (9)

 

No idea why my AMC is opening late. Maybe because low sales and summer is ending, I don't know. 

 

Edited August 20, 2021 by BestPicturePlutoNash

[Borobudur]

20 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

About 8 people (9 including me) for the 7pm Cinemark Night House. 4 for the 945pm

Only Paw has the Thursday night preview?

[charlie Jatinder]

One of the CA Harkins doubled last night number for Paw Patrol. Other in Phoenix went +45%, already selling 39% of seats available. The evening shows are 55%. Need more shows here.

 

[SpiderByte]

5 hours ago, Lokis Legion said:

Man I know that comps this early are pretty “take it with a grain of salt”, but I’m not sure if people have processed that 10M is like O/U BW 3-day O/U 100M 4day kind of numbers.

It's definitely looking like a possibility. It's definitely claiminf the labor day record for the forseeable future though.

[Eric Atreides]

13 hours ago, Free Eric said:

PAW Patrol: The Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	51	996	7826	12.73%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 328

 

Comp

2.311x of Raya's Thu+Fri Wednesday Before Release (6.01M)

3.388x of Spirit Untamed's Thu+Fri Wednesday Before Release (8.33M)

3.703x of Boss Baby 2's Thu Wednesday Before Release (4.85M)

PAW Patrol: The Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	54	1515	8336	18.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 519

 

Comp

2.533x of Raya's Thu+Fri (6.59M)

3.499x of Spirit Untamed's Thu+Fri (8.6M)

1.983x of Boss Baby 2 (2.6M)

 

Take out Boss Baby and you have some good numbers here. I'll just assume looking at other folks' ticket sales that the former two are more likely.

[Eric Atreides]

14 hours ago, Free Eric said:

Reminiscence Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	71	32	9569	0.33%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 8

 

Comp

0.653x of Voyagers Wednesday Before Release (338K)

Reminiscence Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	71	55	9569	0.57%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 23

 

Comp

0.753x of Voyagers (391K)

[Eric Atreides]

13 hours ago, Free Eric said:

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	54	829	10896	7.61%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 123

 

Comp

1.181x of F9 T-15 (8.38M)

0.784x of Black Widow's First Three Days of Presales (10.35M)

0.469x of Black Widow T-15 (6.19M)

3.329x of The Suicide Squad T-15 (13.65M)

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	54	887	10896	8.14%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 58

 

Comp

0.479x of Black Widow T-14 (6.33M)

3.373x of The Suicide Squad T-14 (13.83M)

 

I didn't track F9 on T-14, so I'm skipping that, but it'll return tomorrow. I'm also ditching the "First X Days" stuff for Black Widow, as it'll get things more convoluted.

 

Either way, the big fan rush has finally died down, but both current comps should continue to rise, as Shang-Chi closes the gap and because TSS really sold poorly up until the reviews dropped later on in its sales cycle.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 8/19/2021 at 9:40 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

Paw Patrol Harkins California T-1 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	33	7,021	362	5.16%	$3,514	$9.71
Total	33	7,021	362	5.16%	$3,514	$9.71

 

These are solid numbers. Shows post 15:00 are 268/2993 with one day of pre-sales to go. At same time, Jungle Cruise had only 245 (123 Normal) seats sold for THU previews while Free Guy was just 53. 

I also tracked 3 Phoenix theaters and 1 Colorado. Going forward will use the sample of these 8 theaters.

 

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	59	10,767	725	6.73%	$6,663	$9.19
Total	59	10,767	725	6.73%	$6,663	$9.19

 

Phoenix is again selling better than CA. Based of these theaters, I estimate $12-13K pre-sales in Harkins. THU ain't proper comp for a FRI, but feels like it can hit $23K in Harkins California & $100-105K whole chain on Friday. I don't know for sure what FRI ratio of Harkins would be but just by seeing the sell rate I think it will be very unlikely to miss $5M OD.

Paw Patrol Harkins California Final Pre-sales

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	33	7,021	698	9.94%	$6,746	$9.66
Total	33	7,021	698	9.94%	$6,746	$9.66

 

Incredible numbers. Almost doubled from yesterday. It will be tough for me to track but I think CA can do 2.25-2.5K ($21-24K) which will be round about what TSS did for its previews, though with 500-800 less seats sold.

 

The Harkins' 8 Theaters

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	59	10,995	1,268	11.53%	$11,685	$9.22
Total	11	10,995	1,268	11.53%	$11,685	$9.22

 

Nothing more to add, same as yesterday. 

[charlie Jatinder]

@Inceptionzq if you got time, can you do Megaplex Paw Patrol tomorrow morning.

[Inceptionzq]

11 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@Inceptionzq if you got time, can you do Megaplex Paw Patrol tomorrow morning.

Yeah I should have time

[charlie Jatinder]

On 8/19/2021 at 11:55 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

Shang Chi Harkins T-15 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	84	24,319	282	1.16%	$3,318	$11.77
Cine 1	16	4,818	391	8.12%	$6,119	$15.65
Cine Capri	4	1,782	32	1.80%	$456	$14.25
IMAX	2	890	69	7.75%	$1,035	$15.00
Total	106	31,809	774	2.43%	$10,928	$14.12

 

Sold another 100 seats today. Black Widow in its first 4 days had sold 1700 seats. Shang Chi will may be hit 50% of that. Though the target I am setting is to hit 2K one week from now, when BW had 4.1K sold.

 

Separately in CA, it has sold 367 so far. T-7 days will when I will have comp with TSS and BW. Will be hoping for 650 range atleast there.

 

Shang Chi Harkins T-14 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	86	25,165	328	1.30%	$3,879	$11.83
Cine 1	16	4,818	459	9.53%	$7,184	$15.65
Cine Capri	4	1,782	32	1.80%	$456	$14.25
IMAX	2	890	93	10.45%	$1,395	$15.00
Total	108	32,655	912	2.79%	$12,914	$14.16

 

Another solid day of above 100, selling 138 seats. This feel weirdly strong day, most likely tomorrow we will have some drop.

 

Comps

53.6% of Black Widow first 4 days of sales - $7.5M

223% of The Suicide Squad T-7 days in CA - $9.15M*

 

Harkins

 

California Harkins

Edited August 20, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

On 8/18/2021 at 10:44 PM, Porthos said:

 

Shang-Chi and the Legends of the Ten Rings 

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	101	16156	17002	846	4.98%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	512
Total Seats Sold Today	120

 

Day Three Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold Day Three	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	53.60		185	1498		0/104	16688/18186	8.24%		7.41m
SC (adj)	----		101	803		0/89	14152/14955	5.37%		----

COMP NOTE: BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: SC (adj) Is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

 

===

 

All wings theaters have now reported in.  Keeping pace, more or less, at 53% of BW at the same time.

 

Tomorrow, I'll provide both a Day 4 comp and a T-14 comp, and starting Friday it'll be T-x only.

 

For @charlie Jatinder:

 

Regal: 140/4469 [3.04% sold]

 

 

Shang-Chi and the Legends of the Ten Rings 

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	101	16035	17002	967	5.69%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

121

 

Day Four Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold Day Four	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	56.71		105	1603		0/104	16583/18186	8.81%		7.84m
SC (adj)	----		106	909		0/89	14046/14955	6.08%		----

COMP NOTE: BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: SC (adj) Is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

 

T-14 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	36.55		106	2487		0/117	16647/19134	13.00%		5.05m
SC (adj)	----		106	909		0/89	14046/14955	6.08%		----

COMP NOTE: BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: SC (adj) Is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: Black Widow has ten more days of pre-sales than Shang-Chi at this point in its track.

 

===

 

Very strong day for Shang-Chi locally.  Not much else to add aside from that.

 

As said yesterday, as of tomorrow, it'll be exclusively T-x comps.

 

For @charlie Jatinder:   Regal: 159/4469 [3.45% sold] [+19 tickets]

[Madhuvan]

@Porthos can you add TSS comp back again from tomorrow if possible. Just wanted to see the daily trajectory. Thanks.

[Porthos]

27 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

@Porthos can you add TSS comp back again from tomorrow if possible. Just wanted to see the daily trajectory. Thanks.

 

It really isn't worth it as an official comp, IMO, due to the wildly disparate pre-sale patterns. Not even as an 'upper bound'. 

 

Like, TSS sold 18 tickets on its Day 4 and 7 tickets on its T-14 day.

 

But just to satisfy your curiosity:

 

TSS comp [Day 3]: 14.74m

TSS comp [Day 4]: 15.68m

---

TSS comp [T-14]:  12.54m 

[TSS had five more days of pre-sales than SC]

 

I can see roping in a TSS comp starting around T-4 or so, and I'm planning on bringing it online then if it looks right.  But now?  I just don't see the value, personally.

[Krissykins]

10 hours ago, Lokis Legion said:

Man I know that comps this early are pretty “take it with a grain of salt”, but I’m not sure if people have processed that 10M is like O/U BW 3-day O/U 100M 4day kind of numbers.

A $100m 4 day opening on Labor Day weekend would be fantastic. 

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

A $100m 4 day opening on Labor Day weekend would be fantastic. 

On the one hand, I don’t want to get people overhyped and disappointed with an objectively-great-but-lower-than-my-dreams kind of number.   
 

On the other hand… watch out for the club section in an hour or two 👀

[charlie Jatinder]

On 7/6/2021 at 6:54 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Black Widow Cineplex T-3 Days

 

Montreal + Quebec City - 1964 (9)

Calgary - 1235 (8)

Edmonton - 1307 (6)

Vancouver + (Victoria, Surrey, etc.) - 3898 (13/15)

New Brunswick State - 431 (5)

Newfoundland State - 270 (2)

Nova Scotia - 538 (11/12)

Prince Edward Island - 100 (2)

Saskatchewan - 387 (6)

 

Total - 10,130 (62/65) ~$126K

Shang Chi Cineplex T-14 Days

 

Calgary - 342 (8)

Edmonton - 350 (6)

Vancouver + Victoria, Surrey, etc - 1525 (17)

Total - 2217 (31)

 

The BW numbers are 5 days of sales vs 4 days of Shang Chi but BW was just 3 days away from release, so. About 34% of BW, with 2 weeks of sales to go. Quite solid IMO.

 

cc @DAJK

Edited August 20, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[efialtes76]

SC won't make 100M in 4 days.

Stop with the nonsense.

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, Lokis Legion said:

On the one hand, I don’t want to get people overhyped and disappointed with an objectively-great-but-lower-than-my-dreams kind of number.   
 

On the other hand… watch out for the club section in an hour or two 👀

Yeh I don’t think a $10m preview number for a Marvel film would point to $80m+ either, look at Black Widow’s multiplier. 
 

Mind you, Shang Chi has the added benefit of a holiday weekend, no streaming option, no piracy, no recent delays and it’s a new MCU film, not a prequel.