The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

11 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Yeah I was hoping yesterday marked the end of stagnation for Friday. Hopefully it'll really pick up soon because Black Widow only had one day below 230 from here on out.

I do feel that it's underperforming at Megaplex though. Near as I can figure, using my numbers (which are lower than Keyser's, hence why I have not posted in the past two days despite being back from vacation) the Friday BW comp is 12.36 million and has been improving steadily. And at MTC1 the comp should be much better since its overperforming in big markets. 

[keysersoze123]

18 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Just in case you’re still wondering about the pace, 63% of BW for the rest of the run would end up at 7.42M.

That would be inline with my predictions of 7-8m previews. 

 

BTW is the megaplex all in one location or spread out across the country. 

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

That would be inline with my predictions of 7-8m previews. 

 

BTW is the megaplex all in one location or spread out across the country. 

Utah with a little Nevada, quite regional. They often overindex for MCU but I think what we’re seeing is that they did for BW more than SC, at least in early PS. @Inceptionzq, do you have an F9 comp for shits and giggles or not tracking mega yet for that run? I expect it will be closer to geomean of BW and F9 than to the straight BW comps.

Edited August 25, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[Legion Again]

Definitely seems to be underperforming the BW comp at mega Plex for now. If that finish 7.4 I’d expect 8.5+ National and guessing mega finish is actually more like low 8. As always, last few days crucial etc.

[keysersoze123]

14 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Utah with a little Nevada, quite regional. They often overindex for MCU but I think what we’re seeing is that they did for BW more than SC, at least in early PS. @Inceptionzq, do you have an F9 comp for shits and giggles or not tracking mega yet for that run? I expect it will be closer to geomean of BW and F9 than to the straight BW comps.

No way. F9 was over indexed in smaller markets. MTC1 actually underperformed. This would lot closer to BW than F9. Superhero movies tend to play stronger in big markets and Shang Chi does not have the star power anyway. 

 

For example previews wise F9 did 140K/133K in MTC1/2 while BW did 247K/195K. Shang Chi would be even more skewed towards MTC1 than BW looking at PS so far. 

Edited August 25, 2021 by keysersoze123

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

No way. F9 was over indexed in smaller markets. MTC1 actually underperformed. This would lot closer to BW than F9. Superhero movies tend to play stronger in big markets and Shang Chi does not have the star power anyway. 

Well, we’ll just have to see how it develops. Both comps have evolved quite as I expected the last 7days, but that doesn’t guarantee anything for the next 7.   
 

To be clear though I was talking about the national level T-8:final multiplier, not sure why you’re talking MTC1 ratio unless you’re implying a strong correlation between the two.

Edited August 26, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

It did not even open to 40m OD. !!!!

It had 4.25M+ admits which on a normal Friday & THU would have meant $50M+ OD.

 

FFH in normalcy would have opened $140-150M IMO. NWH will $170-200M.

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Well, we’ll just have to see how it develops. Both comps have evolved quite as I expected the last 7days, but that doesn’t guarantee anything for the next 7.   
 

To be clear though I was talking about the national level T-8:final multiplier, not sure why you’re talking MTC1 ratio unless you’re implying a strong correlation between the two.

I doubt a MCU movie will come close to F9 when it comes to walkups. Audience base is different. I can tell even from past 2 days MTC1 about 2x MTC2 in sales. Only recent comparison is Suicide Squad. Last day walkups will be better in MTC2 but overall number will be skewed. 

 

I will say one way F9 is a better comparison is that it was pure theatrical release. Let us see how that plays out. of course with Delta running rampant, F9 release date seems like a distant past. Other good thing in Shang Chi's favor relative to BW is stronger reviews. Let us see if that helps. 

 

 

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

It had 4.25M+ admits which on a normal Friday & THU would have meant $50M+ OD.

 

FFH in normalcy would have opened $140-150M IMO. NWH will $170-200M.

Wouldn't  a late december release also mean the audience would be spread out. Especially if COVID being a factor and audience avoiding crowded theaters. I am skeptical about that big a OW this year. Let us see how things go. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

19 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

No way. F9 was over indexed in smaller markets. MTC1 actually underperformed. This would lot closer to BW than F9. Superhero movies tend to play stronger in big markets and Shang Chi does not have the star power anyway. 

 

For example previews wise F9 did 140K/133K in MTC1/2 while BW did 247K/195K. Shang Chi would be even more skewed towards MTC1 than BW looking at PS so far. 

But since overall PS is smaller than BW, late bumps may be in between F9 and BW rather than close to BW. Not because of market ratio but just when overall PS is smaller it's easier to have better late bumps. Of course F9 is a more walkup based movie but SC should fare better with late bumps and walkups than BW did. 

Edited August 26, 2021 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

Wouldn't  a late december release also mean the audience would be spread out. Especially if COVID being a factor and audience avoiding crowded theaters. I am skeptical about that big a OW this year. Let us see how things go. 

Yes and that's why I am saying $170M and not $200M+.

 

I was reading some report BO.com, about 80% people don't care about CoVID. CoVID is showing 0 impact on box office so far. Anyhow I am not too "pushy" on S-M:NWH yet, so like whatever but shouldn't have much issue beating TROS.

[Legion Again]

Yeah, I mean, there is a reason I said “I think geomean comp will perform better than pure BW” and not “a straight F9 comp is a good idea.” To be closer to geomean than pure BW, only needs to beat geomean(BW, BW, BW, F9). It’s a pretty modest claim tbh.

Edited August 26, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[charlie Jatinder]

Re Megaplex, yes they are very preview heavy (just 15 theaters could be 1% of Nationwide) but still a very regional chain.

 

Anyways if the T-x days comp are saying 6-7.5M for BW, that is no reason to worry anywhere because those will bw increasing with each passing day.

 

BW had just 1.5x PSm for THU. I expect Shang Chi to make some improvement and be 1.75-1.8x there itself. 

[Inceptionzq]

46 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Utah with a little Nevada, quite regional. They often overindex for MCU but I think what we’re seeing is that they did for BW more than SC, at least in early PS. @Inceptionzq, do you have an F9 comp for shits and giggles or not tracking mega yet for that run? I expect it will be closer to geomean of BW and F9 than to the straight BW comps.

It's really just Utah, the Nevada theater sells nothing. 12 sold for BW Thursday final, and 24 for BW Friday final. But it is in Mesquite, so I can't say I'm that surprised

 

I have F9 comps starting tomorrow, but I didn't have time for the last 2 days so it's incomplete. The Thursday comp tomorrow will be over 12M, and the Friday comp will be around 22M. Definitely shows what you've been thinking about SC not overindexing as much as BW. And I'll add that my knowledge of Megaplex overindexing is only from really big movies like the Dec SW movies, Avengers, Frozen 2, etc. I have no idea how much it overindexes for smaller movies from popular brands.

Edited August 26, 2021 by Inceptionzq

[Legion Again]

So geomean will likely be 8.5 ballpark (say 5.7 from BW and 12.5 from F9). Not too far from the pace based extrapolation. Gun to my head I would choose a 2:1 weighted mix of BW and F9 (would yield 7.4 from above, so identical to today’s pace extrapolation).

Edited August 26, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[Cmasterclay]

Not to interrupt the Shang Chi but does anyone have updated Candyman numbers? I don't track but from a quick look around its doing good but not great in normal showings but nearly sold out in all the Dolby showings.

[Ledmonkey96]

SC doing worse than BW on Thur/Fri morn makes sense what with school being back in, Saturday is the real question

[Legion Again]

18 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Not to interrupt the Shang Chi but does anyone have updated Candyman numbers? I don't track but from a quick look around its doing good but not great in normal showings but nearly sold out in all the Dolby showings.

Looking like 2-3 from katniss depending on which comps it follows, Eric should be in in a few hours with how it’s doing in philly but likely same ballpark. 

[Eric Atreides]

19 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Not to interrupt the Shang Chi but does anyone have updated Candyman numbers? I don't track but from a quick look around its doing good but not great in normal showings but nearly sold out in all the Dolby showings.

Wait like 90 minutes or something  

[Rorschach]

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX - Wednesday Night Outlook

 

Candyman

Thursday:

7:00 P.M.: 22/238

9:35 P.M.: 7/238

Total Sold: 29/476 (6.09% sold)

 

Comps:

2.64x Old: $3.95 mil

2.07x Don’t Breathe 2: $2 mil

Avg: $2.96 mil

 

Friday:

12:00 P.M.: 1/238

1:05 P.M.: 0/94

2:35 P.M.: 0/238

3:45 P.M.: 0/94

5:10 P.M.: 7/238

6:25 P.M.: 7/94

7:45 P.M.: 15/238

9:05 P.M.: 2/94

10:20 P.M.: 6/238

Total Sold: 38/1,566 (2.43% sold)

 

Thurs + Fri: 67/2,042 (3.28% sold)

 

Comps: 

1.81x Old: $12.5 mil

1.63x Don’t Breathe 2: $7.18 mil

Avg: $9.84 mil

 

I figured the comps for this would be kind of wonky, given how all over the place some of the other horror these past few months have been – at least at my theater, anyways. However, the fact that its outpacing these films by a lot is quite promising. Definitely predicting high 2s, maybe low 3s for Thursday previews. 

Edited August 26, 2021 by Rorschach