The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric Robitaille said:

Candyman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	35	384	6806	5.64%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 11

Total Seats Added Today: 2,237

Total Seats Sold Today: 148

 

Comp

0.684x of Spiral Thu+Fri T-2 (2.55M)

0.234x of Space Jam 2 Fri 2 Days Before Release (3.07M)

 

It's always kinda wonky tracking films like Candyman because they overindex here in Philly, but looking elsewhere...this is looking like a breakout. Color me impressed.

Candyman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	601	6871	8.75%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 65

Total Seats Sold Today: 217

 

Comp

0.772x of Spiral Thu+Fri T-1 (2.88M)

0.227x of Space Jam 2 Fri 1 Day Before Release (2.98M)

 

@Cmasterclay Black-led movies overindex in Philly for obvious reasons, which means it's usually unfair to compare Candyman to other horror titles like Old or something. However, Spiral is actually a decent comp here and things are pointing towards a positive direction amongst other trackers. I still don't want to go 2.9M like this is saying, but 2M previews should be the minumum and 2.5M+ is on the outside looking in IMHO.

 

Either way, the film is looking more and more like a breakout, at least in the COVID perspective

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric Robitaille said:

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	60	1319	11464	11.51%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 3

Total Seats Added Today: 225

Total Seats Sold Today: 137

 

Comp

1.409x of F9 T-9 (10M)

0.556x of Black Widow T-9 (7.34M)

3.937x of The Suicide Squad T-9 (16.14M)

 

Might be overselling this, but this was a really good day, considering this was a day after reviews dropped (though the afterglow would obviously still be there) and the Widow comp still saw a solid increase, despite T-9 being Widow's review day. And yeah I know both had different sales patterns, but I think there's a lot to commend here IMO

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	60	1409	11464	12.29%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 90

 

Comp

1.406x of F9 T-8 (9.98M)

0.561x of Black Widow T-8 (7.41M)

3.669x of The Suicide Squad T-8 (15.04M)

[Borobudur]

Candyman breakout certainly bode well for SC overperformance. Hope the market don't suddenly feel overcrowded 

[charlie Jatinder]

Candyman $2.75M previews should give $25M+. Another solid weekend. The trailers were solid so not surprised, in fact was expecting more pre-CoVID.

 

Let's see if we get MTC numbers.

Edited August 26, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

CINEMARK: (25)

7XD (9)

730 (14), 8 (2)

 

AMC: (80)

7pm DOLBY (73)

8pm (7)

 

Candyman on Thursday

[Cmasterclay]

3 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

CINEMARK: (25)

7XD (9)

730 (14), 8 (2)

 

AMC: (80)

7pm DOLBY (73)

8pm (7)

 

Candyman on Thursday

How does this compare to Old?

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

How does this compare to Old?

I unfortunately do not have the comps for Thursday. But I do remember presales being weak and being surprised my 7pmXD had about 20 people. Walkups were really strong

 

I tracked Old's Friday presales on Thursday night

CINEMARK:

Old- 29 tickets across 5 shows

Candyman-25 tickets across 9 shows

 

AMC:

Old- 45 tickets to 2 Dolby shows/15 additional tickets

Candyman- 53 tickets to 2 Dolby shows/18 additional tickets

 

So Candyman has already beaten Old a day early in my tracking

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Shang-Chi and the Legends of the Ten Rings 

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	108	15995	17487	1492	8.53%

 

Total Showings Added Today	7*
Total Seats Added Today	485
Total Seats Sold Today	122

* Includes two showings from non-reserved seating theaters.

 

T-9 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	45.37		171	3079		0/122	16185/19264	15.98%		6.27m
SC (adj)	----		104	1397		096	14043/15440	9.05%		----

COMP NOTE: BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: SC (adj) Is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: Black Widow has ten more days of pre-sales than Shang-Chi at this point in its track.

 

Regal: 286/4609 [6.12% sold] [+18 tickets]

 

Shang-Chi and the Legends of the Ten Rings 

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	108	15846	17487	1641	9.38%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

149

 

T-8 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	46.07		204	3473		0/151	19486/22959	15.13%		6.37m
SC (adj)	----		135	1600		0/102	15152/16752	9.55%		----

COMP NOTE: BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: SC (adj) Is the amount of seats sold that does not include a theater which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: Black Widow has ten more days of pre-sales than Shang-Chi at this point in its track.

 

Regal: 330/4674 [7.06% sold] [+44 tickets]

 

===

 

Two theaters were re-integrated into the count at this point in BW's track, but barely moved the needle.  Last one comes in tomorrow.

 

Aside from that, Shang-Chi keeps on keeping on.  Was bigger than yesterday, which is a good sign for it going forward.

[charlie Jatinder]

14 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Shang Chi Harkins T-9 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	134	36,186	655	1.81%	$7,689	$11.74
Cine 1	16	4,818	834	17.31%	$12,945	$15.52
Cine Capri	4	1,782	79	4.43%	$1,161	$14.70
IMAX	2	890	129	14.49%	$1,935	$15.00
Total	156	43,676	1,697	3.89%	$23,730	$13.98

 

Sold 307 seats in existing 108 shows and another 28 seats in 48 new shows. Massive day after review bump which I expected, as good reviews are more likely to help this than Black Widow.

 

BW had $51K gross at T-7 days, If we manage one more 200+ day today , can easily be 2K plus on T-7 Days, for a gross of $28K+, which will put it in place to target that $10M equivalent gross in the chain.

 

Of course its a small regional chain so not really representative of National numbers, but it is what it is.

Shang Chi Harkins T-8 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	149	39,534	754	1.91%	$8,861	$11.75
Cine 1	16	4,818	892	18.51%	$13,808	$15.48
Cine Capri	4	1,782	81	4.55%	$1,191	$14.70
IMAX	2	890	134	15.06%	$2,010	$15.00
Total	171	47,024	1,861	3.96%	$25,870	$13.90

 

Quite decent day of 167 seats. If I had taken yesterday at normal time, perhaps could have been 180-200 day after a 300-310 day. It shall cross the 2K target I had set for T-7 days. Good pace so far.

[Krissykins]

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

 

I was reading some report BO.com, about 80% people don't care about CoVID. CoVID is showing 0 impact on box office so far.

I’m assuming you mean solely for Spider-Man? Because having a look at the top 10 of the year shows a severe impact from covid. Our #10 film has grossed $140m worldwide. 

[charlie Jatinder]

28 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I’m assuming you mean solely for Spider-Man? Because having a look at the top 10 of the year shows a severe impact from covid. Our #10 film has grossed $140m worldwide. 

Naa box office in general in USA. Worldwide ofc there are markets which are entirely or partially closed but as far as box office is concerned, streaming has hurt box office more than CoVID.

[Krissykins]

25 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Naa box office in general in USA. Worldwide ofc there are markets which are entirely or partially closed but as far as box office is concerned, streaming has hurt box office more than CoVID.

You said that covid has shown 0 impact on box office so far, which is just completely false. Even US only.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

You said that covid has shown 0 impact on box office so far, which is just completely false. Even US only.

"so far" I was wrong. better word be "now".

 

I don't think any of the non-streaming movie released post July would have done much/any better in non-CoVID world.

Edited August 26, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I don't think any of the non-streaming movie released post July would have done much/any better in non-CoVID world.

 

You don't think theater closures have mattered?  I don't have the latest numbers but I doubt we're back at full capacity.  Little here and a little there... Well it adds up around the margins.

[charlie Jatinder]

15 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

You don't think theater closures have mattered?  I don't have the latest numbers but I doubt we're back at full capacity.  Little here and a little there... Well it adds up around the margins.

The business of closed theaters move to working ones unless they are only one in that region.

 

The key earning theaters are 2k, rest are small fiddles. The top 10 circuits having just under 2k theaters gross 85% of total box office.

[Legion Again]

We’re not that far from full capacity tbh. I agree with Jat that closures are at a level where they don’t matter much since locations can substitute each other.    

I don’t fully agree that things have been performing at a non covid level (though iirc @ViewerAnon made a pretty similar claim on Twitter a few weeks ago). But it is pretty… interesting, at the very least, how robust the box office has been for the past month. Candyman looking at 25+ probably, quite strong. Free Guy at 28 was quite good, and then at 18.5 was even better. Jungle Cruise at 35M with a same day streaming option that was actively cheaper for families, and then TSS was brutally low but perhaps not really that low considering Birds of Prey at 33M and the even more damaging same day streaming model. 
 

Despite the spiking case numbers we’ve seen movie after movie exceed expectations. 

[charlie Jatinder]

My biggest go to point is F9. F9 grossed $165M in USA. I don't think it would have done much more in normal times. 

Canada is still with seating restrictions and Toronto opened late, so its under indexed at $8M.

[SchumacherFTW]

51 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

My biggest go to point is F9. F9 grossed $165M in USA. I don't think it would have done much more in normal times. 

Canada is still with seating restrictions and Toronto opened late, so its under indexed at $8M.

I wonder if it might have done better than it would have in a non Covid world tbh 

[charlie Jatinder]

52 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

I wonder if it might have done better than it would have in a non Covid world tbh 

Possibly due to lack of competition, run of film is extended.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1	Candyman	Jacksonville	6	14	2,566	102	34	3.98%
		Phoenix	6	16	3,180	95	23	2.99%
		Raleigh	7	17	1,865	97	33	5.20%
	Candyman Total		19	47	7,611	294	90	3.86%
T-8	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	38	5,852	324	34	5.54%
		Phoenix	6	32	5,304	381	35	7.18%
		Raleigh	7	28	3,509	382	42	10.89%
	Shang-Chi Total		19	98	14,665	1,087	111	7.41%

 

Solid day post-reviews for Shang-Chi.   It keeps gaining on the comps at a pretty good pace - starting to see the breakout that others are calling for.  

 

Shang-Chi comps

BW - .415x (5.48m)

F9 - 1.208x (8.57m)

TSS - 3.178x (13.03m)

 

Still trying to figure out the best comp for Candyman.  It fell a little against Old (beating it in sales but at a lower rate) but increased against Forever Purge, making the range even larger.  If it plays like other horror movies released this year, it should be in the high 2s.

 

Candyman comps

Old - 1.455x (2.18m)

FPurge - 2.178x (2.9m)

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-0	Candyman	Jacksonville	6	14	2,566	211	109	8.22%
		Phoenix	6	18	3,274	153	58	4.67%
		Raleigh	7	17	1,865	153	56	8.20%
	Candyman Total		19	49	7,705	517	223	6.71%
T-7	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	42	7,214	360	36	4.99%
		Phoenix	6	34	5,968	408	27	6.84%
		Raleigh	7	29	3,598	401	19	11.15%
	Shang-Chi Total		19	105	16,780	1,169	82	6.97%

 

Awesome day for Candyman - 75% increase in sales.  Not only that, but the sales were pretty well distributed with 37 of the 49 showtimes adding to their totals.  I didn't realize how low expectations were for this (LRF of 9-14 OW as of last week) until after I made my 25m-27m prediction.  Luckily it's kept up the pace and it still looks possible.

 

Candyman comps

Old - 1.576x (2.36m)

FPurge - 2.33x (3.097m)

 

I'd give Shang-Chi a B- for sales yesterday.  Five shows decreased their sales amount and in turn there were fewer new sales than the last two days.  Here are the new sales numbers for the last few days for the comps I'm using:

 

	T-7	T-8	T-9	T-10
Shang-Chi	82	111	117	53
Black Widow	215	166	120	103
F9	65	36	56	63
TSS	54	26	14	8

 

Maybe it's just getting back on track after the reviews bump - just something to follow. 

 

Shang-Chi comps

BW - .4126x (5.446m)

F9 - 1.211x (8.6m)

TSS - 2.95x (12.1m)