The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

FWIW, locally Shang-Chi did about 73% of BW's T-6 business. If it does 70% of BW's business the rest of the way, I get something like 8.6m EDITED LATER: Aksually as of then, it was pointing to about 8.3m, so not much difference.

 

Am worried slightly that it's over-performing in cities (especially West Coast ones), though, as I am seeing something of a city/bedroom community split forming locally.  At least in a couple of spots.

 

Want to see how it does today before drawing any more conclusions though, as the day-to-day relative business has been kinda all over the map, even when accounting for review drops and whatnot.

Edited August 29, 2021 by Porthos
Derp

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

FWIW, locally Shang-Chi did about 73% of BW's T-6 business. If it does 70% of BW's business the rest of the way, I get something like 8.6m.

 

Am worried slightly that it's over-performing in cities (especially West Coast ones), though, as I am seeing something of a city/bedroom community split forming locally.  At least in a couple of spots.

 

Want to see how it does today before drawing any more conclusions though, as the day-to-day relative business has been kinda all over the map, even when accounting for review drops and whatnot.

You bet Sacremento will onver index. I see that with big cities in big states. Smaller markets are doing meh at this point. Look at @Inceptionzq numbers. MTC1/2 ratio also highly skewed(2:1). That tells the story big time. So for SC to hit 9m previews, Sacremento has to look like 10m+. 

 

I definitely see some anti-chinese bias be a factor in small towns. Weird is this is not a slam dunk in China. But they prefer local made movies based on their culture. Crazy Rich Asians(I really enjoyed the movie) did not do well. 

Edited August 28, 2021 by keysersoze123

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

206.8k MTC2 was the full final number I took Friday morning. I also don't see it going quite as high as 9m but BW is a better comp than Captain Marvel as it is only two months old. 

Look at MTC2 ratio for SC vs CM(SC is at tad above 30K this morning). It does not look anywhere near 9m. I bet this will be frontloaded as well as MCU has a huge fanbase. And that is good. That guarantees a floor for these movies. 

[john2000]

we still have 1 week to ago....we will see how it goes

[ThomasNicole]

8M is more than enough for +60M 3-day.

 

It will be great if the final days surprise and previews came around 9M, but i'm very happy that 8M seems more and more likely.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Shang-Chi Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

314

1752

17.92%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

254

1396

18.19%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1338	132	15536	8.61%	15	84

 

AMCs sold	946
Cinemarks sold	156
Regals sold	180
Harkins sold	56

 

Black Widow comp: 7.13M

Fast 9 comp: 12.31M

Suicide Squad comp: 12.14M

 

Just a blip yesterday, it's right back on track.

Shang-Chi Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

332

1786

18.59%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

260

1396

18.62%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1429	91	15536	9.20%	15	84

 

AMCs sold	997
Cinemarks sold	170
Regals sold	203
Harkins sold	59

 

Black Widow comp: 7.12M

Fast 9 comp: 11.98M

 

Hmm maybe it wasn't that much of a blip 2 days ago. I guess if it does end up at 7-8M, then we should expect more days with a flat BW comp, barring an overperformance in Denver. No SS comp today.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Look at MTC2 ratio for SC vs CM(SC is at tad above 30K this morning). It does not look anywhere near 9m. I bet this will be frontloaded as well as MCU has a huge fanbase. And that is good. That guarantees a floor for these movies. 

We will have to wait and see. The final week can change that ratio a lot and the MTC1 over performance will boost the preview number higher than what MTC2 suggests.

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

We will have to wait and see. The final week can change that ratio a lot and the MTC1 over performance will boost the preview number higher than what MTC2 suggests.

MTC1 ratio is about 60% of BW and pace is also in the same ballpark. With MTC1 skewing higher overall previews will be lower than what MTC1 will suggest. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1 ratio is about 60% of BW and pace is also in the same ballpark. With MTC1 skewing higher overall previews will be lower than what MTC1 will suggest. 

When the PS is smaller the ratio can change very fast. Look at TSS. It was in stall mode up until the day before release and many were saying that previews could go as low as 3m. Then the final day alone brought it to 4.1. I am not expecting 9m for Shang-Chi but the possibility is there if it has good acceleration. 

Edited August 28, 2021 by Menor

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Shang-Chi Megaplex

 

T-6 days Thursday: 1293(+98)/16995 in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 5.63M [3030(+191)]

Fast 9 comp: 12.42M

 

T-7 days Friday: 931(+94)/36065 in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 10.38M [2359(+150)]

Fast 9 comp: 22.45M

Shang-Chi Megaplex

 

T-5 days Thursday: 1397(+104)/16995 in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 5.77M [3197(+167)]

Fast 9 comp: 12.72M

 

T-6 days Friday: 1047(+116)/36065 in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 10.54M [2613(+254)]

Fast 9 comp: 21.58M

[keysersoze123]

Shang Chi Saturday(T-7)

MTC1 -  28733/774921 427182.54 3756 shows

MTC2 - 19190/699111 228423.00 4207 shows

 

I did not track MTC2 at that time and I am not sure @Menor has equivalent data. 

 

BW (T-7) // it was morning as opposed to 245PM PST

MTC1 - 59219/848623 708309.00 4249 shows

 

So Saturday PS at MTC1 is slightly at worse ratio than previews PS. That said MTC2 sales are more spread out than MTC1 which is preview heavy. Still being a MCU movie at this point it will be frontloaded. Ratio will be close to BW than say F9. 

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

When the PS is smaller the ratio can change very fast. Look at TSS. It was in stall mode up until the day before release and many were saying that previews could go as low as 3m. Then the final day alone brought it to 4.1. I am not expecting 9m for Shang-Chi but the possibility is there if it has good acceleration. 

i doubt MCU would behave like that. Let us see how things go. 

[charlie Jatinder]

MTC1 & 2 didn't overindex in US for Candyman yesterday but CAN almost did nothing. It did less than half of what you would expect from US numbers.

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

My final BW number was 247K MTC1 and 189K(DBOX Adjusted) MTC2. I dont see Shangi Chi hitting 9m. Its falling behind the ratio required to hit that number and MCU movies have become insanely front loaded as their fanbase has grown. That is inevitable for any maturing fanbase. I am fairly confident with 7-8m previews. Dont forget you grossly overestimated BW comparing it to Captain Marvel !!!!

I haven't looked at seat projection personally but @Menor mentioned what he see. Me & @Lokis Legion just said that these #s will probably be $9M.

 

 

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric Robitaille said:

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	60	1673	11464	14.59%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 133

 

Comp

1.466x of F9 T-6 (10.41M)

0.583x of Black Widow (7.70M)

3.629x of The Suicide Squad (14.88M)

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	60	1787	11464	15.59%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 114

 

Comp

1.381x of F9 T-5 (9.8M)

0.583x of Black Widow T-5 (7.7M)

3.497x of The Suicide Squad T-5 (14.34M)

[keysersoze123]

Candy Man Saturday

MTC1 - 138475/647154 1854665.62 3726 shows

MTC2 - 97864/553954 1134855.99 3530 shows

 

It actually increase a bit today from true friday. Very impressive.

[Nikostar]

55 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Candy Man Saturday

MTC1 - 138475/647154 1854665.62 3726 shows

MTC2 - 97864/553954 1134855.99 3530 shows

 

It actually increase a bit today from true friday. Very impressive.

Impressive indeed.

[Cap]

22 hours ago, Madhuvan said:

yeah Shang-Chi is looking at 7-8m previews now. No required surge for 9-10m previews so far. These are still great numbers though. 

 

22 hours ago, Lokis Legion said:

It’s looking at 9-10ish, keeping pace or slightly exceeding what I wanted to see. Keep in mind the Ontario and atp difference (for applicable trackers, e.g. Porthos already does Ontario so don’t want to double dip).

 

What if it does 8.5?

 

ETA, didn't read far enough:  I see @Porthos' post 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

20 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Shang Chi Harkins T-6 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	155	40,886	1,017	2.49%	$11,946	$11.75
Cine 1	16	4,818	1,021	21.19%	$15,804	$15.48
Cine Capri	4	1,782	96	5.39%	$1,398	$14.56
IMAX	2	890	172	19.33%	$2,580	$15.00
Total	177	48,376	2,306	4.77%	$31,728	$13.76

 

Good uptick today as well at 248. Looking good for that 3K target, though probably 3.1K will be better target. 

 

California Comps 

3.67x The Suicide Squad Gross - $15M

 

The comp will obviously keep decreasing. TSS Final in CA was $23.3K, SC is currently $13.3K, should reach $55K eventually.

Shang Chi Harkins T-5 Days

 

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	155	40,886	1,110	2.71%	$13,042	$11.75
Cine 1	16	4,818	1,063	22.06%	$16,463	$15.49
Cine Capri	4	1,782	114	6.40%	$1,668	$14.63
IMAX	2	890	188	21.12%	$2,820	$15.00
Total	177	48,376	2,475	5.12%	$33,993	$13.73

 

Sold 169 seats today. SAT before release, so down day.

[Porthos]

On 8/27/2021 at 10:42 PM, Porthos said:

 

Shang-Chi and the Legends of the Ten Rings 

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	111	15649	17611	1962	11.14%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

188

 

T-6 Comp

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	48.21		256	4070		0/178	21664/25734	15.82%		6.66m

COMP NOTE: BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Regal: 387/4674 [8.28% sold] [+40 tickets]

 

Shang-Chi and the Legends of the Ten Rings 

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	113	15466	17611	2145	12.18%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

183

 

T-5 Comp

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	49.65		250	4320		0/193	22993/27313	15.82%		6.86m

COMP NOTE: BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Regal: 420/4674 [8.99% sold] [+370 tickets]

 

====

 

NOTE::::: 

 

Made an error in last night's report in that I put in the wrong number for the total amount of tickets Black Widow had sold as of T-6.  It should have been a comp of, ahem, 6.66m.

 

I've corrected it in the quote here and I'll edit my old post in a moment.

 

For the record, that did slightly affect my calcs in my post above as I was using some slightly off figures, but not by much.  If Shang-Chi does 70% of Black WIdow's ticket sales the rest of the way, that points to 8.35m.

 

(SC once again did 73% of BW T-5 sales for what it's worth)

Edited August 29, 2021 by Porthos