The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

20 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Looking at Saturday PS its looking frontloaded but there is still time. 

They doesn't really matter unless they are really strong. 

[Eric Duncan]

On 8/29/2021 at 11:21 PM, Eric and the Ten Rings said:

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	60	1984	11464	17.31%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 197

 

Comp

1.416x of F9 T-4 (10.05M)

0.591x of Black Widow T-4 (7.8M)

3.274x of The Suicide Squad T-4 (13.42M)

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	69	2302	12800	17.98%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 9

Total Seats Added Today: 1,336

Total Seats Sold Today: 318

 

Comp

1.422x of F9 T-3 (10.09M)

0.630x of Black Widow T-3 (8.31M)

3.107x of The Suicide Squad (12.74M)

 

Pretty good final Monday. I was actually unsure if the F9 comp would see an increase, and while obviously it's not the main comp to look out for, it is still nice to see. Looking forward to the next few days.

[charlie Jatinder]

I will miss posting numbers at regular time. Probably 2-4 hours late.

[keysersoze123]

On 8/29/2021 at 7:12 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Shang Chi Previews(T-4)

MTC1 - 67366/403835 1113774.88 2183 shows

MTC2 - 35428/332275 488767.35 2049 shows

Shang Chi OD(T-5)

MTC1 - 54354/721293 872323.96 3512 shows

MTC2(DBOX Adjusted) - 32363/681584 468755.97 4298 shows

 

On 8/28/2021 at 2:53 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Shang Chi Saturday(T-7)

MTC1 -  28733/774921 427182.54 3756 shows

MTC2 - 19190/699111 228423.00 4207 shows

Shang Chi Previews(T-3)

MTC1 -  78642/441765 1287866.04 2488 shows

MTC2 -  42607/371804 584441.15 2486 shows

 

Shang Chi Friday (T-4)

MTC1 - 67416/811682 1068625.43 4169 shows

MTC2 -  38487/718208 482424.13 4412 shows

 

Shang Chi Saturday (T-5)

MTC1 -  42227/784895 616377.49 3819 shows

MTC2 - 24862/729640 287777.02 4470 show

 

Black Widow MTC1 // This is as of July 6 morning and so there is still time for Shang chi to catch up.

Previews - 123086/621483 1803049.00 3580 shows

Friday - 114140/914070 1497629.00 4765 shows

Saturday - 72055/945040 848913.00 4909 shows

 

MTC2// Courtesy @Menor

Previews - 70818/470745

Friday - 56103/796795

 

Strong day for sure. bumping up previews to 8.5-9m range for now. 

[Legion Again]

Huge surge, but I also notice this is about 27 hours after yday. Was it a slightly later run or performed about the same time and weren’t able to post until now?

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Huge surge, but I also notice this is about 27 hours after yday. Was it a slightly later run or performed about the same time and weren’t able to post until now?

No its more than 1 day for sure. Previews around 27.5 hours and OD about 26.5 hours. Still the surge is excellent. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Per MTC tracking $3.8M previews for SC so far as compared to $5.9M of BW.

 

In last 3 days, SC added $1.05M as compared to $1.3M of BW.

 

BW added $7.4M in final 3 days, hoping for $5.5M+ for SC.

[Porthos]

On 8/29/2021 at 10:36 PM, Porthos said:

 

Shang-Chi and the Legends of the Ten Rings 

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	113	15205	17611	2406	13.66%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

261

 

T-4 Comp

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	52.02		305	4625		0/193	22688/27313	16.93%		7.19m

COMP NOTE: BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Regal: 482/4674 [10.31% sold] [+62 tickets]

 

===

 

Very nice day today.  Shang-Chi did about 85% of Black Widow's T-4.  If there was a Cinemark effect (and I didn't really see one), it probably just spilled to nearby theaters.

 

Think I'll rope in a The Suicide Squad comp starting tomorrow.  Maaaaaaybe F9, but still mulling that one over.  F9 would have an Ontario adjustment, while TSS obviously would not.

 

Shang-Chi and the Legends of the Ten Rings 

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	156	19111	21852	2741	12.54%

 

Total Showings Added Today	43
Total Seats Added Today	4241
Total Seats Sold Today	335

 

T-3 Comp

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	53.81		469	5094		0/193	22219/27313	18.65%		7.44m
TSS	306.26		144	895		0/100	15314/16209	5.52%		12.86m

COMP NOTE: The BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955). The TSS Comp has not been adjusted.

 

Regal: 572/6465 [8.85% sold] [+90 tickets]

 

===

 

Very solid, but not spectacular day.  Shang-Chi did approx 71% of Black Widow's T-3 locally. 

 

Not too much else to say, except perhaps, yes the TSS comp remains useless.  Barring the occasional blip, here in Sacto it's 'steady as she goes' for a low to mid 8m comp.  Have to see how much showtime expansion helps goose the numbers tomorrow.  BW sold 706 tickets locally at T-2, so 70% of that would be just shy of 500 (491.4).  

[Inceptionzq]

So I've been thinking, tomorrow could break hopes for 9M+. At least with Denver comps. Today's acceleration was absolutely huge, 262 sold today vs 99 for yesterday. It's possible that Denver won't have much acceleration tomorrow and will sell say 280. Getting to 2070 sold overall, which would still increase the BW comp to 7.81M. But the comp getting to 9M would be hard from that point. If it goes 1.7x from T-1 day, then it would have to sell 482 tickets the day before release for 9M. A 1.72x increase from 280. 

 

This goes for Wednesday too. If tomorrow is another great day, will it be able to keep up a high acceleration or go relatively flat? There needs to be an average acceleration of almost 28% for both Tuesday and Wednesday with a final total of 1.7x T-1. Even if I'm a little more optimistic, and go with a final total of 1.72x T-1, there still needs to be an average acceleration of 25% for both days.

 

I think it'll be really hard for both days to maintain really good acceleration after today, so I think 9M may be out of the picture(again just based on Denver).

[Madhuvan]

Seems like 8-8.5m is nice target reading through the numbers so far. Let's see how it does today.  

[charlie Jatinder]

On 8/30/2021 at 12:54 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Shang Chi Harkins T-4 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	155	40,886	1,388	3.39%	$16,370	$11.79
Cine 1	16	4,818	1,148	23.83%	$17,756	$15.47
Cine Capri	4	1,782	131	7.35%	$1,839	$14.04
IMAX	2	890	201	22.58%	$3,015	$15.00
Total	177	48,376	2,868	5.93%	$38,980	$13.59

 

Sold 393 seats. Good day. Let's see how it maintain tomorrow. Should be 400 day may be. I will have comp with BW tomorrow. 

 

Comps

3.62x The Suicide Squad CA Gross - $14.84M

2.98x The Suicide Squad Estrella Fall & Arizona Mills Gross - $12.22M

Shang Chi Harkins T-3 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	155	40,886	1,765	4.32%	$20,785	$11.78
Cine 1	16	4,818	1,292	26.82%	$19,939	$15.43
Cine Capri	4	1,782	155	8.70%	$2,145	$13.84
IMAX	2	890	219	24.61%	$3,285	$15.00
Total	177	48,376	3,431	7.09%	$46,154	$13.45

 

Well. Well. Well. Sold 563 seats today. HUGE increase. In last 4 days, added 1373 seats, compared to 1777 of Black Widow, which adjusted for higher ATP is almost 90% in GROSS.  BW final number was 3.58x of T-3 days, SC may be 4x.

 

Comps
63.09% of Black Widow Gross - $8.7M

322.5% of The Suicide Squad Tracked Gross - $13.2M

 

Harkins will probably point toward $9.5-10M eventually I guess.

[Legion Again]

30 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

So I've been thinking, tomorrow could break hopes for 9M+. At least with Denver comps. Today's acceleration was absolutely huge, 262 sold today vs 99 for yesterday. It's possible that Denver won't have much acceleration tomorrow and will sell say 280. Getting to 2070 sold overall, which would still increase the BW comp to 7.81M. But the comp getting to 9M would be hard from that point. If it goes 1.7x from T-1 day, then it would have to sell 482 tickets the day before release for 9M. A 1.72x increase from 280. 

 

This goes for Wednesday too. If tomorrow is another great day, will it be able to keep up a high acceleration or go relatively flat? There needs to be an average acceleration of almost 28% for both Tuesday and Wednesday with a final total of 1.7x T-1. Even if I'm a little more optimistic, and go with a final total of 1.72x T-1, there still needs to be an average acceleration of 25% for both days.

 

I think it'll be really hard for both days to maintain really good acceleration after today, so I think 9M may be out of the picture(again just based on Denver).

But a final Denver comp of “7.8” is actually more like 9! Since, as I understand it, correct me if I’m wrong, you aren’t correcting for Canada (Ontario) or with the higher atp, right? Just SC admits/BW admits. If vs BW straight admits admits gives  7.8, then using 10% higher ATP it’s ~8.6 and then considering Canada ~9.0.
 

I feel like this didn’t get the attention it deserved when it was first discussed, pretty important.  SC tickets are 12% higher ATP for MTC T-3! Furthermore, MTC1 has higher ATP than MTC2 for previews, so the greater MTC1  skew, while it comes with some drawbacks as well and hopefully become less extreme by final day, increase the SC ATP/BW ATP by even more.

[Legion Again]

For the people comping vs BW without Canada or ATP considerations, you’re gonna get like 8.5, but it’s actually going to mean like 10. Which is no guarantee that the national figure will be 10 — but if the national comes in at 8.5 it wouldn’t be a case of “regional comp was bang on” it would be a case of “regional suggested 10 in reality but it overperformed regionally, cancelling out.”
 

 

Edited August 31, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[charlie Jatinder]

16 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Shang Chi Harkins T-3 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	155	40,886	1,765	4.32%	$20,785	$11.78
Cine 1	16	4,818	1,292	26.82%	$19,939	$15.43
Cine Capri	4	1,782	155	8.70%	$2,145	$13.84
IMAX	2	890	219	24.61%	$3,285	$15.00
Total	177	48,376	3,431	7.09%	$46,154	$13.45

 

Well. Well. Well. Sold 563 seats today. HUGE increase. In last 4 days, added 1373 seats, compared to 1777 of Black Widow, which adjusted for higher ATP is almost 90% in GROSS.  BW final number was 3.58x of T-3 days, SC may be 4x.

 

Comps
63.09% of Black Widow Gross - $8.7M

322.5% of The Suicide Squad Tracked Gross - $13.2M

 

Harkins will probably point toward $9.5-10M eventually I guess.

@Porthos tagging you to say that if Sacramento is over indexing, it won't be alone. South CA is also over indexing. CA Harkins is 70% of BW Gross so far, eventually should be around 80% I suppose.

 

Outside CA, SC Gross is 60% of BW, but the under indexing could also be due to the fact that SC is missing 3 PLF screens which BW had.

BW in 3 Cine Capris had gross of $6,161 at T-3 days while SC is $2,145 in 2, one of which is just a lame duck.

Edited August 31, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Jamiem]

I'm expecting Shang-Chi (probably not shocking) to over index in markets with strong Chinese populations, off the top of my head that would be LA, SF, NY, Toronto and Vancouver.

 

Vancouver in particular should be giant, it will play like Black Panther in that city (if the film hits) as something like a quarter of the population is ethnic Chinese. 

Edited August 31, 2021 by Jamiem

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

I'm expecting Shang-Chi (probably not shocking) to over index in markets with strong Chinese populations, off the top of my head that would be LA, SF, NY, Toronto and Vancouver.

 

Vancouver in particular should be giant, it will play like Black Panther in that city (if the film hits) as something like a quarter of the population is ethnic Chinese. 

Vancouver is selling par/better BW.

[Porthos]

23 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

I'm expecting Shang-Chi (probably not shocking) to over index in markets with strong Chinese populations, off the top of my head that would be LA, SF, NY, Toronto and Vancouver.

 

Vancouver in particular should be giant, it will play like Black Panther in that city (if the film hits) as something like a quarter of the population is ethnic Chinese. 

 

While I don't have one for Canada, I do have this from the ever reliable Wikipedia.

 

Two ways to look at this.

 

Population:

Metropolitan areas with more than 20,000 Chinese-Americans[edit]

The list of metropolitan areas with a Chinese-American population of 20,000 or more as of the 2011-2015 American Community Survey.

Rank	MSA	Region	Chinese-Americans	Percentage
1	New York-Newark-Jersey City	Mid-Atlantic	739,144	3.7
2	Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim	Pacific	528,248	4.0
3	San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward	Pacific	460,252	10.2
4	San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara	Pacific	169,026	8.8
5	Boston-Cambridge-Newton	New England	133,241	2.8
6	Chicago-Naperville-Elgin	East North Central	109,046	1.1
7	Washington-Arlington-Alexandria	South Atlantic	105,462	1.8
8	Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue	Pacific	98,949	2.7
9	Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land	West South Central	86,246	1.4
10	Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington	Mid-Atlantic	82,487	1.4
11	Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade	Pacific	61,203	2.8
12	Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington	West South Central	57,325	0.8
13	San Diego-Carlsbad	Pacific	56,751	1.8
14	Urban Honolulu	Pacific	53,119	5.4
15	Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario	Pacific	51,628	1.2

 

And percentage:

 

Rank	MSA	Region	Chinese-Americans	Percentage
3	San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward	Pacific	460,252	10.2
4	San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara	Pacific	169,026	8.8
14	Urban Honolulu	Pacific	53,119	5.4
2	Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim	Pacific	528,248	4.0
1	New York-Newark-Jersey City	Mid-Atlantic	739,144	3.7
5	Boston-Cambridge-Newton	New England	133,241	2.8
11	Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade	Pacific	61,203	2.8
8	Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue	Pacific	98,949	2.7
7	Washington-Arlington-Alexandria	South Atlantic	105,462	1.8
13	San Diego-Carlsbad	Pacific	56,751	1.8
19	Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise	Mountain	30,329	1.5
9	Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land	West South Central	86,246	1.4
10	Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington	Mid-Atlantic	82,487	1.4
18	Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro	Pacific	31,533	1.4
15	Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario	Pacific	51,628	1.2
6	Chicago-Naperville-Elgin	East North Central	109,046	1.1
24	Austin-Round Rock	West South Central	20,182	1.1

 

Sacramento's not exactly a slouch on either department.  Philly's up there as well, though more on pure numbers than percentage.

 

Not sure it's gonna matter that much with regional trackers, but I do think it'll be a factor, yes.  I'm planning on taking it into consideration (and, yes,@Lokis Legion I plan on taking matinee into account as well - I usually do when I don't have a direct like for like comp).

 

====

 

Speaking of taking both over-performing and matinees into account, of course there's also 3D and PLF.  Took a quick glance at the respective T-3's and for whatever reason, Shang-Chi is running behind the established BW percentage when it comes 3D [SC's 3D is 44% of BW's 3D sales locally at T-3 compared to the overall rate of 54% of BW's sales].  On the other hand, PLF is slightly above pace [SC's PLF is 63.87% of BW's PLF sales at T-3 versus the aforementioned 54% of BW's sales].  I reckon at least some of that is that SC has had a later expansion of non-PLF screens than BW had.  But the 3D penetration locally is less explainable without really drilling into the weeds. 

 

The relative 3D and PLF penetration at the end of the day will also matter when all is said and done.  I'll probably glance at it and see if there is anything particularly different when it comes to SC and BW.

 

At the end of the day, most of this is problematic because Shang-Chi is the first major film of the re-opened pandemic era to have:

 

6pm+ start time (so no or next to no matinees)

3D

PLF

PG-13 rating

Entire DOM market re-opened

No day-and-date whatsoever.

 

I suppose there's Free Guy and Jungle Cruise (JC's day-and-date started on Friday), but c'mon now. I said 'major' and I meant it. 

 

So, sure, adjustments will have to be made, considering this is something of a first-of-it's-kind release in this stage of the pandemi, with lack of matinee being a biggie. But the adjustments go in more than one direction is more or less what I am saying.  For some of us local trackers at least.

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

So I've been thinking, tomorrow could break hopes for 9M+. At least with Denver comps. Today's acceleration was absolutely huge, 262 sold today vs 99 for yesterday. It's possible that Denver won't have much acceleration tomorrow and will sell say 280. Getting to 2070 sold overall, which would still increase the BW comp to 7.81M. But the comp getting to 9M would be hard from that point. If it goes 1.7x from T-1 day, then it would have to sell 482 tickets the day before release for 9M. A 1.72x increase from 280. 

 

This goes for Wednesday too. If tomorrow is another great day, will it be able to keep up a high acceleration or go relatively flat? There needs to be an average acceleration of almost 28% for both Tuesday and Wednesday with a final total of 1.7x T-1. Even if I'm a little more optimistic, and go with a final total of 1.72x T-1, there still needs to be an average acceleration of 25% for both days.

 

I think it'll be really hard for both days to maintain really good acceleration after today, so I think 9M may be out of the picture(again just based on Denver).

I'm not sure about that. Yeah today could be fairly flat but Wednesday should be a strong increase since it's the day before. Even BW accelerated 50% on the Wednesday and this has been trending better.

 

Btw @keysersoze123 I think you are reading my BW numbers a day off, it should be 80059 and 68709.

Edited August 31, 2021 by Menor

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/30/2021 at 7:49 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-3	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	50	7,741	532	65	6.87%
		Phoenix	6	34	5,968	652	83	10.92%
		Raleigh	8	33	3,992	633	106	15.86%
	Shang-Chi Total		20	117	17,701	1,817	254	10.26%

 

SC added 9 shows (646 seats) yesterday while more than doubling sales from the previous day.  Easily the best day for SC so far and makes 8m look a lot more likely if this isn't just a fluke day.  It has finally surpassed 50% of BW's tickets sold at this point and is just over 50% in total $ sales ($47,468 to $24,685).

 

Comps

BW - .507x (6.7m)

F9 - 1.25x (8.91m)

TSS - 2.94x (12.07m)

 

T-3 snapshot comparison

 

Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Black Widow	Jacksonville	6	76	12,095	1,130	52	9.34%
	Phoenix	7	77	10,692	959	40	8.97%
	Raleigh	8	74	8,303	1,492	100	17.97%
Black Widow Total		21	227	31,090	3,581	192	11.52%
F9: The Fast Saga	Jacksonville	6	47	8,312	406	52	4.88%
	Phoenix	7	58	8,498	480	64	5.65%
	Raleigh	8	46	4,985	562	91	11.27%
F9: The Fast Saga Total		21	151	21,795	1,448	207	6.64%
Suicide Squad	Jacksonville	6	30	5,373	203	36	3.78%
	Phoenix	7	31	4,202	218	28	5.19%
	Raleigh	8	29	3,464	196	40	5.66%
Suicide Squad Total		21	90	13,039	617	104	4.73%
Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	49	7,647	532	65	6.96%
	Phoenix	6	35	5,975	652	83	10.91%
	Raleigh	8	34	4,058	633	106	15.60%
Shang-Chi Total		20	118	17,680	1,817	254	10.28%

Daily sales rate comparison

 

 

Extended through T-1 hour (1)

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-2	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	49	7,647	626	94	8.19%
		Phoenix	6	35	5,975	732	80	12.25%
		Raleigh	8	34	4,058	737	104	18.16%
	Shang-Chi Total		20	118	17,680	2,095	278	11.85%

 

Not really the Monday we were hoping for unfortunately.  Partly because of how big the Sunday jump was, but Monday only beat Sunday by 24 sales where BW jumped from 192 to 505 new.   While not exactly inspiring, it was a 15% jump in total sales compared to BW's 14% so it still improves the comp a little.    I'll update the graphs again tomorrow and Thursday when I have more time.  

 

Comps

BW - .513x (6.77m)

F9 - 1.21x (8.6m)

TSS - 2.87x (11.77M)

 

In total sales dollars, SC is at .52x of BW, $47,468 to $24,686.  This is calculated using the adult price for each ticket sold so far. 

 

T-2 Snapshot (*I've updated the T-3 snapshot above; I hadn't updated one of the custom fields from T-4 to T-3 so the Total Sold were too low.)

 

Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Black Widow	Jacksonville	6	66	11,271	1,310	180	11.62%
	Phoenix	6	59	9,189	1,058	99	11.51%
	Raleigh	7	53	6,328	1,718	226	27.15%
Black Widow Total		19	178	26,788	4,086	505	15.25%
F9: The Fast Saga	Jacksonville	6	42	7,818	481	75	6.15%
	Phoenix	6	47	7,731	580	100	7.50%
	Raleigh	8	35	4,235	669	107	15.80%
F9: The Fast Saga Total		20	124	19,784	1,730	282	8.74%
Suicide Squad	Jacksonville	6	25	4,604	241	38	5.23%
	Phoenix	6	26	3,923	260	42	6.63%
	Raleigh	8	25	3,230	228	32	7.06%
Suicide Squad Total		20	76	11,757	729	112	6.20%
Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	49	7,647	626	94	8.19%
	Phoenix	6	35	5,975	732	80	12.25%
	Raleigh	8	34	4,058	737	104	18.16%
Shang-Chi Total		20	118	17,680	2,095	278	11.85%

[Borobudur]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

While I don't have one for Canada, I do have this from the ever reliable Wikipedia.

 

Two ways to look at this.

 

Population:

Metropolitan areas with more than 20,000 Chinese-Americans[edit]

The list of metropolitan areas with a Chinese-American population of 20,000 or more as of the 2011-2015 American Community Survey.

Rank	MSA	Region	Chinese-Americans	Percentage
1	New York-Newark-Jersey City	Mid-Atlantic	739,144	3.7
2	Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim	Pacific	528,248	4.0
3	San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward	Pacific	460,252	10.2
4	San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara	Pacific	169,026	8.8
5	Boston-Cambridge-Newton	New England	133,241	2.8
6	Chicago-Naperville-Elgin	East North Central	109,046	1.1
7	Washington-Arlington-Alexandria	South Atlantic	105,462	1.8
8	Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue	Pacific	98,949	2.7
9	Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land	West South Central	86,246	1.4
10	Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington	Mid-Atlantic	82,487	1.4
11	Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade	Pacific	61,203	2.8
12	Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington	West South Central	57,325	0.8
13	San Diego-Carlsbad	Pacific	56,751	1.8
14	Urban Honolulu	Pacific	53,119	5.4
15	Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario	Pacific	51,628	1.2

 

And percentage:

 

Rank	MSA	Region	Chinese-Americans	Percentage
3	San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward	Pacific	460,252	10.2
4	San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara	Pacific	169,026	8.8
14	Urban Honolulu	Pacific	53,119	5.4
2	Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim	Pacific	528,248	4.0
1	New York-Newark-Jersey City	Mid-Atlantic	739,144	3.7
5	Boston-Cambridge-Newton	New England	133,241	2.8
11	Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade	Pacific	61,203	2.8
8	Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue	Pacific	98,949	2.7
7	Washington-Arlington-Alexandria	South Atlantic	105,462	1.8
13	San Diego-Carlsbad	Pacific	56,751	1.8
19	Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise	Mountain	30,329	1.5
9	Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land	West South Central	86,246	1.4
10	Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington	Mid-Atlantic	82,487	1.4
18	Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro	Pacific	31,533	1.4
15	Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario	Pacific	51,628	1.2
6	Chicago-Naperville-Elgin	East North Central	109,046	1.1
24	Austin-Round Rock	West South Central	20,182	1.1

 

Sacramento's not exactly a slouch on either department.  Philly's up there as well, though more on pure numbers than percentage.

 

Not sure it's gonna matter that much with regional trackers, but I do think it'll be a factor, yes.  I'm planning on taking it into consideration (and, yes,@Lokis Legion I plan on taking matinee into account as well - I usually do when I don't have a direct like for like comp).

 

====

 

Speaking of taking both over-performing and matinees into account, of course there's also 3D and PLF.  Took a quick glance at the respective T-3's and for whatever reason, Shang-Chi is running behind the established BW percentage when it comes 3D [SC's 3D is 44% of BW's 3D sales locally at T-3 compared to the overall rate of 54% of BW's sales].  On the other hand, PLF is slightly above pace [SC's PLF is 63.87% of BW's PLF sales at T-3 versus the aforementioned 54% of BW's sales].  I reckon at least some of that is that SC has had a later expansion of non-PLF screens than BW had.  But the 3D penetration locally is less explainable without really drilling into the weeds. 

 

The relative 3D and PLF penetration at the end of the day will also matter when all is said and done.  I'll probably glance at it and see if there is anything particularly different when it comes to SC and BW.

 

At the end of the day, most of this is problematic because Shang-Chi is the first major film of the re-opened pandemic era to have:

 

6pm+ start time (so no or next to no matinees)

3D

PLF

PG-13 rating

Entire DOM market re-opened

No day-and-date whatsoever.

 

I suppose there's Free Guy and Jungle Cruise (JC's day-and-date started on Friday), but c'mon now. I said 'major' and I meant it. 

 

So, sure, adjustments will have to be made, considering this is something of a first-of-it's-kind release in this stage of the pandemi, with lack of matinee being a biggie. But the adjustments go in more than one direction is more or less what I am saying.  For some of us local trackers at least.

Luckily most of these areas aren't impacted badly by the delta