The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

Ok. So yesterday night SC was at 78k MTC1 and 42k MTC2. BW was 123k at MTC1 a bit later and 80k at MTC2 a bit earlier. Current pace seems like 70% of BW at MTC1 and 60% of BW at MTC2 (estimating). If it just followed that exactly I suppose it would finish at 170k MTC1 and 117k MTC2. But it can probably do better (especially now that all July 4th weirdness with BW is out of the way). So maybe 175-180k MTC1 and 125k MTC2 is possible. Using a BW comp and taking a 10% higher ATP that would be 9.71. I think this will overstate things because it's heavily overindexing in MTC1 and major cities. Using a TSS comp it would get 9.3, that may be better since TSS had an MTC1 skew and a PLF skew like SC and (I think) didn't have matinees as well, with an R rating maybe adjust that comp down slightly. 

[Inceptionzq]

5 hours ago, Lokis Legion said:

But a final Denver comp of “7.8” is actually more like 9! Since, as I understand it, correct me if I’m wrong, you aren’t correcting for Canada (Ontario) or with the higher atp, right? Just SC admits/BW admits. If vs BW straight admits admits gives  7.8, then using 10% higher ATP it’s ~8.6 and then considering Canada ~9.0.

That's fair, I'm not adjusting for Ontario. As for ATP, I honestly never adjust for that. Looking around Denver, there are a few theaters that have Matinees up to 6PM. For BW they accounted for less than 9% of tickets. I feel like there's enough regional variation/randomness that trying to adjust for ATP doesn't matter that much. Just one example here, the 9M mark for the BW comp is 4338 tickets sold. TSS comp with that many tickets sold is 9.01M. TSS obviously had a higher ATP, and start time plays a factor into how close the comps are, but still just some random variance at play. According to the BW comp and ATP, it must've overperformed, at least at the time of the count. But maybe walkups weren't as strong in the region as they were nationally. Like you said yourself, even if ends up being 8.5M and that's what the unadjusted Denver comp suggests, it's probably just Denver overperforming rather than performing like it did nationally. But you do make good points so I'll at least add an Ontario adjusted BW comp for both Denver and Megaplex. Maybe I'll adjust for ATP in Denver if I feel like I can do it properly. Probably won't for Megaplex because I don't track the individual shows, just by theater.

[charlie Jatinder]

Per MTC tracking
 

Shang Chi T-3 Days

 

THU - $3.8M

FRI - $3.5M

SAT - $2.1M

Rest - $1.5M Approx

Total - $11M Approx

 

Opening day (THU+FRI) is 2/3rd of Black Widow and 3.2x of TSS.

Adjusting for ON, BW would have opened $40.75M Approx, so simple calculation gives $27.2M. I am hoping for $28.5M OD, in theory comp should rise in next 3 days.

[john2000]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Per MTC tracking
 

Shang Chi T-3 Days

 

THU - $3.8M

FRI - $3.5M

SAT - $2.1M

Rest - $1.5M Approx

Total - $11M Approx

 

Opening day (THU+FRI) is 2/3rd of Black Widow and 3.2x of TSS.

Adjusting for ON, BW would have opened $40.75M Approx, so simple calculation gives $27.2M. I am hoping for $28.5M OD, in theory comp should rise in next 3 days.

a 28,5 mill od would lead to 70+ (3day) ?  bc of labor day sunday will probably have a very small drop right ?

Edited August 31, 2021 by john2000

[katnisscinnaplex]

Jacksonville weekend sales by day with comps.  Take these with a grain of salt; 4-day weekend will have a much higher Sunday that isn't accounted for here.  This would be based on a normal 3-day weekend:

 

	Th	Fr	Sat	Sun	Total
Shang-Chi	626	437	299	163	1,525
Black Widow	1,310	972	584	278	3,144
Fast & Furious 9	489	674	443	197	1,803
Suicide Squad	241	161	126	61	589

 

Preview:	8.5m	9m	9.5m
Black Widow	$52,529,504	$55,619,475	$58,709,446
Fast & Furious 9	$55,403,217	$58,662,230	$61,921,242
Suicide Squad	$54,153,106	$57,338,583	$60,524,059

[Madhuvan]

5 minutes ago, john2000 said:

a 28,5 mill od would lead to 70+ (3day) ?  bc of labor day sunday will probably have a very small drop right ?

yeah.

imo 28+24+18 = 70m 3-day weekend 

[charlie Jatinder]

I am thinking/hoping

9.5
19
21.5
19 // 69
13 // 82

[john2000]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I am thinking/hoping

9.5
19
21.5
19 // 69
13 // 82

i am hoping for a 8 multi for 76 mill three day

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

i am hoping for a 8 multi for 76 mill three day

Considering current PS that seems rather tough. Though Fri/Sat are much more flexible than Thursday of course since they do more business in the last couple of days. 

[TalismanRing]

 

46 minutes ago, Menor said:

Considering current PS that seems rather tough. Though Fri/Sat are much more flexible than Thursday of course since they do more business in the last couple of days. 

 

Weekend should be far more walk up heavy.   Charlie's hopeful 7.2 w/e multi seems low end for a non summer MCU movie with previews under 10m and a Monday that makes Sunday act like another Saturday.   Strange had a 9x multi off a $9.4m previews with no Monday holiday.   Unless the Chinese American /Canadian audience is disproportionately pushing previews in a rush factor that upends the usual MCU playbook.

Edited August 31, 2021 by TalismanRing

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

Weekend should be far more walk up heavy.   Charlie's hopeful 7.2 w/e multi seems low end for a non summer MCU movie with previews under 10m and a Monday that makes Sunday act like another Saturday.   Strange had a 9x multi off a $9.4m previews with no Monday holiday

I am being a bit cautious. Can easily do 7.8x 3 days and 9.5x 4 days.

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

 

Weekend should be far more walk up heavy.   Charlie's hopeful 7.2 w/e multi seems low end for a non summer MCU movie with previews under 10m and a Monday that makes Sunday act like another Saturday.   Strange had a 9x multi off a $9.4m previews with no Monday holiday.   Unless the Chinese American /Canadian audience is disproportionately pushing previews in a rush factor that upends the usual MCU playbook.

It's definitely possible. I'm just a bit cautious since BW. Of course it had PA but even considering that the Saturday drop was very harsh. I'm wondering if part of that is just that the MCU is becoming more Friday loaded (so SC bump would be closer to 10% than the usual 20).

[CJohn]

All these predictions are turning me on. Still leaning on the conservative side with 60M 4 day weekend.

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

It's definitely possible. I'm just a bit cautious since BW. Of course it had PA but even considering that the Saturday drop was very harsh. I'm wondering if part of that is just that the MCU is becoming more Friday loaded (so SC bump would be closer to 10% than the usual 20).

 

I think that's more due to PA.  Endgame did near 6 with $60m in previews. Captain Marvel did 7.4x  with $20.7m and neither had a Monday holiday.

[iHeartJames]

These predictions are getting me wet

[titanic2187]

16 minutes ago, CJohn said:

All these predictions are turning me on. Still leaning on the conservative side with 60M 4 day weekend.

You are unreasonably pessimistic. Don't think you can set a low expectation just to cheer things up...that is not a triumph, that is just sugar-coating.  

 

I am thinking 65m 3 days, hoping for 75m. The market need some overperformer. 

Edited August 31, 2021 by titanic2187

[charlie Jatinder]

36 minutes ago, CJohn said:

All these predictions are turning me on. 

 

24 minutes ago, iHeartJames said:

These predictions are getting me wet

Congrats. You two are matched. 

[el sid]

Shang-Chi counted today at 11am EST for Friday, September 3:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 535 (13 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 426 (11 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 85 (10 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 55 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 64 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 834 (15 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 673 (16 showtimes)
 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 2.672.
Up 52.5% since last Friday.
Comps: TSS had also on Tuesday of its release week 1.089 sold tickets in the same 7 theaters. Means Shang-Chi = 2.45x TSS = 19.6M true Friday at the moment. Very interesting that this is exactly the same factor as last time/last Friday. So SC just kept its margin.
At the moment the TSS comp would mean 7.6M (Thursday) + 19.6M (Friday) = 27.2M. I expect an increase in the Thursday comp but I'm not sure if the Friday lead will stay that big.
Birds of Prey's final Friday number (9M true Friday), counted one day before = on Thursday, was 1.664. That would be at the moment (of course just for fun) a 14.5M true Friday with 2 days left to increase the margin. E.g. TSS's sales rose 43% from Tuesday to Thursday which would lead to a 20.65M true Friday but that's just theoretical.

[Tinalera]

Shang Chi

Taken Aug 31 for FRIDAY sept 3

Toronto Ontario

 

	friday
17	22	39	Vip
14	24	38
17	24	41
12	32	44
18	28	46	vip
25	14	39
20	23	43
17	30	47
53	110	163	Imax
61	117	178
77	96	173
66	102	168
22	21	43	4dx
20	22	42
24	24	48
19	33	52
89	156	245	imax	sco
93	182	275
		200	sold out
125	139	264
11	357	368	3d
22	336	358
69	225	294
89	372	461
0	36	36	vip	varsity
0	36	36
1	33	34
0	36	36
0	36	36	vip
2	30	32
0	36	36
0	36	36
9	22	31
12	10	22
20	14	34
		30		sellout
3	387	390	reg
2	390	392
16	318	334
2	390	392
24	405	429	3d
31	247	278	avx	Yonge Eglinton
41	232	273
77	172	249
54	224	278
12	52	64	vip
40	19	59
		50		sellout
24	37	61
65	190	255	York	avx3d
77	159	236	avx
81	155	236
111	112	223
27	274	301	imax	egtwn
27	279	306
115	116	231
57	219	276
15	202	217	3d
11	217	228
46	138	184
3	231	234
87	112	199	avx	queen
89	91	180
88	100	188
93	98	191
6	92	98	vip
21	72	93
21	63	84
24	70	94
32	49	81
42	41	83
39	43	82
40	48	88
			2 Sellouts
			No seat count
27	245	272	Imax	Empress
58	166	224
77	108	185
52	175	227
41	233	274	3d
26	280	306	reg
21	276	297
68	158	226
2937		13716
Total seats sold	`	Total seats sold and available

[Tinalera]

So I decided to put up Friday numbers-have a head banging session coming on when they put in more screens. The blank spots are where no doubt more seats/screens will probably be inserted by Cineplex. 

 

There were two sellouts that I didn't even have a reference for how many seats normally were sold from previous shows in the same block. I think it might the difference of 200-300 additional sales, for approximate reasons.