The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[WrathOfHan]

Shang-Chi:

6:00 Dolby: 100/236 (+16)

6:10 Open Caption: 2/40 (+2)

6:30 IMAX: 60/372 (+20)

7:00: 59/107 (+5)

7:30 3D: 5/107 (+5)

9:30 Dolby: 70/236 (+21)

Total: 296/1,098 (+69) (Nice)

 

Comps:

 

82% of Black Widow the day before (10.8M)

229% of F9 three days out (16M)

269% of AQP2 two days out (12.9M)

365% of The Suicide Squad two days out (15M)

 

So remember how I said it'll probably get to 80-85% of Widow on Wednesday? It's now there on Tuesday Once full showtimes are up it has a very realistic chance of outpacing Widow  

 

[titanic2187]

12 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Shang-Chi:

6:00 Dolby: 100/236 (+16)

6:10 Open Caption: 2/40 (+2)

6:30 IMAX: 60/372 (+20)

7:00: 59/107 (+5)

7:30 3D: 5/107 (+5)

9:30 Dolby: 70/236 (+21)

Total: 296/1,098 (+69) (Nice)

 

Comps:

 

82% of Black Widow the day before (10.8M)

229% of F9 three days out (16M)

269% of AQP2 two days out (12.9M)

365% of The Suicide Squad two days out (15M)

 

So remember how I said it'll probably get to 80-85% of Widow on Wednesday? It's now there on Tuesday Once full showtimes are up it has a very realistic chance of outpacing Widow  

 

And this is in Florda? the place where Delta hit the worst and lesser asian-american.  

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

And this is in Florda? the place where Delta hit the worst and lesser asian-american.  

Yes; keep in mind it's in a metro that's 70% blue full of college students, aka the audience likeliest to go out to theaters right now.

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

And this is in Florda? the place where Delta hit the worst and lesser asian-american.  

 

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Yes; keep in mind it's in a metro that's 70% blue full of college students, aka the audience likeliest to go out to theaters right now.

 

And the place where Disney might be a very beloved company:)...

[MrPink]

When Rentrak sees all of us Asians flocking to Shang Chi this weekend:

 

 

OUR TIME IS NOW

 

 

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, MrPink said:

When Rentrak sees all of us Asians flocking to Shang Chi this weekend:

 

 

OUR TIME IS NOW

 

 

Are you saying all asians are one? Are you sure if Indians or Japanese or Koreans will flock ?

 

That said MCU has strongest fanbase ATM. Even bigger than SW. So they will be there OW. It does not matter that this movie has an asian heading the cast. 

[MrPink]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Are you saying all asians are one? Are you sure if Indians or Japanese or Koreans will flock ?

 

That said MCU has strongest fanbase ATM. Even bigger than SW. So they will be there OW. It does not matter that this movie has an asian heading the cast. 

 

If you were to take my statement at complete face value, I mean the presumably high proportion of Asians in general specifically going to see Shang Chi, especially since Rentrak isn't going to break it down further than Asians. Of course the proportion will vary amongst the various Asian ethnicities but collectively should be larger than the normal blockbuster.

 

I myself am not Chinese, but I am still compelled/excited to see it.

Edited August 31, 2021 by MrPink

[TalismanRing]

SC - 23% jump in seats sold from yesterday

No Tues # for BW but only jumped 36% from Mon to Wed

 

COMPS

X-Men:DP - $11.36m
Joker: $7.8m
BOP: $11.14m
TSS: $16.93m

 

 

NYC Local	Mon		Tues		Wed		Thur		Previews	Start
Shang-Chi	190/1402	(5pm)	234/1402	(5pm)						6:00 PM
X-Men: DP			103/942	(4pm)	209/942	(3:15pm)	272/942	(3:45pm)	$5m	6:00 PM
Joker	328/3536	(4:20pm)	399/3536	(4pm)	542/3536	(4pm)	760/3741	(3:45pm)	$13.3m	4:00 PM
Birds Of Prey	71/1844	(5pm)	84/1844	(7:30pm)	106/1844	(7:45pm)	166/1844	(5pm)	$4m	6:00 PM
Black Widow	239/3584	(5pm)			326/3584	(5pm)			$13.2m	5:00 PM
Hobbs & Shaw	60/1543	(5:20pm)			181/1543	(4pm)			$5.8m	7:00 PM
The Suicide Squad	52/1242	(6pm)	58/1242	(6pm)	79/1242	(6pm)	153/1242	(6:15pm)	$4.2m	7:00 PM

 

[HouseOfTheSun]

Got some friends who wanted to see this movie in theaters so it appears I will be making my return to the big screen 👀 

 

the company numbers vs BW have continues to move clear to 100% for you guys…that’s a very good sign we could be seeing a breakout 

[Jamiem]

By the way forgot to ask this a while back but does the MTC data include people that rent out a full theatre for the $200-300? Or are you unable to track that? @keysersoze123 @Menor

 

Because it seems to be a somewhat popular thing to do to make sure that people know who will be in the theatre with them with Delta concerns. 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Shang-Chi Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

378

1786

21.16%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

349

1396

25.00%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1790	262	16946	10.56%	15	94

 

Showings added: 9

Seats added: 1410

 

AMCs sold	1212
Cinemarks sold	213
Regals sold	269
Harkins sold	96

 

Black Widow comp: 7.58M

Fast 9 comp: 12.04M

Suicide Squad comp: 11.84M

 

Massive day. Over 86% of BW's pace today. Even increased with F9 and TSS, which was pretty surprising to me this late into the run. I hope this isn't just a blip. Let's see what the rest of the week brings.

Shang-Chi Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

437

2082

20.99%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

382

1526

25.03%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2064	274	18046	11.44%	15	114

 

Showings added: 20

Seats added: 1100

 

AMCs sold	1365
Cinemarks sold	257
Regals sold	325
Harkins sold	117

 

Black Widow comp: 7.78M

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 8.15M

Fast 9 comp: 11.68M

Suicide Squad comp: 11.37M

 

So like I was thinking might happen, today had a small acceleration from yesterday. Still an increase on the comp though, and with the adjusted BW comp, 9M is still within range. And just FYI, I copied @Porthos' homework with the Ontario adjustment(divided by .955)

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

By the way forgot to ask this a while back but does the MTC data include people that rent out a full theatre for the $200-300? Or are you unable to track that? @keysersoze123 @Menor

 

Because it seems to be a somewhat popular thing to do to make sure that people know who will be in the theatre with them with Delta concerns. 

We used to track that but it hasn't really made a difference to BO for a while.

[Jamiem]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

We used to track that but it hasn't really made a difference to BO for a while.

Fair enough, thanks for the reply.

 

I guess if it surprises to the upside it could be a factor along with a stronger Canadian performance. 

[Porthos]

*checks something unrelated*

 

 

Ummmm....

 

WHEN DID SHANG-CHI GET AN EARLY ACCESS SHOWING?????

 

(Just saw a 5pm showing over at Cen Arden labeled "Early Access")\

 

EDIT:::

 

Not showing up on Fandango, so that would explain why I never noticed it. 

 

Has this been a Cinemark exclusive all along and no one told me???

Edited August 31, 2021 by Porthos

[Menor the Destroyer]

9 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Shang-Chi Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

437

2082

20.99%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

382

1526

25.03%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2064	274	18046	11.44%	15	114

 

Showings added: 20

Seats added: 1100

 

AMCs sold	1365
Cinemarks sold	257
Regals sold	325
Harkins sold	117

 

Black Widow comp: 7.78M

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 8.15M

Fast 9 comp: 11.68M

Suicide Squad comp: 11.37M

 

So like I was thinking might happen, today had a small acceleration from yesterday. Still an increase on the comp though, and with the adjusted BW comp, 9M is still within range. And just FYI, I copied @Porthos' homework with the Ontario adjustment(divided by .955)

I think it's normalization after yesterday seemed a bit too good to be true (86% of BW's pace was too big). Probably will trend better tomorrow. 

[Legion Again]

Been on the good day-bad day seesaw for quite a while now. Using a 2-day moving average would probably stabilize a lot of analysis.    
 

Of course if Th ends up as a bad day per pattern that would kind of outweigh everything else 😆

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Been on the good day-bad day seesaw for quite a while now. Using a 2-day moving average would probably stabilize a lot of analysis.    
 

Of course if Th ends up as a bad day per pattern that would kind of outweigh everything else 😆

Sunday and Monday were both good overall. I suspect today won't be a bad day either based on my intermediate runs at MTC2.

Edited August 31, 2021 by Menor

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

*checks something unrelated*

 

 

Ummmm....

 

WHEN DID SHANG-CHI GET AN EARLY ACCESS SHOWING?????

 

(Just saw a 5pm showing over at Cen Arden labeled "Early Access")\

 

EDIT:::

 

Not showing up on Fandango, so that would explain why I never noticed it. 

 

Has this been a Cinemark exclusive all along and no one told me???

 

I'll do a more through scan tonight, but it looks like Century Arden has the only Early Access showing of Shang-Chi in the entire region.  I'll double check Regals tonight.

 

I'll add it to the comp, but not as part of today's sales.

 

Not gonna bump things up too much as it's presently only 48 tickets sold, but I don't want to muck with the day-to-day analysis too much by claiming it as part of today's sales.

[YM!]

Will post my local theater comparisons for Shang Chi later tonight as it’s been a while since I did theater tracking since the pandemic hit.

[keysersoze123]

22 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

By the way forgot to ask this a while back but does the MTC data include people that rent out a full theatre for the $200-300? Or are you unable to track that? @keysersoze123 @Menor

 

Because it seems to be a somewhat popular thing to do to make sure that people know who will be in the theatre with them with Delta concerns. 

I think private theater rentals are no longer relevant. There are few shows but wont make a big difference to overall BO. During Zilla vs Kong days, it was very big with 1000's of Private shows selling out.