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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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2 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Guys Shang chi is KILLING it in Canada. Over 1M in pre-sales for the weekend, that’s more than BW had at this point.

I think it will overindex in Canada, but wasn’t there dramatically more restrictions (and full on shutdowns) for BW?

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Shang-Chi counted today at 9am EST (a bit earlier than usual) for Thursday, September 2:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 491 (8 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24):
566 (10 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 106 (5 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9):
37 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11):
150 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 767 (13 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal):
1.049 (24 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 3.166.
Up 23.5% since Monday. I expected a little bit more but SC is doing better than e.g. TSS which jumped just 19.5% from Monday to Wednesday (and on a way lower level where better percentages are easier to achieve).
Comps: TSS had on Wednesday 1.656 sold tickets in the same 7 theaters. Means Shang-Chi = 1.91x TSS = 7.8M Thursday previews at the moment. On Monday it were 7.6M in comparison so a slight increase.
Birds of Prey's final Thursday number (4M in previews), counted on the same day = on Thursday, was 2.085. So Shang-Chi = 1.52x BoP with one day left to increase the margin. My very conservative guess would be 7M tomorrow but I hope for rather 8M.
AQP II had on Wednesday for Thursday 1.209 sold tickets = 12.6M for SC. That comp went - absolutely expected - down. AQP II finally (=on Thursday for Thursday) had 1.582 sold tickets which means SC already doubled that number and will stay above 10M in comparison.
And a bit older film which isn't the best comp, It 2 (10.5M previews), had on the same day and in the same 7 theaters 2.627 sold tickets = also 12.6M.

Tomorrow I count both days and hope it works (many annoying error reports today, but that often happens with big films).

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NYC Local Mon   Tues   Wed   Thur   Previews Start
Shang-Chi 190/1402 (5pm) 234/1402 (5pm) 331/1402 (5pm)       6:00 PM
X-Men: DP     103/942 (4pm) 209/942 (3:15pm) 272/942 (3:45pm) $5m 6:00 PM
Joker 328/3536 (4:20pm) 399/3536 (4pm) 542/3536 (4pm) 760/3741 (3:45pm) $13.3m 4:00 PM
Birds Of Prey 71/1844 (5pm) 84/1844 (7:30pm) 106/1844 (7:45pm) 166/1844 (5pm) $4m 6:00 PM
Black Widow 239/3584 (5pm)     326/3584 (5pm)     $13.2m 5:00 PM
Hobbs & Shaw 60/1543 (5:20pm)     181/1543 (4pm)     $5.8m 7:00 PM
The Suicide Squad 52/1242 (6pm) 58/1242 (6pm) 79/1242 (6pm) 153/1242 (6:15pm) $4.2m 7:00 PM

 

 

Numbers are all over the place.  Though you can see that BW while only 60% of Joker on Wed did only 100k less on Thursday. X-Men was 62% higher than Shazam (not on chart but did 129 on Wed) and finished Thur previews 18% lower, 97% higher than BOP but only 20% higher in previews so like Joker it was very pre-sale heavy.

 

COMPS

BW:  $13.4m
Shazam!: $15.14
X-Men: DP - $7.92m
BOP: $13.49m
TSS: $17.6m
H&S: $10.6m
Joker: $8.12m

 

So discarding Joker and & X-Men on the low end and H&S as more walk up heavy  I'm left with BW the younger skewing Shazam! and 2 R Rated films that span $13.4m-17.6m :unsure:

 

SC is probably over indexing at my theater.  The neighborhood is 15%+ Asian American and the major adjoining one 35%+.  But even if we knock off 30% then SC is looking at a $9.38m at the low end

 

Theater has not added screens for the previews but has upped Friday and w/e from 18 to 26 screens

 

Edited by TalismanRing
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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Shang-Chi Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total 437 2082 20.99%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 382 1526 25.03%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
2064 274 18046 11.44% 15 114

 

Showings added: 20

Seats added: 1100

 

AMCs sold 1365
Cinemarks sold 257
Regals sold 325
Harkins sold 117

 

Black Widow comp: 7.78M

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 8.15M

Fast 9 comp: 11.68M

Suicide Squad comp: 11.37M

 

So like I was thinking might happen, today had a small acceleration from yesterday. Still an increase on the comp though, and with the adjusted BW comp, 9M is still within range. And just FYI, I copied @Porthos' homework with the Ontario adjustment(divided by .955)

Shang-Chi Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total 490 2126 23.05%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 419 1526 27.46%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
2377 311 19023 12.50% 15 121

 

Showings added: 7

Seats added: 977

 

AMCs sold 1525
Cinemarks sold 314
Regals sold 389
Harkins sold 149

 

Black Widow comp: 7.72M

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 8.08M

Fast 9 comp: 10.98M

Suicide Squad comp: 10.85M

 

Again not much acceleration. Was hoping for more. Only 55% of BW's pace today. Has to go 1.74x from today until final tomorrow for the adjusted comp to reach 9M. But even if that comp doesn't reach 9M, there should still be a chance with overindexing from Canada and other regions.

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2 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Again not much acceleration. Was hoping for more. Only 55% of BW's pace today. Has to go 1.74x from today until final tomorrow for the adjusted comp to reach 9M. But even if that comp doesn't reach 9M, there should still be a chance with overindexing from Canada and other regions.

 

BW comp went down slightly, in fact.

 

And I'm not too surprised as I'm seeing a sub-regional split within my own market when it comes to what is over-performing and what isn't.  One of the reasons I like tracking as many places as I do as I get a pretty nice mix of demos, even if it is still heavily weighted to a West Coast vibe.

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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Shang-Chi Megaplex

 

T-2 days Thursday: 2121(+317)/19574(+1076) in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 6.38M [4387(+608)]

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 6.68M

Fast 9 comp: 12.79M

 

T-3 days Friday: 1800(+352)/59082(+10428) in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 12.08M [3919(+630)]

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 12.65M

Fast 9 comp: 22.47M

Shang-Chi Megaplex

 

T-1 day Thursday: 2472(+351)/21146(+1572) in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 6.55M [4978(+591)]

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 6.86M

Fast 9 comp: 12.12M

 

T-2 days Friday: 2246(+446)/59082 in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 12.43M [4754(+835)]

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 13.02M

Fast 9 comp: 22.70M

 

Today's the last day of the F9 comp. Won't matter since I have a BW comp, but I was interested to see how that Friday would end up. It's been neck and neck with F9 for a few days.

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6 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

I was commenting on the relatively small acceleration in the daily pace, not the comps. 

 

Oh I realize that.  I was more making a supplemental point than anything else.

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12 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Suicide Squad: 2.2x

Fast 9(counted an hour early): 1.87x

Black Widow: 1.56x

 

It's also worth noting that I counted T-1 day for F9/BW at 1:30PM

Pretty close to national. I would expect Shang to come in right around that 1.75 mark, but we’ll see when we see.

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