The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Guys Shang chi is KILLING it in Canada. Over 1M in pre-sales for the weekend, that’s more than BW had at this point.

I think it will overindex in Canada, but wasn’t there dramatically more restrictions (and full on shutdowns) for BW?

[keysersoze123]

Do we know what was Endgame's Canada OW?

 

Plus what is the potential for Shang Chi. Can it hit double digits in Canada over the weekend. I expect this to be big in Toronto/Vancouver areas where the chinese population should be big. 

[el sid]

Shang-Chi counted today at 9am EST (a bit earlier than usual) for Thursday, September 2:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 491 (8 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 566 (10 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 106 (5 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 37 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 150 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 767 (13 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.049 (24 showtimes)
 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 3.166.
Up 23.5% since Monday. I expected a little bit more but SC is doing better than e.g. TSS which jumped just 19.5% from Monday to Wednesday (and on a way lower level where better percentages are easier to achieve).
Comps: TSS had on Wednesday 1.656 sold tickets in the same 7 theaters. Means Shang-Chi = 1.91x TSS = 7.8M Thursday previews at the moment. On Monday it were 7.6M in comparison so a slight increase.
Birds of Prey's final Thursday number (4M in previews), counted on the same day = on Thursday, was 2.085. So Shang-Chi = 1.52x BoP with one day left to increase the margin. My very conservative guess would be 7M tomorrow but I hope for rather 8M.
AQP II had on Wednesday for Thursday 1.209 sold tickets = 12.6M for SC. That comp went - absolutely expected - down. AQP II finally (=on Thursday for Thursday) had 1.582 sold tickets which means SC already doubled that number and will stay above 10M in comparison.
And a bit older film which isn't the best comp, It 2 (10.5M previews), had on the same day and in the same 7 theaters 2.627 sold tickets = also 12.6M.

Tomorrow I count both days and hope it works (many annoying error reports today, but that often happens with big films).

[AdrianL]

All the reports are encouraging. Very much hope to see this do at least 65m for the 3-day, annoying some people saying this is a "niche film for MCU yeesh

[DAJK]

10 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

I think it will overindex in Canada, but wasn’t there dramatically more restrictions (and full on shutdowns) for BW?

Yes but I’m accounting for that

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Yes but I’m accounting for that

[TwoMisfits]

FYI - Atom released a $5 off any movie for Labor Day weekend (if you use your Amazon Pay) this morning - so as always, this may have some effect on MTC1/2, although less b/c it's not movie specific...

[Legion Again]

Hey @charlie Jatinder how is Canada IM usually compared to USA?

[DAJK]

3 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Hey @charlie Jatinder how is Canada IM usually compared to USA?

Since the reopening it’s been about the same, if not just ever so slightly better.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Malignant tickets on sale. No Thursday previews. Card Counter also on sale at AMC

[TalismanRing]

NYC Local	Mon		Tues		Wed		Thur		Previews	Start
Shang-Chi	190/1402	(5pm)	234/1402	(5pm)	331/1402	(5pm)				6:00 PM
X-Men: DP			103/942	(4pm)	209/942	(3:15pm)	272/942	(3:45pm)	$5m	6:00 PM
Joker	328/3536	(4:20pm)	399/3536	(4pm)	542/3536	(4pm)	760/3741	(3:45pm)	$13.3m	4:00 PM
Birds Of Prey	71/1844	(5pm)	84/1844	(7:30pm)	106/1844	(7:45pm)	166/1844	(5pm)	$4m	6:00 PM
Black Widow	239/3584	(5pm)			326/3584	(5pm)			$13.2m	5:00 PM
Hobbs & Shaw	60/1543	(5:20pm)			181/1543	(4pm)			$5.8m	7:00 PM
The Suicide Squad	52/1242	(6pm)	58/1242	(6pm)	79/1242	(6pm)	153/1242	(6:15pm)	$4.2m	7:00 PM

 

 

Numbers are all over the place.  Though you can see that BW while only 60% of Joker on Wed did only 100k less on Thursday. X-Men was 62% higher than Shazam (not on chart but did 129 on Wed) and finished Thur previews 18% lower, 97% higher than BOP but only 20% higher in previews so like Joker it was very pre-sale heavy.

 

COMPS

BW:  $13.4m
Shazam!: $15.14
X-Men: DP - $7.92m
BOP: $13.49m
TSS: $17.6m
H&S: $10.6m
Joker: $8.12m

 

So discarding Joker and & X-Men on the low end and H&S as more walk up heavy  I'm left with BW the younger skewing Shazam! and 2 R Rated films that span $13.4m-17.6m

 

SC is probably over indexing at my theater.  The neighborhood is 15%+ Asian American and the major adjoining one 35%+.  But even if we knock off 30% then SC is looking at a $9.38m at the low end

 

Theater has not added screens for the previews but has upped Friday and w/e from 18 to 26 screens

 

Edited September 1, 2021 by TalismanRing

[Jamiem]

As I said earlier in the thread Canada has a lot going for it between large Chinese communities in Toronto/Vancouver, Simu being Canadian and Kim's Convenience being a massive local TV show there. 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Shang-Chi Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

437

2082

20.99%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

382

1526

25.03%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2064	274	18046	11.44%	15	114

 

Showings added: 20

Seats added: 1100

 

AMCs sold	1365
Cinemarks sold	257
Regals sold	325
Harkins sold	117

 

Black Widow comp: 7.78M

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 8.15M

Fast 9 comp: 11.68M

Suicide Squad comp: 11.37M

 

So like I was thinking might happen, today had a small acceleration from yesterday. Still an increase on the comp though, and with the adjusted BW comp, 9M is still within range. And just FYI, I copied @Porthos' homework with the Ontario adjustment(divided by .955)

Shang-Chi Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

490

2126

23.05%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

419

1526

27.46%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2377	311	19023	12.50%	15	121

 

Showings added: 7

Seats added: 977

 

AMCs sold	1525
Cinemarks sold	314
Regals sold	389
Harkins sold	149

 

Black Widow comp: 7.72M

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 8.08M

Fast 9 comp: 10.98M

Suicide Squad comp: 10.85M

 

Again not much acceleration. Was hoping for more. Only 55% of BW's pace today. Has to go 1.74x from today until final tomorrow for the adjusted comp to reach 9M. But even if that comp doesn't reach 9M, there should still be a chance with overindexing from Canada and other regions.

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Has to go 1.74x from today until final tomorrow for the adjusted comp to reach 9M.

What did the comps do for final day multiplier?

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Again not much acceleration. Was hoping for more. Only 55% of BW's pace today. Has to go 1.74x from today until final tomorrow for the adjusted comp to reach 9M. But even if that comp doesn't reach 9M, there should still be a chance with overindexing from Canada and other regions.

 

BW comp went down slightly, in fact.

 

And I'm not too surprised as I'm seeing a sub-regional split within my own market when it comes to what is over-performing and what isn't.  One of the reasons I like tracking as many places as I do as I get a pretty nice mix of demos, even if it is still heavily weighted to a West Coast vibe.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Shang-Chi Megaplex

 

T-2 days Thursday: 2121(+317)/19574(+1076) in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 6.38M [4387(+608)]

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 6.68M

Fast 9 comp: 12.79M

 

T-3 days Friday: 1800(+352)/59082(+10428) in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 12.08M [3919(+630)]

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 12.65M

Fast 9 comp: 22.47M

Shang-Chi Megaplex

 

T-1 day Thursday: 2472(+351)/21146(+1572) in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 6.55M [4978(+591)]

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 6.86M

Fast 9 comp: 12.12M

 

T-2 days Friday: 2246(+446)/59082 in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 12.43M [4754(+835)]

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 13.02M

Fast 9 comp: 22.70M

 

Today's the last day of the F9 comp. Won't matter since I have a BW comp, but I was interested to see how that Friday would end up. It's been neck and neck with F9 for a few days.

[Inceptionzq]

21 minutes ago, Porthos said:

BW comp went down slightly, in fact.

I was commenting on the relatively small acceleration in the daily pace, not the comps. 

[Inceptionzq]

24 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

What did the comps do for final day multiplier?

Suicide Squad: 2.2x

Fast 9(counted an hour early): 1.87x

Black Widow: 1.56x

 

It's also worth noting that I counted T-1 day for F9/BW at 1:30PM

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

I was commenting on the relatively small acceleration in the daily pace, not the comps. 

 

Oh I realize that.  I was more making a supplemental point than anything else.

[Legion Again]

12 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Suicide Squad: 2.2x

Fast 9(counted an hour early): 1.87x

Black Widow: 1.56x

 

It's also worth noting that I counted T-1 day for F9/BW at 1:30PM

Pretty close to national. I would expect Shang to come in right around that 1.75 mark, but we’ll see when we see.