The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

36 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Based on how the next week or two go for me in regards to college, I might start tracking the AMC Metreon 16 and a couple other Bay Area cinemas, starting with No Time to Die. Don't know if there's anyone else here already tracking this area tho. 

There are 3 REGALs in Bay Area. Those may be better addition since we are tracking entirety of MTC1 anyways.

[lorddemaxus]

9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

There are 3 REGALs in Bay Area. Those may be better addition since we are tracking entirety of MTC1 anyways.

So I did think of tracking the Regal UA on the street I live on before but they don't do reserved seating (at least didn't for the movies I went to but I'll check again) I think so no clue how I'd track that. I'll check out the other two.

[charlie Jatinder]

22 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Shang Chi Harkins T-2 Days

 

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	157	41,462	2,333	5.63%	$27,307	$11.70
Cine 1	16	4,818	1,412	29.31%	$21,762	$15.41
Cine Capri	4	1,782	172	9.65%	$2,364	$13.74
IMAX	2	890	247	27.75%	$3,705	$15.00
Total	179	48,952	4,164	8.51%	$55,138	$13.24

 

Sold 733 seats today. Unfortunately I don't have any comps for BW. I have some CA comps will post them. The target is $170K GROSS final now. Onward to that.

 

Since CA is over indexing this comp don't really matter much but here we go.

 

3.19x of The Suicide Squad Tracked Gross - $13.08M

 

Shang Chi Harkins T-1 Day

 

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	167	42,850	3,308	7.72%	$38,515	$11.64
Cine 1	16	4,818	1,628	33.79%	$25,010	$15.36
Cine Capri	4	1,782	193	10.83%	$2,661	$13.79
IMAX	2	890	272	30.56%	$4,080	$15.00
Total	189	50,340	5,401	10.73%	$70,266	$13.01

 

First off this is around 22.5 hours worth of day from yesterday, which apparently might have added 100-150 seats more if I took it an hour later.

 

Sold 1237 seats. I had put target of 1200 which it crossed easily. Unfortunately I don't have BW comp but can probably expect 2.5x PSm for $175K plus final in Harkins. We will see. 

 

2.97x of The Suicide Squad Tracked Gross - $12.2M

 

I am thinking Harkins will suggest $9.5-10M eventually tomorrow.

 

Edit: Side note, one theater doing exceedingly well, Cerritos 16. Cerritos has 59% of its population Asian, I suppose most of them would be Chinese. I will probably ignore this one while comparing with BW tomorrow.

Edited September 2, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

Per MTC tracking

THU - $5.3M

FRI - $5.6M

SAT - $3.3M

Rest - $2.6M

 

Total - $16.8M

 

At same time THU

66% of Black Widow - $8.8M 

271% of The Suicide Squad - $11.1M

 

Average - $9.95M

 

At same time FRI

68% of Black Widow - $17.85M

 

Can expect $19M+ FRI. Looking GOOD.

 

Edit 1: I was looking at few numbers for MTC final day projection, those suggested more like $9M previews than $9.5-10M I was hoping for. Of course they mean nothing when we will have actual numbers later in the day.

Edited September 2, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I'm going 10 Thursday, why not. The sales I'm seeing here for XD and Dolby are very strong. 

[Legion Again]

Mentioned this is club thread, but currently expecting Fri PS to be at 87% of Th on the final update tomorrow, and then go about 2.55x PSm (this can be argued a little optimistic). That would give Friday as 2.2 or so of Th. From current 9.4 preview thoughts would get you 20.7M, and using my optimistic expectations for good reception and daily bumps/drops about 10.25x IM and 96M weekend. With 9 previews and more conservative 2.43x PSm+ 4x true IM would be looking like 19 Fri, 85M 4day. We could get even lower of course but that’s where we start to need at least one factor to trend poorly.   
 

Optimistic case I guess 9.8*10.4 is 102.

Edited September 2, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[Porthos]

On 8/31/2021 at 11:07 PM, Porthos said:

 

Shang-Chi and the Legends of the Ten Rings 

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	183	21325	24604	3279	13.33%

 

Early Access Show Added	1
Early Access Seats Added	118
Early Access Seats Already Sold	48

 

Total Showings Added Today	26
Total Seats Added Today	2634
Total Seats Sold Today	490

 

Total Seats Sold Added to Total

538

 

T-2 Comp

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	56.53		706	5800		0/241	25079/30879	18.78%		7.81m
TSS	308.76		167	1062		0/105	15390/16452	6.46%		12.96m

COMP NOTE: The BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955). The TSS Comp has not been adjusted.

 

Regal: 725/7155 [10.13% sold] [+153 tickets]

 

===

 

As discussed a bit up thread, I discovered that at least some Cinemark locations (probably a very very few of them) are having a Early Access showing at 5pm, and Century Arden is one of them.  At the time I spotted it, it had sold 48/118 tickets and so I put that information in a separate block.

 

All other screenings contributed 490 tickets sold, which means that Shang-Chi's tickets sold on T-2 was 69% of Black Widow's T-2 tickets sold.

 

So, yes, it was a very nice day locally.  Still thinking mid to low 8's as a local comp, but we'll see what the last two days bring.

 

Shang-Chi and the Legends of the Ten Rings 

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	188	20777	24985	4208	16.84%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	1
Total Showings Added Today	5
Total Seats Added Today	381
Total Seats Sold Today	929

 

T-1 Comp

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	60.60		1144	6944		0/258	25357/32301	21.50%		8.38m
TSS	313.33		281	1343		0/107	15221/16564	8.11%		13.16m

COMP NOTE: The BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955). The TSS Comp has not been adjusted.

 

Regal: 974/7536 [12.92% sold] [+249 tickets]

 

===

 

Yeah, okay.  That was a little better of a day. 👍 Shang-Chi did 81% of Black Widow's T-1.  All those showtimes of the last couple of days started to fill up.

 

Will this cross 9m?  Tune in tomorrow/much later today.

 

NB:  Apologies for being late, but I got sucked into a movie (Knives Out really is a great film, you know, even on the xth re-watch) so I started late.  But then Fandango started to give me a ton of shit.  Don't know if it was some sort of flood control or broken cookies or what.  But I got so many errors I had to go to various corporate sites, which slowed me down a ton.  Then I had some things to do for about 45 minutes before I could sit down and write this all down.

 

Good things come to those who wait, I suppose. 👍

Edited September 2, 2021 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

On 9/1/2021 at 1:53 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Before posting Harkins, Sacramento chart

As can be seen that, unlike BW where T-2 day was well short of first day of sales, SC has reached its first day of sale like F9. Now let's see if its flat tomorrow like F9 or jump like BW, I suppose/hope the latter. Say 850 tomorrow and 2.1k on final day for total of 6.3k as against 9.2k of BW and 4.4k of F9.

I suppose being a bit late made it slightly higher but I guess 850 would have been done anyways. Now to 2.1k tomorrow.

[Legion Again]

My god, it’s so late in our time zone I assumed you had already posted
 

Anyway lovely day, regionals with atp adjustment seem like they’re heading toward the 9-10 zone just like MTCs.

 

Edit: from the reacts I see we have plenty of pacific nightbirds here!

Edited September 2, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I suppose being a bit late made it slightly higher but I guess 850 would have been done anyways. Now to 2.1k tomorrow.

 

Sacramento is a real bedroom community, so I doubt there are many sales post 10pm, even on the night before opening.   That's why I wasn't sweating starting late.

 

As it was, the sample was from about 11:30pm to 12:45am instead of 10:00pm to 10:50pm or so (like I said, Fandango fucking with me caused me no end of headaches).

 

Just didn't have time to write it up until just now.

[Cap]

21 minutes ago, Porthos said:

NB:  Apologies for being late, but I got sucked into a movie (Knives Out really is a great film, you know, even on the xth re-watch)

[Borobudur]

14 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Sacramento is a real bedroom community, so I doubt there are many sales post 10pm, even on the night before opening.   That's why I wasn't sweating starting late.

 

As it was, the sample was from about 11:30pm to 12:45am instead of 10:00pm to 10:50pm or so (like I said, Fandango fucking with me caused me no end of headaches).

 

Just didn't have time to write it up until just now.

I didn't know American are this early-bedtime, in my country, 1100pm showtimes can still selling hot like peak hour 

[Porthos]

Just now, Cap said:

 

Sometimes I leave little things here and there on the forum for folks to find, yes.

 

(what's the fun in tagging you when you can find it out on your own, right? 👍)

[Porthos]

Just now, Borobudur said:

I didn't know American are this early-bedtime, in my country, 1100pm showtimes can still selling hot like peak hour 

 

I said "Sacramento is a bedroom community".

 

We're not quite as bad about it as we once were, but we're not a hustling, bustling 24/7 kind of town, either.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	58	8,470	715	89	8.44%
		Phoenix	7	50	7,146	871	139	12.19%
		Raleigh	8	37	4,259	863	126	20.26%
	Shang-Chi Total		21	145	19,875	2,449	354	12.32%

 

Pretty good day considering yesterday being down.  Continues to slowly gain on BW while dropping against F9 as those comps converge.  A few theaters added a ton of shows while most kept the same amount.  I get the feeling that SC won't get nearly the number of shows that BW had; not sure how much that will hinder box office.  In $ sales, BW was ahead at this point $61,159 to $32,973. I'm still leaning on the conservative side of predictions with 7.5-8m at this point. 

 

Comps

BW - .52x (6.91m)

F9 - 1.12x (7.97m)

TSS - 2.56x (10.48m)

 

Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	59	8,533	930	215	10.90%
	Phoenix	7	51	7,193	1,087	216	15.11%
	Raleigh	8	39	4,408	995	132	22.57%
Shang-Chi Total		21	149	20,134	3,012	563	14.96%

 

Well, this was the first step backward for SC.  Not only did it lose ground on BW for the first time, but it also fell behind F9 in total sales.  Its +23% increase wasn't too far off BW's pace of +24%, but others had much better days on Wednesday (F9 +40%, TSS +32%)

 

Comps

BW - .52x (6.86m)

F9 - .985x (6.99m)

TSS - 2.38x (9.75m)

 

[el sid]

6 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

So I did think of tracking the Regal UA on the street I live on before but they don't do reserved seating (at least didn't for the movies I went to but I'll check again) I think so no clue how I'd track that. I'll check out the other two.

Yes, that's better because one of my theaters is the Metreon 16 . I once tracked the AMC Bay Street 16 (I think that was the name) recommended by @keysersoze and would have some older comps but Regal theaters could be more helpful.

[Menor the Destroyer]

20 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	59	8,533	930	215	10.90%
	Phoenix	7	51	7,193	1,087	216	15.11%
	Raleigh	8	39	4,408	995	132	22.57%
Shang-Chi Total		21	149	20,134	3,012	563	14.96%

 

Well, this was the first step backward for SC.  Not only did it lose ground on BW for the first time, but it also fell behind F9 in total sales.  Its +23% increase wasn't too far off BW's pace of +24%, but others had much better days on Wednesday (F9 +40%, TSS +32%)

 

Comps

BW - .52x (6.86m)

F9 - .985x (6.99m)

TSS - 2.38x (9.75m)

 

This is all over the place lol. Hopefully the final day boosts it a good bit vs BW. Though I think it's underperforming in your theaters anyway but would still like to see that raw tickets comp over 7m.

Edited September 2, 2021 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

This is all over the place lol. Hopefully the final day boosts it a good bit vs BW. Though I think it's underperforming in your theaters anyway but would still like to see that raw tickets comp over 7m.

Raleigh seems to be taking others down, probably weather had to do something with it. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

I'm honestly expecting the film to somewhat underperform because of all the flooding happening in the US. All we can hope now is that studios don't panic and start delaying movies again.

[keysersoze123]

On 6/24/2021 at 10:34 AM, Menor said:

Morning update: F9 is currently at 66904 tickets sold for Thursday. Added 9k since last night. About 6k of that came during the late night/early morning hours, while it did about 3k just in the past hour and a half. 

SC morning @ 65233/437839 880471.65 3239 shows. if I am not wrong F9 finished around 133K. Let us see where SC ends up at. 

 

MTC1 @ 109744/497265 1751331.48 2965 shows. Thinking 180K finish. 

 

Adding BW update in the morning. it added 81K till my evening update around 8PM CST(or just before that). 

 

 

 

Edited September 2, 2021 by keysersoze123