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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Shang-Chi and the Legends of the Ten Rings 

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [12:00pm - 12:55pm]

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

1

192

20608

25450

4842

19.03%

 

Total Showings Added Since Last Night

4

Total Seats Added Today

465

Total Seats Sold Today

634

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Comp

 

   %

 

Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

BW

61.80

 

891

7835

 

0/258

24466/32301

24.26%

 

8.54m

TSS

289.94

 

327

1670

 

0/111

15173/16843

9.92%

 

12.18m

COMP NOTE: The BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955). The TSS Comp has not been adjusted.

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Adjusted Comp

 

   %

 

Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

F9

127.61

 

491

3390

 

0/170

17331/20721

16.36%

 

9.49m

SC (adj)

---

 

559

4326

 

1/168

4326/21874

17.60%

 

---

COMP NOTE: The F9 Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955). The TSS Comp has not been adjusted.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  SC (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's track.

 

Regal: 1160/7883 [14.72% sold] [+186 tickets]

 

===

 

And back to 70% of BW, more or less.  At T-0 Mid-Day (samples taken at the same time), Shang-Chi did 71% of the same business that Black Widow did at the same time.  I strongly suspect it'll do in the same range the rest of the day.  Not too much more at any rate.

 

As expected, The Suicide Squad comps is finally starting to drop through the floor.  It did underperform here (or at least the Sacto region might have normalized with the rest of the country), so expect that comp to come in high even at final bell.

 

Finally, put in a F9 comp for shits and giggles.  It too should drop considering the comparative sales patterns at play so, keep that in mind.

 

If SC does 70% of BW the rest of today (before stop of tracking), that'd be about 950 tickets sold which would bring the comp to 8.7m, which all things considered would be a fantastic result IMO.

 

To hit 9m, need about 1100 tickets sold between now and end of tracking, or about 80% of BW's sales over the same time period.  It's done that on occasion, but I wouldn't call it either a sure thing or a none-chance.  Just have to see what actually happens between now and then.

Are you planning on taking the final update for SC before first shows start or at the same time as BW? 

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4 minutes ago, Menor said:

Are you planning on taking the final update for SC before first shows start or at the same time as BW? 

 

I took the BW sample from 4:20 - 5:20 and I'm planning on taking the SC sample around 4:30 - 5:30 or 4:40 - 5:40.

 

A negligible amount of difference, IMO.

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MTC2 was at 76903 in my last run. F9 at a comparable point was 74649. I don't have a proper comparison for BW yet. I would say it's running at a good pace after the bad morning pace noted by Keyser. But the night will tell the tale. 

Edited by Menor
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1 minute ago, Menor said:

MTC2 was at 76903 in my last run. F9 at a comparable point was 74649. I don't have a proper comparison for BW yet. I would say it's running at a good pace after the bad morning pace noted by Keyser. 

And F9 overperformed on MTC2 right?

 

Well that's good to hear, good that the bad pace was only in the morning. Maybe because of the last night events people wait a little more to buy tickets.

Edited by ThomasNicole
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4 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

And F9 overperformed on MTC2 right?

 

Well that's good to hear, good that the bad pace was only in the morning. Maybe because of the last night events people wait a little more to buy tickets.

Well we can't yet say that the bad pace was only from the morning. Night pace is crucial. That was where BW fell off a cliff after looking really good earlier. But yeah the afternoon pace is much better. I have a feeling that later preview start time + no summer played a factor in the bad morning pace.

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70% for 2nd half of day will be 8.7 before any atp adjustment, right porthos? I would definitely consider that Sacto pointing to over 9 in reality — though with cancelled showings in parts of northeast, all other regions may turn in more of a regional overperformance than expected Tuesday. Philly+MTCs will tell the tale.    
 

I just woke up and read through the thread…

 

donald glover pizza GIF

 

…as the board member with perhaps the highest expectations for Shang-Chi just gotta say “LOL” at the proclivity for mass hysteria around here. Even if ida pushes this to 7 previews or something, that will be absolutely fine. The business mostly just moves to later days and inflates the IM. Perhaps 7*11 in a negative case? I would personally be fine with that given external circumstances, and the industry will consider Ida as well if need be when evaluating the performance. Everything is fine.

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3 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

70% for 2nd half of day will be 8.7 before any atp adjustment, right porthos?

 

32 minutes ago, Porthos said:

If SC does 70% of BW the rest of today (before stop of tracking), that'd be about 950 tickets sold which would bring the comp to 8.7m, which all things considered would be a fantastic result IMO.

 

To hit 9m, need about 1100 tickets sold between now and end of tracking, or about 80% of BW's sales over the same time period.  It's done that on occasion, but I wouldn't call it either a sure thing or a none-chance.  Just have to see what actually happens between now and then.

 

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3 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Right, what I wanted to confirm was the before any atp adjustments. I know you said a while ago that you might try to incorporate that sort of thing at final bell. Pretty sure you mean 8.7 before but wanted to get totally clear.

I'll only make that sort of adjustment when I make some sort of prediction from the raw numbers.

 

But I'm tempted not to make any atp adjustment given what's going on in parts of the northeast.  Or rather, consider them as balancing each other out somewhat.  Depend on my mood at the time.

 

But, yes.  That 8.7 had no ticket price adjustment.  Would have mentioned it if it had. :)

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3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

But I'm tempted not to make any atp adjustment given what's going on in parts of the northeast.  Or rather, consider them as balancing each other out somewhat.  Depend on my mood at the time.

Yeah, I’m not confined the actual number will be above the sacto ticket vs ticket anymore like it usually would be. 8.7 tonight would be a great result tonight with some regions depressed.

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16 minutes ago, dudalb said:

With people drowinng in NYC because of flooding, don't tell me Ida's devastating attack on the The Northeast , the single biggest US Market for movies ,is not to have an impact on box office. How big, who can say.

Things are looking very good for +9M less than 48 hours ago.

 

Maybe Ida will be the responsible for previews to get closer to 8-8.5M, let's see how it goes.

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Question is what would happen to tickets sold if people are not able to get to theaters. 

 

I looked at 10 theaters MTC1 in NYC(empire 25, lincoln, kips bay, 19th st, 34th, 84th st, village 7,magic johnson harlem, orpheum 7, newport 11) and its at 6427/18474 132074.13 110 shows. Let us see if it goes down if there are cancellations. 


Edit: Quick run in tad under 2 hours later is at 6482/18027 133663.48 105 shows. So 5 shows got removed though overall number still went up. 

Edited by keysersoze123
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51 minutes ago, Menor said:

MTC2 was at 76903 in my last run. F9 at a comparable point was 74649. I don't have a proper comparison for BW yet. I would say it's running at a good pace after the bad morning pace noted by Keyser. But the night will tell the tale. 

where do you see it finish. Your final update friday morning was 206K for BW. Can SC hit 125K at this pace?

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Final Update

 

Shang-Chi:

6:00 Dolby: 106/236 (-)

6:15 Open Caption: 6/40 (+2)

6:30 IMAX: 91/372 (+24)

7:00: 65/107 (+1)

7:15: 18/40 (+7)

7:30 3D: 16/107 (+4)

7:45: 9/40 (+9)

8:00: 22/107 (+15)

8:15: 12/77 (+12)

8:30: 13/107 (+13)

8:45: 2/40 (+2)

9:00: 6/77 (+4)

9:15: 16/40 (+11)

9:30 Dolby: 114/236 (+26)

9:45 IMAX: 18/372 (New; Standard show at this time was cancelled in favor of this)

Total: 514/1,958 (+148/+332)

 

Comps:

 

81% of Black Widow (10.7M)

186% of F9 (13M)

246% of AQP2 (11.8M)

352% of The Suicide Squad (14.4M)

 

Day-of sales definitely weren't as strong as Black Widow, but that also had an hour earlier start. With storm impacts and metro overindexing in mind, 8.7M is my prediction.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

where do you see it finish. Your final update friday morning was 206K for BW. Can SC hit 125K at this pace?

125k is probably the high-end finish if it can keep pace with F9 (it was not doing so in the morning but recovered in the afternoon). If it does very badly in night shows and plays like BW it will be 115k. Probably in between, around 120. 

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NYC Local Mon   Tues   Wed   Thur   Previews Start
Shang-Chi 190/1402 (5pm) 234/1402 (5pm) 331/1402 (5pm) 511/1402 (5pm)   6:00 PM
Shazam!         129/2229 (Afternoon) 187/2229 (3:30pm) $5.9m 4:00 PM
X-Men: DP     103/942 (4pm) 209/942 (3:15pm) 272/942 (3:45pm) $5m 6:00 PM
Hobbs & Shaw 60/1543 (5:20pm)     181/1543 (4pm)     $5.8m 7:00 PM
Joker 328/3536 (4:20pm) 399/3536 (4pm) 542/3536 (4pm) 760/3741 (3:45pm) $13.3m 4:00 PM
Birds Of Prey 71/1844 (5pm) 84/1844 (7:30pm) 106/1844 (7:45pm) 166/1844 (5pm) $4m 6:00 PM
Black Widow 239/3584 (5pm)     326/3584 (5pm)     $13.2m 5:00 PM
The Suicide Squad 52/1242 (6pm) 58/1242 (6pm) 79/1242 (6pm) 153/1242 (6:15pm) $4.2m 7:00 PM

 

54% jump. Early shows are filling up.  They should have added another show or two.  I don't know how lesser amt of preview showings/seats will impact walk up business

 

COMPS

Shazam!: $16.12
X-Men:DP - $9.39m
BOP: $12.31m
TSS: $14m
Joker: $8.94m

 

I don't have BW's Thur number but as of Wed it was only 60% of Joker (ended up 100k apart in previews) while SC is 67% on Thursday. 

 

Anyhow these avg out to about $12m even when I take away the high and low.

 

Again this theater serves neighborhoods that skew far more Asian American than the avg in America (15%+ & 35%+ vs 5.7%).  Though that's spread among Chinese, Korean, Indian, Philippines etc.   But even if I dock it 20% (which is too high IMO) that would mean about $9.6m

Edited by TalismanRing
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57 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Even if ida pushes this to 7 previews or something, that will be absolutely fine. 

Factoring in the higher ticket price 7 is less than half of BW. Even if it stopped selling tickets right now it probably wouldn't be far off 7. 

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