The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Shang-Chi and the Legends of the Ten Rings 

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [12:00pm - 12:55pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	192	20608	25450	4842	19.03%

 

Total Showings Added Since Last Night	4
Total Seats Added Today	465
Total Seats Sold Today	634

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Comp

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	61.80		891	7835		0/258	24466/32301	24.26%		8.54m
TSS	289.94		327	1670		0/111	15173/16843	9.92%		12.18m

COMP NOTE: The BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955). The TSS Comp has not been adjusted.

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	127.61		491	3390		0/170	17331/20721	16.36%		9.49m
SC (adj)	---		559	4326		1/168	4326/21874	17.60%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955). The TSS Comp has not been adjusted.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  SC (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's track.

 

Regal: 1160/7883 [14.72% sold] [+186 tickets]

 

===

 

And back to 70% of BW, more or less.  At T-0 Mid-Day (samples taken at the same time), Shang-Chi did 71% of the same business that Black Widow did at the same time.  I strongly suspect it'll do in the same range the rest of the day.  Not too much more at any rate.

 

As expected, The Suicide Squad comps is finally starting to drop through the floor.  It did underperform here (or at least the Sacto region might have normalized with the rest of the country), so expect that comp to come in high even at final bell.

 

Finally, put in a F9 comp for shits and giggles.  It too should drop considering the comparative sales patterns at play so, keep that in mind.

 

If SC does 70% of BW the rest of today (before stop of tracking), that'd be about 950 tickets sold which would bring the comp to 8.7m, which all things considered would be a fantastic result IMO.

 

To hit 9m, need about 1100 tickets sold between now and end of tracking, or about 80% of BW's sales over the same time period.  It's done that on occasion, but I wouldn't call it either a sure thing or a none-chance.  Just have to see what actually happens between now and then.

Are you planning on taking the final update for SC before first shows start or at the same time as BW? 

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

Are you planning on taking the final update for SC before first shows start or at the same time as BW? 

 

I took the BW sample from 4:20 - 5:20 and I'm planning on taking the SC sample around 4:30 - 5:30 or 4:40 - 5:40.

 

A negligible amount of difference, IMO.

[Ledmonkey96]

Don't have any comps but with 1:30min till the first showing the theater i work at is at 163 tickets out of 376. (1 large showing and 6 small showings)

[Menor the Destroyer]

MTC2 was at 76903 in my last run. F9 at a comparable point was 74649. I don't have a proper comparison for BW yet. I would say it's running at a good pace after the bad morning pace noted by Keyser. But the night will tell the tale. 

Edited September 2, 2021 by Menor

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

MTC2 was at 76903 in my last run. F9 at a comparable point was 74649. I don't have a proper comparison for BW yet. I would say it's running at a good pace after the bad morning pace noted by Keyser. 

And F9 overperformed on MTC2 right?

 

Well that's good to hear, good that the bad pace was only in the morning. Maybe because of the last night events people wait a little more to buy tickets.

Edited September 2, 2021 by ThomasNicole

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

And F9 overperformed on MTC2 right?

 

Well that's good to hear, good that the bad pace was only in the morning. Maybe because of the last night events people wait a little more to buy tickets.

Well we can't yet say that the bad pace was only from the morning. Night pace is crucial. That was where BW fell off a cliff after looking really good earlier. But yeah the afternoon pace is much better. I have a feeling that later preview start time + no summer played a factor in the bad morning pace.

[Legion Again]

70% for 2nd half of day will be 8.7 before any atp adjustment, right porthos? I would definitely consider that Sacto pointing to over 9 in reality — though with cancelled showings in parts of northeast, all other regions may turn in more of a regional overperformance than expected Tuesday. Philly+MTCs will tell the tale.    
 

I just woke up and read through the thread…

 

 

…as the board member with perhaps the highest expectations for Shang-Chi just gotta say “LOL” at the proclivity for mass hysteria around here. Even if ida pushes this to 7 previews or something, that will be absolutely fine. The business mostly just moves to later days and inflates the IM. Perhaps 7*11 in a negative case? I would personally be fine with that given external circumstances, and the industry will consider Ida as well if need be when evaluating the performance. Everything is fine.

[dudalb]

With people drowinng in NYC because of flooding, don't tell me Ida's devastating attack on the The Northeast , the single biggest US Market for movies ,is not to have an impact on box office. How big, who can say.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

70% for 2nd half of day will be 8.7 before any atp adjustment, right porthos?

 

32 minutes ago, Porthos said:

If SC does 70% of BW the rest of today (before stop of tracking), that'd be about 950 tickets sold which would bring the comp to 8.7m, which all things considered would be a fantastic result IMO.

 

To hit 9m, need about 1100 tickets sold between now and end of tracking, or about 80% of BW's sales over the same time period.  It's done that on occasion, but I wouldn't call it either a sure thing or a none-chance.  Just have to see what actually happens between now and then.

 

[Legion Again]

Right, what I wanted to confirm was the before any atp adjustments. I know you said a while ago that you might try to incorporate that sort of thing at final bell. Pretty sure you mean 8.7 before but wanted to get totally clear.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Right, what I wanted to confirm was the before any atp adjustments. I know you said a while ago that you might try to incorporate that sort of thing at final bell. Pretty sure you mean 8.7 before but wanted to get totally clear.

I'll only make that sort of adjustment when I make some sort of prediction from the raw numbers.

 

But I'm tempted not to make any atp adjustment given what's going on in parts of the northeast.  Or rather, consider them as balancing each other out somewhat.  Depend on my mood at the time.

 

But, yes.  That 8.7 had no ticket price adjustment.  Would have mentioned it if it had.

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

But I'm tempted not to make any atp adjustment given what's going on in parts of the northeast.  Or rather, consider them as balancing each other out somewhat.  Depend on my mood at the time.

Yeah, I’m not confined the actual number will be above the sacto ticket vs ticket anymore like it usually would be. 8.7 tonight would be a great result tonight with some regions depressed.

[ThomasNicole]

16 minutes ago, dudalb said:

With people drowinng in NYC because of flooding, don't tell me Ida's devastating attack on the The Northeast , the single biggest US Market for movies ,is not to have an impact on box office. How big, who can say.

Things are looking very good for +9M less than 48 hours ago.

 

Maybe Ida will be the responsible for previews to get closer to 8-8.5M, let's see how it goes.

[keysersoze123]

Question is what would happen to tickets sold if people are not able to get to theaters. 

 

I looked at 10 theaters MTC1 in NYC(empire 25, lincoln, kips bay, 19th st, 34th, 84th st, village 7,magic johnson harlem, orpheum 7, newport 11) and its at 6427/18474 132074.13 110 shows. Let us see if it goes down if there are cancellations. 

Edit: Quick run in tad under 2 hours later is at 6482/18027 133663.48 105 shows. So 5 shows got removed though overall number still went up. 

Edited September 2, 2021 by keysersoze123

[keysersoze123]

51 minutes ago, Menor said:

MTC2 was at 76903 in my last run. F9 at a comparable point was 74649. I don't have a proper comparison for BW yet. I would say it's running at a good pace after the bad morning pace noted by Keyser. But the night will tell the tale. 

where do you see it finish. Your final update friday morning was 206K for BW. Can SC hit 125K at this pace?

[WrathOfHan]

Final Update

 

Shang-Chi:

6:00 Dolby: 106/236 (-)

6:15 Open Caption: 6/40 (+2)

6:30 IMAX: 91/372 (+24)

7:00: 65/107 (+1)

7:15: 18/40 (+7)

7:30 3D: 16/107 (+4)

7:45: 9/40 (+9)

8:00: 22/107 (+15)

8:15: 12/77 (+12)

8:30: 13/107 (+13)

8:45: 2/40 (+2)

9:00: 6/77 (+4)

9:15: 16/40 (+11)

9:30 Dolby: 114/236 (+26)

9:45 IMAX: 18/372 (New; Standard show at this time was cancelled in favor of this)

Total: 514/1,958 (+148/+332)

 

Comps:

 

81% of Black Widow (10.7M)

186% of F9 (13M)

246% of AQP2 (11.8M)

352% of The Suicide Squad (14.4M)

 

Day-of sales definitely weren't as strong as Black Widow, but that also had an hour earlier start. With storm impacts and metro overindexing in mind, 8.7M is my prediction.

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

where do you see it finish. Your final update friday morning was 206K for BW. Can SC hit 125K at this pace?

125k is probably the high-end finish if it can keep pace with F9 (it was not doing so in the morning but recovered in the afternoon). If it does very badly in night shows and plays like BW it will be 115k. Probably in between, around 120. 

[TalismanRing]

NYC Local	Mon		Tues		Wed		Thur		Previews	Start
Shang-Chi	190/1402	(5pm)	234/1402	(5pm)	331/1402	(5pm)	511/1402	(5pm)		6:00 PM
Shazam!					129/2229	(Afternoon)	187/2229	(3:30pm)	$5.9m	4:00 PM
X-Men: DP			103/942	(4pm)	209/942	(3:15pm)	272/942	(3:45pm)	$5m	6:00 PM
Hobbs & Shaw	60/1543	(5:20pm)			181/1543	(4pm)			$5.8m	7:00 PM
Joker	328/3536	(4:20pm)	399/3536	(4pm)	542/3536	(4pm)	760/3741	(3:45pm)	$13.3m	4:00 PM
Birds Of Prey	71/1844	(5pm)	84/1844	(7:30pm)	106/1844	(7:45pm)	166/1844	(5pm)	$4m	6:00 PM
Black Widow	239/3584	(5pm)			326/3584	(5pm)			$13.2m	5:00 PM
The Suicide Squad	52/1242	(6pm)	58/1242	(6pm)	79/1242	(6pm)	153/1242	(6:15pm)	$4.2m	7:00 PM

 

54% jump. Early shows are filling up.  They should have added another show or two.  I don't know how lesser amt of preview showings/seats will impact walk up business

 

COMPS

Shazam!: $16.12
X-Men:DP - $9.39m
BOP: $12.31m
TSS: $14m
Joker: $8.94m

 

I don't have BW's Thur number but as of Wed it was only 60% of Joker (ended up 100k apart in previews) while SC is 67% on Thursday. 

 

Anyhow these avg out to about $12m even when I take away the high and low.

 

Again this theater serves neighborhoods that skew far more Asian American than the avg in America (15%+ & 35%+ vs 5.7%).  Though that's spread among Chinese, Korean, Indian, Philippines etc.   But even if I dock it 20% (which is too high IMO) that would mean about $9.6m

Edited September 2, 2021 by TalismanRing

[Menor the Destroyer]

57 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Even if ida pushes this to 7 previews or something, that will be absolutely fine. 

Factoring in the higher ticket price 7 is less than half of BW. Even if it stopped selling tickets right now it probably wouldn't be far off 7. 

[Cmasterclay]

Wouldn't be stunned with any number between 6.5 and 10 at this point. Feels alot more uncertain than alot of the tracking you guys have done this summer (I mean that as a compliment - thread is down to a science).