The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

So 4255 in Megaplex. I will see how walkins in Harkins are, the PSm won't be same as Harkins but slightly lower may be. Say 1.3x gives 5.5k final admits aka $82K. In normal days that would mean $8.2-9M, so slight under indexing, not much.

 

But let's see how walkins are at Harkins or if we can get numbers for MTC 1 & 2 right now, can compare with those.

[ThomasNicole]

17 minutes ago, Eric and the Ten Rings said:

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	7	76	4751	14229	33.39%

 

Total Showings LOST Today: 17

Total Seats LOST Today: 2,026

Total Sellouts Added Today: 5

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,512

 

Comp

1.048x of F9 (7.44M)

0.626x of Black Widow (8.26M)

2.337x of The Suicide Squad (9.58M)

 

So yeah, the big issue, as somebody who dealt with the Noreaster, is that three different theaters were closed for the day, or at least seemed to. If you try and buy a ticket for them, you are unable to, which signals to me they weren't open at all. And while you can argue a lot of the sellouts and sales were just given to other theaters...losing three theaters is not a good thing, though I'm sure this is just an underindex. Either way, I do think the storm and floods will be an issue, at least for the first couple days of the weekend.

Thanks. At least comps are good, especially considering the situation.

[Inceptionzq]

On 9/1/2021 at 4:23 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Shang-Chi Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

490

2126

23.05%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

419

1526

27.46%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2377	311	19023	12.50%	15	121

 

Showings added: 7

Seats added: 977

 

AMCs sold	1525
Cinemarks sold	314
Regals sold	389
Harkins sold	149

 

Black Widow comp: 7.72M

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 8.08M

Fast 9 comp: 10.98M

Suicide Squad comp: 10.85M

 

Again not much acceleration. Was hoping for more. Only 55% of BW's pace today. Has to go 1.74x from today until final tomorrow for the adjusted comp to reach 9M. But even if that comp doesn't reach 9M, there should still be a chance with overindexing from Canada and other regions.

Shang-Chi Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

639

2126

30.06%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

585

1526

38.34%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4035	1658	19487	20.71%	15	127

 

Showings added: 6

Seats added: 464

 

AMCs sold	2317
Cinemarks sold	685
Regals sold	660
Harkins sold	373

 

Black Widow comp: 8.37M

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 8.77M

Fast 9 comp: 9.97M

Suicide Squad comp: 8.38M

 

Once again ignoring that Fast 9 comp because I counted that early. Solid day, went about 1.7x from yesterday. 72% of Black Widow's pace. Don't know if it has the juice for 9M, especially with the aftermath of Ida. I'll go with 8.6M

[Legion Again]

All these regionals look like 9+ to me after atp. Maybe everything just looks like 9-10 to my fandom addled brain, but then we have the MTCs.

[Menor the Destroyer]

27 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

So 4255 in Megaplex. I will see how walkins in Harkins are, the PSm won't be same as Harkins but slightly lower may be. Say 1.3x gives 5.5k final admits aka $82K. In normal days that would mean $8.2-9M, so slight under indexing, not much.

 

But let's see how walkins are at Harkins or if we can get numbers for MTC 1 & 2 right now, can compare with those.

Unfortunately I've been unable to get a full run of MTC2 since my last one but partial data is looking really good. It's probably doing better than my projection from earlier. Will be more specific when I can get full data. 

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

All these regionals look like 9+ to me after atp. Maybe everything just looks like 9-10 to my fandom addled brain, but then we have the MTCs.

Agreed, everything point to +9M.

 

With Ida i can see around 8.3-8.6M tho because of some negative impact on numbers, but anyway, everything seems pretty good so far, happily. 

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Shang-Chi and the Legends of the Ten Rings 

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [12:00pm - 12:55pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	192	20608	25450	4842	19.03%

 

Total Showings Added Since Last Night	4
Total Seats Added Today	465
Total Seats Sold Today	634

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Comp

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	61.80		891	7835		0/258	24466/32301	24.26%		8.54m
TSS	289.94		327	1670		0/111	15173/16843	9.92%		12.18m

COMP NOTE: The BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955). The TSS Comp has not been adjusted.

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	127.61		491	3390		0/170	17331/20721	16.36%		9.49m
SC (adj)	---		559	4326		1/168	4326/21874	17.60%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955). The TSS Comp has not been adjusted.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  SC (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's track.

 

Regal: 1160/7883 [14.72% sold] [+186 tickets]

 

===

 

And back to 70% of BW, more or less.  At T-0 Mid-Day (samples taken at the same time), Shang-Chi did 71% of the same business that Black Widow did at the same time.  I strongly suspect it'll do in the same range the rest of the day.  Not too much more at any rate.

 

As expected, The Suicide Squad comps is finally starting to drop through the floor.  It did underperform here (or at least the Sacto region might have normalized with the rest of the country), so expect that comp to come in high even at final bell.

 

Finally, put in a F9 comp for shits and giggles.  It too should drop considering the comparative sales patterns at play so, keep that in mind.

 

If SC does 70% of BW the rest of today (before stop of tracking), that'd be about 950 tickets sold which would bring the comp to 8.7m, which all things considered would be a fantastic result IMO.

 

To hit 9m, need about 1100 tickets sold between now and end of tracking, or about 80% of BW's sales over the same time period.  It's done that on occasion, but I wouldn't call it either a sure thing or a none-chance.  Just have to see what actually happens between now and then.

 

Shang-Chi and the Legends of the Ten Rings 

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [4:40pm - 5:30pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	3	196	19785	25703	5918	23.02%

 

Total Sellouts Added Since Mid-Day	2
Total Showings Added Since Mid-Day	4
Total Seats Added Since Mid-Day	253
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	1076

 

T-0 Comp

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW [4:20-5:20]	64.35		1361	9196		0/260	23235/32431	28.36%		8.9m
TSS [5:40-6:15]	251.62		682	2352		0/111	14491/16843	13.96%		10.57m

COMP NOTE: The BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955). The TSS Comp has not been adjusted.

 

T-0 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	119.11		1017	4407		0/161	15341/19748	22.32%		8.85m
SC (adj)	---		923	5249		3/172	5249/22127	23.72%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955). The TSS Comp has not been adjusted.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  SC (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's track.

 

Regal: 1481/7883 [18.79% sold] [+321 tickets]

 

===

 

Right off the bat, I want to say I'm a little concerned about those two sellouts that got added to the count since last report.  It's from a large dine-in theater in town that usually does great buisness, but I'm also a little concerned they might be capping, as they were... less than transparent about their exact capping rules during the period of time when California was under seating restrictions.  But since I can't find anything on their website that actually says they're capping right now, and because it probably only is a matter of about 40 to 60 seats if they're capping at something like 80 or 90 percent, just gonna have to roll with it and count them as true sellouts.

 

With that out of the way, strong day in Sacto, but not enough to push the main comp over 9m. Came close to the marker though as Shang-Chi did around 79% of Black Widow's ticket sales over roughly the same amount of time.

 

The TSS comps is sticking out there as something of a sore thumb, but as I've noted it either under-performed pretty badly here or Sacto finally came in line with the rest of the nation.

 

Haven't seen much else of late reporting, but I think I'll stick with 8.9m +/- .4m,  Large-ish range, but enough uncertainty with fallout from weather plus places over and under indexing that I'll stick with that for now.

 

Either way, it's gonna be a great preview total, IMO.  Unless Sacramento is waaaaaaaaaaay out of sync and over-performing heavily.

[Porthos]

45 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Probably just ignore these comps

 

I personally don't think we should as it should be a sign of Shang-Chi is over-performing in some areas relative to a Marvel movie.  

 

(I'm also concerned about overly relying on MTC data, as we've been burned on that before given how metro heavy it can be at times)

 

Do I think SC is coming in at 7m?

 

No.

 

Do I think the Denver comp (and to a lesser degree the comp out of Philly) shows that we shouldn't bump up the comps coming out of metros where it could be over-performing?  At least not too much?

 

Pretty much.

 

Hadn't seen this nor Eric's post, but it's making me glad that I didn't bump up my 8.9 +/- .4 to something like 9.2 +/- .4.  

 

I'll put it this way.  It won't surprise me if SC's preview is 9m+.  It also won't surprise me if it is 8.5m or less.  

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

54 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Shang-Chi Megaplex

 

T-0 days Thursday: 4255(+1783)/21408(+262) in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 6.78M [8279(+3301)]

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 7.10M

 

Yeah I think it's underperforming here. I also think that Black Widow may have overperformed with how big the last day jump was. Probably just ignore these comps

Do you have an F9 final number? Probably won't be of much use but still I'm curious.

[Legion Again]

Obviously we’ll have some high regions and some low ones, but good reason to think Canada and Regal can both overindex. It sounds like MTCs may come in 9.5ish and I think it’s about even on going O/U what they suggest this time.

[charlie Jatinder]

19 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Shang Chi Harkins T-1 Day

 

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	167	42,850	3,308	7.72%	$38,515	$11.64
Cine 1	16	4,818	1,628	33.79%	$25,010	$15.36
Cine Capri	4	1,782	193	10.83%	$2,661	$13.79
IMAX	2	890	272	30.56%	$4,080	$15.00
Total	189	50,340	5,401	10.73%	$70,266	$13.01

 

First off this is around 22.5 hours worth of day from yesterday, which apparently might have added 100-150 seats more if I took it an hour later.

 

Sold 1237 seats. I had put target of 1200 which it crossed easily. Unfortunately I don't have BW comp but can probably expect 2.5x PSm for $175K plus final in Harkins. We will see. 

 

2.97x of The Suicide Squad Tracked Gross - $12.2M

 

I am thinking Harkins will suggest $9.5-10M eventually tomorrow.

 

Edit: Side note, one theater doing exceedingly well, Cerritos 16. Cerritos has 59% of its population Asian, I suppose most of them would be Chinese. I will probably ignore this one while comparing with BW tomorrow.

Shang Chi at Harkins first show had 3522 admits on 32 shows with occupancy of 31.7%. Excellent start. First shows added 1635 seats from last night i.e. 1.87x PSm for first show. I will take another check in 20 mins for final number as there are good number of walkins 30 mins after show start. Will update these numbers. 

 

If whole day were to had 30% occupancy, we will have 15K plus admits, I am hoping for 14k+ atleast.

 

Edit 1: Added 122 more seats in next half hour. 

Edited September 3, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

Do you have an F9 final number? Probably won't be of much use but still I'm curious.

No he missed first few shows, I did the latter end of shows, but didn't had show wise data so to no avail.

[katnisscinnaplex]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

Let me guess.

 

"Something went wrong with your order, please try again" button with a blank-ish screen when it tried to pull up a seat map? Or something like that as I forget the exact wording.

 

I started getting hit by that a couple of days ago, but it only lasted for a couple of minutes at first, but last night I got hit by a two-by-four with it.  Finally resorted to tracking corp sites.  Got hit with it again this morning after about 25 or 30 showings checked in rapid order so I said "Screw you, Fandango" and hit up the corp sites.

 

Luckily I figured out keyboard shortcut terms for all of them so it only added a short amount of time to the track.  Ultra annoying though, yes.

 

This is something brand new for what it's worth.  It's obviously some sort of flood control measure, as it's almost certainly tied to an timed cookie and not an IP ban like @Menor got back in the day.

 

Hopefully this isn't gonna be an ongoing thing, but I ain't exactly hopeful. 😕 

Yep this is pretty much the exact thing.  I've got the wording down for searching most of the sites now, but it's a pain to go between multiple sites instead of only one.  There was one that was pretty nice; Cinemark I think that lets you click through showtimes without going back to the list.  I'm out of town tonight and on different internet so maybe that has something to do with it.  

[Inceptionzq]

21 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I personally don't think we should as it should be a sign of Shang-Chi is over-performing in some areas relative to a Marvel movie.

That’s true. We also see that in Raleigh from @katnisscinnaplex’s numbers.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

For AMC & Cinemark I encourage you guys to use ATOM tickets. You don't have to open each show separately like Fandango. Atleast that's what I have to do when using Fandango.

 

If REGAL was on ATOM, I would personally track may be 50-60 of them.

[SpiderByte]

There has been a trend of theatrical exclusives overperforming both in OW and in legs...

[Menor the Destroyer]

Shang-Chi was at 109400 at MTC2 in the latest run I took. Should be around 5-6k ahead of F9 at the same point. Pace is really good. 125k minimum, more likely heading for 130k at MTC2. 

Edited September 3, 2021 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

27 minutes ago, Menor said:

Shang-Chi was at 109400 at MTC2 in the latest run I took. Should be around 5-6k ahead of F9 at the same point. Pace is really good. 125k minimum, more likely heading for 130k at MTC2. 

Assuming its 125k, $13.5 ATP should give $1.69M, though wonder if there has been any cancellations in East Coast, that may drive ATP a bit low, though MTC2 has low presence in East coast, so it may not be that impacted by the rains.

 

In normal times $1.69M would mean $10.5M but we are not in normal times, so let's wait.

Edited September 3, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[ThomasNicole]

18 minutes ago, Menor said:

Shang-Chi was at 109400 at MTC2 in the latest run I took. Should be around 5-6k ahead of F9 at the same point. Pace is really good. 125k minimum, more likely heading for 130k at MTC2. 

Wow very good pace, slighty surprised.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Shang Chi at Harkins first show had 3522 admits on 32 shows with occupancy of 31.7%. Excellent start. First shows added 1635 seats from last night i.e. 1.87x PSm for first show. I will take another check in 20 mins for final number as there are good number of walkins 30 mins after show start. Will update these numbers. 

 

If whole day were to had 30% occupancy, we will have 15K plus admits, I am hoping for 14k+ atleast.

 

Edit 1: Added 122 more seats in next half hour. 

As of 19:00, $75,812 at Harkins on 76 shows with 27.8% occupancy. 117 shows more to go.

 

The last night sales for these 76 shows were $39,611. For the remaining show sales were $30,655, we should get $100K from those.