The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

Shang Chi Previews

MTC1 - 168703/510345 2583538.05 3099 shows

MTC2 - 121380/461479 1585398.37 3454 shows

 

Sticking to earlier prediction and would say 9.1m previews. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

33 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Shang Chi Previews

MTC1 - 168703/510345 2583538.05 3099 shows

MTC2 - 121380/461479 1585398.37 3454 shows

 

Sticking to earlier prediction and would say 9.1m previews. 

I think there is potential to go higher. MTC1 is at 77% of BW gross (!). MTC2 is probably 70%ish. Then factor in Canada and it would go quite high. But I do think the MTCs may be overindexing for this so it's better to be cautious. Will go with around 9.3. 

 

Ok after looking into it TSS gross comp suggests ~8.7-8.8, BW gross comp suggests around 9.8-9.9, F9 gross comp suggests around 9 (using some estimated values for MTC2 ATP). So I guess take your pick lol. 

Edited September 3, 2021 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

22 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Shang Chi Previews

MTC1 - 168703/510345 2583538.05 3099 shows

MTC2 - 121380/461479 1585398.37 3454 shows

 

Sticking to earlier prediction and would say 9.1m previews. 

Is this your final update or there will be one later?

[Cap]

So, who's ready for some fun numbers from Newington?

 

Tonight.

 

Shang Chi.

6 Showings.

405/780

51.92% Sold.

 

Previously.

 

Black Widow

7 Showings

436/858

50.81% Sold.

 

Which comps out to 92.88% of Widow, or 12.26M.  Wouldn't that be a trip.  LOL.

 

Falmouth was at 8.2M. Newington at 12.26M.   So hopefully 10.2M is the lucky number.  

[Menor the Destroyer]

8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Is this your final update or there will be one later?

That was the time Keyser usually posts the final update I think. It was around this time for BW and F9 I remember, I think TSS as well. 

Edited September 3, 2021 by Menor

[keysersoze123]

10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Is this your final update or there will be one later?

I normally close at this hour. I have not seen much movement after this hour. @Menor will have morning data but MTC1 does not return data that late. Even now I get zero data for earlier shows. But I store previous value if do not get fresh data. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Ok Friday showcount is quite big at 6632. F9 had 6719 the night before but that included a lot of duplicate DBOX shows, and that was in the summer. So there is space for a big true Friday and given that today had very good walkups, it has a good chance of happening. 

[narniadis]

Thank you all as always for keeping us up to date 😊 

Hoping it stays above 9m 

[keysersoze123]

Shang Chi OD Previews End

MTC1 - 144803/1063232 2171585.28 5939 shows

MTC2 - 89756/919804 1081838.07 6488 shows

 

BW was at 225K and 165.6K respectively. SC avg is higher as ratio of PLF is higher but that will come down with walk ups. for previews SC did 72% of final in ticket numbers at MTC1. Let us how things go tomorrow. My rough guess is around 20m true friday. 

Spoiler

Black Widow Friday (PS END)

MTC1  - 225260/1242734 2735507.00 7183 shows(433 Theatres)

MTC2 -  165691/1022525 1855471.55 7462 shows(308 Theatres)

 

Shang Chi Sat

MTC1 - 81854/1129039 1153656.74 6227 shows

MTC2 - 49949/932504 569855.35 6437 shows

 

I think saturday PS will end around 25% below friday and so will have to catch up with walkups. Thinking flatish to small drop drop.

Edited September 3, 2021 by keysersoze123

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

As of 19:00, $75,812 at Harkins on 76 shows with 27.8% occupancy. 117 shows more to go.

 

The last night sales for these 76 shows were $39,611. For the remaining show sales were $30,655, we should get $100K from those.

As on 20:30, $152K at Harkins on all 193 shows. Will probably add another $12-15k for $164-167K vs ~$245-250K of Black Widow. Definitely end up lower than I expected. I will be also ignoring Cerritos 16 which overperformed a lot.

 

Ignoring that, it suggest $9-9.25M with BW comp, will see how others do in final post.

[Legion Again]

25 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think saturday PS will end around 25% below friday and so will have to catch up with walkups. Thinking flatish to small drop drop.

This would be an awful Sat, what runs are you comping with?

[ThomasNicole]

Yeah drop on saturday would be very bad i don't remember any big movie other than BW that face a sat drop.

 

It would ended up getting a pretty bad OW multiplier too if this happen.

 

Let's hope it doesn't happen. With 20M friday i would expect around 22M sat.

[charlie Jatinder]

As always SAT PS don't matter till we are done with FRI. Casual audience will first go for FRI if they couldn't then book SAT. 

[ViewerAnon]

I hope you all know I watch this thread like I watch football. “Oh! Oh! Get there! GET THERE!”

[Inceptionzq]

On 9/1/2021 at 4:50 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Shang-Chi Megaplex

 

T-2 days Friday: 2246(+446)/59082 in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 12.43M [4754(+835)]

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 13.02M

Fast 9 comp: 22.70M

 

Today's the last day of the F9 comp. Won't matter since I have a BW comp, but I was interested to see how that Friday would end up. It's been neck and neck with F9 for a few days.

Shang-Chi Megaplex Friday

 

3825(+1579)/58857(-228) in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 11.77M [8544(+3790)]

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 12.32M

 

Really wish I had a F9 comp. Wonder if it's just performing more like F9 here. Comp probably would've decreased, but the previous days support that overall trend being closer to F9. But this is really showing how much Megaplex is underperforming compared to BW. And just another thing to show how much it's underperforming, I did a count for BW Friday at 2PM on Thursday, and another one at 1AM Friday. In that span of 11 hours, BW added 2261 tickets. Shang-Chi did this in 31 hours. I'll do a final count in the morning.

[charlie Jatinder]

Shang Chi Harkins Final

 

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	171	42,965	9,855	22.94%	$110,251	$11.19
Cine 1	16	4,818	2,531	52.53%	$38,524	$15.22
Cine Capri	4	1,782	389	21.83%	$5,085	$13.07
IMAX	2	890	396	44.49%	$5,940	$15.00
Total	193	50,455	13,171	26.10%	$159,800	$12.13

 

So it ended a bit short than I expected. In normal times this would mean $8.5-8.75M previews but we are not in normal times.

 

I am simply going for comps, for comps I am ignoring Cerritos 16.

 

64% of Black Widow - $8.9M (adjusted for CAN)

198% of The Suicide Squad - $8.15M

 

With Cerritos 16

Spoiler

65.2% of Black Widow - $9.1M

201% of The Suicide Squad - $8.25M

 

From Harkins, I would be going with $8.75-9M but MTC1 and 2 are strong, so I think we are safe. Besides the main purpose of Harkins is to estimate the non-MTC theaters, and using this and Megaplex, non-MTC theaters should be big enough to have $9.25M previews since MTCs are at $11-12M level.

[Porthos]

23 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Shang Chi Harkins Final

 

64% of Black Widow - $8.9M (adjusted for CAN)

 

 

 

Quote

 

From Harkins, I would be going with $8.75-9M

 

  

Quote

Besides the main purpose of Harkins is to estimate the non-MTC theaters, and using this and Megaplex, non-MTC theaters should be big enough to have $9.25M

 

 

Spoiler

9.25m is within .4m of 8.9m you know. 

 

Edited September 3, 2021 by Porthos

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/27/2021 at 7:17 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

This made me wonder how far behind BW in # of shows it is.  Another report I run weekly on Friday mornings is for the weekend's showtimes in a sample of around 4500 theaters.   Black Widow ended up with previews in 3,109 of those theaters and 23,129 showings.   Shang-Chi currently has 1,740 theaters with 11,438 shows listed for Thursday.  I'll have an accurate comparison next Friday morning once the full list of shows are up.

Not sure if there is interest in showtime data, but here are the comparisons I have for Shang-Chi.  These were taken Friday morning of release in the same sample of theaters.

 

	Previews	Fri	Sat	Sun	Weekend	4-Day
A Quiet Place 2	15,220	34,497	37,009	35,085	121,811	154,556
F9	15,241	41,033	42,311	38,670	137,255
Black Widow	23,129	45,185	45,889	42,578	156,781
Shang-Chi	15,697	41,785	43,463	41,472	142,417	180,208

[charlie Jatinder]

Wasn't this tense during BW but those @Inceptionzq and @Porthos projections are giving me a lot of tension despite MTCs #s being very strong. 

[charlie Jatinder]

38 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Not sure if there is interest in showtime data, but here are the comparisons I have for Shang-Chi.  These were taken Friday morning of release in the same sample of theaters.

 

	Previews	Fri	Sat	Sun	Weekend	4-Day
A Quiet Place 2	15,220	34,497	37,009	35,085	121,811	154,556
F9	15,241	41,033	42,311	38,670	137,255
Black Widow	23,129	45,185	45,889	42,578	156,781
Shang-Chi	15,697	41,785	43,463	41,472	142,417	180,208

Woah how did I miss this? Did you shared the data earlier? How many theaters are you covering.