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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Woah how did I miss this? Did you shared the data earlier? How many theaters are you covering.

 

There are around 4500 theaters in my sample, but I set it up last year when lots of theaters were closed; I'm sure it includes a lot of closed theaters/drive ins/second run theaters but it usually ends up around 80-82% of final TCs.  It's US only as well so that accounts for some of the missing theaters.  For the four above...
Shang-Chi - 3,523

BW - 3,409

F9 - 3,491

AQP - 3,320

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2 minutes ago, Menor said:

So TSS comp ended up almost being bang on. Will be useful for Friday. 

it made sense considering the MTC1/2 ratio was closer to SS than BW or F9. Question is if walkups today are better than yesterday. As I put yesterday it did 72% of BW at MTC1. But it started an hour late. Let us see how things go today. BW added about 217K at MTC1 and 185K at MTC2 after my thursday update till around Friday 8PM. I am thinking 20m true friday based on how SC has done so far. 

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@Eric and the Ten Rings which theaters at your place got closed?

 

I can see two possibilities.

 

1. Canada hitting capacity at places ending with low PSm as was happening when there was seating restriction in US.

2. Non-MTC theaters remained closed at Ida impacted areas and that business shifted to MTC, inflating the ratio.

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SC OD Friday Morning

MTC1 - 161562/1063045 2402972.93 5993 shows

MTC2 - 101855/921910 1219136.64 6487 shows

 

Final BW OD

MTC1 - 442690/1236881 5059891.00 7297 shows

MTC2 - 350320/1051542 3801320.78 7641 shows

 

SS OD

MTC1 - 131341/872959 1891676.03 4673 shows

MTC2 - 100072/652482 1133193.94 4534 shows

 

F9 OD

MTC1 - 371277/1120376 4207522.00 6500 shows

 

Target should be around 330-350K MTC1 and 250K MTC2. Let us see how things go. 

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1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@Eric and the Ten Rings which theaters at your place got closed?

 

I can see two possibilities.

 

1. Canada hitting capacity at places ending with low PSm as was happening when there was seating restriction in US.

2. Non-MTC theaters remained closed at Ida impacted areas and that business shifted to MTC, inflating the ratio.

Two were Regal, one was MTC1.

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Just now, Porthos said:

vince-mcmahon-funny-walk.gif

 

14 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Shang-Chi and the Legends of the Ten Rings 

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [4:40pm - 5:30pm]

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

3

196

19785

25703

5918

23.02%

 

Total Sellouts Added Since Mid-Day

2

Total Showings Added Since Mid-Day

4

Total Seats Added Since Mid-Day

253

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day

1076

 

T-0 Comp

 

   %

 

Sold Since Mid-Day

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

BW [4:20-5:20]

64.35

 

1361

9196

 

0/260

23235/32431

28.36%

 

8.9m

TSS [5:40-6:15]

251.62

 

682

2352

 

0/111

14491/16843

13.96%

 

10.57m

COMP NOTE: The BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955). The TSS Comp has not been adjusted.

 

T-0 Adjusted Comp

 

   %

 

Sold Since Mid-Day

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

F9

119.11

 

1017

4407

 

0/161

15341/19748

22.32%

 

8.85m

SC (adj)

---

 

923

5249

 

3/172

5249/22127

23.72%

 

---

COMP NOTE: The F9 Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955). The TSS Comp has not been adjusted.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  SC (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's track.

 

Haven't seen much else of late reporting, but I think I'll stick with 8.9m +/- .4m

 

lotr3-movie-screencaps.com-.jpg?q=50

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6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@Eric and the Ten Rings which theaters at your place got closed?

 

I can see two possibilities.

 

1. Canada hitting capacity at places ending with low PSm as was happening when there was seating restriction in US.

2. Non-MTC theaters remained closed at Ida impacted areas and that business shifted to MTC, inflating the ratio.

3rd option is just like Korea, movie with  Chinese  Origin hero  is not playing that well in certain markets. That wont be much of a surprise. Didn't @Inceptionzq updates also showed how it underperformed in megaplex and there are many more which would do worse. 

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Just now, keysersoze123 said:

3rd option is just like Korea, movie with  Chinese  Origin hero  is not playing that well in certain markets. That wont be much of a surprise. Didn't @Inceptionzq updates also showed how it underperformed in megaplex and there are many more which would do worse. 

That was already accounted. I take Megaplex and Harkins numbers and then estimate rest of chains based on that. For BW they were 6.5x of M+H, here I took 6.25x for already underperforming M+H.

 

Let me try to get chain wise data. FWIW may be your coverage is more than 84% I have been using for MTC1. That alone will change a lot of things.

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12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

SC OD Friday Morning

MTC1 - 161562/1063045 2402972.93 5993 shows

MTC2 - 101855/921910 1219136.64 6487 shows

 

Final BW OD

MTC1 - 442690/1236881 5059891.00 7297 shows

MTC2 - 350320/1051542 3801320.78 7641 shows

 

SS OD

MTC1 - 131341/872959 1891676.03 4673 shows

MTC2 - 100072/652482 1133193.94 4534 shows

 

F9 OD

MTC1 - 371277/1120376 4207522.00 6500 shows

 

Target should be around 330-350K MTC1 and 250K MTC2. Let us see how things go. 

 

On 7/9/2021 at 11:33 AM, keysersoze123 said:

I went midway in my range. It finished close to lower end. Still this is a fantastic number considering the hybrid model.

 

Morning Update

MTC1 - 250806/1247497 3002051.00 7259 shows

MTC2 - 183844/1030320 2049328.66 7554 shows

 

Let us see how the day goes. 

 

This seems like around a similar point for BW. I would say it's a good start. Hopefully gets strong walkups throughout the day. 

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9 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Shang-Chi Megaplex Friday

 

3825(+1579)/58857(-228) in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 11.77M [8544(+3790)]

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 12.32M

 

Really wish I had a F9 comp. Wonder if it's just performing more like F9 here. Comp probably would've decreased, but the previous days support that overall trend being closer to F9. But this is really showing how much Megaplex is underperforming compared to BW. And just another thing to show how much it's underperforming, I did a count for BW Friday at 2PM on Thursday, and another one at 1AM Friday. In that span of 11 hours, BW added 2261 tickets. Shang-Chi did this in 31 hours. I'll do a final count in the morning.

Shang-Chi Megaplex Friday

 

4207(+382)/59039(+182) in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 11.91M [9287(+743)]

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 12.47M

 

Well the overnight pace improved a good amount. 51% of BW vs 41% yesterday. Already figured that walkups should be better, but this is a good sign. It'll still end up underindexing like Thursday, but it is what it is.

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