The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I see you didn't adjust for higher ATP.

But that was intentional since Porthos thought that ATP would cancel out with Sacto overperformance. I would say it was a smart move. 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

But that was intentional since Porthos thought that ATP would cancel out with Sacto overperformance. I would say it was a smart move. 

 

issaaa joke...

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I see you didn't adjust for higher ATP.

 

Look, I'm just happy that for the first time in the pandemic era, I FINALLY nailed a projection (and, yes, coming within .1m is nailing IMO).

 

Gonna take a Power Walk or three after that, al'right?  

 

NB:  @Inceptionzq can join me in the Power Walk if he wants with his 8.6m call as well.  

[Inceptionzq]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

NB:  @Inceptionzq can join me in the Power Walk if he wants with his 8.6m call as well.  

 

Don’t forget @WrathOfHan’s 8.7M prediction. 

[charlie Jatinder]

9 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

From Harkins, I would be going with $8.75-9M but MTC1 and 2 are strong, so I think we are safe.

hey hey now.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

hey hey now.

 

Judicious use of selective quoting of posts there, I see. 

 

I approve. 👍

Edited September 3, 2021 by Porthos

[Porthos]

17 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

 

Don’t forget @WrathOfHan’s 8.7M prediction. 

 

Already made my apologies in the WE thread but I'll say it here as well.

 

Mea Culpa, @WrathOfHan!!! 

[charlie Jatinder]

I think its a win for entire tracking thread once again. That 8.8M is just an estimate, might as well be 9M actuals. We will never know.

 

I suppose there is nothing to track till NTTD. So a nice little break everyone.

[Legion Again]

Great job as usual folks. I would love to be doing a victory lap about “9-10” right now but I was robbed by Ida 👀

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Lokis Legion said:

Great job as usual folks. I would love to be doing a victory lap about “9-10” right now but I was robbed by Ida 👀

well we may get a better friday  👀 ,keep faith comrade

 

[Eric Duncan]

28 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think its a win for entire tracking thread once again. That 8.8M is just an estimate, might as well be 9M actuals. We will never know.

 

I suppose there is nothing to track till NTTD. So a nice little break everyone.

It'll be so nice to go back to sleep at a reasonable time...oh what am I saying, I'm always gonna stay up until 1 AM.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/31/2021 at 10:05 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Jacksonville weekend sales by day with comps.  Take these with a grain of salt; 4-day weekend will have a much higher Sunday that isn't accounted for here.  This would be based on a normal 3-day weekend:

 

	Th	Fr	Sat	Sun	Total
Shang-Chi	626	437	299	163	1,525
Black Widow	1,310	972	584	278	3,144
Fast & Furious 9	489	674	443	197	1,803
Suicide Squad	241	161	126	61	589

 

Preview:	8.5m	9m	9.5m
Black Widow	$52,529,504	$55,619,475	$58,709,446
Fast & Furious 9	$55,403,217	$58,662,230	$61,921,242
Suicide Squad	$54,153,106	$57,338,583	$60,524,059

Jacksonville weekend sales by day with comps.  Th-Fr ratio in line with BW but weekend looks more like F9.   Would expect weekend to be more walk-up driven than pre-sales than these comps with it being a new character.  I'd go with 62m-64m for the 3-day based solely on these comps.

 

	Th	Fr	Sat	Sun	Total	Comp Prediction
Shang-Chi	1,423	1,506	751	378	4,058
Black Widow	2,333	2,445	1,206	582	6,566	$54,287,993
Fast & Furious 9	1,155	2,017	941	440	4,553	$62,803,170
Suicide Squad	665	492	289	115	1,561	$68,330,680

[Legion Again]

The usual method probably underestimating the holiday sun. Can add maybe ~10% from that

[keysersoze123]

13 hours ago, Lokis Legion said:

This would be an awful Sat, what runs are you comping with?

I could be off. Let us wait until night time today to see where things are. It should do better than that. Even my PS update was tad before 6PM. 

 

That said MCU movies are getting frontloaded. Its natural progression as fanbase grows. you will see that today with higher previews to OD ratio than what we used to see few years back. BW also was quite frontloaded. 

 

MTC ratio is going to be skewed as well. Lousianna is down with million homes without power. Though I am not expecting a big BO chunk from Lousianna. Biggeer question is if there is any impact in North East region. 

[Legion Again]

BW was on PA in summer for established character, should be a world of difference with Shang chi. Fri/Th is going to be a little worse than mid 2010s movies but I think that reflects general consumer habits more so than franchise specific trends. I still think the front loading of the mcu is overblown — but this weekend will put that to the test, could cause me to reevaluate if we go 17.5-19-16-11 or whatever.

[john2000]

@keysersoze123 any update ?

[keysersoze123]

Shang Chi Mid Day Friday

MTC1 - 215178/1073741 3097276.61 6087 shows

MTC2 - 146426/937407 1675414.46 6622 shows

 

Good growth so far. Let us see how things go. if I have to guess its headed to ~70% of BW friday. Also walkups will be better at MTC2 considering MTC1 number is skewed presales for evening.  

 

Edit BW number but about an hour earlier than this. so about 70% of MTC1 and low 60s of MTC2. But things could change depending on how the walkups go and so take early projections from me with a grain of salt.

 

Spoiler

Almost 4 hours later MTC1 at 298K and MTC2(about 3.5 hours) at 218K. No change in predictions. 

 

Edited September 3, 2021 by keysersoze123

[Menor the Destroyer]

27 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Shang Chi Mid Day Friday

MTC1 - 215178/1073741 3097276.61 6087 shows

MTC2 - 146426/937407 1675414.46 6622 shows

 

Good growth so far. Let us see how things go. if I have to guess its headed to ~70% of BW friday. Also walkups will be better at MTC2 considering MTC1 number is skewed presales for evening.  

 

On 7/9/2021 at 2:35 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Almost 4 hours later MTC1 at 298K and MTC2(about 3.5 hours) at 218K. No change in predictions. 

 

This seems like it is 1.5 hours later than the BW update, which then added 210k combined in the next 6 hours (so probably under 50k in 1.5 hours). Deadline's projection is surprising to me in this case as it seems like it should already be around 64% of BW's Friday in admits (16.83 million and the pure admits comp gave around 8.5 yesterday). The ratio should increase with walkups too. However, Deadline has been very accurate this summer so I am hesitant to go against them. Maybe it will die in night walkups like BW did. 

[john2000]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Shang Chi Mid Day Friday

MTC1 - 215178/1073741 3097276.61 6087 shows

MTC2 - 146426/937407 1675414.46 6622 shows

 

Good growth so far. Let us see how things go. if I have to guess its headed to ~70% of BW friday. Also walkups will be better at MTC2 considering MTC1 number is skewed presales for evening.  

 

Edit BW number but about an hour earlier than this. so about 70% of MTC1 and low 60s of MTC2. But things could change depending on how the walkups go and so take early projections from me with a grain of salt.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Almost 4 hours later MTC1 at 298K and MTC2(about 3.5 hours) at 218K. No change in predictions. 

 

What it would need for 20 mill true friday

[Menor the Destroyer]

11 minutes ago, john2000 said:

What it would need for 20 mill true friday

Would need around 590k between the two MTC. That borders on impossible at this point. Still my feeling is that this is going over Deadline's projection. Even 500k would probably lead to 16.5 and that would be if it ran at exactly 60% of BW's pace the rest of the way (the morning should have been in the 70%s range at least if not 80%). If this were July I would be saying 17+ but of course I was way too high on BW (I was saying 30m true Friday in the midday) so Deadline's track record is better. 

Edited September 3, 2021 by Menor