The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

56 minutes ago, Eric and the Ten Rings said:

Oh and as a heads up for people tracking Bond tomorrow, there are a couple of theaters doing an Early Access IMAX screening on Wednesday the 6th. It's not super common, only like three or so of the theaters I'm tracking are doing it, but do keep that in consideration when you're tracking.

 

Are they Regal only by any chance? I took a quick glance I only have one (Regal Delta Shores).  I was a little surprised not to see one at Century Arden, but if it's a Regal Exclusive then that would make more sense.

[Porthos]

22 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Bond did start PS last time around as well pre COVID before it got postponed. Its PS was not that great but it had a longer PS window back then. I guess with shorter window plus the marketing push, this could start its PS with a bang. 

 

Near as I can tell, it was only up for two days before getting postponed.  That's all I have record wise at least.

 

*double checks*

 

Yep.  Two days at T-38 and T-37 before getting punted.

 

Not exactly a lot of sales as you note (only 289 locally at stop of tracking).  Just have to see if the compressed calendar plus buzz is doing anything or not.

Edited September 17, 2021 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 9/15/2021 at 11:18 PM, Porthos said:

 

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	25000	25793	793	3.07%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

59

 

T-15 Comp           VERY LOL-TASTIC FOR SOME - USE AT OWN RISK

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	88.31		71	898		0/91	13252/14150	6.35%		6.57m
TSS	250.16		12	317		0/81	13635/13952	2.27%		10.51m
SC	93.74		120	846		0/101	16156/17002	4.98%		8.25m

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Venom 2's tickets have been on sale for five days more than Shang-Chi while F9 was on sale for one more day than Venom 2. 

COMP NOTE: The F9 Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955). Neither the TSS nor the SC Comp have been adjusted.

 

T-15 Adjusted Comp            FAIRLY LOL-TASTIC - USE AT OWN RISK

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	32.13		108	2381		0/117	16753/19134	12.44%		4.44m
V2 (adj)	---		50	765		0/139	22868/23633	3.24%		---

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Black Widow's tickets have been on sale for five days more than Venom 2.

COMP NOTE: The BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: V2 (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

 

Regal: 176/7375 [2.39% sold] [+6 tickets]

 

======

 

EDIT::::::

 

This was my 25,000th post.  Neat.  Appropriate that it was a tracking report. 👍

 

(only thing that could have been more "on brand" is if it would have been a SW post )

 

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	24915	25793	878	3.40%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

85

 

T-14 Comp           VERY LOL-TASTIC FOR SOME - USE AT OWN RISK

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	90.61		71	969		0/91	13181/14150	6.85%		6.74m
TSS	270.99		7	324		0/81	13628/13952	2.32%		11.38m
SC	90.80		121	967		0/101	16035/17002	5.69%		7.99m

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Venom 2's tickets have been on sale for five days more than Shang-Chi while F9 was on sale for one more day than Venom 2. 

COMP NOTE: The F9 Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955). Neither the TSS nor the SC Comp have been adjusted.

 

T-14 Adjusted Comp            FAIRLY LOL-TASTIC - USE AT OWN RISK

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	33.78		106	2487		0/117	16647/19134	13.00%		4.67m
V2 (adj)	---		75	840		0/139	22793/23633	3.55%		---

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Black Widow's tickets have been on sale for five days more than Venom 2.

COMP NOTE: The BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: V2 (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

 

Regal: 187/7375 [2.54% sold] [+9 tickets]

[charlie Jatinder]

I see we have good last few days. Good signs. Let's see if they hold. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

8 hours ago, Eric and the Ten Rings said:

Oh and as a heads up for people tracking Bond tomorrow, there are a couple of theaters doing an Early Access IMAX screening on Wednesday the 6th. It's not super common, only like three or so of the theaters I'm tracking are doing it, but do keep that in consideration when you're tracking.

 

From what I can see so far...

AMC - 182

Regal - 76

Other - 27

Total - 285

 

All just one showing at 7pm

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 9/10/2021 at 1:45 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

US showtime sample for this weekend.

 

Movie	Theaters	Showtimes	Standard	PLF
Shang-Chi	3,445	101,701	94,089	7,612
Malignant	2,998	40,566	40,566	0
Candyman	2,865	36,865	36,865	0
Free Guy	2,992	33,487	33,403	84
Jungle Cruise	2,382	24,068	24,038	30
Paw Patrol	2,257	20,791	20,791	0
Show Me the Father	1,054	15,629	15,629	0
Don't Breathe 2	1,444	11,218	11,218	0
Respect	1,187	7,446	7,446	0
The Card Counter	542	6,895	6,895	0
Queenpins	150	1,784	1,784	0

US showtimes sample for 9/17 weekend

 

Movie	Theaters	Showtimes	Standard	PLF
Shang-Chi	3,313	76,137	71,964	4,173
Cry Macho	3,268	42,749	42,749	0
CopShop	2,641	37,892	37,892	0
Malignant	3,013	30,168	30,168	0
Free Guy	2,734	28,992	28,953	39
Candyman	2,495	27,217	27,217	0
Jungle Cruise	1,970	19,555	19,529	26
Paw Patrol	1,837	14,416	14,416	0
Show Me the Father	1,046	11,139	11,139	0
Don't Breathe 2	899	6,654	6,654	0
The Card Counter	546	5,595	5,595	0
Eyes of Tammy Faye	394	5,545	5,545	0
Blue Bayou	444	5,439	5,439	0

 

On 9/9/2021 at 10:42 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Venom previews (Day 1)

Standard - 1,920 theaters; 9,741 shows

3D - 831 theaters; 1,543 shows

IMAX - 286 theaters; 783 shows

Total: 1,934 unique theaters; 12,067 shows

 

For comparison, here are my highest final preview show counts (done Friday morning after previews)

 

Black Widow - 23,129 (3,409 theaters)

Shang-Chi - 15,697 (3,523)

F9 - 15,241 (3,491)

A Quiet Place 2 - 15,220 (3,320)

Venom 2 - 12,067 (1,934)

The Suicide Squad - 9,701 (3,604)

Jungle Cruise - 9,677 (3,334)

Cruella - 9,435 (3,376)

Free Guy - 8,348 (3,318)

 

Could reach BW volume of shows by preview time.

 

Futures previews showtimes

 

Venom 2 - 13,768

No Time to Die - 7,191

Addams Family - 3.759

[Eric Duncan]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-no-time-to-die/

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2021 Calendar
(as of 9/17/21)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	% Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	% Chg from Last Week	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
9/24/2021	Courageous Legacy	$500,000 – $3,000,000		$1,000,000 – $7,000,000		1,000	Sony Pictures
9/24/2021	Dear Evan Hansen	$6,000,000 – $15,000,000		$18,000,000 – $40,000,000		3,300	Universal Pictures
10/1/2021	The Addams Family 2	$12,000,000 – $22,000,000		$40,000,000 – $70,000,000		3,700	United Artists Releasing
10/1/2021	The Jesus Music					n/a	Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company
10/1/2021	The Many Saints of Newark	$7,000,000 – $16,000,000	-44%	$20,000,000 – $45,000,000	-49%	3,600	Warner Bros. Pictures
10/1/2021	Venom: Let There Be Carnage	$45,000,000 – $65,000,000	6%	$105,000,000 – $145,000,000	6%	4,100	Sony Pictures / Columbia
10/8/2021	No Time to Die	$55,000,000 – $85,000,000		$140,000,000 – $240,000,000			MGM

[Porthos]

Venom 2 trending up, I see.  Seems reasonable from what we've seen from local trackers.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Seems like quite a soft start for Bond at MTC2. Showcount is pretty low as well, especially for Friday. 

[WrathOfHan]

27 minutes ago, Menor said:

Seems like quite a soft start for Bond at MTC2. Showcount is pretty low as well, especially for Friday. 

The 4PM start is going to deflate sales with its long runtime. Late shows for Dolby and IMAX are going to be very uncommon due to it.

[Menor the Destroyer]

39 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

The 4PM start is going to deflate sales with its long runtime. Late shows for Dolby and IMAX are going to be very uncommon due to it.

Why would 4PM deflate late shows? I get the runtime point but starting early would get more shows.

[TheDude391]

In Ontario, Bond opens after the vaccine passport requirements start. The theatres are selling tickets at full capacity now.

 

Edit: The second largest chain, Landmark is doing that. Cineplex seems to be continuing with seating limits.

Edited September 17, 2021 by TheDude391

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Eric and the Ten Rings said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-no-time-to-die/

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2021 Calendar
(as of 9/17/21)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	% Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	% Chg from Last Week	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
9/24/2021	Courageous Legacy	$500,000 – $3,000,000		$1,000,000 – $7,000,000		1,000	Sony Pictures
9/24/2021	Dear Evan Hansen	$6,000,000 – $15,000,000		$18,000,000 – $40,000,000		3,300	Universal Pictures
10/1/2021	The Addams Family 2	$12,000,000 – $22,000,000		$40,000,000 – $70,000,000		3,700	United Artists Releasing
10/1/2021	The Jesus Music					n/a	Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company
10/1/2021	The Many Saints of Newark	$7,000,000 – $16,000,000	-44%	$20,000,000 – $45,000,000	-49%	3,600	Warner Bros. Pictures
10/1/2021	Venom: Let There Be Carnage	$45,000,000 – $65,000,000	6%	$105,000,000 – $145,000,000	6%	4,100	Sony Pictures / Columbia
10/8/2021	No Time to Die	$55,000,000 – $85,000,000		$140,000,000 – $240,000,000			MGM

 

So, I'll say it now - I'll be shocked if No Time to Die out opens Venom, even with NTTD having the Monday holiday (and thus the softer Sunday drop)...

 

Even before we see 1st day sales:)...

[CJohn]

Bond will do 70M. Venom will do 55M. Bond will easily destroy Venom.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

Seems like quite a soft start for Bond at MTC2. Showcount is pretty low as well, especially for Friday. 

It was a very soft start last March as well. 

 

Locally, after I was done setting up my sheets:

 

NTTD v1: 158/9301 [sample finished at 10:55am]

NTTD v2: 152/19923 [sample finished at 10:55am]

 

Wildly different amount of showtimes, but that's mostly coz a few theaters were still filling in on the initial sample last year (even with all day PLFs) + being closer to release now = more certainty in showtimes.

 

I fully expect this to be a late arriving crowd ala F9 and AQP II.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

The 4PM start is going to deflate sales with its long runtime. Late shows for Dolby and IMAX are going to be very uncommon due to it.

 

50 minutes ago, Menor said:

Why would 4PM deflate late shows? I get the runtime point but starting early would get more shows.

 

No, I think I see what Wrath is saying.  Let's take one screen that starts at 5pm that takes up 2:30 in total time (run time + cleaning + seating) versus one that takes 3:30. 

 

Instead of being able to get showtimes at 5:00pm, 7:30pm, 10pm they have to shunt it to 4pm, 7:30pm, 11pm.  Even if you shave 15 minutes off, there's still less screens for the 5:45pm to 9:30pm window where there is most of the sales on a Thursday night.  Given staffing problems, many theaters will probably just drop that 11pm showing unless there is clear demand for it.  

 

To give an example, locally I only have nine showings so far starting at 10pm or later and only one after 11pm.   

 

More to the point, even if one squeezes in 4pm-5pm showings and 10pm-11pm showings, those simply aren't gonna get as many sales as ones between 5pm-6pm and 9pm-10pm, never mind 6pm-7pm and 8pm-9pm.

 

EDIT:::

 

As another data point, I think @DAJK was obliquely referring to this when he said this last night in the NTTD thread:

 

16 hours ago, DAJK said:

God this thing is a nightmare to schedule showtimes for.

 

 

Edited September 17, 2021 by Porthos

[DAJK]

Bond is already ahead of Shang Chi's first 24h of presales here.

[WrathOfHan]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

No, I think I see what Wrath is saying.  Let's take one screen that starts at 5pm that takes up 2:30 in total time (run time + cleaning + seating) versus one that takes 3:30. 

 

Instead of being able to get showtimes at 5:00pm, 7:30pm, 10pm they have to shunt it to 4pm, 7:30pm, 11pm.  Even if you shave 15 minutes off, there's still less screens for the 5:45pm to 9:30pm window where there is most of the sales on a Thursday night.  Given staffing problems, many theaters will probably just drop that 11pm showing unless there is clear demand for it.  

 

To give an example, locally I only have nine showings so far starting at 10pm or later and only one after 11pm.   

 

More to the point, even if one squeezes in 4pm-5pm showings and 10pm-11pm showings, those simply aren't gonna get as many sales as ones between 5pm-6pm and 9pm-10pm, never mind 6pm-7pm and 8pm-9pm.

 

EDIT:::

 

As another data point, I think @DAJK was obliquely referring to this when he said this last night in the NTTD thread:

 

 

 

Yep. Disney Springs for example has their Dolby showtimes at 4PM and 7:45PM. Adding a late show would require it to be 11:30PM, and they haven't been open that late once since re-opening.

[katnisscinnaplex]

52 minutes ago, Porthos said:

No, I think I see what Wrath is saying.  Let's take one screen that starts at 5pm that takes up 2:30 in total time (run time + cleaning + seating) versus one that takes 3:30. 

 

Instead of being able to get showtimes at 5:00pm, 7:30pm, 10pm they have to shunt it to 4pm, 7:30pm, 11pm.  Even if you shave 15 minutes off, there's still less screens for the 5:45pm to 9:30pm window where there is most of the sales on a Thursday night.  Given staffing problems, many theaters will probably just drop that 11pm showing unless there is clear demand for it.  

 

To give an example, locally I only have nine showings so far starting at 10pm or later and only one after 11pm.   

 

More to the point, even if one squeezes in 4pm-5pm showings and 10pm-11pm showings, those simply aren't gonna get as many sales as ones between 5pm-6pm and 9pm-10pm, never mind 6pm-7pm and 8pm-9pm.

 

EDIT:::

 

As another data point, I think @DAJK was obliquely referring to this when he said this last night in the NTTD thread:

Really slow day at work so here's a breakdown of NTTD preview shows by hour:

 

4:00	1527	18.88%
4:01-4:59	660	8.16%
5:00-5:59	953	11.78%
6:00-6:59	846	10.46%
7:00-7:59	1729	21.38%
8:00-8:59	1250	15.46%
9:00-9:59	695	8.59%
10:00-10:59	357	4.41%
11:00+	70	0.87%

*4.68 shows per theater

 

And for the fun of it, here's Venom 2:

 

4:00	1924	13.90%
4:01-4:59	1321	9.55%
5:00-5:59	1580	11.42%
6:00-6:59	1997	14.43%
7:00-7:59	2779	20.08%
8:00-8:59	1286	9.29%
9:00-9:59	1755	12.68%
10:00-10:59	1044	7.54%
11:00+	152	1.10%

*5.77 shows per theater

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 9/16/2021 at 9:41 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales*	% Sold
T-0	Copshop	Jacksonville	5	9	862	9	4	1.04%
		Phoenix	6	18	1,739	18	15	1.04%
		Raleigh	7	14	1,462	5	2	0.34%
	Copshop Total		18	41	4,063	32	21	0.79%
T-1	Cry Macho	Jacksonville	5	29	3,537	32	28	0.90%
		Phoenix	7	38	4,282	77	69	1.80%
		Raleigh	8	44	5,352	76	44	1.42%
	Cry Macho Total		20	111	13,171	185	141	1.40%
T-14	Venom 2	Jacksonville	5	49	8,348	134	25	1.61%
		Phoenix	6	46	8,738	198	33	2.27%
		Raleigh	7	32	4,286	130	23	3.03%
	Venom 2 Total		18	127	21,372	462	81	2.16%

*New sales since Tuesday morning

 

Copshop is 14 tickets behind Queenpins, which didn't even report.  Don't think I need more analysis than that.

 

Cry Macho really picked up since Tuesday; maybe there is some hope for it.

 

Cry Macho T-1 comps

Malignant - 1.057x (2.1m)

Reminiscence - 2.53x (1.72m)

Hitman's Wife 2 - 1.9x (1.55m)

Stillwater - 3.93x (1.1m)

 

Average - 1.62m

 

Venom 2 had a good couple of days as well.  

 

Venom 2 T-14 comps

TSS - 1.87x (7.67m)

F9 - .81x (5.75m)

SC - .73x (6.39m)

 

Average - 6.6m

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-0	Cry Macho	Jacksonville	6	35	4,071	88	56	2.16%
		Phoenix	7	40	4,392	110	33	2.50%
		Raleigh	8	44	5,352	118	42	2.20%
	Cry Macho Total		21	119	13,815	316	131	2.29%
T-13	Venom 2	Jacksonville	6	66	10,155	161	27	1.59%
		Phoenix	6	46	8,738	225	27	2.57%
		Raleigh	7	32	4,286	147	17	3.43%
	Venom 2 Total		19	144	23,179	533	71	2.30%
T-6	Dear Evan Hansen	Jacksonville	5	6	827	24	24	2.90%
		Phoenix	5	8	1,651	21	21	1.27%
		Raleigh	6	7	896	21	21	2.34%
	Dear Evan Hansen Total		16	21	3,374	66	66	1.96%

 

Cry Macho comps

Malignant - .68x (1.36m)

Reminiscence - 2.4x (1.63m)

HWB2 - 1.8x (1.46m)

 

Average - 1.48m

 

Venom 2 comps

TSS - 2x (8.18m)

F9 - .83x (5.9m)

SC - .75x (6.6m)

 

Average - 6.9m

 

Dear Evan Hansen comp

In the Heights - .725x (725k)