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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Venom 2 Previews (T-13)

MTC1 - 24202/525579 414738.70 2488 shows

MTC2 - 16842/533779 234201.89 3330 shows

 

Its starting to amp up for sure. Its PS I feel will finish ahead of F9 at this rate. That should guarantee at least 7m previews.  

MTC2 is about par Shang Chi while MTC1 is 66%. Overall 81% of SC Nationwide, but SC was only on sale for 5 days vs 9 days for Venom.

 

Will have to dig up F9 and TSS comps, but $6.5-7M is likely.

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29 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think this also will see most action close to release considering its audience skew older. 

 

Still here you go

 

No time to Die Previews (T - 20)

MTC1 - 10832/366934 195333.30 1789 shows

MTC2 - 4686/305867 64804.72 1880 shows

 

Not a bad start especially at MTC1 but real action will start late. I think this will open above 60m. 

This is a solid start but I guess also may be deflated by the IMAX shows on 6th October. Better than Venom in MTC1 but lag behind in MTC2. ATP is high so very PLF heavy. 

 

I guess need to check F9 comp for this one but then IMAX shows on 6th are a pickle. Need to see it for few more days.

 

Spectre THU was less than 20% of OD. 6 years of previews inflation, I suppose NTTD should be around 25% at least. Can see $70M OW, this is the first Bond movie I am gonna track, I need to see for few more days to be certain.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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8 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Time to Die Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 47 1690 2.78%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 69 1610 4.29%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 7+ HOURS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
195 195 16853 1.16% 15 97

 

AMCs sold 163
Cinemarks sold 11
Regals sold 21
Harkins 0

 

Black Widow first 7 hours comp: 4.30M

 

Solid start to presales. 1.49x Venom's first 6ish hours. Almost half of Shang-Chi's first 17 hours. I'll do another update and Megaplex update later tonight.

No Time to Die Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 62 1690 3.67%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 81 1610 5.03%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 8+ HOURS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
254 59 16853 1.51% 15 97

 

AMCs sold 216
Cinemarks sold 11
Regals sold 27
Harkins sold 0

 

Wednesday: 

Total 9 1429

 

Black Widow Day One comp(18 hours): 4.51M

Shang-Chi Day One comp(17 hours): 5.57M

 

Quite a contrast from Megaplex in those Wednesday showings. Guess people aren't really aware of it in Denver. But still looking good after about 16 hours. It's at 1.44x Venom's first 13 hours now.

Edited by Inceptionzq
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No Time To Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 Days and Counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

132

19954

20231

277

1.37%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

277

 

Day One Comp           

 

   %

 

Sold Day 1

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

F9 

70.48

 

393

393

 

0/82

12755/13148

2.99%

 

5.24m

COMP NOTE: The F9 Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Day One Adjusted Comp

 

   %

 

Sold Day 1

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

AQP II 

172.50

 

160

160

 

1/28

1189/1343

11.92%

 

8.67m

NTTD (adj)

---

 

276

276

 

0/132

19805/20081

1.37%

 

---

COMP NOTE: The AQP II Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX showings which were not tracked at that time.

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

 

Regal: 73/6648 [1.10% sold]

 

===

 

Not really in love with CBM comps as I think these are gonna have pretty different sale patterns.  Also really don't like using AQP II, but it's the only other non-CBM I have at the moment that I even think is worth a darn. And that one is by the skin of its teeth.

 

FWIW, if I were to comp CBMs, NTTD did:

 

Day One Comps:

25.44% of Black Widow (3.52m) (adj as noted above)

155.62% of The Suicide Squad (6.54m)

50.00% of Shang-Chi (4.4m)

79.60% of Venom 2 (???)

 

So, yeah.  I'll pass on the CBMs for now.

 

Also, FWIW, it did 120% of the first day of sales locally for the first attempt at sales for No Time to Die last March (276 vs 230).  So a stronger Day 1 in that respect, which might be expected given the compressed calendar, but still says something.

 

Either way, not an amazeballs day, but a good enough of one, I think.  Coming days will tell the tale more on just how backloaded this is.

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On 9/16/2021 at 11:53 PM, Porthos said:

 

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 Days and Counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

153

24915

25793

878

3.40%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

85

 

T-14 Comp           VERY LOL-TASTIC FOR SOME - USE AT OWN RISK

 

   %

 

Sold T-14

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

F9 

90.61

 

71

969

 

0/91

13181/14150

6.85%

 

6.74m

TSS

270.99

 

7

324

 

0/81

13628/13952

2.32%

 

11.38m

SC

90.80

 

121

967

 

0/101

16035/17002

5.69%

 

7.99m

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Venom 2's tickets have been on sale for five days more than Shang-Chi while F9 was on sale for one more day than Venom 2

COMP NOTE: The F9 Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955). Neither the TSS nor the SC Comp have been adjusted.

 

T-14 Adjusted Comp            FAIRLY LOL-TASTIC - USE AT OWN RISK

 

   %

 

Sold T-14

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

BW 

33.78

 

106

2487

 

0/117

16647/19134

13.00%

 

4.67m

V2 (adj)

---

 

75

840

 

0/139

22793/23633

3.55%

 

---

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Black Widow's tickets have been on sale for five days more than Venom 2.

COMP NOTE: The BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: V2 (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

 

Regal: 187/7375 [2.54% sold] [+9 tickets]

 

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 Days and Counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

155

24891

25861

970

3.75%

 

Total Showings Added Today

2

Total Seats Added Today

68

Total Seats Sold Today

92

 

T-13 Comp           VERY LOL-TASTIC FOR TSS - USE AT OWN RISK

 

   %

 

Sold T-13

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

TSS

286.98

 

14

338

 

0/81

13614/13952

2.42%

 

12.05m

SC

91.17

 

97

967

 

0/101

15938/17002

6.26%

 

8.02m

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Venom 2's tickets have been on sale for five days more than Shang-Chi 

 

T-13 Adjusted Comp           

 

   %

 

Sold T-13

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

F9

94.30

 

48

983

 

0/79

11432/12415

7.92%

 

7.01m

BW 

36.15

 

77

2564

 

0/117

16570/19134

13.40%

 

5.00m

V2 (adj)

---

 

87

927

 

0/141

22774/23701

3.91%

 

---

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Black Widow's tickets have been on sale for five days more than Venom 2 while F9 was on sale for one more day than Venom 2

COMP NOTE:  Both the BW and the F9 comps has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: V2 (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's and F9's track.

 

Regal: 202/7375 [2.54% sold] [+15 tickets]

 

====

 

Strong day in Sacto.  Strong enough that the Shang-Chi comp actually went up despite SC still being in its initial-ish stage of sales (day 5 of sales for SC for the record).

 

I'm thiiiiiiiiiis close to nuking the The Suicide Squad comp until T-2 or so, as it really is getting ridiculous.  F9 and BW comps also went up, ftr.

 

Dunno if it's the WOM from the fan screenings or just a sign that this was indeed backloaded, but it's picking up a nice head of steam.  I do expect a bit of a dip over the weekend, though, as that's traditionally a fairly weak time for sales this far out.  Either way, very nice day locally for :Venom:

Edited by Porthos
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4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

SC 3rd Friday Final

MTC1 -  88588/708659 1273495.28 3921 shows

MTC2 - 77145/630428 873463.02 4344 shows

 

Excellent hold especially at MTC2. I think @charlie Jatinder is on the money with his friday number.

So this means the biggest 3rd weekend since SW9, one more good hold next week and BB4L should go down sometime around Venom weekend 

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17 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
T-13 Venom 2 Jacksonville 6 66 10,155 161 27 1.59%
    Phoenix 6 46 8,738 225 27 2.57%
    Raleigh 7 32 4,286 147 17 3.43%
  Venom 2 Total   19 144 23,179 533 71 2.30%
T-6 Dear Evan Hansen Jacksonville 5 6 827 24 24 2.90%
    Phoenix 5 8 1,651 21 21 1.27%
    Raleigh 6 7 896 21 21 2.34%
  Dear Evan Hansen Total   16 21 3,374 66 66 1.96%

 

Venom 2 comps

TSS - 2x (8.18m)

F9 - .83x (5.9m)

SC - .75x (6.6m)

 

Average - 6.9m

 

Dear Evan Hansen comp

In the Heights - .725x (725k)

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
T-12 Venom 2 Jacksonville 6 67 10,218 171 10 1.67%
    Phoenix 6 46 8,738 256 31 2.93%
    Raleigh 7 34 4,390 164 17 3.74%
  Venom 2 Total   19 147 23,346 591 58 2.53%
T-19 No Time to Die Jacksonville 6 58 9,950 78 78 0.78%
    Phoenix 6 28 4,967 50 50 1.01%
    Raleigh 7 30 3,725 75 75 2.01%
  No Time to Die Total   19 116 18,642 203 203 1.09%
T-5 Dear Evan Hansen Jacksonville 5 6 827 23 -1 2.78%
    Phoenix 5 8 1,651 21 0 1.27%
    Raleigh 6 7 896 19 -2 2.12%
  Dear Evan Hansen Total   16 21 3,374 63 -3 1.87%

 

No time to analysis this morning, but still wanted to post my numbers.  Have a great weekend!

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NYC Local Regal

 

Venom 2:  40/2766   1.45%  (Day 11)

 

32% of SC /  $2.85m

 

Again, SC wildly over performed here.  I won't have any other comps until next week and not great ones.   Joker was very pre-sale heavy like SC and SS was pfft in pre sales.

 

Bond: 13/1154   1.11%  (Day 2)

 

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Dear Evan Hansen:

7:00 Dolby: 20/236

8:00: 5/107

Total: 25/343

 

Comps:

 

41% of ITH Friday four days out (1.6M assuming ITH's Friday was 3.7M)

108% of ITH Thursday the day of (1.4M assuming ITH's Thursday was 1.3M)

114% of Jungle Cruise five days out (3.1M)

 

These numbers put DEH at the higher end of its tracking. I'm not buying sub-10M right now as much as some of you want it to happen.

 

Venom 2:

4:00 Dolby: 6/236

4:30 3D: 0/67

5:00: 0/107

6:00 IMAX: 0/372

6:30 Dolby: 18/236

7:00 3D: 0/67

7:30: 2/107

8:30 IMAX: 1/372

9:00 Dolby: 13/236

Total: 38/1,800

 

Comps:

 

11% of Black Widow the day before (1.5M)

24% of Shang-Chi six days out (2.1M)

29% of F9 three days out (2M)

35% of AQP2 two days out (1.7M)

67% of The Suicide Squad five days out (2.7M)

 

Suicide Squad is going to be the benchmark for tracking this imo. My comps are all closer to release, but I wouldn't necessarily say these are strong sales for something like Venom. If it doesn't pass Suicide Squad by 20-30% next week, I'd be concerned about a sub-45M opening.

 

No Time to Die:

4:00 IMAX: 1/372

5:00 Dolby: 6/236

7:00: 2/107

8:00 IMAX: 2/372

9:00 Dolby: 20/236

Total: 31/1,323

 

The fact this has nearly beat Venom's current sales says A LOT, especially with that late skew.

 

TLDR: No Time to Die is looking VERY well, DEH is looking better than you want it to, and Venom isn't looking hot.

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Didn’t have high hopes for NTTD, but these sales are kind of popping off. Is there maybe a more dedicated fan base than assumed — Spectre’s PS run could be a clue if we have any data for it.  
 

If not, could be cool to see this take down F7 and maybe even go higher on the charts.

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1 hour ago, Legion of the Ten Crores said:

Didn’t have high hopes for NTTD, but these sales are kind of popping off. Is there maybe a more dedicated fan base than assumed — Spectre’s PS run could be a clue if we have any data for it.  
 

If not, could be cool to see this take down F7 and maybe even go higher on the charts.

That seems pretty ambitious just based on the first day. Bond definitely has a fan base. Probably more so than V2 actually.

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15 minutes ago, Menor said:

That seems pretty ambitious just based on the first day. Bond definitely has a fan base. Probably more so than V2 actually.

70 didn’t seem that ambitious? Spectre was so long ago it’s a dubious IM comp but I guess off the cuff I’m expecting like, x9? 
 

But yeah, I could see a larger day 1 buying core group of invested than venom has, so let’s see how the next few days progress.

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4 minutes ago, Legion of the Ten Crores said:

70 didn’t seem that ambitious? Spectre was so long ago it’s a dubious IM comp but I guess off the cuff I’m expecting like, x9? 
 

But yeah, I could see a larger day 1 buying core group of invested than venom has, so let’s see how the next few days progress.

Oh, I guess you meant F9. Your post says F7. In that case, yeah. I think it has a good shot. 

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2 hours ago, Menor said:

That seems pretty ambitious just based on the first day. Bond definitely has a fan base. Probably more so than V2 actually.

That's what I am wondering. Sacto $5M comp for NTTD is weird because it beat Venom 2 day 1 nationwide, so was thinking $7M+.

 

However Spectre previews were just $5M, which doesn't spell high presales.

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Yeah i don't think Bond have a very rushed fanbase, it never had. Spectre have a 14x from previews.

 

I do think this time will be more frontloaded but probably not much. If it does get 7M previews (which i think is possible considering it was never presale heavy), 75-80M can happen, which would be impressive.

 

Even if it end up with "just" 5-5.5M, it's probably enough for 60M OW. I'm curious if this will actually opened higher than Venom 2.

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