The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[WrathOfHan]

21 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Yeah i don't think Bond have a very rushed fanbase, it never had. Spectre have a 14x from previews.

 

I do think this time will be more frontloaded but probably not much. If it does get 7M previews (which i think is possible considering it was never presale heavy), 75-80M can happen, which would be impressive.

 

Even if it end up with "just" 5-5.5M, it's probably enough for 60M OW. I'm curious if this will actually opened higher than Venom 2.

I think it will. I've always thought that, but tracking an 18-24-skewing theater, the early presales can't be ignored imo.

Edited September 19, 2021 by WrathOfHan

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric and the Ten Rings said:

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	89	675	19404	3.48%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 42

 

Comp

0.860x of F9 T-13 (6.1M)

0.353x of Black Widow T-13 (4.65M)

2.454x of The Suicide Squad T-13 (10.06M)

0.717x of Shang-Chi T-13 (6.31M)

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	89	707	19404	3.64%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 32

 

Comp

0.836x of F9 T-12 (5.93M)

0.349x of Black Widow T-12 (4.61M)

2.372x of The Suicide Squad T-12 (9.73M)

0.723x of Shang-Chi T-12 (6.36M)

[filmlover]

I've been looking at the sales for Bond across Thursday through that weekend around where I am so far and the large screen formats are doing great, but all of the regular shows (which there are obviously a lot more of) are pretty dead so far. Given how much of an old-skewing franchise Bond is and how that demographic still hasn't come back to theaters for, well, anything throughout the pandemic, the question of whether this will be what brings them back is what will be the elephant in the room (though that'll be answered when the demographic data comes out at the end of the opening weekend).

5 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

These numbers put DEH at the higher end of its tracking. I'm not buying sub-10M right now as much as some of you want it to happen.

FWIW I've had it opening to $10-12M for a while now, which is likely what it would have also opened to in a pandemic-free environment as a musical that never seemed to generate any real excitement or positive buzz (at least In the Heights actually looked like a hit). The real question is: how will Ben Platt react to not even being able to beat a 4-week old movie (since Shang-Chi is almost certain to post a higher number next weekend)? 

Edited September 19, 2021 by filmlover

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric and the Ten Rings said:

No Time to Die Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-20 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	68	324	14170	2.29%

 

Comp

0.608x of F9 T-20 (4.31M)

0.220x of Black Widow T-20 (2.91M)

0.397x of Black Widow's First Day of Presales (5.25M)

1.705x of The Suicide Squad T-20 (6.99M)

0.635x of Shang-Chi's First Day of Presales (5.59M)

 

This may not seem amazing when looking at comps (though remember that some of them had more days of presales to generate tickets), but this is actually really strong. By comparison, Venom 2 only saw 229 tickets on its first day of presales, while having far more showtimes. So assuming Venom 2 doesn't beef it, which is looking less and less likely, we have two great weekends ahead of us.

No Time to Die Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-19 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	68	393	14170	2.77%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 69

 

Comp

0.626x of F9 T-19 (4.44M)

0.261x of Black Widow T-19 (3.44M)

0.415x of Black Widow's Second Day of Presales (5.48M)

1.926x of The Suicide Squad T-19 (7.9M)

0.557x of Shang-Chi's Second Day of Presales (4.9M)

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

No Time To Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	132	19954	20231	277	1.37%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

277

 

Day One Comp           

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	70.48		393	393		0/82	12755/13148	2.99%		5.24m

COMP NOTE: The F9 Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Day One Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II	172.50		160	160		1/28	1189/1343	11.92%		8.67m
NTTD (adj)	---		276	276		0/132	19805/20081	1.37%		---

COMP NOTE: The AQP II Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX showings which were not tracked at that time.

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

 

Regal: 73/6648 [1.10% sold]

 

===

 

Not really in love with CBM comps as I think these are gonna have pretty different sale patterns.  Also really don't like using AQP II, but it's the only other non-CBM I have at the moment that I even think is worth a darn. And that one is by the skin of its teeth.

 

FWIW, if I were to comp CBMs, NTTD did:

 

Day One Comps:

25.44% of Black Widow (3.52m) (adj as noted above)

155.62% of The Suicide Squad (6.54m)

50.00% of Shang-Chi (4.4m)

79.60% of Venom 2 (???)

 

So, yeah.  I'll pass on the CBMs for now.

 

Also, FWIW, it did 120% of the first day of sales locally for the first attempt at sales for No Time to Die last March (276 vs 230).  So a stronger Day 1 in that respect, which might be expected given the compressed calendar, but still says something.

 

Either way, not an amazeballs day, but a good enough of one, I think.  Coming days will tell the tale more on just how backloaded this is.

 

No Time To Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	133	20265	20619	354	1.72%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	388
Total Seats Sold Today	77

 

Day Two Comp           

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	75.16		78	471		0/92	13512/13983	3.37%		5.59m

COMP NOTE: The F9 Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Day Two Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II	135.77		100	260		1/28	1083/1343	19.36%		6.82m
NTTD (adj)	---		77	353		0/133	20116/20469	1.72%		---

COMP NOTE: The AQP II Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX showings which were not tracked at that time.

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

 

Regal: 90/6648 [1.10% sold] [+17 tickets]

 

==

 

I don't know if I just missed it yesterday or if it got added today, but I found out that the local indie TrueIMAX theater has one of the Early Access Showings on Wed.  Was only 20 tickets sold though, so, eh.  No big deal either way, so I just added it to tonight's totals.

[Porthos]

On 9/17/2021 at 11:48 PM, Porthos said:

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	155	24891	25861	970	3.75%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	68
Total Seats Sold Today	92

 

T-13 Comp           VERY LOL-TASTIC FOR TSS - USE AT OWN RISK

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
TSS	286.98		14	338		0/81	13614/13952	2.42%		12.05m
SC	91.17		97	967		0/101	15938/17002	6.26%		8.02m

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Venom 2's tickets have been on sale for five days more than Shang-Chi 

 

T-13 Adjusted Comp           

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	94.30		48	983		0/79	11432/12415	7.92%		7.01m
BW	36.15		77	2564		0/117	16570/19134	13.40%		5.00m
V2 (adj)	---		87	927		0/141	22774/23701	3.91%		---

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Black Widow's tickets have been on sale for five days more than Venom 2 while F9 was on sale for one more day than Venom 2. 

COMP NOTE:  Both the BW and the F9 comps has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: V2 (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's and F9's track.

 

Regal: 202/7375 [2.54% sold] [+15 tickets]

 

====

 

Strong day in Sacto.  Strong enough that the Shang-Chi comp actually went up despite SC still being in its initial-ish stage of sales (day 5 of sales for SC for the record).

 

I'm thiiiiiiiiiis close to nuking the The Suicide Squad comp until T-2 or so, as it really is getting ridiculous.  F9 and BW comps also went up, ftr.

 

Dunno if it's the WOM from the fan screenings or just a sign that this was indeed backloaded, but it's picking up a nice head of steam.  I do expect a bit of a dip over the weekend, though, as that's traditionally a fairly weak time for sales this far out.  Either way, very nice day locally for 

 

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	155	24799	25861	1062	4.11%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

92

 

T-12 Comp         

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
SC	92.43		85	1149		0/101	15853/17002	6.76%		8.13m

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Venom 2's tickets have been on sale for five days more than Shang-Chi 

 

T-12 Adjusted Comp           

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	98.82		38	1021		0/79	11394/12415	8.22%		7.38m
BW	37.96		94	2658		0/119	16602/19260	13.80%		5.25m
V2 (adj)	---		82	1009		0/141	22692/23701	4.26%		---

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Black Widow's tickets have been on sale for five days more than Venom 2 while F9 was on sale for one more day than Venom 2. 

COMP NOTE:  Both the BW and the F9 comps has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: V2 (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's and F9's track.

 

Regal: 224/7375 [3.04% sold] [+22 tickets]

 

====

 

Choo choo, 🚋.   No Sat drop off for Venom 2 whatsoever. 

 

(also as threatened, The Suicide Squad comp has been nixed until much closer to release)

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	155	24799	25861	1062	4.11%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

92

 

T-12 Comp         

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
SC	92.43		85	1149		0/101	15853/17002	6.76%		8.13m

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Venom 2's tickets have been on sale for five days more than Shang-Chi 

 

One thing I should note about this Shang-Chi comp, and something we probably should keep in mind this coming week:  This coming Monday (T-10) was SC's review drop day, so the comp is gonna take a major hit at that time, and the days following it.  If I'm not mistaken, the review embargo Venom 2 is gonna be on the day of release, so the WOM from those fan screenings + whatever other marketing is going on is gonna have to do the heavy lifting until we get to week of release.

[CJohn]

Sony needs to spam marketing for this on the days leading up to the release. This might go under 50M OW if they don't.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 9/18/2021 at 9:34 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-12	Venom 2	Jacksonville	6	67	10,218	171	10	1.67%
		Phoenix	6	46	8,738	256	31	2.93%
		Raleigh	7	34	4,390	164	17	3.74%
	Venom 2 Total		19	147	23,346	591	58	2.53%
T-19	No Time to Die	Jacksonville	6	58	9,950	78	78	0.78%
		Phoenix	6	28	4,967	50	50	1.01%
		Raleigh	7	30	3,725	75	75	2.01%
	No Time to Die Total		19	116	18,642	203	203	1.09%
T-5	Dear Evan Hansen	Jacksonville	5	6	827	23	-1	2.78%
		Phoenix	5	8	1,651	21	0	1.27%
		Raleigh	6	7	896	19	-2	2.12%
	Dear Evan Hansen Total		16	21	3,374	63	-3	1.87%

 

No time to analysis this morning, but still wanted to post my numbers.  Have a great weekend!

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-11	Venom 2	Jacksonville	6	68	10,390	188	17	1.81%
		Phoenix	6	48	8,848	276	20	3.12%
		Raleigh	7	34	4,390	173	9	3.94%
	Venom 2 Total		19	150	23,628	637	46	2.70%
T-17	No Time to Die (Wed)	Jacksonville	2	2	841	4	4	0.48%
		Phoenix	1	1	410	0	0	0.00%
		Raleigh	1	1	151	29	29	19.21%
	No Time to Die (W) Total		4	4	1,402	33	33	2.35%
T-18	No Time to Die	Jacksonville	6	58	9,950	99	21	0.99%
		Phoenix	6	31	5,132	68	18	1.33%
		Raleigh	7	30	3,725	86	11	2.31%
	No Time to Die Total		19	119	18,807	253	50	1.35%
T-4	Dear Evan Hansen	Jacksonville	5	6	827	32	9	3.87%
		Phoenix	5	8	1,651	22	1	1.33%
		Raleigh	6	7	896	19	0	2.12%
	Dear Evan Hansen Total		16	21	3,374	73	10	2.16%

 

DEH has slowed tremendously.  It's tracking at about 43% of In the Heights (434k) really needs to pick up steam in the next few days to get anywhere near projections.

 

Venom 2 continues to increase against all of the comps I'm using for the fourth straight day.  

 

Comps

TSS - 2.166x (8.88m)

F9 - .855x (6.07m)

SC - .79x (6.95m)

 

Average - 7.3m

 

No Time to Die isn't looking as good in my areas as some of the other posters.  I'm hesitant to comp it to Black Widow with how insanely presale driven it was.  The only other movies I have tracked this far out are:

 

F9 - .549x (3.9m)

TSS - 1.068x (4.38m)

 

Average - 4.14m

 

The Wednesday IMAX showings will eat into the presales for Thursday, but it looks like it's only affecting Raleigh so far for these.  

[Krissykins]

5 hours ago, CJ Sarandos said:

Sony needs to spam marketing for this on the days leading up to the release. This might go under 50M OW if they don't.

They’ve been spamming it for about a month solid here in the UK already. And it’s not out here til the 15th. 

[keysersoze123]

No Time to Die Wedneday Early Shows

MTC1 - 2020/56244 38959.82 180 shows

MTC2 - 1314/11814 20892.75 55 shows

 

This could take away sales from thursday early on. I think it will sell 10x current number in MTC1 and may be 5x at MTC2. We could be looking at close to $1 million from early show(just 1 at Imax/PLF). Average ticket price for these shows will be very high as well. 

[Inceptionzq]

On 9/17/2021 at 4:17 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Venom 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

129

2151

6.00%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

81

2533

3.20%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
520	49	22577	2.30%	15	119

 

AMCs sold	363
Cinemarks sold	89
Regals sold	46
Harkins	22

 

Suicide Squad comp: 7.51M

Fast 9 comp: 7.14M

 

No Black Widow comp today.

Venom 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

166

2151

7.72%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

87

2533

3.43%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
650	130	22577	2.88%	15	119

 

AMCs sold	419
Cinemarks sold	115
Regals sold	65
Harkins sold	51

 

Shang-Chi comp: 7.11M

Black Widow comp: 4.65M

Fast 9 comp: 7.98M

 

Really good past 2 days. The Marvel fanbase is showing their presence with the acceleration past Fast 9. I'm taking out the Suicide Squad comp until the last few days of presales. May do the same with the F9 comp if it keeps going like this.

[Inceptionzq]

On 9/17/2021 at 4:30 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Venom 2 Megaplex

 

T-13 days Thursday: 351(+42)/19826

 

T-14 days Friday: 290(+27)/34273

 

Also no BW comp here.

Venom 2 Megaplex

 

T-11 days Thursday: 397(+46)/19826

 

Shang-Chi comp: 4.44M

Black Widow comp: 2.31M

 

T-12 days Friday: 348(+58)/34410(+137)

 

Shang-Chi comp: 12.96M

Black Widow comp: 6.03M

Edited September 20, 2021 by Inceptionzq

[Inceptionzq]

On 9/17/2021 at 10:51 PM, Inceptionzq said:

No Time to Die Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

62

1690

3.67%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

81

1610

5.03%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 8+ HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
254	59	16853	1.51%	15	97

 

AMCs sold	216
Cinemarks sold	11
Regals sold	27
Harkins sold	0

 

Wednesday: 

Total

9

1429

 

Black Widow Day One comp(18 hours): 4.51M

Shang-Chi Day One comp(17 hours): 5.57M

 

Quite a contrast from Megaplex in those Wednesday showings. Guess people aren't really aware of it in Denver. But still looking good after about 16 hours. It's at 1.44x Venom's first 13 hours now.

No Time to Die Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

76

1690

4.50%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

101

1610

6.27%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST ~2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
330	76	16853	1.96%	15	97

 

AMCs sold	268
Cinemarks sold	16
Regals sold	45
Harkins	1

 

Wednesday:

Total

15

1429

 

Shang-Chi day 3 comp: 5.24M

Black Widow day 3 comp: 4.67M

Fast 9 day 3 comp: 10.14M

 

1.27x Venom day 3 sales

[Inceptionzq]

On 9/17/2021 at 10:24 PM, Inceptionzq said:

No Time to Die Megaplex

 

T-19 days Wednesday: 92/1511 in 3 theaters

 

T-20 days Thursday: 236/18906 in 14 theaters

 

Shang-Chi Day One comp: 5.42M

2.25x Venom 2 Day One

 

T-21 days Friday: 279/36944 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi Day One comp: 26.74M

3.07x Venom 2 Day One

 

Wednesday and Friday look very strong already. Thursday looks good too. The demographics seem to already be showing with the strength of Friday.

No Time to Die Megaplex

 

T-17 days Wednesday: 125(+33)/1603 in 3 theaters

 

T-18 days Thursday: 355(+119)/18906 in 14 theaters

 

Shang-Chi day 3 comp: 5.67M

Black Widow comp: 2.64M

1.94x Venom day 3

 

T-19 days Friday: 387(+108)/36944 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi day 3 comp: 25.76M

Black Widow comp: 9.89M

2.29x Venom day 3

[LegendaryBen]

@WrathOfHan also a good comparison for DEH is Cruella (both PG-13).

[WrathOfHan]

27 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

@WrathOfHan also a good comparison for DEH is Cruella (both PG-13).

Cruella was a bit of a weird one at my theater. It massively underperformed with previews (DEH is currently 75% of its final total) but had strong sales throughout the weekend. It's a comp I use sparingly.

[charlie Jatinder]

I suggest you all to add WED shows in THU while comping NTDD as because those will be deflating THU.

[Eric Duncan]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I suggest you all to add WED shows in THU while comping NTDD as because those will be deflating THU.

I mean I'm combining those Wednesday shows to the Thursday total, as I'm assuming they will be rolled into the preview #

[Porthos]

17 minutes ago, Eric and the Ten Rings said:

I mean I'm combining those Wednesday shows to the Thursday total, as I'm assuming they will be rolled into the preview #

 

They almost always are, and I'm doing the same for the same reason.

 

(I'd say they always are, but maybe there's an edge case I'm not familiar with where they didn't)