The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric Duncan]

On 9/18/2021 at 11:27 PM, Eric and the Ten Rings said:

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	89	707	19404	3.64%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 32

 

Comp

0.836x of F9 T-12 (5.93M)

0.349x of Black Widow T-12 (4.61M)

2.372x of The Suicide Squad T-12 (9.73M)

0.723x of Shang-Chi T-12 (6.36M)

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	89	776	19404	4.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 69 😱

 

Comp

0.897x of F9 T-11 (6.37M)

0.369x of Black Widow T-11 (4.87M)

2.595x of The Suicide Squad T-11 (10.64M)

0.734x of Shang-Chi T-11 (6.46M)

[Eric Duncan]

On 9/18/2021 at 11:37 PM, Eric and the Ten Rings said:

No Time to Die Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-19 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	68	393	14170	2.77%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 69

 

Comp

0.626x of F9 T-19 (4.44M)

0.261x of Black Widow T-19 (3.44M)

0.415x of Black Widow's Second Day of Presales (5.48M)

1.926x of The Suicide Squad T-19 (7.9M)

0.557x of Shang-Chi's Second Day of Presales (4.9M)

No Time to Die Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-18 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	68	431	14170	3.04%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 38

 

Comp

0.665x of F9 T-18 (4.72M)

0.274x of Black Widow T-18 (3.62M)

0.407x of Black Widow's Third Day of Presales (5.38M)

2.023x of The Suicide Squad T-18 (8.3M)

[filmlover]

33 minutes ago, Eric and the Ten Rings said:

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 69 😱

[Porthos]

Bothernation. 

 

It's been bugging me that there wasn't a NTTD early access showing over at Century Arden and as I was thinking about keyzersoze123's post it suddenly occurred to me that Cinemark might be playing games once again.

 

Checked a few minutes ago, and sure enough, locally at least Cinemark is NOT selling tickets for its NTTD Early Access Wed shows on Fandango or on Atom.  Apparently they're only for sale on their corp site.  Again, at least locally.

 

Since I'm using Fandango nearly exclusively now (for about 95% of my searches), I didn't catch it 'till now.  Only will affect the comps going backward for the first two days, and it's only two showings (though a fair amount of tickets sold) so I don't really care about that.  But I thought I should mention it to any trackers who might not be using the Cinemark corp site to check ticket sales.

 

@katnisscinnaplex @Inceptionzq @Eric and the Ten Rings

 

(I don't know how many of y'all use the various corp sites or stick to the national ticket sellers, but I figured I should mention it just to be safe)

[Inceptionzq]

27 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Apparently they're only for sale on their corp site.

Never bothered to check since my Cinemarks don’t have IMAX. But they’re also doing XD. No showings here, for now at least, but thanks for the heads up

[Inceptionzq]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I suggest you all to add WED shows in THU while comping NTDD as because those will be deflating THU.

I haven’t yet because the sales for those showings after 4PM that day might throw off normal comps a bit. Since that time will be the “walkups” built into the comps for Thursday. So I was thinking it may be easier to estimate Wednesday and add that to the Thursday comp. But there’s a lot of variables, so in all honesty, it probably won’t really matter if the Wed numbers are added anyways.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

No Time To Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	133	20265	20619	354	1.72%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	388
Total Seats Sold Today	77

 

Day Two Comp           

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	75.16		78	471		0/92	13512/13983	3.37%		5.59m

COMP NOTE: The F9 Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Day Two Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II	135.77		100	260		1/28	1083/1343	19.36%		6.82m
NTTD (adj)	---		77	353		0/133	20116/20469	1.72%		---

COMP NOTE: The AQP II Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX showings which were not tracked at that time.

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

 

Regal: 90/6648 [1.10% sold] [+17 tickets]

 

==

 

I don't know if I just missed it yesterday or if it got added today, but I found out that the local indie TrueIMAX theater has one of the Early Access Showings on Wed.  Was only 20 tickets sold though, so, eh.  No big deal either way, so I just added it to tonight's totals.

 

No Time To Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	135	20500	20991	491	2.34%

 

Early Access Showings Added	2
Early Access Seats Added	372
Early Access Seats Sold	81

 

Total Seats Sold At All Other Showings Today

56

 

Day Three Comp           

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	89.44		78	549		0/92	13434/13983	3.93%		6.65m

COMP NOTE: The F9 Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Day Three Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II	159.61		47	307		2/28	1036/1343	22.86%		8.02m
NTTD (adj)	---		56	490		0/135	20351/20841	2.35%		---

COMP NOTE: The AQP II Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX showings which were not tracked at that time.

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

 

Regal: 99/6648 [1.49% sold] [+9 tickets]

 

===

 

As I commented up thread, I found out that once again Cinemark is making its Early Access shows exclusive to its corporate site. This caused both the F9 and AQP II comps to jump up by about 1m or so.

 

Went ahead and checked every last corp site (+Atom) just to make sure there aren't any other EA showings hiding out there.  Mercifully, there aren't any others.  But waay too many seats sold to add it to today's total without some sort of note.  

 

Since there was 80+ tickets added to the total, I'll re-run the CBM comps, this time for Day 3:

 

BW:    31.84% [4.40m] (adj)

TSS: 189.58% [7.96m]

SC:    58.04% [5.11m]

V2:    96.84% [???]

 

Better, but still not worth it for now, with the possible exception of Venom 2.  But since don't have a comp for that yet, it'll just have to wait 'till it comes in.  

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	155	24799	25861	1062	4.11%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

92

 

T-12 Comp         

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
SC	92.43		85	1149		0/101	15853/17002	6.76%		8.13m

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Venom 2's tickets have been on sale for five days more than Shang-Chi 

 

T-12 Adjusted Comp           

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	98.82		38	1021		0/79	11394/12415	8.22%		7.38m
BW	37.96		94	2658		0/119	16602/19260	13.80%		5.25m
V2 (adj)	---		82	1009		0/141	22692/23701	4.26%		---

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Black Widow's tickets have been on sale for five days more than Venom 2 while F9 was on sale for one more day than Venom 2. 

COMP NOTE:  Both the BW and the F9 comps has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: V2 (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's and F9's track.

 

Regal: 224/7375 [3.04% sold] [+22 tickets]

 

====

 

Choo choo, 🚋.   No Sat drop off for Venom 2 whatsoever. 

 

(also as threatened, The Suicide Squad comp has been nixed until much closer to release)

 

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	156	24909	26078	1169	4.48%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	217
Total Seats Sold Today	107

 

T-11 Comp         

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
SC	95.74		72	1221		0/101	15781/17002	7.18%		8.43m

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Venom 2's tickets have been on sale for five days more than Shang-Chi 

 

T-11 Adjusted Comp           

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	101.30		59	1080		0/79	11335/12415	8.70%		7.53m
BW	39.55		108	2766		0/119	16494/19260	14.36%		5.47m
V2 (adj)	---		85	1094		0/141	22607/23701	4.26%		---

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Black Widow's tickets have been on sale for five days more than Venom 2 while F9 was on sale for one more day than Venom 2. 

COMP NOTE:  Both the BW and the F9 comps has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: V2 (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's and F9's track.

 

Regal: 241/7375 [3.27% sold] [17 tickets]

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-11	Venom 2	Jacksonville	6	68	10,390	188	17	1.81%
		Phoenix	6	48	8,848	276	20	3.12%
		Raleigh	7	34	4,390	173	9	3.94%
	Venom 2 Total		19	150	23,628	637	46	2.70%
T-17	No Time to Die (Wed)	Jacksonville	2	2	841	4	4	0.48%
		Phoenix	1	1	410	0	0	0.00%
		Raleigh	1	1	151	29	29	19.21%
	No Time to Die (W) Total		4	4	1,402	33	33	2.35%
T-18	No Time to Die	Jacksonville	6	58	9,950	99	21	0.99%
		Phoenix	6	31	5,132	68	18	1.33%
		Raleigh	7	30	3,725	86	11	2.31%
	No Time to Die Total		19	119	18,807	253	50	1.35%
T-4	Dear Evan Hansen	Jacksonville	5	6	827	32	9	3.87%
		Phoenix	5	8	1,651	22	1	1.33%
		Raleigh	6	7	896	19	0	2.12%
	Dear Evan Hansen Total		16	21	3,374	73	10	2.16%

 

DEH has slowed tremendously.  It's tracking at about 43% of In the Heights (434k) really needs to pick up steam in the next few days to get anywhere near projections.

 

Venom 2 continues to increase against all of the comps I'm using for the fourth straight day.  

 

Comps

TSS - 2.166x (8.88m)

F9 - .855x (6.07m)

SC - .79x (6.95m)

 

Average - 7.3m

 

No Time to Die isn't looking as good in my areas as some of the other posters.  I'm hesitant to comp it to Black Widow with how insanely presale driven it was.  The only other movies I have tracked this far out are:

 

F9 - .549x (3.9m)

TSS - 1.068x (4.38m)

 

Average - 4.14m

 

The Wednesday IMAX showings will eat into the presales for Thursday, but it looks like it's only affecting Raleigh so far for these.  

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-10	Venom 2	Jacksonville	6	68	10,390	196	8	1.89%
		Phoenix	6	48	8,848	291	15	3.29%
		Raleigh	7	34	4,390	186	13	4.24%
	Venom 2 Total		19	150	23,628	673	36	2.85%
T-16	No Time to Die (Wed)	Jacksonville	3	3	1,046	25	21	2.39%
		Phoenix	1	1	410	2	2	0.49%
		Raleigh	1	1	151	37	8	24.50%
	NTTD (Wed) Total		5	5	1,607	64	31	3.98%
T-17	No Time to Die	Jacksonville	7	59	10,119	115	16	1.14%
		Phoenix	6	31	5,132	74	6	1.44%
		Raleigh	7	30	3,725	94	8	2.52%
	No Time to Die Total		20	120	18,976	283	30	1.49%
T-3	Dear Evan Hansen	Jacksonville	5	6	827	36	4	4.35%
		Phoenix	5	8	1,651	24	2	1.45%
		Raleigh	6	7	896	24	5	2.68%
	Dear Evan Hansen Total		16	21	3,374	84	11	2.49%

 

Evan Hansen comp from In the Heights keeps dropping, now to 420k.  While it seems that this probably isn't a realistic comp, I don't really have anything better.  It's also possible that ITH sales were inflated by unavailable seats; this was before I was using the page source to determine reserved seats vs unavailable, though its sales growth looks organic.  

 

Venom T-10 comps

TSS - 2.23x (9.14m)

F9 - .83x (5.91m)

SC - .78x (6.89m)

 

Avg - 7.315m

 

Thanks for the tip @Porthos, one of the three Cinemarks in my areas did have an early access show that I'll have to track via the corp site.

 

No Time to Die T-17 comps

F9 - .64x (4.56m)

TSS - 1.3x (5.35m)

 

Avg - 4.95m

[keysersoze123]

Venom 2 Previews(T-10)

MTC1 - 28633/527728 487995.31 2501 shows

MTC2 - 20061/536852 277621.25 3368 shows

 

Good growth since my update friday afternoon. Its definitely starting to ramp up. I dont have equivalent data for f9 but looking at T-5 data, I have no doubt Venom 2 will be ahead of F9 by then. MTC1 will be comfortably higher while MTC2 will be close. I think this will break out at this point. 

 

On 6/19/2021 at 1:02 PM, keysersoze123 said:

F9 Previews (T-5)

MTC1 - 36039/400144 524863.00 2215 shows(428 Theatres)

MTC2 - 31010/320850 426714.33 2307 shows(305 Theatres)

 

One word is meh. I dont remember what I posted for AQP2 but this cant be that far from that. Not good at all. What a fall from F7. 

 

On 9/17/2021 at 3:56 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Venom 2 Previews (T-13)

MTC1 - 24202/525579 414738.70 2488 shows

MTC2 - 16842/533779 234201.89 3330 shows

 

Its starting to amp up for sure. Its PS I feel will finish ahead of F9 at this rate. That should guarantee at least 7m previews.  

 

[john2000]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Venom 2 Previews(T-10)

MTC1 - 28633/527728 487995.31 2501 shows

MTC2 - 20061/536852 277621.25 3368 shows

 

Good growth since my update friday afternoon. Its definitely starting to ramp up. I dont have equivalent data for f9 but looking at T-5 data, I have no doubt Venom 2 will be ahead of F9 by then. MTC1 will be comfortably higher while MTC2 will be close. I think this will break out at this point. 

 

 

 

7,5 mill previews possible ?

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Venom 2 Previews(T-10)

MTC1 - 28633/527728 487995.31 2501 shows

MTC2 - 20061/536852 277621.25 3368 shows

F9 in MTC2 was 20k at same time. MTC 1 may be 24k ish.

 

However Venom will be more frontloaded due to being CBM, so I doubt if it can pull final day push of casual audience heavy film like F9.

[JWR]

What are the numbers for Dear Evan Hansen looking like?

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Venom 2 Previews(T-10)

MTC1 - 28633/527728 487995.31 2501 shows

MTC2 - 20061/536852 277621.25 3368 shows

Venom 2 Friday (T-11)

MTC1 - 19791/775005 334236.52 3683 shows

MTC2 - 17503/849840 222929.81 5394 shows

 

Venom 2 Saturday(T-12)

MTC1 - 13550/810553 207370.28 3863 shows

MTC2 - 13671/889944 163888.54 5632 shows

 

I would say its not bad at all looking at time left. Let us see at what point Friday PS overtakes previews PS. 

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

F9 in MTC2 was 20k at same time. MTC 1 may be 24k ish.

 

However Venom will be more frontloaded due to being CBM, so I doubt if it can pull final day push of casual audience heavy film like F9.

MY MTC2 data for F9 did not rationalize for dbox issues at that time. Actual number will be around 28K. Plus Venom 2 seem to have big advantage with average ticket prices. So it should be able to beat F9 final number at both MTC(MTC1 comfortably). 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Venom 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

166

2151

7.72%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

87

2533

3.43%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
650	130	22577	2.88%	15	119

 

AMCs sold	419
Cinemarks sold	115
Regals sold	65
Harkins sold	51

 

Shang-Chi comp: 7.11M

Black Widow comp: 4.65M

Fast 9 comp: 7.98M

 

Really good past 2 days. The Marvel fanbase is showing their presence with the acceleration past Fast 9. I'm taking out the Suicide Squad comp until the last few days of presales. May do the same with the F9 comp if it keeps going like this.

Venom 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

172

2151

8.00%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

93

2533

3.67%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
704	54	22577	3.12%	15	119

 

AMCs sold	448
Cinemarks sold	121
Regals sold	77
Harkins sold	58

 

Shang-Chi comp: 6.92M

Black Widow comp: 4.85M

Fast 9 comp: 8.26M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Venom 2 Megaplex

 

T-11 days Thursday: 397(+46)/19826

 

Shang-Chi comp: 4.44M

Black Widow comp: 2.31M

 

T-12 days Friday: 348(+58)/34410(+137)

 

Shang-Chi comp: 12.96M

Black Widow comp: 6.03M

Venom 2 Megaplex

 

T-10 days Thursday: 434(+37)/21066(+1240)

 

Shang-Chi comp: 4.31M

Black Widow comp: 2.45M

 

T-11 days Friday: 389(+41)/34410

 

Shang-Chi comp: 13.51M

Black Widow comp: 6.29M

 

Messed up yesterday's Black Widow Friday comp. Accidentally made it another Shang-Chi comp using BW's numbers

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Time to Die Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

76

1690

4.50%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

101

1610

6.27%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST ~2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
330	76	16853	1.96%	15	97

 

AMCs sold	268
Cinemarks sold	16
Regals sold	45
Harkins	1

 

Wednesday:

Total

15

1429

 

Shang-Chi day 3 comp: 5.24M

Black Widow day 3 comp: 4.67M

Fast 9 day 3 comp: 10.14M

 

1.27x Venom day 3 sales

No Time to Die Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

79

1690

4.67%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

112

1610

6.96%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
361	31	16853	2.14%	15	97

 

AMCs sold	285
Cinemarks sold	18
Regals sold	57
Harkins	1

 

Wednesday:

Total

23

1429

 

Shang-Chi day 4 comp: 4.91M

Black Widow day 4 comp: 4.69M

Fast 9 day 4 comp: 9.46M

 

1.25x Venom day 4 sales

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

MY MTC2 data for F9 did not rationalize for dbox issues at that time. Actual number will be around 28K. Plus Venom 2 seem to have big advantage with average ticket prices. So it should be able to beat F9 final number at both MTC(MTC1 comfortably). 

I had 20k at this time for F9 with DBOX adjustment. So Venom is indeed on par ticket wise right now as Charlie said. I also think Venom won't behave like a typical CBM. It seems to be more backloaded so far and I expect that to continue.

Edited September 20, 2021 by Menor

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Time to Die Megaplex

 

T-17 days Wednesday: 125(+33)/1603 in 3 theaters

 

T-18 days Thursday: 355(+119)/18906 in 14 theaters

 

Shang-Chi day 3 comp: 5.67M

Black Widow comp: 2.64M

1.94x Venom day 3

 

T-19 days Friday: 387(+108)/36944 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi day 3 comp: 25.76M

Black Widow comp: 9.89M

2.29x Venom day 3

No Time to Die Megaplex

 

T-16 days Wednesday: 137(+12)/1603 in 3 theaters

 

T-17 days Thursday: 409(+54)/18906 in 14 theaters

 

Shang-Chi day 4 comp: 5.85M

Black Widow comp: 2.95M

1.98x Venom day 4

 

T-18 days Friday: 437(+50)/36944 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi day 4 comp: 24.85M

Black Widow comp: 10.68M

2.23x Venom day 4